CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMarriott Center, Provo, UT
N Colorado
Efficiency #146
2025-26: 20-12 · 10-9 conf
@
BYU
Efficiency #26
2025-26: 23-12 · 11-10 conf
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
73.4
win 13%
Projected
86.2
win 87%
No line posted yet.
Model: BYU −12.8 · total 159.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: BYU 69.9, N Colorado 69.1 → 70.6 possessions
+5.0
BYU offense vs N Colorado defense
+7.5
N Colorado offense vs BYU defense
−1.2
Projected total
159.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
BYU offense vs N Colorado defense
+7.5
N Colorado offense vs BYU defense
+1.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
BYU by 12.8
12.8
N Colorado side ◂▸ BYU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 159.5 against a projected 159.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help BYU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, BYU is the faster team (70.4, #80 of 365) and N Colorado the slower (70.0, #92). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
159.6
model
Projected team totals
73.4 / 86.2
N Colorado / BYU
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.1#115
N Colorado
69.9#57
BYU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageBYU
Where BYU scores: ball control
BYU turns it over on 15.2% of possessions (#80); N Colorado forces turnovers on 12.4% of opponent possessions (#363). Expect about 13.1%, 3.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.5 points per 100 possessions.
ClashBYU
Style match: ball movement
BYU creates off the dribble (assists on 45.0% of its baskets); N Colorado breaks up passing offenses (assists on 37.9% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 38.2% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageN Colorado
Where N Colorado scores: shooting
N Colorado shoots an effective 55.7% (#24); BYU allows 51.2% (#174). Expect about 53.8%, 2.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
BYU averages 70.4 possessions per 40, N Colorado 70.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (N Colorado's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect N Colorado at about 40.8% of its shots from three, BYU about 36.8%.
GlassN Colorado
N Colorado gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.8% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against N Colorado's offense.
N Colorado has the ball
OffenseBYU allowsvs D1 avg
55.7% #24
51.2% #174
+3.6 pt/100
15.4% #98
16.4% #196
+1.2 pt/100
27.2% #288
29.6% #145
-1.6 pt/100
27.5% #348
28.9% #42
-0.9 pt/100
75.8% #59
—
+0.3 pt/100
N Colorado net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.7 pts/100
BYU has the ball
OffenseN Colorado allowsvs D1 avg
54.4% #54
50.1% #106
+1.7 pt/100
15.2% #80
12.4% #363
+4.5 pt/100
34.3% #61
24.2% #6
-0.2 pt/100
34.4% #198
38.8% #280
+0.2 pt/100
74.7% #94
—
+0.2 pt/100
BYU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
N Coloradooffense vsBYUdefense
Share of shots by zone
N Colorado shoots
BYU allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim63.7%#4261.2%#27458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.3%#9535.4%#7039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)48.3%#141.0%#27638.0%
Three35.0%#12135.3%#26933.7%
BYUoffense vsN Coloradodefense
Share of shots by zone
BYU shoots
N Colorado allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim65.4%#1756.7%#10758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.5%#16433.9%#4339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.0%#2646.7%#35738.0%
Three34.5%#14530.7%#2833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
N Colorado
−3.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#328 of 365
Off reb %
27.2%
#288
Def reb %
75.8%
#6
Turnover %
15.4%
#98
Forced TO %
12.4%
#363
FT rate
27.5%
#348
FT allowed
38.8%
#280
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding+2.1
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−2.9
Foul shots drawn−1.9
Foul shots allowed−0.9
BYU
+3.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#38 of 365
Off reb %
34.3%
#61
Def reb %
70.4%
#145
Turnover %
15.2%
#80
Forced TO %
16.4%
#196
FT rate
34.4%
#198
FT allowed
28.9%
#42
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.3
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+1.6

BYU has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.9 (#38 of 365) to N Colorado’s −3.8 (#328).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

N Colorado2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted N Colorado's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
8Zach BlochGSr6'2"32-3232.511.52.52.31.059.2%42.9%6.879.2%18.3%
35Quinn DenkerGSr6'3"30-3034.319.25.17.02.354.0%34.6%4.481.3%31.1%
14Brock WisneFSr6'9"31-3132.016.26.42.72.460.4%33.8%2.671.3%27.7%
54Ibu YamazakiFJr6'7"32-3027.19.93.60.81.054.5%36.2%5.490.9%20.1%
7Ring NyeriFSo6'8"32-2425.88.56.30.60.959.2%35.3%2.162.2%17.8%
1Vincent DelanoGSo6'2"32-420.16.12.01.61.248.5%28.7%2.571.7%20.4%
33Egan ShieldsCSo6'10"31-517.56.34.80.91.065.8%—0.070.0%18.4%
3Ariik MawienGSo6'4"31-48.93.42.00.40.650.5%23.3%1.457.9%25.6%
10Tanner BraketaGFr6'1"12-07.52.70.70.50.264.0%38.1%1.8—17.0%
4Hunter CaldwellCSo6'10"13-05.82.70.80.40.370.0%46.7%1.2—21.8%
11Chancellor WhiteGJr6'6"6-09.04.51.80.50.850.0%30.0%1.788.9%30.0%
21William HumerFSr6'10"4-010.82.33.81.31.040.9%33.3%0.80.0%20.7%
0Walker AspFSo6'8"3-05.71.01.00.30.350.0%50.0%0.7—13.1%
2Kaden EricksenGJr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
5Steven Ramirez Jr.GFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Will Dixion IIIGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
N ColoradoBYU
Efficiency
110.7
118.2
109.4
104.5
69.1
69.9
—
—
Shooting
55.7%
54.4%
58.1%
56.2%
35.0%
34.5%
75.8%
74.7%
27.5%
34.4%
Ball control & glass
15.4%
15.2%
12.4%
16.4%
27.2%
34.3%
24.2%
29.6%
8.6%
8.9%
7.2%
8.1%
Style
41.5%
39.8%
47.9%
45.4%
8.2%
15.6%
53.3%
45.0%
26.0%
26.2%
Roster
3.08
2.08
6'5.6"
6'5.3"
—
47.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
N Colorado
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted N Colorado's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

BYU
Returning minutes: 47.4%Returning production: 37.8%
Lost
  • AJ Dybantsa 34.8 mpg, 25.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Kennard Davis Jr. 27.0 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Missouri
  • Richie Saunders 22.3 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Keba Keita 21.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Brody Kozlowski no D1 minutes last season
  • KJ Perry no D1 minutes last season
  • Nate Pickens no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 47% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.