CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceGentile Arena, Chicago, IL
Wichita St
Efficiency #60
2025-26: 24-12 · 14-6 conf
@
Loyola Chicago
Efficiency #309
2025-26: 9-24 · 5-15 conf
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
74.9
win 72%
Projected
68.2
win 28%
No line posted yet.
Model: WICH −6.6 · total 143.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Loyola Chicago 67.2, Wichita St 67.9 → 66.8 possessions
−3.3
Loyola Chicago offense vs Wichita St defense
−6.2
Wichita St offense vs Loyola Chicago defense
+4.3
Projected total
143.1
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Loyola Chicago offense vs Wichita St defense
−6.2
Wichita St offense vs Loyola Chicago defense
−4.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Wichita St by 6.6
6.6
Wichita St side ◂▸ Loyola Chicago side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 143.0 against a projected 143.1, and the margin steps add to −6.7 against −6.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Loyola Chicago.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Wichita St is the faster team (67.8, #211 of 365) and Loyola Chicago the slower (65.9, #299). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
143.1
model
Projected team totals
74.9 / 68.2
Wichita St / Loyola Chicago
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.9#218
Wichita St
67.2#271
Loyola Chicago

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageWichita St
Where Wichita St scores: ball control
Wichita St turns it over on 14.9% of possessions (#60); Loyola Chicago forces turnovers on 12.9% of opponent possessions (#357). Expect about 13.3%, 3.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageLoyola Chicago
Where Loyola Chicago struggles: shooting
Loyola Chicago shoots an effective 49.8% (#246); Wichita St allows 47.2% (#24). Expect about 48.4%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.2 points per 100 possessions.
GlassWichita St
Wichita St owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.4% is worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions for Wichita St's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Loyola Chicago's defense, Wichita St's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Wichita St at about 38.1% of its shots from three, Loyola Chicago about 42.7%.
ClashLoyola Chicago
Style clash: 3-point volume
Loyola Chicago takes 47.7% of its shots from three; Wichita St runs teams off the line (34.3% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 42.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashWichita St
Style clash: 3-point volume
Wichita St rarely shoots threes (33.8% of its shots); Loyola Chicago lets opponents take 44.3% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Wichita St has the ball
OffenseLoyola Chicago allowsvs D1 avg
49.4% #274
52.0% #214
-1.0 pt/100
14.9% #60
12.9% #357
+4.3 pt/100
38.0% #8
29.7% #146
+3.0 pt/100
36.0% #149
33.6% #143
-0.0 pt/100
69.2% #291
—
-0.3 pt/100
Wichita St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.0 pts/100
Loyola Chicago has the ball
OffenseWichita St allowsvs D1 avg
49.8% #246
47.2% #24
-4.2 pt/100
19.8% #343
15.7% #235
-1.3 pt/100
30.5% #179
28.8% #93
-0.5 pt/100
34.8% #188
34.3% #158
-0.1 pt/100
67.3% #340
—
-0.5 pt/100
Loyola Chicago net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Wichita Stoffense vsLoyola Chicagodefense
Share of shots by zone
Wichita St shoots
Loyola Chicago allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.4%#28854.2%#4358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.9%#17742.5%#23939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.4%#17439.3%#21238.0%
Three33.5%#19536.8%#34233.7%
Loyola Chicagooffense vsWichita Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Loyola Chicago shoots
Wichita St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.0%#19953.9%#3958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.2%#28435.5%#7339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.6%#13039.8%#23538.0%
Three31.7%#29631.5%#4433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Wichita St
+4.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#34 of 365
Off reb %
38.0%
#8
Def reb %
71.2%
#93
Turnover %
14.9%
#60
Forced TO %
15.7%
#235
FT rate
36.0%
#149
FT allowed
34.3%
#158
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.5
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security+1.3
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.2
Loyola Chicago
−3.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#329 of 365
Off reb %
30.5%
#179
Def reb %
70.3%
#146
Turnover %
19.8%
#343
Forced TO %
12.9%
#357
FT rate
34.8%
#188
FT allowed
33.6%
#143
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security−2.0
Forcing turnovers−2.6
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed+0.4

Wichita St has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.1 (#34 of 365) to Loyola Chicago’s −3.9 (#329).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Wichita St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Wichita St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Kenyon GilesGSr5'10"36-3636.319.12.61.41.351.2%37.8%9.283.1%31.5%
0Karon BoydFSr6'6"36-3633.810.95.81.61.649.2%35.1%3.663.8%21.2%
9Michael Gray Jr.GSr6'1"36-3626.98.23.32.31.343.0%31.1%4.685.9%21.8%
4TJ WilliamsGFr6'5"35-1622.08.75.01.51.346.8%8.3%0.368.3%26.4%
44Will BergCJr7'2"35-1021.98.88.10.71.155.9%0.0%0.169.0%22.5%
3Dre KindellGJr5'11"36-017.35.91.62.31.149.4%34.3%1.080.0%21.8%
20Emmanuel OkoraforFSr6'10"36-2616.96.35.20.41.157.0%—0.067.2%22.6%
8Dillon BattieFSo6'8"31-2017.47.64.70.70.956.9%18.8%0.561.4%24.4%
5Brian AmunekeGSo6'5"36-07.92.40.70.30.243.8%33.3%1.650.0%21.7%
2Jaret ValenciaFJr6'8"11-013.22.81.80.60.433.9%27.3%1.058.8%18.5%
22Noah HillFFr6'7"19-05.11.72.60.10.366.7%—0.028.6%19.9%
21Henry ThengvallFJr6'6"11-02.50.30.10.30.212.5%0.0%0.550.0%23.2%
12Joy IghovodjaGJr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11Pierre CouisnardGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Tyrus Rathan-MayesGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Wichita StLoyola Chicago
Efficiency
111.1
104.3
103.4
112.3
67.9
67.2
—
—
Shooting
49.4%
49.8%
49.0%
51.9%
33.5%
31.7%
69.2%
67.3%
36.0%
34.8%
Ball control & glass
14.9%
19.8%
15.7%
12.9%
38.0%
30.5%
28.8%
29.7%
8.7%
10.9%
8.3%
13.9%
Style
33.8%
47.7%
45.1%
41.0%
9.5%
10.2%
41.3%
60.8%
32.4%
30.4%
Roster
3.21
2.93
6'4.5"
6'5.4"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Wichita St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Wichita St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Loyola Chicago
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Loyola Chicago's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Thu, Nov 132025-26Loyola Chicago 74 – 95 Wichita St

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.