CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceUnited Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX

LSU N Orleans

Efficiency #221

2025-26: 15-18 · 13-11 conf

Texas Tech

Efficiency #21

2025-26: 23-11 · 12-7 conf

Wed, Nov 18 · TBD

69.0

win 9%

Projected

84.6

win 91%

No line posted yet.

Model: TTU −15.6 · total 153.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Texas Tech 67.5, LSU N Orleans 69.8 → 69.0 possessions

+1.5

Texas Tech offense vs LSU N Orleans defense

+7.8

LSU N Orleans offense vs Texas Tech defense

−3.9

Projected total

153.6

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Texas Tech offense vs LSU N Orleans defense

+7.8

LSU N Orleans offense vs Texas Tech defense

+3.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Texas Tech by 15.6

15.6

LSU N Orleans side ◂▸ Texas Tech side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +15.7 against +15.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Texas Tech.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, LSU N Orleans is the faster team (69.7, #107 of 365) and Texas Tech the slower (67.9, #206). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

153.6

model

Projected team totals

69.0 / 84.6

LSU N Orleans / Texas Tech

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.8#61

LSU N Orleans

67.5#250

Texas Tech

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageLSU N Orleans

Where LSU N Orleans struggles: shooting

LSU N Orleans shoots an effective 49.6% (#258); Texas Tech allows 49.7% (#86). Expect about 49.5%, 1.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageTexas Tech

Where Texas Tech scores: the offensive glass

Texas Tech rebounds 33.2% of its own misses (#82); LSU N Orleans lets opponents grab 34.5% of their own misses (#325). Expect about 34.4%, 4.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.

GlassLSU N Orleans

LSU N Orleans owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.2% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for LSU N Orleans's offense.

TurnoversTexas Tech

Texas Tech protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.0% is worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions for Texas Tech's offense.

ClashLSU N Orleans

Style match: 3-point volume

LSU N Orleans rarely shoots threes (33.7% of its shots); Texas Tech runs teams off the line (35.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.5% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Texas Tech) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect LSU N Orleans at about 32.5% of its shots from three, Texas Tech about 46.4%.

LSU N Orleans has the ball

OffenseTexas Tech allowsvs D1 avg

49.6% #258

49.7% #86

-2.5 pt/100

20.5% #353

14.8% #304

-1.0 pt/100

35.6% #34

30.6% #186

+2.3 pt/100

46.4% #1

31.4% #89

+0.4 pt/100

74.3% #114

—

+0.2 pt/100

LSU N Orleans net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.7 pts/100

Texas Tech has the ball

OffenseLSU N Orleans allowsvs D1 avg

56.1% #21

49.0% #71

+2.3 pt/100

15.8% #123

14.9% #302

+2.2 pt/100

33.2% #82

34.5% #325

+2.4 pt/100

27.7% #347

39.5% #296

-0.1 pt/100

71.5% #222

—

-0.1 pt/100

Texas Tech net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

LSU N Orleansoffense vsTexas Techdefense

Share of shots by zone

LSU N Orleans shoots

41.8

5.8

19.2

33.2

Texas Tech allows

31.6

10.7

22.4

35.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.9%#244	63.4%#331	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.8%#86	38.1%#140	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.4%#177	39.3%#213	38.0%
Three	31.8%#287	32.1%#67	33.7%

Texas Techoffense vsLSU N Orleansdefense

Share of shots by zone

Texas Tech shoots

25.6

9.7

16.7

48.1

LSU N Orleans allows

37.6

5.7

17.1

39.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.5%#46	54.3%#46	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.5%#33	36.9%#108	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.0%#56	41.2%#280	38.0%
Three	39.1%#4	32.4%#86	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

LSU N Orleans

−1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#256 of 365

Off reb %

35.6%

#34

Def reb %

65.5%

#325

Turnover %

20.5%

#353

Forced TO %

14.9%

#302

FT rate

46.4%

FT allowed

39.5%

#296

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.7

Defensive rebounding−1.2

Ball security−2.5

Forcing turnovers−1.3

Foul shots drawn+2.9

Foul shots allowed−1.1

Texas Tech

−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#202 of 365

Off reb %

33.2%

#82

Def reb %

69.4%

#186

Turnover %

15.8%

#123

Forced TO %

14.8%

#304

FT rate

27.7%

#347

FT allowed

31.4%

#89

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.9

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers−1.3

Foul shots drawn−1.9

Foul shots allowed+1.0

Texas Tech has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.6 (#202 of 365) to LSU N Orleans’s −1.5 (#256).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

LSU N Orleans2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted LSU N Orleans's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
22	Coleton Benson	G	Sr	6'2"	33-33	34.3	16.2	3.0	1.7	1.8	51.0%	35.9%	7.5	92.8%	26.5%
5	Jakevion Buckley	G	Sr	6'2"	32-29	33.9	13.8	4.7	5.6	4.1	43.2%	31.2%	2.9	77.1%	30.1%
23	MJ Thomas	F	So	6'8"	32-30	26.8	10.8	8.0	1.5	1.8	53.6%	66.7%	0.1	73.3%	23.7%
6	TJ Cope	G	Jr	6'7"	32-20	21.3	8.3	2.9	0.8	1.3	57.5%	24.1%	0.9	68.7%	21.5%
9	Churchill Abass	C	Jr	6'10"	33-27	20.1	8.4	5.7	0.5	1.6	63.1%	0.0%	0.1	56.7%	23.9%
25	Enzo Boudouma	F	Fr	6'9"	32-6	18.3	5.3	3.1	0.8	0.9	45.2%	27.0%	2.3	72.3%	18.9%
21	Kedrick Osby	F	Jr	6'7"	32-7	17.2	4.9	2.2	0.2	0.5	50.8%	40.0%	1.7	75.8%	16.9%
99	Panagiotis Pagonis	F	Fr	6'9"	30-7	17.6	4.1	3.1	1.0	0.7	39.8%	24.5%	1.6	72.0%	16.6%
3	Irish Coquia	G	Jr	6'2"	25-3	9.6	2.7	0.7	1.2	0.8	45.9%	34.1%	1.6	84.6%	20.8%
15	Jamal Chretien II	G	Fr	6'6"	14-3	9.1	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.2	36.4%	15.4%	0.9	75.0%	12.1%
11	Mathok Majok	C	Jr	7'4"	16-0	4.9	2.2	1.6	0.0	0.2	73.7%	—	0.0	53.8%	20.8%
0	Hercy Miller	G	Sr	6'3"	9-0	5.6	1.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	26.9%	0.0%	0.9	0.0%	36.3%
7	Grant Kemp	G	Sr	5'9"	7-0	4.9	1.3	1.1	0.6	0.4	18.2%	0.0%	0.4	71.4%	29.1%
20	William Patterson	C	So	7'2"	7-0	4.3	0.3	0.7	0.0	0.3	20.0%	—	0.0	—	13.0%
13	Vieux Sanneh	F	Fr	6'5"	2-0	6.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	14.6%
10	Eze Nwakamma	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Texas Tech2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Jaylen Petty	G	Fr	6'1"	33-22	30.4	9.9	3.9	2.2	0.9	53.3%	37.5%	5.6	77.1%	19.1%
3	LeJuan Watts	F	Jr	6'6"	33-28	27.3	11.8	6.0	2.4	2.5	47.5%	32.1%	2.4	76.9%	29.2%
15	JT Toppin	F	Jr	6'9"	25-25	34.8	21.8	10.8	2.1	2.5	56.7%	28.1%	2.3	57.9%	36.2%
1	Tyeree Bryan	G	Sr	6'5"	33-13	17.1	3.5	2.5	0.6	0.3	45.0%	28.6%	2.3	66.7%	13.6%
9	Luke Bamgboye	F	So	6'11"	21-12	16.5	4.5	3.4	0.5	0.6	50.8%	0.0%	0.1	71.1%	16.7%
6	Leon Horner	G	So	6'4"	23-0	9.0	2.8	2.0	0.2	0.3	50.0%	36.4%	0.5	86.7%	19.0%
5	Josiah Moseley	F	So	6'8"	14-0	13.9	5.5	3.6	0.5	0.6	71.6%	50.0%	0.4	36.4%	20.3%
8	Nolan Groves	G	Fr	6'5"	21-2	6.4	1.0	1.3	0.2	0.0	33.3%	23.5%	0.8	58.3%	11.6%
13	Marial Akuentok	F	Fr	6'11"	15-1	5.9	1.1	1.7	0.2	0.4	54.2%	100.0%	0.1	30.8%	15.9%
10	Jack Francis	G	Sr	6'3"	13-0	1.5	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	0.0%	8.9%
21	LaTrell Hoover	F	Fr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

LSU N Orleans2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted LSU N Orleans's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
22	Coleton Benson	G	Sr	6'2"	33-33	34.3	16.2	3.0	1.7	1.8	51.0%	35.9%	7.5	92.8%	26.5%
5	Jakevion Buckley	G	Sr	6'2"	32-29	33.9	13.8	4.7	5.6	4.1	43.2%	31.2%	2.9	77.1%	30.1%
23	MJ Thomas	F	So	6'8"	32-30	26.8	10.8	8.0	1.5	1.8	53.6%	66.7%	0.1	73.3%	23.7%
6	TJ Cope	G	Jr	6'7"	32-20	21.3	8.3	2.9	0.8	1.3	57.5%	24.1%	0.9	68.7%	21.5%
9	Churchill Abass	C	Jr	6'10"	33-27	20.1	8.4	5.7	0.5	1.6	63.1%	0.0%	0.1	56.7%	23.9%
25	Enzo Boudouma	F	Fr	6'9"	32-6	18.3	5.3	3.1	0.8	0.9	45.2%	27.0%	2.3	72.3%	18.9%
21	Kedrick Osby	F	Jr	6'7"	32-7	17.2	4.9	2.2	0.2	0.5	50.8%	40.0%	1.7	75.8%	16.9%
99	Panagiotis Pagonis	F	Fr	6'9"	30-7	17.6	4.1	3.1	1.0	0.7	39.8%	24.5%	1.6	72.0%	16.6%
3	Irish Coquia	G	Jr	6'2"	25-3	9.6	2.7	0.7	1.2	0.8	45.9%	34.1%	1.6	84.6%	20.8%
15	Jamal Chretien II	G	Fr	6'6"	14-3	9.1	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.2	36.4%	15.4%	0.9	75.0%	12.1%
11	Mathok Majok	C	Jr	7'4"	16-0	4.9	2.2	1.6	0.0	0.2	73.7%	—	0.0	53.8%	20.8%
0	Hercy Miller	G	Sr	6'3"	9-0	5.6	1.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	26.9%	0.0%	0.9	0.0%	36.3%
7	Grant Kemp	G	Sr	5'9"	7-0	4.9	1.3	1.1	0.6	0.4	18.2%	0.0%	0.4	71.4%	29.1%
20	William Patterson	C	So	7'2"	7-0	4.3	0.3	0.7	0.0	0.3	20.0%	—	0.0	—	13.0%
13	Vieux Sanneh	F	Fr	6'5"	2-0	6.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	14.6%
10	Eze Nwakamma	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

LSU N Orleans

Against the spread

Season

18-14-1

Home

7-4

Road

10-9-1

Last 10

6-3-1

avg cover +2.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

19-14

Home

9-2

Road

10-10

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −3.3

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 9	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #181	N	L 61–74	+2.0	L−11.0	147.5	U135	104.8	127.1	58.2
Mar 8	Hou ChristianAdjEM #297	N	W 73–60	−4.0	W+9.0	143.0	U133	103.3	84.9	70.7
Mar 2	SE LouisianaAdjEM #296	H	L 78–82	−7.0	L−11.0	144.0	O160	104.8	110.2	74.4
Feb 28	McNeeseAdjEM #49	H	L 63–66	+10.0	W+7.0	150.5	U129	97.5	102.1	64.6
Feb 23	SF AustinAdjEM #73	A	W 77–73	+11.5	W+15.5	152.0	U150	113.4	107.5	67.9
Feb 21	LamarAdjEM #236	A	W 77–71	+5.5	W+11.5	146.5	O148	109.8	101.3	70.1
Feb 16	Incarnate WordAdjEM #264	A	W 78–64	+2.0	W+16.0	153.5	U142	120.9	99.2	64.5
Feb 14	Hou ChristianAdjEM #297	A	L 60–61	+1.0	P0.0	149.0	U121	96.6	98.2	62.1
Feb 9	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #181	H	W 84–78 OT	+1.5	W+7.5	147.0	O162	96.5	89.6	87.1
Feb 7	UT Rio GrandeAdjEM #109	H	L 76–95	+1.5	L−17.5	151.0	O171	102.0	127.5	74.5

Texas Tech

Against the spread

Season

17-16-1

Home

9-7

Road

5-4-1

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −0.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-19

Home

8-8

Road

3-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −2.0

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	#4AlabamaAdjEM #18	N	L 65–90	+1.0	L−24.0	164.5	U155	93.8	129.9	69.3
Mar 20	#12AkronAdjEM #48	N	W 91–71	−6.5	W+13.5	154.0	O162	139.4	108.8	65.3
Mar 12	#7Iowa StateAdjEM #7	N	L 53–75	+5.5	L−16.5	143.5	U128	81.9	115.9	64.7
Mar 7	BYUAdjEM #26	A	L 76–82	+3.0	L−3.0	159.5	U158	124.8	134.6	60.9
Mar 3	TCUAdjEM #51	H	L 65–73	−8.0	L−16.0	148.5	U138	101.6	114.1	64.0
Feb 28	#4Iowa StateAdjEM #7	A	W 82–73	+9.5	W+18.5	145.0	O155	127.1	113.1	64.5
Feb 24	CincinnatiAdjEM #52	H	W 80–68	−6.5	W+5.5	143.5	O148	131.5	111.8	60.8
Feb 21	Kansas StAdjEM #128	H	W 100–72	−12.5	W+15.5	158.5	O172	144.9	104.3	69.0
Feb 17	Arizona StAdjEM #93	A	L 67–72	−7.5	L−12.5	155.5	U139	101.3	108.9	66.1
Feb 14	#1ArizonaAdjEM #3	A	W 78–75 OT	+9.5	W+12.5	156.0	U153	110.8	106.6	70.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

LSU N OrleansTexas Tech

Efficiency

108.2

117.7

110.5

103.2

69.8

67.5

—

Shooting

49.6%

56.1%

50.6%

53.9%

31.8%

39.1%

74.3%

71.5%

46.4%

27.7%

Ball control & glass

20.5%

15.8%

14.9%

14.8%

35.6%

33.2%

34.5%

30.6%

11.1%

8.9%

9.7%

7.7%

Style

33.7%

47.6%

42.7%

36.6%

12.4%

8.6%

52.5%

55.0%

31.8%

20.5%

Roster

2.84

2.40

6'5.9"

6'5.8"

—

63.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

LSU N Orleans

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted LSU N Orleans's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Texas Tech

Returning minutes: 63.4%Returning production: 60.4%

Lost

Christian Anderson 37.3 mpg, 18.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Donovan Atwell 34.7 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jazz Henderson Jr. 1.5 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Ball State

Added

LaTrell Hoover no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 63% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Nov 26	2025-26	LSU N Orleans 50 – 82 Texas Tech

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.