CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceThe Sobrato Center, San Francisco, CA
Louisiana
Efficiency #318
2025-26: 11-22 · 8-12 conf
@
San Francisco
Efficiency #148
2025-26: 17-16 · 9-11 conf
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
64.5
win 18%
Projected
74.9
win 82%
No line posted yet.
Model: SF −10.4 · total 139.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: San Francisco 67.4, Louisiana 65.6 → 64.7 possessions
−7.9
San Francisco offense vs Louisiana defense
+2.8
Louisiana offense vs San Francisco defense
−3.9
Projected total
139.4
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
San Francisco offense vs Louisiana defense
+2.8
Louisiana offense vs San Francisco defense
+3.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
San Francisco by 10.4
10.4
Louisiana side ◂▸ San Francisco side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 139.2 against a projected 139.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help San Francisco.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, San Francisco is the faster team (66.7, #256 of 365) and Louisiana the slower (64.1, #354). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
64.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
139.4
model
Projected team totals
64.5 / 74.9
Louisiana / San Francisco
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.6#353
Louisiana
67.4#261
San Francisco

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
San Francisco averages 66.7 possessions per 40, Louisiana 64.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageLouisiana
Where Louisiana struggles: shooting
Louisiana shoots an effective 47.1% (#334); San Francisco allows 50.8% (#143). Expect about 48.6%, 2.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.8 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversLouisiana
Louisiana protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.1% is worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions for Louisiana's offense.
ClashSan Francisco
Style clash: 3-point volume
San Francisco takes 46.1% of its shots from three; Louisiana runs teams off the line (36.2% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 42.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Louisiana has the ball
OffenseSan Francisco allowsvs D1 avg
47.1% #334
50.8% #143
-3.8 pt/100
16.8% #185
14.1% #330
+2.1 pt/100
28.3% #251
29.0% #105
-1.3 pt/100
28.7% #334
29.6% #51
-0.8 pt/100
70.4% #261
—
-0.2 pt/100
Louisiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.0 pts/100
San Francisco has the ball
OffenseLouisiana allowsvs D1 avg
51.2% #184
52.6% #247
+0.9 pt/100
15.8% #125
18.3% #85
-0.5 pt/100
31.3% #148
32.3% #272
+1.0 pt/100
40.1% #59
45.8% #352
+1.1 pt/100
70.9% #242
—
-0.1 pt/100
San Francisco net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Louisianaoffense vsSan Franciscodefense
Share of shots by zone
Louisiana shoots
San Francisco allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim51.4%#35259.3%#20558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.5%#9245.5%#31239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.6%#19735.0%#7838.0%
Three33.6%#18934.1%#18733.7%
San Franciscooffense vsLouisianadefense
Share of shots by zone
San Francisco shoots
Louisiana allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#22958.4%#16158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.5%#13243.5%#25939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.4%#27832.4%#2038.0%
Three34.6%#14035.6%#28633.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Louisiana
−4.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#338 of 365
Off reb %
28.3%
#251
Def reb %
67.7%
#272
Turnover %
16.8%
#185
Forced TO %
18.3%
#85
FT rate
28.7%
#334
FT allowed
45.8%
#352
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.6
Foul shots allowed−2.7
San Francisco
+2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#78 of 365
Off reb %
31.3%
#148
Def reb %
71.0%
#105
Turnover %
15.8%
#125
Forced TO %
14.1%
#330
FT rate
40.1%
#59
FT allowed
29.6%
#51
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers−1.8
Foul shots drawn+1.3
Foul shots allowed+1.5

San Francisco has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.5 (#78 of 365) to Louisiana’s −4.4 (#338).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Louisiana2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Louisiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3Dorian FinisterGJr6'5"31-3132.514.94.61.91.850.7%37.0%3.574.4%29.1%
6De'Vion LavergneGSo6'3"33-3030.39.93.32.81.542.9%30.5%4.071.0%25.5%
10Jaxon OlveraGSo6'5"33-2029.213.74.51.92.446.0%35.6%4.872.0%35.4%
24Milan MejiaGSr6'2"29-1922.03.61.30.70.545.2%32.0%3.333.3%12.6%
4Dariyus WoodsonFSr6'7"33-718.85.82.50.60.757.0%38.6%3.162.2%18.8%
2Todd Jones Jr.FSo6'9"33-2416.53.13.90.30.658.6%0.0%0.055.9%12.4%
8Karris BilalGFr6'3"21-520.85.62.00.40.437.5%26.5%2.378.9%20.1%
5Joshua LewisFFr6'7"18-1522.68.13.80.70.961.0%44.4%2.577.3%20.0%
0Jeremiah EvansFSo6'10"32-710.93.02.00.30.949.3%—0.070.7%20.8%
7Mike CollinsGFr6'1"31-29.21.40.71.00.325.0%8.0%0.863.2%17.4%
23Kyran RatliffFJr6'8"31-38.61.01.70.30.339.4%30.8%0.455.6%10.6%
14Jamyron KellerGJr6'3"2-229.517.02.03.01.543.3%30.8%6.566.7%41.8%
12Michael MoutonGSo6'4"6-02.50.30.20.30.025.0%—0.0—16.2%
13Christian LandryGJr6'5"2-01.50.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
22Logan MyersGFr6'3"2-01.50.00.00.00.00.0%—0.0—20.6%
—Rahman OlajuwonFSo6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
33Sean ElkintonFSr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Zeke CookFSr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
LouisianaSan Francisco
Efficiency
101.8
110.5
110.9
109.2
65.6
67.4
—
—
Shooting
47.1%
51.2%
44.8%
50.7%
33.6%
34.6%
70.4%
70.9%
28.7%
40.1%
Ball control & glass
16.8%
15.8%
18.3%
14.1%
28.3%
31.3%
32.3%
29.0%
7.8%
9.2%
8.0%
8.7%
Style
40.5%
46.1%
34.8%
36.9%
10.5%
10.1%
45.9%
55.6%
33.1%
34.2%
Roster
2.41
2.61
6'5.1"
6'4.8"
—
81.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Louisiana
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Louisiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

San Francisco
Returning minutes: 81.0%Returning production: 76.4%
Lost
  • David Fuchs 21.1 mpg, 11.2 ppg · transferred to Clemson
  • Guillermo Diaz Graham 17.2 mpg, 5.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Ndewedo Newbury no D1 minutes last season
  • Isa Silva no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 81% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.