CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceHart Center Arena, Worcester, MA

Brown

Efficiency #275

2025-26: 9-18 · 3-11 conf

Holy Cross

Efficiency #325

2025-26: 11-22 · 6-14 conf

Wed, Nov 18 · TBD

68.7

win 45%

Projected

70.2

win 55%

No line posted yet.

Model: HC −1.5 · total 138.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Holy Cross 67.1, Brown 67.9 → 66.6 possessions

−3.7

Holy Cross offense vs Brown defense

−4.0

Brown offense vs Holy Cross defense

−1.7

Projected total

138.9

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Holy Cross offense vs Brown defense

−4.0

Brown offense vs Holy Cross defense

+1.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Holy Cross by 1.5

1.5

Brown side ◂▸ Holy Cross side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 138.8 against a projected 138.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Holy Cross.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Brown is the faster team (66.7, #260 of 365) and Holy Cross the slower (65.8, #302). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

138.9

model

Projected team totals

68.7 / 70.2

Brown / Holy Cross

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.9#220

Brown

67.1#280

Holy Cross

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageHoly Cross

Where Holy Cross struggles: the offensive glass

Holy Cross rebounds 21.9% of its own misses (#356); Brown lets opponents grab 30.0% of their own misses (#164). Expect about 24.3%, 6.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.7 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Half-court grind

Holy Cross averages 65.8 possessions per 40, Brown 66.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Brown) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Brown at about 36.7% of its shots from three, Holy Cross about 40.0%.

AdvantageBrown

Where Brown struggles: the offensive glass

Brown rebounds 29.0% of its own misses (#236); Holy Cross lets opponents grab 27.0% of their own misses (#37). Expect about 27.8%, 2.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions.

ClashBrown

Style match: paint scoring

Brown scores 50.4% of its points in the paint; Holy Cross gives up 47.9% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 46.4% — both habits push the same way.

Brown has the ball

OffenseHoly Cross allowsvs D1 avg

48.6% #299

54.8% #324

+0.4 pt/100

19.5% #337

14.1% #332

+0.2 pt/100

29.0% #236

27.0% #37

-1.6 pt/100

28.1% #342

27.6% #30

-1.0 pt/100

68.4% #316

—

-0.4 pt/100

Brown net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.3 pts/100

Holy Cross has the ball

OffenseBrown allowsvs D1 avg

49.8% #248

51.3% #176

-1.2 pt/100

15.3% #86

18.7% #62

-0.5 pt/100

21.9% #356

30.0% #164

-3.7 pt/100

31.5% #268

37.6% #253

-0.0 pt/100

77.2% #29

—

+0.4 pt/100

Holy Cross net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Brownoffense vsHoly Crossdefense

Share of shots by zone

Brown shoots

44.3

4.7

14.9

36.1

Holy Cross allows

41.5

6.4

13.3

38.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.9%#276	63.4%#333	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.5%#90	50.0%#354	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.7%#297	43.3%#332	38.0%
Three	30.3%#338	34.0%#181	33.7%

Holy Crossoffense vsBrowndefense

Share of shots by zone

Holy Cross shoots

33.1

8.5

22.4

36.0

Brown allows

37.3

2.8

16.3

43.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.6%#310	55.7%#77	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.2%#49	40.5%#200	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	46.0%#7	45.8%#355	38.0%
Three	32.5%#252	33.5%#157	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Brown

−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#308 of 365

Off reb %

29.0%

#236

Def reb %

70.0%

#164

Turnover %

19.5%

#337

Forced TO %

18.7%

#62

FT rate

28.1%

#342

FT allowed

37.6%

#253

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.5

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security−1.8

Forcing turnovers+1.4

Foul shots drawn−1.8

Foul shots allowed−0.6

Holy Cross

−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#248 of 365

Off reb %

21.9%

#356

Def reb %

73.0%

#37

Turnover %

15.3%

#86

Forced TO %

14.1%

#332

FT rate

31.5%

#268

FT allowed

27.6%

#30

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.8

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers−1.8

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed+2.0

Holy Cross has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.3 (#248 of 365) to Brown’s −3.1 (#308).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Brown2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Brown's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Jeremiah Jenkins	G	So	6'0"	27-27	30.1	8.2	3.9	5.2	2.8	44.6%	36.4%	3.7	75.5%	22.2%
5	Adrian Uchidiuno	G	Jr	6'2"	27-8	25.3	9.1	2.7	1.1	1.4	42.1%	26.2%	5.4	81.3%	27.4%
40	Landon Lewis	F	Sr	6'7"	21-21	30.8	16.6	7.2	1.9	2.3	56.3%	42.9%	0.7	56.5%	32.3%
45	N'famara Dabo	F	Jr	6'8"	27-25	23.3	7.2	5.7	1.0	0.8	63.6%	0.0%	0.0	56.3%	16.7%
12	Malcolm Wrisby-Jefferson	G	Jr	6'4"	27-11	22.2	4.2	3.6	2.8	1.5	41.5%	22.6%	1.1	73.9%	16.6%
1	Isaiah Langham	G	Fr	6'5"	27-13	21.1	8.4	2.4	0.9	1.4	45.9%	18.8%	2.4	70.2%	28.2%
23	David Rochester	F	So	6'8"	22-7	22.0	6.2	3.4	1.6	1.1	44.2%	28.6%	1.3	72.5%	19.8%
14	Luke Paragon	G	Jr	6'4"	26-18	16.4	7.1	1.5	0.6	0.5	59.2%	39.0%	3.8	93.5%	21.8%
33	Charlie O'Sullivan	F	Fr	6'10"	20-0	11.5	4.6	2.1	0.9	0.5	60.4%	37.3%	2.5	71.4%	21.7%
30	Brady Loughlin	G	Fr	6'5"	12-1	18.2	6.5	2.0	0.7	0.9	59.2%	38.8%	4.1	70.0%	21.0%
6	Wyatt DeGraaf	F	So	6'10"	14-3	9.2	2.4	1.6	0.3	0.6	68.2%	—	0.0	42.9%	15.7%
32	Drew Kania	F	Sr	6'8"	8-1	5.4	1.6	1.0	0.1	0.3	30.8%	—	0.0	71.4%	24.9%
4	Jonah Drezner	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	5.6	2.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	61.1%	42.9%	1.4	—	19.4%
11	Jerrell Barron Jr.	G	So	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Holy Cross2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Gabe Warren	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	31.6	12.5	4.5	1.5	1.3	52.4%	33.7%	2.6	73.1%	23.5%
0	Tyler Boston	G	So	6'0"	32-32	32.0	14.2	3.7	3.6	1.8	49.7%	35.9%	4.0	82.3%	27.2%
2	DeAndre Williams	G	Jr	6'3"	33-18	25.5	7.9	3.2	1.8	1.4	48.1%	31.1%	2.7	81.0%	21.7%
23	Aidan Richard	F	So	6'6"	30-24	27.2	5.2	4.1	0.8	0.8	38.9%	22.3%	3.7	51.4%	16.1%
30	Joe Nugent	G	Jr	6'6"	21-21	29.7	11.8	3.6	0.7	0.9	59.1%	40.7%	5.6	87.2%	21.2%
4	John St. Germain III	G	Jr	6'1"	31-0	15.5	4.5	1.2	1.0	0.7	48.6%	36.0%	0.8	78.7%	18.8%
34	Declan Ryan	F	Jr	6'8"	26-4	13.5	4.9	2.2	0.7	1.2	55.2%	25.0%	0.5	62.5%	24.9%
1	Will Aljancic	F	Jr	6'6"	17-0	11.8	3.1	1.9	0.3	0.9	46.2%	25.0%	0.7	30.0%	21.7%
22	Chuck Hare	F	So	6'10"	24-3	7.7	2.2	1.7	0.1	0.3	46.7%	—	0.0	62.5%	19.7%
5	Jaden Kirkwood	G	Sr	6'5"	16-1	6.5	0.6	1.2	0.5	0.2	34.6%	16.7%	0.4	—	9.2%
11	Jude Haigh	G	Fr	6'5"	13-0	6.9	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.2	37.0%	27.3%	1.7	100.0%	20.8%
15	Tim Finau	F	Fr	6'11"	8-0	2.3	0.6	0.8	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	28.7%
33	Austin Mejia	G	So	6'3"	7-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	4.8%
25	Ethan Clark	F	Fr	6'7"	7-0	1.4	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	5.9%
3	Ben Capron	G	Sr	6'0"	3-0	1.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Brown2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Brown's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Jeremiah Jenkins	G	So	6'0"	27-27	30.1	8.2	3.9	5.2	2.8	44.6%	36.4%	3.7	75.5%	22.2%
5	Adrian Uchidiuno	G	Jr	6'2"	27-8	25.3	9.1	2.7	1.1	1.4	42.1%	26.2%	5.4	81.3%	27.4%
40	Landon Lewis	F	Sr	6'7"	21-21	30.8	16.6	7.2	1.9	2.3	56.3%	42.9%	0.7	56.5%	32.3%
45	N'famara Dabo	F	Jr	6'8"	27-25	23.3	7.2	5.7	1.0	0.8	63.6%	0.0%	0.0	56.3%	16.7%
12	Malcolm Wrisby-Jefferson	G	Jr	6'4"	27-11	22.2	4.2	3.6	2.8	1.5	41.5%	22.6%	1.1	73.9%	16.6%
1	Isaiah Langham	G	Fr	6'5"	27-13	21.1	8.4	2.4	0.9	1.4	45.9%	18.8%	2.4	70.2%	28.2%
23	David Rochester	F	So	6'8"	22-7	22.0	6.2	3.4	1.6	1.1	44.2%	28.6%	1.3	72.5%	19.8%
14	Luke Paragon	G	Jr	6'4"	26-18	16.4	7.1	1.5	0.6	0.5	59.2%	39.0%	3.8	93.5%	21.8%
33	Charlie O'Sullivan	F	Fr	6'10"	20-0	11.5	4.6	2.1	0.9	0.5	60.4%	37.3%	2.5	71.4%	21.7%
30	Brady Loughlin	G	Fr	6'5"	12-1	18.2	6.5	2.0	0.7	0.9	59.2%	38.8%	4.1	70.0%	21.0%
6	Wyatt DeGraaf	F	So	6'10"	14-3	9.2	2.4	1.6	0.3	0.6	68.2%	—	0.0	42.9%	15.7%
32	Drew Kania	F	Sr	6'8"	8-1	5.4	1.6	1.0	0.1	0.3	30.8%	—	0.0	71.4%	24.9%
4	Jonah Drezner	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	5.6	2.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	61.1%	42.9%	1.4	—	19.4%
11	Jerrell Barron Jr.	G	So	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Brown

Against the spread

Season

13-12

Home

5-7

Road

8-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −3.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

12-13

Home

4-8

Road

8-5

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.3

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	PennAdjEM #162	H	L 61–82	−1.0	L−22.0	147.0	U143	84.9	114.2	71.8
Feb 28	CornellAdjEM #135	A	L 80–86	+9.5	W+3.5	157.5	O166	110.7	119.1	72.2
Feb 27	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	A	L 62–80	+5.5	L−12.5	140.0	O142	91.1	117.6	68.1
Feb 20	PrincetonAdjEM #251	H	W 80–71	−3.0	W+6.0	130.0	O151	124.7	110.7	64.1
Feb 14	DartmouthAdjEM #254	A	W 79–76	+3.0	W+6.0	139.5	O155	110.6	106.4	71.5
Feb 13	HarvardAdjEM #133	A	L 53–56	+8.0	W+5.0	131.5	U109	85.7	90.6	61.8
Feb 6	YaleAdjEM #57	A	L 69–81	+15.0	W+3.0	139.0	O150	105.7	124.1	65.3
Jan 31	DartmouthAdjEM #254	H	L 70–77 OT	−2.0	L−9.0	143.0	O147	93.7	103.1	74.7
Jan 30	HarvardAdjEM #133	H	L 59–69	+1.5	L−8.5	133.0	U128	96.8	113.3	60.9
Jan 24	PrincetonAdjEM #251	A	L 53–63	+4.5	L−5.5	133.5	U116	83.1	98.7	63.8

Holy Cross

Against the spread

Season

16-15

Home

6-6

Road

9-9

Last 10

5-5

avg cover 0.0

Covered 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-16

Home

7-5

Road

8-10

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +3.2

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	LehighAdjEM #273	A	L 66–69	+5.5	W+2.5	142.5	U135	99.1	103.6	66.6
Mar 3	LafayetteAdjEM #319	A	W 82–77	+4.5	W+9.5	141.5	O159	121.4	114.0	67.5
Feb 28	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	H	L 62–76	−1.0	L−15.0	151.0	U138	97.9	120.0	63.3
Feb 25	Boston UAdjEM #237	A	L 63–78	+8.5	L−6.5	142.0	U141	99.0	122.5	63.7
Feb 22	BucknellAdjEM #334	A	W 72–63	+2.5	W+11.5	141.5	U135	109.4	95.7	65.8
Feb 18	LafayetteAdjEM #319	H	L 83–86	−2.0	L−5.0	139.5	O169	116.1	120.3	71.5
Feb 15	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	A	L 73–83	+4.5	L−5.5	145.5	O156	112.2	127.5	65.1
Feb 11	ColgateAdjEM #223	H	L 70–74	+8.0	W+4.0	143.0	O144	102.3	108.1	68.5
Feb 7	LehighAdjEM #273	H	W 76–67	+1.5	W+10.5	137.0	O143	117.2	103.3	64.8
Feb 2	Boston UAdjEM #237	H	L 64–72	+2.0	L−6.0	140.0	U136	110.1	123.9	58.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

BrownHoly Cross

Efficiency

101.4

103.6

107.4

113.1

67.9

67.1

—

Shooting

48.6%

49.8%

50.4%

30.3%

32.5%

68.4%

77.2%

28.1%

31.5%

Ball control & glass

19.5%

15.3%

18.7%

14.1%

29.0%

21.9%

30.0%

27.0%

11.3%

9.7%

9.4%

8.3%

Style

36.3%

37.3%

50.4%

41.4%

13.3%

10.3%

59.5%

44.7%

37.1%

27.9%

Roster

2.49

2.63

6'4.9"

6'4.3"

—

87.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Brown

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Brown's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Holy Cross

Returning minutes: 87.9%Returning production: 86.0%

Lost

Aiden Disu 24.1 mpg, 9.5 ppg · transferred to Iona

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Tue, Nov 18	2025-26	Holy Cross 49 – 68 Brown

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.