Mercer Bears vs Presbyterian Blue Hose basketball preview & prediction

Wed, Nov 18 · 7:00 PM ET · Templeton Center, Clinton, SC

Non-conferenceESPN+Templeton Center, Clinton, SC
Mercer
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #201
@
Presbyterian
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #259
Wed, Nov 18 · 7:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Mercer is the faster team (69.9, #207 of 365) and Presbyterian the slower (67.3, #280). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.2
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.2#134
Mercer
67.5#341
Presbyterian

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup
From the four factors
Presbyterian has the ball+12.7
Mercer has the ball+8.8
Presbyterian has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 17.1% #153 · MER forces 6.4% #358 · ~7 turnovers+6.8
✓Shoots it welleFG% 52.8% #141 · MER allows 55.7% #272+4.1
✓Wins second chancesOR% 32.8% #153 · MER allows 37.3% #285+1.5
✓Gets to the lineFTR 52.8% #41 · MER allows 26.4% #60 · FT 71.9% #146+0.2
Mercer has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 49.1% #195 · PRES allows 60.2% #326+4.3
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 19.3% #226 · PRES forces 10.4% #344 · ~9 turnovers+3.7
✓Wins second chancesOR% 30.6% #200 · PRES allows 36.5% #271+0.7
✓Gets to the lineFTR 36.2% #187 · PRES allows 41.5% #227 · FT 69.0% #195+0.1

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot
Merceroffense vsPresbyteriandefense
Share of shots by zone
Mercer shoots
Presbyterian allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim48.1%#28971.8%#32358.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)53.3%#7345.5%#23138.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.0%#11728.6%#11634.7%
Three35.6%#12244.0%#33232.5%
Presbyterianoffense vsMercerdefense
Share of shots by zone
Presbyterian shoots
Mercer allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim71.4%#3861.4%#21758.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)80.0%#1252.6%#28538.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)9.1%#32257.1%#32034.7%
Three27.3%#25336.4%#26832.5%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line
Mercer
−8.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#296 of 365
Off reb %
30.6%
#200
Def reb %
62.7%
#285
Turnover %
19.3%
#226
Forced TO %
6.4%
#358
FT rate
36.2%
#187
FT allowed
26.4%
#60
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.3
Defensive rebounding−1.9
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers−8.2
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+3.0
Presbyterian
−2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#219 of 365
Off reb %
32.8%
#153
Def reb %
63.5%
#271
Turnover %
17.1%
#153
Forced TO %
10.4%
#344
FT rate
52.8%
#41
FT allowed
41.5%
#227
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.4
Defensive rebounding−1.6
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers−5.4
Foul shots drawn+4.0
Foul shots allowed−0.9

Presbyterian has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.7 (#219 of 365) to Mercer’s −8.6 (#296).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not
Mercer2026-27 numbers · last game: Davidson, Nov 7
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGMin/40, last 8Last 3 vs beforeStatusPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%Usage
11GJr6'6"3-328.738—Started last3.77.71.31.335.7%25.0%1.360.0%10.3%
3GSr6'2"3-326.027—Started last14.01.03.32.356.3%42.1%6.3100.0%29.9%
23GJr6'4"3-325.736—Started last14.02.71.00.361.3%35.3%5.757.1%25.9%
1GJr6'3"3-325.023—Started last13.02.71.73.038.7%33.3%2.075.0%36.5%
35FJr6'11"3-325.032—Started last6.74.70.31.758.8%0.0%0.3—16.5%
0FSr6'6"3-024.027—Bench10.05.71.00.354.8%37.5%2.777.8%20.4%
2GSo5'11"3-015.310—Bench10.01.70.32.052.2%30.8%4.366.7%39.5%
12FSr6'8"3-09.07—Bench0.72.70.01.0100.0%—0.0—8.2%
25FSr6'10"2-011.50—Missed last game2.55.50.02.050.0%—0.050.0%20.7%
5G——2-010.00—Missed last game1.01.01.50.514.3%0.0%2.5—21.3%
0GSr6'4"2-09.00—Missed last game4.02.51.00.557.1%33.3%3.0—23.7%
16G—5'10"1-02.0——Missed last2.00.00.00.0100.0%—0.00.0%39.1%
10GSr5'10"1-02.0——Missed last0.00.00.00.00.0%0.0%1.0—26.5%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home
MercerPresbyterian
Efficiency
109.3
105.8
112.0
111.9
71.2
67.5
9.5
6.3
Shooting
49.1%
52.8%
46.5%
60.9%
35.6%
27.3%
69.0%
71.9%
36.2%
52.8%
Ball control & glass
19.3%
17.1%
6.4%
10.4%
30.6%
32.8%
37.3%
36.5%
8.6%
9.7%
8.5%
7.8%
Style
38.8%
40.7%
39.2%
45.2%
1.4%
16.1%
44.9%
43.1%
34.9%
32.6%
Roster
3.20
3.31
6'4.9"
6'5.5"
24.2%
65.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Mercer
Returning minutes: 24.2%Returning production: 20.8%
Lost
  • Baraka Okojie 33.0 mpg, 19.1 ppg · transferred to George Mason
  • Armani Mighty 31.1 mpg, 13.2 ppg · transferred to Pitt
  • Zaire Williams 28.5 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Connor Serven 18.5 mpg, 5.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Kyle Cuffe Jr. 15.9 mpg, 7.1 ppg · transferred to St John's
  • Tristan Gross 11.9 mpg, 3.7 ppg · transferred to Radford
Added
  • Keelan Steele from Maine · 15.5 mpg, 6.1 ppg last season
  • Makoi Mabor Makoi from UNC Wilmington · 8.5 mpg, 1.5 ppg last season
  • Dawson Barr no D1 minutes last season
  • Ryder Cate no D1 minutes last season
  • Sawyer Mayhugh no D1 minutes last season
  • Petras Padegimas no D1 minutes last season

Returns 24% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Presbyterian
Returning minutes: 70.5%Returning production: 72.0%
Lost
  • Jonah Pierce 32.6 mpg, 16.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Josh Pickett 27.0 mpg, 5.8 ppg · transferred to Long Island
Added
  • Langston Hackworth no D1 minutes last season
  • Augustine Ayelyine no D1 minutes last season
  • Nehemiah Young no D1 minutes last season
  • EJ Smith no D1 minutes last season
  • Wade Marsh no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 71% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Wed, Nov 18

← Tue, Nov 17 · Thu, Nov 19 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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