CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLavietes Pavilion, Cambridge, MA
Boston College
Efficiency #187
2025-26: 11-20 · 4-14 conf
@
Harvard
Efficiency #133
2025-26: 17-12 · 10-5 conf
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
63.3
win 32%
Projected
68.8
win 68%
No line posted yet.
Model: HARV −5.5 · total 132.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Harvard 65.6, Boston College 67.4 → 64.6 possessions
−8.0
Harvard offense vs Boston College defense
−3.1
Boston College offense vs Harvard defense
−4.9
Projected total
132.1
Axis starts at 120 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Harvard offense vs Boston College defense
−3.1
Boston College offense vs Harvard defense
+4.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
Harvard by 5.5
5.5
Boston College side ◂▸ Harvard side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 132.2 against a projected 132.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Harvard.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Boston College is the faster team (66.4, #281 of 365) and Harvard the slower (63.9, #357). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
64.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
132.1
model
Projected team totals
63.3 / 68.8
Boston College / Harvard
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.4#262
Boston College
65.6#354
Harvard

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
Harvard averages 63.9 possessions per 40, Boston College 66.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageBoston College
Where Boston College struggles: shooting
Boston College shoots an effective 47.0% (#338); Harvard allows 50.4% (#122). Expect about 48.4%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.2 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageHarvard
Where Harvard struggles: the offensive glass
Harvard rebounds 26.8% of its own misses (#302); Boston College lets opponents grab 28.6% of their own misses (#87). Expect about 27.0%, 3.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Boston College) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Boston College at about 41.3% of its shots from three, Harvard about 39.7%.
GlassBoston College
Boston College gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.8% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against Boston College's offense.
Boston College has the ball
OffenseHarvard allowsvs D1 avg
47.0% #338
50.4% #122
-4.2 pt/100
15.4% #95
17.1% #141
+0.7 pt/100
28.3% #254
28.2% #69
-1.6 pt/100
32.4% #251
26.6% #17
-0.8 pt/100
65.3% #358
—
-0.6 pt/100
Boston College net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.4 pts/100
Harvard has the ball
OffenseBoston College allowsvs D1 avg
53.2% #94
48.9% #62
-0.2 pt/100
17.4% #233
14.9% #300
+1.0 pt/100
26.8% #302
28.6% #87
-2.1 pt/100
25.7% #359
34.6% #166
-0.6 pt/100
80.8% #1
—
+0.7 pt/100
Harvard net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Boston Collegeoffense vsHarvarddefense
Share of shots by zone
Boston College shoots
Harvard allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.3%#26056.4%#9558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)45.7%#5544.9%#29539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.0%#10941.3%#28438.0%
Three29.4%#34832.6%#9433.7%
Harvardoffense vsBoston Collegedefense
Share of shots by zone
Harvard shoots
Boston College allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.7%#8057.1%#11658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.5%#3535.6%#7839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.8%#11836.0%#11038.0%
Three34.7%#13531.9%#5933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Boston College
−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#219 of 365
Off reb %
28.3%
#254
Def reb %
71.4%
#87
Turnover %
15.4%
#95
Forced TO %
14.9%
#300
FT rate
32.4%
#251
FT allowed
34.6%
#166
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn−0.7
Foul shots allowed+0.2
Harvard
−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#212 of 365
Off reb %
26.8%
#302
Def reb %
71.8%
#69
Turnover %
17.4%
#233
Forced TO %
17.1%
#141
FT rate
25.7%
#359
FT allowed
26.6%
#17
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.2
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−0.4
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed+2.2

Harvard has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.7 (#212 of 365) to Boston College’s −0.8 (#219).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Boston College2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3Ernest Sheltonat MerrimackGSr6'5"34-3436.915.93.10.91.151.3%34.6%8.487.2%25.2%
5Armoni Zeiglerat Ball StateGSr6'4"31-2932.412.55.13.32.745.0%33.0%3.077.9%28.0%
0Money Williamsat MontanaGSr6'4"34-3431.220.64.34.74.154.7%34.0%4.285.5%37.4%
20Brandon Benjaminat FairfieldFSo6'8"32-3131.314.210.41.21.856.8%25.0%0.368.6%26.5%
1Andrija Bukumirovicat UT MartinFSr6'7"32-3229.313.87.81.01.359.0%36.4%4.057.5%26.5%
11JB Frankelat NortheasternGSr6'3"30-1320.75.92.01.90.942.9%29.7%3.784.0%20.4%
33Luke Hungerat G WashingtonFSr6'10"33-1319.28.45.10.91.552.9%31.1%1.481.7%25.7%
13Aly Tounkaraat Arkansas StFJr7'0"32-2118.24.35.50.51.062.9%—0.036.8%13.9%
2Colby Dugganat CharlestonFSr6'7"19-1928.09.32.42.31.547.9%29.5%4.186.4%21.4%
7Jacob Furphyat UConnGSo6'5"14-02.50.40.10.00.142.9%0.0%0.1—15.7%
12Jameson O'Tooleat FordhamGSr6'3"7-13.91.00.90.40.331.3%20.0%0.7100.0%23.0%
21Will EggemeierGSr6'3"1-01.00.00.00.00.00.0%0.0%1.0—61.3%
22Jack BaileyFFr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
24ak SmrekarGFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
14Jordan GheeGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Brandon Benjamin (from Fairfield), Andrija Bukumirovic (from UT Martin), Colby Duggan (from Charleston), JB Frankel (from Northeastern), Jacob Furphy (from UConn), Luke Hunger (from G Washington), Jameson O'Toole (from Fordham), Ernest Shelton (from Merrimack), Aly Tounkara (from Arkansas St), Money Williams (from Montana), Armoni Zeigler (from Ball State)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Boston CollegeHarvard
Efficiency
103.8
107.6
104.5
105.6
67.4
65.6
—
—
Shooting
47.0%
53.2%
49.1%
54.0%
29.4%
34.7%
65.3%
80.8%
32.4%
25.7%
Ball control & glass
15.4%
17.4%
14.9%
17.1%
28.3%
26.8%
28.6%
28.2%
9.2%
10.2%
10.0%
7.4%
Style
42.4%
40.2%
40.9%
43.0%
9.5%
10.7%
47.4%
56.1%
30.0%
19.9%
Roster
3.65
2.45
6'6.3"
6'4.9"
0.0%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Boston College
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: -0.1%
Lost
  • Fred Payne 34.7 mpg, 15.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Donald Hand Jr. 27.8 mpg, 11.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Boden Kapke 26.8 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Aidan Shaw 25.5 mpg, 4.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Chase Forte 23.3 mpg, 6.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jayden Hastings 22.6 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Ernest Shelton from Merrimack · 36.9 mpg, 15.9 ppg last season
  • Armoni Zeigler from Ball State · 32.4 mpg, 12.5 ppg last season
  • Money Williams from Montana · 31.2 mpg, 20.6 ppg last season
  • Brandon Benjamin from Fairfield · 29.5 mpg, 13.4 ppg last season
  • Andrija Bukumirovic from UT Martin · 28.4 mpg, 13.3 ppg last season
  • JB Frankel from Northeastern · 20.0 mpg, 5.7 ppg last season

Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Harvard
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Harvard's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Wed, Nov 262025-26Harvard 60 – 73 Boston College

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.