Howard Bison vs Duquesne Dukes basketball preview & prediction
Wed, Nov 18 · 7:00 PM ET · Ocean Center, Daytona Beach, FL (neutral site)
Sunshine SlamNeutral siteNon-conferenceESPN+Ocean Center, Daytona Beach, FL
Howard
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #170
vs
Duquesne
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #138
Wed, Nov 18 · 7:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 71.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Howard is the faster team (71.8, #145 of 365) and Duquesne the slower (71.1, #167). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
71.7
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.9#160
Howard
71.3#128
Duquesne
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Duquesne has the ball+3.2
Howard has the ball−3.2
Duquesne has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 57.3% #66 · HOW allows 49.5% #158+3.7
✗Coughs it upTO% 21.1% #275 · HOW forces 20.0% #110 · ~15 turnovers−2.4
✓Wins second chancesOR% 30.8% #194 · HOW allows 40.4% #317+1.6
✓Gets to the lineFTR 36.4% #185 · HOW allows 36.6% #183 · FT 75.0% #98+0.2
Howard has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 19.5% #229 · DUQ forces 19.7% #115 · ~14 turnovers−1.5
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 36.8% #177 · DUQ allows 19.7% #18 · FT 61.8% #291−1.5
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 48.4% #207 · DUQ allows 50.0% #163−1.3
✓Wins second chancesOR% 38.9% #55 · DUQ allows 25.6% #73+1.0
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootHowardoffense vsDuquesnedefense
Share of shots by zone
Howard shoots
48.2
9.4
7.1
35.3
Duquesne allows
42.6
6.6
8.2
42.6
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.1%#209 | 38.5%#15 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 18.8%#292 | 0.0%#1 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 41.7%#109 | 20.0%#59 | 34.7% |
| Three | 30.9%#212 | 50.0%#352 | 32.5% |
Duquesneoffense vsHowarddefense
Share of shots by zone
Duquesne shoots
56.4
7.3
7.3
29.1
Howard allows
35.2
6.7
16.8
41.3
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 67.7%#74 | 54.0%#129 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#75 | 41.7%#215 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 25.0%#245 | 43.3%#250 | 34.7% |
| Three | 31.3%#203 | 34.7%#220 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineHoward
+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#171 of 365
Off reb %
38.9%
#55
Def reb %
59.6%
#317
Turnover %
19.5%
#229
Forced TO %
20.0%
#110
FT rate
36.8%
#177
FT allowed
36.6%
#183
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.5
Defensive rebounding−2.9
Ball security−0.9
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.4
Duquesne
+5.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#105 of 365
Off reb %
30.8%
#194
Def reb %
74.4%
#73
Turnover %
21.1%
#275
Forced TO %
19.7%
#115
FT rate
36.4%
#185
FT allowed
19.7%
#18
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.3
Defensive rebounding+2.0
Ball security−2.0
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+4.8
Duquesne has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.4 (#105 of 365) to Howard’s +0.2 (#171).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notHoward2026-27 numbers · last game: Penn, Nov 9
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | G | Sr | 5'11" | 3-3 | 36.3 | 34 | — | Started last | 16.7 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 67.9% | 61.5% | 4.3 | 63.2% | 23.6% | |
| 12 | G | Sr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 31.3 | 37 | — | Started last | 16.7 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 46.3% | 33.3% | 4.0 | 70.6% | 36.9% | |
| 13 | C | Jr | 6'10" | 3-3 | 25.3 | 26 | — | Started last | 9.0 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 52.2% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 37.5% | 22.0% | |
| 4 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 3-3 | 23.0 | 18 | — | Started last | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 22.7% | 11.8% | 5.7 | 50.0% | 22.0% | |
| 8 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 3-0 | 22.3 | 19 | — | Bench | 7.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 40.4% | 23.1% | 4.3 | 66.7% | 23.8% | |
| 1 | F | Fr | 6'7" | 3-0 | 22.0 | 32 | — | Bench | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 79.4% | 75.0% | 1.3 | 33.3% | 16.0% | |
| 6 | C | So | 6'10" | 3-3 | 21.0 | 17 | — | Started last | 4.3 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 100.0% | 18.1% | |
| 10 | G | So | 6'3" | 3-0 | 6.0 | 3 | — | Bench | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 15.8% | |
| 3 | G | So | 6'0" | 3-0 | 5.7 | 10 | — | Bench | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 43.8% | 50.0% | 0.7 | 66.7% | 35.9% | |
| 21 | F | Jr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 5.5 | 2 | — | Bench | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 9.6% | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'1" | 2-0 | 3.0 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 39.3% | |
| 7 | F | So | 6'9" | 1-0 | 3.0 | — | — | Active | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 34.4% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesHoward
Against the spread
Season
1-2
Home
0-0
Road
1-2
Last 10
1-2
avg cover −2.8
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-2
Home
0-0
Road
1-2
Last 10
1-2
avg vs total −1.2
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Penn | A | L 65–78 | +6.0 | L−7.0 | 155.0 | U143 | 84.7 | 101.6 | 76.8 |
| Nov 5 | Alcorn St | A | W 94–83 | −9.5 | W+1.5 | 149.5 | O177 | 129.6 | 114.5 | 72.5 |
| Nov 2 | Yale | A | L 62–72 | +7.0 | L−3.0 | 153.0 | U134 | 93.9 | 109.0 | 66.0 |
| Mar 19 | #1Michigan | N | L 80–101 | +31.0 | W+10.0 | 151.5 | O181 | 112.2 | 141.7 | 71.3 |
| Mar 17 | #16UMBC | N | W 86–83 | +1.0 | W+4.0 | 142.5 | O169 | 123.5 | 119.2 | 69.6 |
| Mar 14 | NC Central | N | W 70–63 | −11.5 | L−4.5 | 143.5 | U133 | 112.4 | 101.2 | 62.3 |
| Mar 13 | SC State | N | W 78–61 | −15.5 | W+1.5 | 146.0 | U139 | 105.9 | 82.8 | 73.6 |
| Mar 5 | Norfolk St | A | W 84–76 | −6.5 | W+1.5 | 148.5 | O160 | 121.4 | 109.8 | 69.2 |
| Mar 2 | Coppin St | H | W 90–70 | −18.5 | W+1.5 | 140.0 | O160 | 127.2 | 98.9 | 70.8 |
| Feb 28 | Morgan St | A | W 84–59 | −9.5 | W+15.5 | 158.0 | U143 | 116.6 | 81.9 | 72.0 |
Duquesne
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −2.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −3.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | Washington St | H | W 72–71 | −3.5 | L−2.5 | 145.5 | U143 | 115.2 | 113.6 | 62.5 |
| Nov 7 | Central State Marauders | H | W 68–58 | — | — | — | — | 103.8 | 88.5 | 65.5 |
| Nov 3 | Purdue FW | H | W 78–71 | −9.5 | L−2.5 | 152.5 | U149 | 109.7 | 99.9 | 71.1 |
| Mar 13 | VCU | N | L 66–71 | +7.0 | W+2.0 | 153.0 | U137 | 101.9 | 109.6 | 64.8 |
| Mar 12 | Rhode Island | N | W 67–61 | −1.5 | W+4.5 | 138.5 | U128 | 112.4 | 102.3 | 59.6 |
| Mar 7 | Richmond | H | W 79–77 | −4.5 | L−2.5 | 148.0 | O156 | 119.9 | 116.8 | 65.9 |
| Mar 4 | Rhode Island | A | L 52–64 | +2.5 | L−9.5 | 143.0 | U116 | 79.7 | 98.1 | 65.3 |
| Feb 28 | #23Saint Louis | A | L 76–91 | +13.5 | L−1.5 | 160.0 | O167 | 115.7 | 138.6 | 65.7 |
| Feb 25 | Davidson | H | L 56–67 | −3.5 | L−14.5 | 143.0 | U123 | 85.4 | 102.2 | 65.6 |
| Feb 21 | Dayton | A | L 66–78 | +6.5 | L−5.5 | 148.5 | U144 | 102.6 | 121.3 | 64.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeHowardDuquesne
Efficiency
104.0
106.7
104.7
105.0
70.9
71.3
-3.7
-4.6
Shooting
48.4%
57.3%
49.6%
61.5%
30.9%
31.3%
61.8%
75.0%
36.8%
36.4%
Ball control & glass
19.5%
21.1%
20.0%
19.7%
38.9%
30.8%
40.4%
25.6%
8.4%
8.4%
12.0%
5.1%
Style
36.8%
29.1%
48.0%
59.0%
18.1%
20.5%
51.9%
62.1%
31.4%
35.3%
Roster
3.07
2.85
6'5.6"
6'5.8"
51.3%
12.7%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputHoward
Returning minutes: 64.9%Returning production: 61.7%
Lost
- Bryce Harris 32.3 mpg, 17.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Travelle Bryson 16.5 mpg, 7.8 ppg · transferred to W Carolina
- Danas Kazakevicius 14.1 mpg, 3.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ed Holland III 6.6 mpg, 1.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Stefan Isailovic 1.0 mpg, 0.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Josiah Lawson new to D1 · 27.0 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
- Gasper Kocevar from Fresno St · 10.9 mpg, 2.7 ppg last season
- James Brown from North Carolina · 1.5 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
- Drew Harris no D1 minutes last season
Returns 65% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5.
Duquesne
Returning minutes: 28.8%Returning production: 26.0%
Lost
- Jimmie Williams 29.7 mpg, 15.1 ppg · transferred to Ohio State
- Jakub Necas 23.7 mpg, 6.7 ppg · transferred to South Carolina
- David Dixon 22.4 mpg, 8.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Cam Crawford 18.0 mpg, 4.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Alex Williams 16.8 mpg, 8.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- John Hugley IV 13.1 mpg, 6.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Yoav Berman from Queens · 29.2 mpg, 12.3 ppg last season
- Josh Smith from West Georgia · 26.3 mpg, 15.7 ppg last season
- Kerem Konan from Creighton · 7.4 mpg, 2.3 ppg last season
- Ege Demir from Oregon · 5.3 mpg, 1.3 ppg last season
- Izaiah Pasha from Virginia Tech · 4.6 mpg, 1.1 ppg last season
- Stephen Olowoniyi from Oregon St · 1.1 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
Returns 29% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Wed, Nov 18
- Jackson St at Baylor · 12:00 PM ET
- Navy at Georgetown · 6:30 PM ET
- IU Indy at Penn State · 6:30 PM ET
- Detroit Mercy at E Michigan · 6:30 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Winthrop · 6:30 PM ET
- Samford at SC Upstate · 6:30 PM ET
- Tennessee Tech at UNC Asheville · 6:30 PM ET
- Binghamton at Lafayette · 7:00 PM ET
- Brown at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
- Wofford at Charleston So · 7:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at UIC · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at FDU · 7:00 PM ET
- UNC Wilmington at Long Island · 7:00 PM ET
- NC Central at George Mason · 7:00 PM ET
- Siena at St John's · 7:00 PM ET
- Vermont at Yale · 7:00 PM ET
- Morehead St at Ohio · 7:00 PM ET
- Elon at South Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Morgan St at NC A&T · 7:00 PM ET
- VMI at Longwood · 7:00 PM ET
- Furman at Radford · 7:00 PM ET
- FGCU at FAU · 7:00 PM ET
- Boston U at Merrimack · 7:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at La Salle · 7:00 PM ET
- James Madison at Towson · 7:00 PM ET
- Mercer at Presbyterian · 7:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Marquette · 7:30 PM ET
- Youngstown St at Cincinnati · 7:30 PM ET
- LSU N Orleans at Texas Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- Campbell at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
- Boston College at Harvard · 8:00 PM ET
- Wichita St at Loyola Chicago · 8:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at LSU · 8:00 PM ET
- New Hampshire at Stonehill · 8:00 PM ET
- Cornell at Syracuse · 8:00 PM ET
- Purdue FW at Bradley · 8:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at Arkansas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Incarnate Word at Texas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Florida A&M at UTSA · 8:00 PM ET
- UNC Greensboro at Gardner-Webb · 8:30 PM ET
- South Dakota at Nebraska · 8:30 PM ET
- Bethune at Creighton · 9:00 PM ET
- UConn at Arizona · 9:00 PM ET
- Portland at Colorado · 9:00 PM ET
- Fresno St at San José St · 9:00 PM ET
- Oakland at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
- N Colorado at BYU · 9:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Missouri · 9:00 PM ET
- Weber St at Utah State · 9:00 PM ET
- N Dakota St at Colorado St · 9:00 PM ET
- UC Riverside at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
- Idaho at Nevada · 10:00 PM ET
- Washington St vs Hawai'i · 10:00 PM ET
- Texas Southern at San Diego St · 10:00 PM ET
- Fullerton at UCLA · 10:30 PM ET
- Louisiana at San Francisco · TBD
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.