Texas Southern Tigers vs San Diego State Aztecs basketball preview & prediction
Wed, Nov 18 · 10:00 PM ET · Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
Non-conferenceViejas Arena, San Diego, CA
Texas Southern
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #331
@
San Diego St
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #51
Wed, Nov 18 · 10:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 75.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Texas Southern is the faster team (78.1, #29 of 365) and San Diego St the slower (77.0, #38). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
75.0
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
72.9#59
Texas Southern
72.6#63
San Diego St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
San Diego St has the ball+14.2
Texas Southern has the ball−11.6
San Diego St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 55.7% #97 · TXSO allows 60.2% #325+8.7
✓Wins second chancesOR% 41.0% #40 · TXSO allows 44.1% #339+5.8
✗Coughs it upTO% 22.7% #308 · TXSO forces 18.6% #148 · ~16 turnovers−2.6
✓Gets to the lineFTR 56.5% #21 · TXSO allows 51.6% #311 · FT 78.5% #57+2.2
Texas Southern has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 37.7% #342 · SDSU allows 45.2% #82−10.5
✗Few second chancesOR% 24.7% #284 · SDSU allows 23.2% #46−4.0
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 17.9% #178 · SDSU forces 14.3% #288 · ~12 turnovers+2.5
✓Gets to the lineFTR 53.4% #37 · SDSU allows 38.9% #202 · FT 65.1% #256+0.5
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootTexas Southernoffense vsSan Diego Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Texas Southern shoots
37.8
2.4
24.4
35.4
San Diego St allows
35.2
10.2
13.9
40.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 51.6%#251 | 65.8%#270 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#75 | 9.1%#30 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.0%#117 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 27.5%#250 | 28.1%#94 | 32.5% |
San Diego Stoffense vsTexas Southerndefense
Share of shots by zone
San Diego St shoots
25.0
20.0
21.0
34.0
Texas Southern allows
54.1
1.0
4.1
40.8
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 68.0%#70 | 67.9%#284 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.0%#228 | 100.0%#348 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 47.6%#71 | 50.0%#285 | 34.7% |
| Three | 42.1%#43 | 28.6%#99 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineTexas Southern
−5.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#250 of 365
Off reb %
24.7%
#284
Def reb %
55.9%
#339
Turnover %
17.9%
#178
Forced TO %
18.6%
#148
FT rate
53.4%
#37
FT allowed
51.6%
#311
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.3
Defensive rebounding−4.2
Ball security+0.2
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn+4.2
Foul shots allowed−3.5
San Diego St
+4.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#110 of 365
Off reb %
41.0%
#40
Def reb %
76.8%
#46
Turnover %
22.7%
#308
Forced TO %
14.3%
#288
FT rate
56.5%
#21
FT allowed
38.9%
#202
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+3.1
Defensive rebounding+2.8
Ball security−3.2
Forcing turnovers−2.7
Foul shots drawn+5.0
Foul shots allowed−0.2
San Diego St has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.8 (#110 of 365) to Texas Southern’s −5.2 (#250).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notTexas Southern2026-27 numbers · last game: LSU, Nov 6
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 2-2 | 33.5 | 33 | — | Started last | 4.5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 7.7% | 0.0% | 3.5 | 70.0% | 13.7% | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 2-2 | 30.5 | 35 | — | Started last | 15.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 68.4% | 54.5% | 5.5 | 100.0% | 21.2% | |
| 3 | G | So | 6'3" | 2-2 | 30.0 | 32 | — | Started last | 12.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 16.1% | 0.0% | 3.5 | 77.8% | 39.7% | |
| 5 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 2-2 | 28.0 | 27 | — | Started last | 6.5 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 36.7% | 50.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 21.3% | |
| 9 | G | So | 6'8" | 2-0 | 20.0 | 21 | — | Bench | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 16.7% | 3.0 | 66.7% | 13.6% | |
| 35 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 2-2 | 17.0 | 25 | — | Started last | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 42.9% | — | 0.0 | 45.5% | 25.2% | |
| 2 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 13.0 | 11 | — | Bench | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 35.7% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 0.0% | 17.9% | |
| 12 | G | — | 6'3" | 2-0 | 12.0 | 10 | — | Bench | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 20.4% | |
| 11 | G | So | 6'5" | 1-0 | 15.0 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 32.8% | |
| 9 | F | Jr | 6'10" | 1-0 | 15.0 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 13.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 91.7% | 100.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 29.8% | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'2" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 3 | — | Bench | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesTexas Southern
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg cover +0.2
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +10.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | College of Biblical Studies Ambassadors | H | W 98–78 | — | — | — | — | 117.8 | 93.8 | 83.2 |
| Nov 6 | LSU | A | L 51–92 | +36.5 | L−4.5 | 161.0 | U143 | 67.6 | 122.0 | 75.4 |
| Nov 2 | Grand Canyon | A | L 79–103 | +29.0 | W+5.0 | 144.0 | O182 | 97.8 | 127.6 | 80.7 |
| Mar 12 | Alabama A&M | N | L 74–85 OT | +1.5 | L−9.5 | 142.5 | O159 | 97.1 | 111.5 | 76.2 |
| Mar 5 | Prairie View | H | L 59–70 | −1.5 | L−12.5 | 153.0 | U129 | 88.0 | 104.4 | 67.0 |
| Feb 28 | Jackson St | H | W 82–57 | −6.0 | W+19.0 | 152.0 | U139 | 115.5 | 80.3 | 71.0 |
| Feb 26 | Alcorn St | H | W 92–87 OT | −6.5 | L−1.5 | 145.0 | O179 | 115.6 | 109.3 | 79.6 |
| Feb 21 | Miss Valley St | A | L 71–72 | −11.5 | L−12.5 | 143.5 | U143 | 103.8 | 105.3 | 68.4 |
| Feb 19 | AR-Pine Bluff | A | W 83–64 | +1.0 | W+20.0 | 152.5 | U147 | 121.5 | 93.7 | 68.3 |
| Feb 16 | Southern | H | W 74–73 | +5.0 | W+6.0 | 152.0 | U147 | 101.6 | 100.2 | 72.8 |
San Diego St
Against the spread
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-0
avg cover +9.2
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +7.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Colorado | N | W 77–66 | −3.0 | W+8.0 | 152.5 | U143 | 103.6 | 88.8 | 74.3 |
| Nov 3 | Fullerton | H | W 102–78 | −13.5 | W+10.5 | 155.5 | O180 | 127.9 | 97.8 | 79.8 |
| Mar 14 | Utah State | N | L 62–73 | +2.5 | L−8.5 | 146.0 | U135 | 95.0 | 111.8 | 65.3 |
| Mar 13 | New Mexico | N | W 64–62 | −2.5 | L−0.5 | 150.5 | U126 | 96.8 | 93.7 | 66.1 |
| Mar 12 | Colorado St | N | W 71–62 | −6.5 | W+2.5 | 142.0 | U133 | 102.1 | 89.1 | 69.6 |
| Mar 6 | UNLV | H | W 89–86 | −9.0 | L−6.0 | 153.5 | O175 | 120.7 | 116.6 | 73.7 |
| Mar 3 | Boise St | A | L 77–86 | +1.0 | L−8.0 | 145.0 | O163 | 113.1 | 126.3 | 68.1 |
| Feb 28 | New Mexico | A | L 76–81 | +1.5 | L−3.5 | 149.0 | O157 | 108.1 | 115.3 | 70.3 |
| Feb 25 | Utah State | H | W 89–72 | +1.0 | W+18.0 | 147.0 | O161 | 128.0 | 103.5 | 69.5 |
| Feb 21 | Colorado St | A | L 74–83 | −2.5 | L−11.5 | 140.0 | O157 | 109.5 | 122.8 | 67.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeTexas SouthernSan Diego St
Efficiency
99.0
109.3
111.8
97.0
72.9
72.6
13.2
2.4
Shooting
37.7%
55.7%
35.9%
51.9%
27.5%
42.1%
65.1%
78.5%
53.4%
56.5%
Ball control & glass
17.9%
22.7%
18.6%
14.3%
24.7%
41.0%
44.1%
23.2%
9.6%
11.7%
16.7%
6.5%
Style
33.9%
33.0%
38.5%
34.6%
11.5%
8.4%
46.2%
55.4%
30.5%
32.3%
Roster
3.27
2.38
6'5"
6'6"
8.1%
14.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputTexas Southern
Returning minutes: 21.2%Returning production: 15.4%
Lost
- Zaire Hayes 25.5 mpg, 8.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Troy Hupstead 24.6 mpg, 12.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Bryce Roberts 24.6 mpg, 9.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Alex Anderson 22.0 mpg, 9.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jaylen Wysinger 21.0 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Zytarious Mortle 18.2 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Karris Bilal from Louisiana · 13.2 mpg, 3.5 ppg last season
- Ben Vungo from Jax State · 3.3 mpg, 1.0 ppg last season
- Jason Kimbrough from Bowling Green · 2.9 mpg, 0.9 ppg last season
- Xander Wedlow from St Bonaventure · 0.2 mpg, 0.0 ppg last season
- Josh Farmer no D1 minutes last season
- Sayed Sayed no D1 minutes last season
Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
San Diego St
Returning minutes: 14.6%Returning production: 14.0%
Lost
- Reese Dixon-Waters 29.2 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Miles Byrd 28.1 mpg, 10.4 ppg · transferred to Providence
- BJ Davis 22.3 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Creighton
- Taj DeGourville 19.4 mpg, 5.5 ppg · transferred to Nebraska
- Miles Heide 18.5 mpg, 5.4 ppg · transferred to Virginia Tech
- Sean Newman Jr. 15.5 mpg, 3.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Chance Gladden from Boston U · 32.4 mpg, 13.9 ppg last season
- Nick Anderson from Rice · 29.2 mpg, 15.5 ppg last season
- Isaiah Sy from Oregon St · 28.0 mpg, 10.0 ppg last season
- Bear Cherry from Sacramento St · 6.0 mpg, 3.0 ppg last season
- Jel Malek no D1 minutes last season
- Zach White no D1 minutes last season
Returns 15% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Wed, Nov 18
- Jackson St at Baylor · 12:00 PM ET
- Navy at Georgetown · 6:30 PM ET
- IU Indy at Penn State · 6:30 PM ET
- Detroit Mercy at E Michigan · 6:30 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Winthrop · 6:30 PM ET
- Samford at SC Upstate · 6:30 PM ET
- Tennessee Tech at UNC Asheville · 6:30 PM ET
- Binghamton at Lafayette · 7:00 PM ET
- Brown at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
- Wofford at Charleston So · 7:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at UIC · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at FDU · 7:00 PM ET
- UNC Wilmington at Long Island · 7:00 PM ET
- NC Central at George Mason · 7:00 PM ET
- Siena at St John's · 7:00 PM ET
- Vermont at Yale · 7:00 PM ET
- Morehead St at Ohio · 7:00 PM ET
- Elon at South Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Morgan St at NC A&T · 7:00 PM ET
- VMI at Longwood · 7:00 PM ET
- Furman at Radford · 7:00 PM ET
- FGCU at FAU · 7:00 PM ET
- Boston U at Merrimack · 7:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at La Salle · 7:00 PM ET
- Howard vs Duquesne · 7:00 PM ET
- James Madison at Towson · 7:00 PM ET
- Mercer at Presbyterian · 7:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Marquette · 7:30 PM ET
- Youngstown St at Cincinnati · 7:30 PM ET
- LSU N Orleans at Texas Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- Campbell at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
- Boston College at Harvard · 8:00 PM ET
- Wichita St at Loyola Chicago · 8:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at LSU · 8:00 PM ET
- New Hampshire at Stonehill · 8:00 PM ET
- Cornell at Syracuse · 8:00 PM ET
- Purdue FW at Bradley · 8:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at Arkansas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Incarnate Word at Texas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Florida A&M at UTSA · 8:00 PM ET
- UNC Greensboro at Gardner-Webb · 8:30 PM ET
- South Dakota at Nebraska · 8:30 PM ET
- Bethune at Creighton · 9:00 PM ET
- UConn at Arizona · 9:00 PM ET
- Portland at Colorado · 9:00 PM ET
- Fresno St at San José St · 9:00 PM ET
- Oakland at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
- N Colorado at BYU · 9:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Missouri · 9:00 PM ET
- Weber St at Utah State · 9:00 PM ET
- N Dakota St at Colorado St · 9:00 PM ET
- UC Riverside at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
- Idaho at Nevada · 10:00 PM ET
- Washington St vs Hawai'i · 10:00 PM ET
- Fullerton at UCLA · 10:30 PM ET
- Louisiana at San Francisco · TBD
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.