Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs Bradley Braves basketball preview & prediction
Wed, Nov 18 · 8:00 PM ET · Carver Arena, Peoria, IL
Non-conferenceESPN+Carver Arena, Peoria, IL
Purdue FW
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #237
@
Bradley
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #169
Wed, Nov 18 · 8:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Purdue FW is the faster team (71.1, #167 of 365) and Bradley the slower (63.3, #343). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.2
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.6#176
Purdue FW
69.1#279
Bradley
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Bradley has the ball−8.2
Purdue FW has the ball−5.1
Bradley has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 34.7% #355 · PFW allows 57.3% #300−5.4
✗Coughs it upTO% 23.7% #320 · PFW forces 21.1% #83 · ~16 turnovers−4.2
✓Wins second chancesOR% 37.8% #72 · PFW allows 30.8% #171+1.7
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 25.4% #305 · PFW allows 36.4% #179 · FT 73.3% #127−0.3
Purdue FW has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 19.7% #237 · BRAD forces 23.7% #44 · ~16 turnovers−3.7
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 50.0% #176 · BRAD allows 48.1% #128−1.3
✗Few second chancesOR% 25.6% #279 · BRAD allows 39.4% #310−0.1
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 19.7% #343 · BRAD allows 34.6% #161 · FT 83.3% #21−0.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootPurdue FWoffense vsBradleydefense
Share of shots by zone
Purdue FW shoots
42.6
6.6
8.2
42.6
Bradley allows
17.6
21.6
25.5
35.3
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 38.5%#346 | 55.6%#137 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 0.0%#323 | 54.5%#289 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 20.0%#279 | 30.8%#138 | 34.7% |
| Three | 50.0%#3 | 33.3%#185 | 32.5% |
Bradleyoffense vsPurdue FWdefense
Share of shots by zone
Bradley shoots
16.3
16.3
16.3
51.0
Purdue FW allows
56.4
7.3
7.3
29.1
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.5%#121 | 67.7%#282 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 12.5%#314 | 50.0%#243 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 12.5%#315 | 25.0%#85 | 34.7% |
| Three | 23.3%#322 | 31.3%#153 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul linePurdue FW
−4.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#245 of 365
Off reb %
25.6%
#279
Def reb %
69.2%
#171
Turnover %
19.7%
#237
Forced TO %
21.1%
#83
FT rate
19.7%
#343
FT allowed
36.4%
#179
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.0
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers+2.2
Foul shots drawn−4.6
Foul shots allowed+0.4
Bradley
−2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#218 of 365
Off reb %
37.8%
#72
Def reb %
60.6%
#310
Turnover %
23.7%
#320
Forced TO %
23.7%
#44
FT rate
25.4%
#305
FT allowed
34.6%
#161
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.1
Defensive rebounding−2.6
Ball security−3.9
Forcing turnovers+4.0
Foul shots drawn−3.1
Foul shots allowed+0.9
Bradley has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.6 (#218 of 365) to Purdue FW’s −4.8 (#245).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Purdue FW2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-2 | 25.5 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 39.5% | 27.3% | 5.5 | 50.0% | 23.0% | Active | |
| 9 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 2-2 | 23.5 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 58.8% | 28.6% | 3.5 | 100.0% | 24.0% | Active | |
| 1 | F | Sr | 6'6" | 2-2 | 21.0 | 14.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 76.5% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 28.2% | Active | |
| 20 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 2-2 | 20.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 75.0% | 100.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 10.8% | Active | |
| 4 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 2-0 | 19.5 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 56.3% | 42.9% | 3.5 | 100.0% | 23.1% | Active | |
| 5 | G | So | 6'0" | 2-2 | 18.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 35.7% | 33.3% | 3.0 | 100.0% | 25.0% | Active | |
| 2 | G | Jr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 15.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 91.7% | 75.0% | 2.0 | — | 10.4% | Active | |
| 7 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 15.0 | 12.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 68.8% | 50.0% | 4.0 | 66.7% | 35.7% | Active | |
| 24 | G | So | 6'5" | 2-0 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 90.9% | 75.0% | 4.0 | 50.0% | 31.1% | Active | |
| 3 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 1-0 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 30.0% | 50.0% | 2.0 | 100.0% | 19.8% | Missed last | |
| 11 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 1-0 | 17.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | — | 32.1% | Active | |
| 31 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 12.5% | Active | |
| 34 | F | Fr | 6'11" | 1-0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 22.3% | Active | |
| 13 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 33.1% | Active | |
| 23 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | Active |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesPurdue FW
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +2.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −3.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Albion Britons | H | W 103–65 | — | — | — | — | 130.3 | 82.2 | 79.0 |
| Nov 3 | Duquesne | A | L 71–78 | +9.5 | W+2.5 | 152.5 | U149 | 99.9 | 109.7 | 71.1 |
| Mar 3 | Green Bay | A | L 56–64 | +4.5 | L−3.5 | 145.0 | U120 | 96.7 | 110.6 | 57.9 |
| Feb 28 | IU Indy | A | W 87–81 | −1.0 | W+5.0 | 160.5 | O168 | 125.0 | 116.4 | 69.6 |
| Feb 25 | Wright St | H | L 70–74 | +1.0 | L−3.0 | 152.0 | U144 | 98.7 | 104.3 | 70.9 |
| Feb 22 | Cleveland St | A | W 92–86 | −3.0 | W+3.0 | 163.0 | O178 | 120.7 | 112.8 | 76.2 |
| Feb 18 | N Kentucky | A | L 71–87 | +6.0 | L−10.0 | 154.0 | O158 | 99.7 | 122.1 | 71.2 |
| Feb 15 | IU Indy | H | W 83–78 | −6.5 | L−1.5 | 158.5 | O161 | 110.7 | 104.1 | 75.0 |
| Feb 12 | Green Bay | A | L 59–76 | +1.5 | L−15.5 | 144.5 | U135 | 100.1 | 129.0 | 58.9 |
| Feb 7 | Wright St | A | L 68–73 | +7.0 | W+2.0 | 150.0 | U141 | 109.2 | 117.2 | 62.3 |
Bradley
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −10.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −25.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | Davidson | A | L 45–62 | +9.5 | L−7.5 | 138.5 | U107 | 66.3 | 91.3 | 67.9 |
| Nov 7 | Pacific | H | L 52–63 | +1.0 | L−10.0 | 140.5 | U115 | 82.1 | 99.5 | 63.3 |
| Nov 2 | Monmouth (IL) Fighting Scots | H | W 85–41 | — | — | — | — | 129.0 | 62.2 | 65.9 |
| Mar 18 | Dayton | H | L 66–80 | +2.5 | L−11.5 | 141.0 | O146 | 110.4 | 133.9 | 59.8 |
| Mar 7 | Northern Iowa | N | L 69–73 | +4.5 | W+0.5 | 126.5 | O142 | 108.9 | 115.3 | 63.3 |
| Mar 6 | Valparaiso | N | W 90–84 2OT | −5.0 | W+1.0 | 138.5 | O174 | 102.6 | 95.8 | 87.7 |
| Mar 1 | Murray St | H | W 87–78 | −4.0 | W+5.0 | 158.0 | O165 | 129.4 | 116.0 | 67.2 |
| Feb 24 | UIC | A | L 86–93 2OT | +2.0 | L−5.0 | 142.0 | O179 | 109.8 | 118.8 | 78.3 |
| Feb 21 | Illinois St | H | W 74–60 | −4.5 | W+9.5 | 144.5 | U134 | 115.3 | 93.5 | 64.2 |
| Feb 18 | Valparaiso | A | L 72–79 | −2.5 | L−9.5 | 142.5 | O151 | 108.5 | 119.0 | 66.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homePurdue FWBradley
Efficiency
103.8
104.4
108.4
104.7
70.6
69.1
1.8
5.3
Shooting
50.0%
34.7%
31.4%
34.5%
50.0%
23.3%
83.3%
73.3%
19.7%
25.4%
Ball control & glass
19.7%
23.7%
21.1%
23.7%
25.6%
37.8%
30.8%
39.4%
11.3%
11.1%
11.4%
3.4%
Style
42.6%
50.8%
28.2%
34.6%
15.5%
11.5%
66.7%
52.9%
45.9%
34.0%
Roster
2.86
2.50
6'4.1"
6'7.1"
28.2%
2.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputPurdue FW
Returning minutes: 28.2%Returning production: 25.4%
Lost
- Corey Hadnot II 33.2 mpg, 20.4 ppg · transferred to Houston
- Mikale Stevenson 29.8 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Maximus Nelson 27.5 mpg, 7.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Darius Duffy 21.6 mpg, 5.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Deangelo Elisee 13.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Yuval Levin 9.6 mpg, 3.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Anthony Isaac Jr. from Manhattan · 23.8 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
- Ashton Williamson from FIU · 18.4 mpg, 6.3 ppg last season
- Jaiden Arnold no D1 minutes last season
- Tamaje Izuagbe no D1 minutes last season
- Adam Walker no D1 minutes last season
- Luke Balanis no D1 minutes last season
Returns 28% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Bradley
Returning minutes: 13.0%Returning production: 8.7%
Lost
- Alex Huibregtse 31.2 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jaquan Johnson 30.4 mpg, 16.9 ppg · transferred to Iowa State
- AJ Smith 25.7 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ahmet Jonovic 24.7 mpg, 8.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Montana Wheeler 22.3 mpg, 8.5 ppg · transferred to Kansas St
- Corey Thomas 18.4 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Trevon Payton from AR-Pine Bluff · 33.8 mpg, 10.0 ppg last season
- Xander Alarie from Northeastern · 9.8 mpg, 3.6 ppg last season
- Josh Ibukunoluwa from High Point · 2.9 mpg, 1.3 ppg last season
- Gustavo Guimares no D1 minutes last season
- Noah Williams no D1 minutes last season
- Dimitrije Pavlovic no D1 minutes last season
Returns 13% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Wed, Nov 18
- Jackson St at Baylor · 12:00 PM ET
- Navy at Georgetown · 6:30 PM ET
- IU Indy at Penn State · 6:30 PM ET
- Detroit Mercy at E Michigan · 6:30 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Winthrop · 6:30 PM ET
- Samford at SC Upstate · 6:30 PM ET
- Tennessee Tech at UNC Asheville · 6:30 PM ET
- Binghamton at Lafayette · 7:00 PM ET
- Brown at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
- Wofford at Charleston So · 7:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at UIC · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at FDU · 7:00 PM ET
- UNC Wilmington at Long Island · 7:00 PM ET
- NC Central at George Mason · 7:00 PM ET
- Siena at St John's · 7:00 PM ET
- Vermont at Yale · 7:00 PM ET
- Morehead St at Ohio · 7:00 PM ET
- Elon at South Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Morgan St at NC A&T · 7:00 PM ET
- VMI at Longwood · 7:00 PM ET
- Furman at Radford · 7:00 PM ET
- FGCU at FAU · 7:00 PM ET
- Boston U at Merrimack · 7:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at La Salle · 7:00 PM ET
- Howard vs Duquesne · 7:00 PM ET
- James Madison at Towson · 7:00 PM ET
- Mercer at Presbyterian · 7:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Marquette · 7:30 PM ET
- Youngstown St at Cincinnati · 7:30 PM ET
- LSU N Orleans at Texas Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- Campbell at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
- Boston College at Harvard · 8:00 PM ET
- Wichita St at Loyola Chicago · 8:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at LSU · 8:00 PM ET
- New Hampshire at Stonehill · 8:00 PM ET
- Cornell at Syracuse · 8:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at Arkansas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Incarnate Word at Texas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Florida A&M at UTSA · 8:00 PM ET
- UNC Greensboro at Gardner-Webb · 8:30 PM ET
- South Dakota at Nebraska · 8:30 PM ET
- Bethune at Creighton · 9:00 PM ET
- UConn at Arizona · 9:00 PM ET
- Portland at Colorado · 9:00 PM ET
- Fresno St at San José St · 9:00 PM ET
- Oakland at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
- N Colorado at BYU · 9:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Missouri · 9:00 PM ET
- Weber St at Utah State · 9:00 PM ET
- N Dakota St at Colorado St · 9:00 PM ET
- UC Riverside at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
- Idaho at Nevada · 10:00 PM ET
- Washington St vs Hawai'i · 10:00 PM ET
- Texas Southern at San Diego St · 10:00 PM ET
- Fullerton at UCLA · 10:30 PM ET
- Louisiana at San Francisco · TBD
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.