CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCU Events Center, Boulder, CO

Portland

Efficiency #259

2025-26: 15-19 · 8-13 conf

Colorado

Efficiency #91

2025-26: 17-16 · 7-12 conf

Wed, Nov 18 · TBD

71.6

win 18%

Projected

82.3

win 82%

No line posted yet.

Model: COLO −10.7 · total 153.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Colorado 69.3, Portland 69.1 → 70.0 possessions

+3.7

Colorado offense vs Portland defense

+4.3

Portland offense vs Colorado defense

−2.3

Projected total

153.9

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Colorado offense vs Portland defense

+4.3

Portland offense vs Colorado defense

+2.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Colorado by 10.7

10.7

Portland side ◂▸ Colorado side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +10.6 against +10.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Colorado.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Colorado is the faster team (70.2, #87 of 365) and Portland the slower (69.7, #105). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

153.9

model

Projected team totals

71.6 / 82.3

Portland / Colorado

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.1#114

Portland

69.3#102

Colorado

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageColorado

Where Colorado scores: shooting

Colorado shoots an effective 52.9% (#108); Portland allows 52.7% (#255). Expect about 52.9%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Portland, Colorado's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Portland at about 34.2% of its shots from three, Colorado about 40.1%.

ClashColorado

Style clash: 3-point volume

Colorado rarely shoots threes (35.2% of its shots); Portland lets opponents take 45.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 40.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Portland has the ball

OffenseColorado allowsvs D1 avg

51.2% #188

52.6% #243

+0.9 pt/100

19.7% #342

15.3% #267

-0.9 pt/100

28.1% #266

29.6% #144

-1.2 pt/100

34.4% #197

36.6% #228

+0.1 pt/100

74.0% #131

—

+0.1 pt/100

Portland net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.0 pts/100

Colorado has the ball

OffensePortland allowsvs D1 avg

52.9% #108

52.7% #255

+2.4 pt/100

14.6% #46

17.0% #151

+1.3 pt/100

29.0% #235

32.5% #281

+0.0 pt/100

36.7% #139

32.6% #118

-0.1 pt/100

76.1% #50

—

+0.3 pt/100

Colorado net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Portlandoffense vsColoradodefense

Share of shots by zone

Portland shoots

41.7

8.2

15.3

34.8

Colorado allows

38.1

8.5

16.7

36.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.9%#53	57.7%#136	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.3%#74	35.7%#81	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.4%#208	43.6%#337	38.0%
Three	29.9%#344	36.3%#319	33.7%

Coloradooffense vsPortlanddefense

Share of shots by zone

Colorado shoots

40.5

8.7

16.1

34.7

Portland allows

35.3

5.5

13.9

45.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.1%#157	59.2%#200	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.5%#187	29.5%#14	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.5%#48	37.2%#136	38.0%
Three	35.2%#104	36.1%#308	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Portland

−2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#290 of 365

Off reb %

28.1%

#266

Def reb %

67.5%

#281

Turnover %

19.7%

#342

Forced TO %

17.0%

#151

FT rate

34.4%

#197

FT allowed

32.6%

#118

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding−0.6

Ball security−2.0

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed+0.7

Colorado

+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#164 of 365

Off reb %

29.0%

#235

Def reb %

70.4%

#144

Turnover %

14.6%

#46

Forced TO %

15.3%

#267

FT rate

36.7%

#139

FT allowed

36.6%

#228

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security+1.5

Forcing turnovers−1.0

Foul shots drawn+0.4

Foul shots allowed−0.4

Colorado has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.5 (#164 of 365) to Portland’s −2.6 (#290).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Portland2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Portland's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Joel Foxwell	G	Fr	6'1"	34-34	35.7	15.6	4.3	6.5	3.1	46.8%	31.9%	6.4	80.7%	29.3%
10	Garrett Nuckolls	G	Jr	6'6"	34-19	25.9	6.7	3.5	2.7	2.2	41.5%	17.8%	2.1	82.6%	20.9%
14	James O'Donnell	F	So	6'10"	34-23	22.5	10.0	4.4	1.1	1.9	65.1%	0.0%	0.0	60.5%	24.2%
35	Cameron Williams	F	Jr	6'8"	31-28	23.9	10.6	4.6	1.0	1.1	52.6%	26.8%	1.3	79.8%	24.7%
44	Mikah Ballew	G	So	6'5"	31-15	23.6	8.7	1.9	0.9	1.3	45.8%	33.6%	4.8	81.3%	23.0%
5	Dante Censori-Hercules	G	Fr	6'7"	33-12	20.5	3.2	3.5	1.4	0.6	53.2%	14.3%	0.4	58.5%	10.0%
1	Jermaine Ballisager Webb	C	Sr	7'1"	34-17	19.8	8.9	4.3	1.4	1.2	57.4%	35.5%	1.8	71.0%	24.7%
7	Matus Hronsky	F	Sr	6'8"	31-21	18.3	5.6	2.0	0.9	1.0	50.0%	30.8%	2.9	90.5%	19.3%
3	Timo George	F	Fr	6'8"	15-1	19.9	12.5	4.9	1.4	1.7	70.5%	18.2%	0.7	71.4%	28.3%
21	NaVaughn Long	G	Fr	6'6"	13-0	10.5	2.0	1.1	0.5	0.5	62.5%	55.6%	0.7	50.0%	12.1%
12	Kelson Gebbers	G	So	6'7"	15-0	5.2	0.9	0.7	0.1	0.3	50.0%	22.2%	0.6	50.0%	13.1%
2	Sam Noland	G	Sr	6'1"	13-0	4.1	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	83.3%	7.7%
11	Riley Parker	G	Sr	6'2"	1-0	19.0	4.0	1.0	2.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	80.0%	13.4%
8	Preston Lee	G	Fr	5'11"	6-0	2.3	1.3	0.0	0.2	0.0	87.5%	100.0%	0.2	50.0%	18.4%
9	Carlin Briggs	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Marchelo Moreira	G	So	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Colorado2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Barrington Hargress	G	Jr	6'1"	33-33	32.5	14.7	2.2	4.5	1.2	61.0%	48.1%	3.3	83.5%	22.3%
2	Isaiah Johnson	G	Fr	6'1"	32-15	30.6	16.9	2.9	3.0	1.4	57.1%	37.8%	4.6	82.1%	27.6%
8	Bangot Dak	F	Jr	7'0"	32-30	25.7	11.5	6.5	1.4	1.3	51.5%	25.9%	1.7	73.6%	26.4%
5	Josiah Sanders	G	Fr	6'5"	33-7	18.0	4.4	2.6	1.7	0.8	47.6%	12.5%	0.7	51.9%	17.0%
3	Alon Michaeli	F	Fr	6'9"	31-0	17.5	7.1	3.9	1.0	1.0	44.6%	29.0%	2.0	72.2%	27.3%
11	Jalin Holland	G	Fr	6'5"	31-10	17.5	4.9	2.7	0.8	1.0	44.1%	27.8%	1.7	54.2%	20.9%
15	Felix Kossaras	G	So	6'6"	28-17	16.4	4.6	1.5	0.4	0.5	60.8%	38.0%	1.8	75.0%	14.3%
50	Elijah Malone	C	Sr	6'10"	30-24	13.9	4.3	3.0	0.7	0.8	52.3%	28.6%	0.5	77.3%	19.1%
0	Ian Inman	G	Fr	6'6"	22-1	10.4	4.1	1.0	0.4	0.4	55.1%	36.7%	2.7	62.5%	22.4%
25	Fawaz Ifaola	C	Fr	7'0"	20-2	7.8	0.7	2.0	0.3	0.4	77.8%	—	0.0	0.0%	6.8%
42	Andrew Crawford	G	Fr	6'8"	9-0	5.3	1.6	0.7	0.3	0.3	65.0%	60.0%	0.6	50.0%	16.4%
41	Nick Randall	F	So	6'8"	2-0	1.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	29.1%
1	Jon Mani	G	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
33	Leonardo Van Elswyk	C	Fr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Portland2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Portland's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Joel Foxwell	G	Fr	6'1"	34-34	35.7	15.6	4.3	6.5	3.1	46.8%	31.9%	6.4	80.7%	29.3%
10	Garrett Nuckolls	G	Jr	6'6"	34-19	25.9	6.7	3.5	2.7	2.2	41.5%	17.8%	2.1	82.6%	20.9%
14	James O'Donnell	F	So	6'10"	34-23	22.5	10.0	4.4	1.1	1.9	65.1%	0.0%	0.0	60.5%	24.2%
35	Cameron Williams	F	Jr	6'8"	31-28	23.9	10.6	4.6	1.0	1.1	52.6%	26.8%	1.3	79.8%	24.7%
44	Mikah Ballew	G	So	6'5"	31-15	23.6	8.7	1.9	0.9	1.3	45.8%	33.6%	4.8	81.3%	23.0%
5	Dante Censori-Hercules	G	Fr	6'7"	33-12	20.5	3.2	3.5	1.4	0.6	53.2%	14.3%	0.4	58.5%	10.0%
1	Jermaine Ballisager Webb	C	Sr	7'1"	34-17	19.8	8.9	4.3	1.4	1.2	57.4%	35.5%	1.8	71.0%	24.7%
7	Matus Hronsky	F	Sr	6'8"	31-21	18.3	5.6	2.0	0.9	1.0	50.0%	30.8%	2.9	90.5%	19.3%
3	Timo George	F	Fr	6'8"	15-1	19.9	12.5	4.9	1.4	1.7	70.5%	18.2%	0.7	71.4%	28.3%
21	NaVaughn Long	G	Fr	6'6"	13-0	10.5	2.0	1.1	0.5	0.5	62.5%	55.6%	0.7	50.0%	12.1%
12	Kelson Gebbers	G	So	6'7"	15-0	5.2	0.9	0.7	0.1	0.3	50.0%	22.2%	0.6	50.0%	13.1%
2	Sam Noland	G	Sr	6'1"	13-0	4.1	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	83.3%	7.7%
11	Riley Parker	G	Sr	6'2"	1-0	19.0	4.0	1.0	2.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	80.0%	13.4%
8	Preston Lee	G	Fr	5'11"	6-0	2.3	1.3	0.0	0.2	0.0	87.5%	100.0%	0.2	50.0%	18.4%
9	Carlin Briggs	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Marchelo Moreira	G	So	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Portland

Against the spread

Season

15-17

Home

11-5

Road

2-11

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-18

Home

10-6

Road

3-10

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −3.8

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	San FranciscoAdjEM #148	N	L 65–82	+7.0	L−10.0	144.5	O147	97.0	122.3	67.0
Mar 6	Washington StAdjEM #174	N	W 74–68	+5.5	W+11.5	150.0	U142	106.3	97.7	69.6
Mar 5	PepperdineAdjEM #307	N	W 77–68	−3.5	W+5.5	154.0	U145	111.2	98.2	69.3
Feb 28	San DiegoAdjEM #269	H	W 87–74	−3.5	W+9.5	148.5	O161	125.8	107.0	69.2
Feb 25	#9GonzagaAdjEM #8	A	L 48–89	+27.0	L−14.0	150.0	U137	71.2	131.9	67.5
Feb 21	Seattle UAdjEM #125	A	L 59–71	+6.5	L−5.5	140.0	U130	86.0	103.5	68.6
Feb 18	PepperdineAdjEM #307	H	L 87–95	−7.0	L−15.0	151.0	O182	124.8	136.2	69.7
Feb 11	San DiegoAdjEM #269	A	L 58–71	+2.5	L−10.5	151.5	U129	91.0	111.4	63.7
Feb 7	Seattle UAdjEM #125	H	W 54–53	+3.5	W+4.5	143.0	U107	86.5	84.9	62.5
Feb 4	#6GonzagaAdjEM #8	H	W 87–80	+22.0	W+29.0	152.5	O167	117.7	108.2	73.9

Colorado

Against the spread

Season

17-16

Home

11-7

Road

3-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover −0.1

Covered the last gameCovered 4 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdogCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

17-16

Home

9-9

Road

6-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +2.9

Over 5 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdogOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 1	OklahomaAdjEM #47	N	L 86–90 OT	+9.0	W+5.0	162.0	O176	103.8	108.6	82.9
Mar 10	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	N	L 83–92	−1.0	L−10.0	165.0	O175	113.5	125.8	73.1
Mar 7	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	H	L 79–89	+13.5	W+3.5	156.0	O168	108.7	122.5	72.7
Mar 3	UtahAdjEM #177	A	W 92–78	−1.0	W+13.0	148.5	O170	143.9	122.0	63.9
Feb 28	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	A	L 62–102	+19.0	L−21.0	138.5	O164	89.7	147.5	69.1
Feb 25	Kansas StAdjEM #128	H	W 79–70	−6.0	W+3.0	163.0	U149	98.2	87.0	80.4
Feb 21	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	H	W 83–69	−3.5	W+10.5	162.5	U152	114.9	95.6	72.2
Feb 14	#22BYUAdjEM #26	A	L 86–90 OT	+15.5	W+11.5	162.0	O176	104.6	109.5	82.2
Feb 11	#16Texas TechAdjEM #21	A	L 44–78	+13.5	L−20.5	155.5	U122	69.1	122.4	63.7
Feb 7	Arizona StAdjEM #93	H	W 78–70	−3.5	W+4.5	158.0	U148	118.9	106.7	65.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

PortlandColorado

Efficiency

104.9

113.2

109.9

108.7

69.1

69.3

—

Shooting

51.2%

52.9%

54.7%

53.0%

29.9%

35.2%

74.0%

76.1%

34.4%

36.7%

Ball control & glass

19.7%

14.6%

17.0%

15.3%

28.1%

29.0%

32.5%

29.6%

10.7%

8.4%

6.4%

9.2%

Style

35.4%

35.2%

49.2%

43.9%

10.6%

16.7%

61.6%

55.2%

31.8%

34.7%

Roster

2.28

1.94

6'6.7"

6'5.6"

—

87.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Portland

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Portland's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Colorado

Returning minutes: 87.8%Returning production: 87.0%

Lost

Sebastian Rancik 24.6 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Florida St

Added

Leonardo Van Elswyk no D1 minutes last season
Jon Mani no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.