CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMcKale Center at ALKEME Arena, Tucson, AZ

UConn

Efficiency #10

2025-26: 34-6 · 19-4 conf

Arizona

Efficiency #3

2025-26: 36-3 · 19-2 conf

Wed, Nov 18 · TBD

69.3

win 27%

Projected

76.5

win 73%

No line posted yet.

Model: ARIZ −7.2 · total 145.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Arizona 70.1, UConn 66.4 → 68.2 possessions

−0.3

Arizona offense vs UConn defense

+0.5

UConn offense vs Arizona defense

−2.7

Projected total

145.8

Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Arizona offense vs UConn defense

+0.5

UConn offense vs Arizona defense

+2.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Arizona by 7.2

7.2

UConn side ◂▸ Arizona side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 145.7 against a projected 145.8, and the margin steps add to +7.1 against +7.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Arizona.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Arizona is the faster team (71.4, #38 of 365) and UConn the slower (65.7, #308). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.8

model

Projected team totals

69.3 / 76.5

UConn / Arizona

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.4#324

UConn

70.1#41

Arizona

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashArizona

Style match: 3-point volume

Arizona rarely shoots threes (26.3% of its shots); UConn runs teams off the line (36.0% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 26.7% — both habits push the same way.

DefenseUConn

UConn's shot-blocking

UConn ranks #12 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.6% of Arizona's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageArizona

Where Arizona scores: the offensive glass

Arizona rebounds 38.4% of its own misses (#5); UConn lets opponents grab 28.8% of their own misses (#99). Expect about 35.2%, 4.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Arizona averages 71.4 possessions per 40, UConn 65.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Arizona, Arizona's defense, UConn's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UConn at about 39.4% of its shots from three, Arizona about 26.7%.

AdvantageUConn

Where UConn struggles: shooting

UConn shoots an effective 54.3% (#59); Arizona allows 45.3% (#4). Expect about 50.0%, 1.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions.

UConn has the ball

OffenseArizona allowsvs D1 avg

54.3% #59

45.3% #4

-1.9 pt/100

16.4% #163

16.3% #200

+0.6 pt/100

35.7% #30

26.9% #34

+1.2 pt/100

29.9% #313

27.1% #25

-0.9 pt/100

72.4% #192

—

+0.0 pt/100

UConn net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.9 pts/100

Arizona has the ball

OffenseUConn allowsvs D1 avg

54.7% #45

45.7% #7

-1.2 pt/100

15.1% #72

17.8% #107

+0.4 pt/100

38.4% #5

28.8% #99

+2.9 pt/100

43.9% #11

40.7% #308

+1.0 pt/100

73.4% #156

—

+0.1 pt/100

Arizona net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

UConnoffense vsArizonadefense

Share of shots by zone

UConn shoots

37.7

7.8

14.2

40.3

Arizona allows

27.4

11.5

23.6

37.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.1%#36	53.1%#25	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.4%#188	34.9%#55	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.9%#17	35.9%#104	38.0%
Three	34.4%#150	31.4%#42	33.7%

Arizonaoffense vsUConndefense

Share of shots by zone

Arizona shoots

40.7

12.4

21.2

25.7

UConn allows

40.0

7.0

17.3

35.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.0%#71	50.8%#6	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.0%#50	45.3%#306	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.9%#61	34.8%#70	38.0%
Three	36.6%#37	30.2%#8	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

UConn

+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#160 of 365

Off reb %

35.7%

#30

Def reb %

71.2%

#99

Turnover %

16.4%

#163

Forced TO %

17.8%

#107

FT rate

29.9%

#313

FT allowed

40.7%

#308

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.7

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security+0.2

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−1.3

Foul shots allowed−1.4

Arizona

+9.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#3 of 365

Off reb %

38.4%

Def reb %

73.1%

#34

Turnover %

15.1%

#72

Forced TO %

16.3%

#200

FT rate

43.9%

#11

FT allowed

27.1%

#25

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.6

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn+2.3

Foul shots allowed+2.1

Arizona has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.0 (#3 of 365) to UConn’s +0.6 (#160).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UConn2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Silas Demary Jr.	G	Jr	6'4"	39-38	28.4	10.1	4.5	5.9	2.2	50.9%	38.5%	2.3	80.1%	23.7%
1	Solo Ball	G	Jr	6'4"	39-39	28.3	12.8	3.0	1.5	1.2	48.4%	30.0%	6.6	85.2%	28.7%
24	Braylon Mullins	G	Fr	6'6"	33-29	28.2	12.0	3.5	1.4	1.2	52.4%	33.5%	6.5	88.9%	26.7%
23	Jayden Ross	F	Jr	6'7"	38-0	17.5	4.6	2.5	0.8	0.6	60.7%	39.1%	1.7	69.2%	15.0%
0	Malachi Smith	G	Sr	6'1"	40-2	15.9	3.6	1.5	3.0	0.9	46.1%	44.7%	1.2	53.2%	17.9%
12	Eric Reibe	C	Fr	7'1"	40-5	13.8	5.9	3.3	0.5	0.6	67.1%	30.8%	0.3	52.1%	22.6%
3	Jaylin Stewart	F	Jr	6'7"	32-12	16.2	4.2	2.6	1.1	0.7	51.3%	34.5%	1.7	59.3%	17.2%
4	Dwayne Koroma	F	Sr	6'8"	16-0	5.8	1.5	0.9	0.2	0.3	56.3%	—	0.0	54.5%	17.2%
9	Alec Millender	G	Sr	6'1"	18-0	3.3	0.6	0.3	0.4	0.2	40.9%	14.3%	0.4	66.7%	15.1%
77	Uros Paunovic	G	Jr	6'3"	12-0	1.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	—	7.9%
10	Rrezon Elezaj	C	Fr	7'1"	4-0	1.3	0.0	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	23.0%
13	Jacob Ross	F	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Arizona2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Ivan Kharchenkov	F	Fr	6'7"	39-39	28.4	10.4	4.3	2.3	1.5	54.6%	31.7%	2.7	72.3%	20.9%
13	Motiejus Krivas	C	Jr	7'2"	39-39	25.2	10.4	8.2	1.1	1.4	57.7%	30.8%	0.3	78.0%	21.4%
2	Dwayne Aristode	F	Fr	6'8"	35-0	13.3	3.8	1.7	0.7	0.4	64.6%	46.2%	1.9	50.0%	14.3%
15	Sidi Gueye	F	Fr	6'11"	25-0	3.6	1.3	0.8	0.2	0.2	72.2%	—	0.0	63.6%	17.3%
21	Evan Nelson	G	Sr	6'2"	25-0	3.3	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.3	53.8%	40.0%	0.4	—	13.6%
22	Addison Arnold	G	So	6'3"	20-0	2.3	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.1	15.4%	0.0%	0.1	100.0%	20.1%
42	Sven Djopmo	G	So	6'2"	19-0	1.9	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.1	57.1%	0.0%	0.1	40.0%	15.8%
11	Jackson Cook	G	So	6'3"	10-0	1.4	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	0.0%	13.2%
7	Jackson Francois	G	Sr	6'5"	10-0	1.4	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.2	66.7%	—	0.0	—	19.1%
6	Bryce James	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
20	Mabil Mawut	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UConn2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Silas Demary Jr.	G	Jr	6'4"	39-38	28.4	10.1	4.5	5.9	2.2	50.9%	38.5%	2.3	80.1%	23.7%
1	Solo Ball	G	Jr	6'4"	39-39	28.3	12.8	3.0	1.5	1.2	48.4%	30.0%	6.6	85.2%	28.7%
24	Braylon Mullins	G	Fr	6'6"	33-29	28.2	12.0	3.5	1.4	1.2	52.4%	33.5%	6.5	88.9%	26.7%
23	Jayden Ross	F	Jr	6'7"	38-0	17.5	4.6	2.5	0.8	0.6	60.7%	39.1%	1.7	69.2%	15.0%
0	Malachi Smith	G	Sr	6'1"	40-2	15.9	3.6	1.5	3.0	0.9	46.1%	44.7%	1.2	53.2%	17.9%
12	Eric Reibe	C	Fr	7'1"	40-5	13.8	5.9	3.3	0.5	0.6	67.1%	30.8%	0.3	52.1%	22.6%
3	Jaylin Stewart	F	Jr	6'7"	32-12	16.2	4.2	2.6	1.1	0.7	51.3%	34.5%	1.7	59.3%	17.2%
4	Dwayne Koroma	F	Sr	6'8"	16-0	5.8	1.5	0.9	0.2	0.3	56.3%	—	0.0	54.5%	17.2%
9	Alec Millender	G	Sr	6'1"	18-0	3.3	0.6	0.3	0.4	0.2	40.9%	14.3%	0.4	66.7%	15.1%
77	Uros Paunovic	G	Jr	6'3"	12-0	1.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	—	7.9%
10	Rrezon Elezaj	C	Fr	7'1"	4-0	1.3	0.0	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	23.0%
13	Jacob Ross	F	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

UConn

Against the spread

Season

17-23

Home

4-13

Road

5-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover −0.8

Covered 5 straightCovered 4 of 7 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

17-22-1

Home

7-9-1

Road

5-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −4.3

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 7 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 6	#1MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 63–69	+6.5	W+0.5	146.0	U132	96.3	105.4	65.4
Apr 4	#3IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	W 71–62	+1.5	W+10.5	139.0	U133	111.8	97.6	63.5
Mar 29	#1DukeAdjEM #2	N	W 73–72	+4.5	W+5.5	135.5	O145	116.3	114.7	62.8
Mar 27	#3Michigan StAdjEM #11	N	W 67–63	−2.0	W+2.0	136.0	U130	105.4	99.1	63.6
Mar 22	#7UCLAAdjEM #37	N	W 73–57	−5.5	W+10.5	136.0	U130	115.9	90.5	63.0
Mar 20	#15FurmanAdjEM #163	N	W 82–71	−21.0	L−10.0	135.0	O153	125.3	108.5	65.4
Mar 14	#13St John'sAdjEM #16	A	L 52–72	−2.0	L−22.0	139.5	U124	82.7	114.5	62.9
Mar 13	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	N	W 67–51	−14.0	W+2.0	139.0	U118	112.6	85.7	59.5
Mar 12	XavierAdjEM #129	N	W 93–68	−16.5	W+8.5	151.0	O161	144.4	105.5	64.4
Mar 7	MarquetteAdjEM #100	A	L 62–68	−10.0	L−16.0	142.5	U130	92.2	101.1	67.2

Arizona

Against the spread

Season

23-14-2

Home

9-8

Road

4-4-2

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 10 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

20-19

Home

8-9

Road

6-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +2.7

Over in the last gameOver in 6 of 10 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 4	#1MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 73–91	−1.0	L−19.0	157.5	O164	93.6	116.6	78.0
Mar 28	#2PurdueAdjEM #9	N	W 79–64	−5.0	W+10.0	152.5	U143	121.0	98.0	65.3
Mar 26	#4ArkansasAdjEM #19	N	W 109–88	−8.0	W+13.0	165.5	O197	136.4	110.1	79.9
Mar 22	#9Utah StateAdjEM #24	N	W 78–66	−11.5	W+0.5	154.0	U144	121.2	102.5	64.4
Mar 20	#16Long IslandAdjEM #195	N	W 92–58	−30.5	W+3.5	148.0	O150	130.1	82.0	70.7
Mar 14	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	N	W 79–74	−1.5	W+3.5	138.5	O153	120.2	112.6	65.7
Mar 13	#7Iowa StateAdjEM #7	N	W 82–80	−3.5	L−1.5	144.5	O162	123.9	120.8	66.2
Mar 12	UCFAdjEM #70	N	W 81–59	−15.5	W+6.5	158.5	U140	118.4	86.2	68.4
Mar 7	ColoradoAdjEM #91	A	W 89–79	−13.5	L−3.5	156.0	O168	122.5	108.7	72.7
Mar 2	#6Iowa StateAdjEM #7	H	W 73–57	−7.0	W+9.0	149.0	U130	109.3	85.4	66.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

UConnArizona

Efficiency

116.7

119.5

98.2

96.3

66.4

70.1

—

Shooting

54.3%

54.7%

56.1%

54.6%

34.4%

36.6%

72.4%

73.4%

29.9%

43.9%

Ball control & glass

16.4%

15.1%

17.8%

16.3%

35.7%

38.4%

28.8%

26.9%

8.5%

8.6%

10.1%

8.5%

Style

40.9%

26.3%

45.8%

49.0%

11.7%

16.9%

64.9%

54.0%

27.5%

29.4%

Roster

2.62

1.83

6'5.5"

6'9.4"

70.6%

36.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

UConn

Returning minutes: 70.6%Returning production: 63.9%

Lost

Alex Karaban 34.3 mpg, 13.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tarris Reed Jr. 23.9 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jacob Furphy 0.9 mpg, 0.1 ppg · transferred to Boston College

Added

Jacob Ross no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 71% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Arizona

Returning minutes: 36.3%Returning production: 33.7%

Lost

Jaden Bradley 30.7 mpg, 13.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Brayden Burries 29.7 mpg, 16.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Koa Peat 25.7 mpg, 13.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Anthony Dell'Orso 20.9 mpg, 8.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tobe Awaka 20.7 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Mabil Mawut no D1 minutes last season
Bryce James no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 36% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Nov 19	2025-26	Arizona 71 – 67 UConn

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.