CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJenny Craig Pavilion, San Diego, CA
UC Riverside
Efficiency #288
2025-26: 10-22 · 5-15 conf
@
San Diego
Efficiency #269
2025-26: 12-21 · 6-14 conf
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
72.9
win 34%
Projected
77.7
win 66%
No line posted yet.
Model: USD −4.8 · total 150.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: San Diego 68.8, UC Riverside 69.1 → 69.6 possessions
+2.7
San Diego offense vs UC Riverside defense
+0.2
UC Riverside offense vs San Diego defense
−0.6
Projected total
150.6
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
San Diego offense vs UC Riverside defense
+0.2
UC Riverside offense vs San Diego defense
+0.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
San Diego by 4.8
4.8
UC Riverside side ◂▸ San Diego side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 150.5 against a projected 150.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help San Diego.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UC Riverside is the faster team (71.1, #49 of 365) and San Diego the slower (68.8, #159). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.6
model
Projected team totals
72.9 / 77.7
UC Riverside / San Diego
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.1#117
UC Riverside
68.8#136
San Diego

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageUC Riverside
Where UC Riverside struggles: ball control
UC Riverside turns it over on 19.0% of possessions (#322); San Diego forces turnovers on 18.9% of opponent possessions (#55). Expect about 19.4%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions.
ClashSan Diego
Style clash: 3-point volume
San Diego takes 43.7% of its shots from three; UC Riverside runs teams off the line (31.7% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 37.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
UC Riverside has the ball
OffenseSan Diego allowsvs D1 avg
48.9% #291
54.7% #320
+0.5 pt/100
19.0% #322
18.9% #55
-3.3 pt/100
27.8% #275
34.5% #328
+0.1 pt/100
35.0% #177
38.8% #281
+0.3 pt/100
74.2% #120
—
+0.2 pt/100
UC Riverside net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.2 pts/100
San Diego has the ball
OffenseUC Riverside allowsvs D1 avg
51.2% #185
52.7% #252
+1.0 pt/100
17.5% #237
15.5% #250
+0.5 pt/100
28.1% #262
30.0% #159
-1.1 pt/100
25.8% #358
40.9% #312
-0.1 pt/100
74.7% #95
—
+0.2 pt/100
San Diego net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
UC Riversideoffense vsSan Diegodefense
Share of shots by zone
UC Riverside shoots
San Diego allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#23463.2%#32858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.6%#27450.0%#35439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.0%#22447.3%#36138.0%
Three31.6%#30132.7%#10033.7%
San Diegooffense vsUC Riversidedefense
Share of shots by zone
San Diego shoots
UC Riverside allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.6%#17459.1%#19458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.9%#27035.6%#7639.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.6%#16844.0%#34038.0%
Three34.6%#14133.5%#15933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
UC Riverside
−4.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#339 of 365
Off reb %
27.8%
#275
Def reb %
70.0%
#159
Turnover %
19.0%
#322
Forced TO %
15.5%
#250
FT rate
35.0%
#177
FT allowed
40.9%
#312
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security−1.6
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed−1.5
San Diego
−4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#334 of 365
Off reb %
28.1%
#262
Def reb %
65.5%
#328
Turnover %
17.5%
#237
Forced TO %
18.9%
#55
FT rate
25.8%
#358
FT allowed
38.8%
#281
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security−0.5
Forcing turnovers+1.5
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−0.9

San Diego has more extra scoring chances per game: −4.3 (#334 of 365) to UC Riverside’s −4.5 (#339).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UC Riverside2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UC Riverside's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
10Marqui Worthy Jr.GJr6'4"32-3235.016.44.73.03.350.0%33.1%4.675.9%29.0%
12Andrew HendersonGSr6'5"32-2933.318.14.92.02.149.5%33.9%7.979.5%32.6%
9Osiris GradyFJr6'9"32-2430.910.25.71.71.846.8%20.9%1.364.6%22.0%
1De'Undrae Perteete Jr.GSo6'5"27-2127.56.73.22.40.958.7%41.6%2.972.7%13.1%
8BJ KollyFSr6'10"30-3024.58.75.51.42.552.4%0.0%0.477.1%23.2%
44Jailen Daniel-DaltonFSr6'6"25-1724.26.24.20.91.048.8%17.9%1.668.4%16.3%
0Tyler JonesGSo6'2"30-513.32.91.30.90.348.0%33.9%2.077.8%13.3%
13Ben WallerGFr6'6"28-213.64.32.40.60.649.5%36.6%1.578.8%18.4%
23Dylan GodfreyFJr6'8"24-09.83.41.40.60.547.6%35.6%1.966.7%23.2%
22Denzel HinesFJr6'6"6-09.71.32.70.51.030.0%0.0%0.7100.0%16.5%
2EJ SpillmanGFr6'4"12-03.50.80.20.30.130.0%25.0%0.3—21.3%
34Daniel TobilobaCJr7'0"8-03.30.31.10.00.016.7%—0.0—13.2%
32Amaury McKinneyFFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
35Gavin HaaseGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7Parker StraussGSo6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
UC RiversideSan Diego
Efficiency
104.1
106.6
110.7
112.0
69.1
68.8
—
—
Shooting
48.9%
51.2%
49.9%
50.8%
31.6%
34.6%
74.2%
74.7%
35.0%
25.8%
Ball control & glass
19.0%
17.5%
15.5%
18.9%
27.8%
28.1%
30.0%
34.5%
10.1%
10.0%
8.6%
10.1%
Style
38.3%
43.7%
44.0%
39.6%
11.2%
15.1%
49.7%
59.1%
25.0%
39.6%
Roster
3.07
3.00
6'6.1"
6'4.7"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
UC Riverside
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UC Riverside's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

San Diego
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted San Diego's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Fri, Nov 212025-26UC Riverside 85 – 71 San Diego

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.