South Dakota Coyotes vs Nebraska Cornhuskers basketball preview & prediction
Wed, Nov 18 · 8:30 PM ET · Pinnacle Bank Arena, Lincoln, NE
Non-conferenceBTNPinnacle Bank Arena, Lincoln, NE
South Dakota
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #293
@
25Nebraska
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #16
Wed, Nov 18 · 8:30 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 73.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, South Dakota is the faster team (80.4, #15 of 365) and Nebraska the slower (71.6, #151). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
73.4
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
74.0#30
South Dakota
69.9#226
Nebraska
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Nebraska has the ball+12.2
South Dakota has the ball−7.0
Nebraska has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 58.3% #48 · SDAK allows 62.4% #338+11.3
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.1% #118 · SDAK forces 16.8% #214 · ~12 turnovers+1.9
✗Few second chancesOR% 32.2% #165 · SDAK allows 22.2% #30−1.8
✓Gets to the lineFTR 45.6% #83 · SDAK allows 36.8% #185 · FT 76.9% #75+0.8
South Dakota has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 19.9% #248 · NEB forces 24.4% #32 · ~17 turnovers−4.4
✗Few second chancesOR% 28.6% #233 · NEB allows 29.7% #153−1.3
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 55.7% #94 · NEB allows 41.9% #42−1.2
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 47.5% #68 · NEB allows 22.9% #34 · FT 74.1% #117−0.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootSouth Dakotaoffense vs#25Nebraskadefense
Share of shots by zone
South Dakota shoots
48.6
7.2
1.8
42.3
Nebraska allows
27.8
3.3
12.2
56.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.3%#163 | 56.0%#151 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 62.5%#42 | 33.3%#125 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 0.0%#327 | 27.3%#106 | 34.7% |
| Three | 31.4%#199 | 25.4%#53 | 32.5% |
#25Nebraskaoffense vsSouth Dakotadefense
Share of shots by zone
Nebraska shoots
36.5
7.1
8.2
48.2
South Dakota allows
39.0
9.8
12.2
39.0
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 74.2%#23 | 62.5%#229 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 66.7%#29 | 25.0%#76 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 85.7%#6 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 35.2%#124 | 54.2%#357 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineSouth Dakota
+3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#135 of 365
Off reb %
28.6%
#233
Def reb %
77.8%
#30
Turnover %
19.9%
#248
Forced TO %
16.8%
#214
FT rate
47.5%
#68
FT allowed
36.8%
#185
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding+3.1
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn+2.6
Foul shots allowed+0.3
#25Nebraska
+13.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#29 of 365
Off reb %
32.2%
#165
Def reb %
70.3%
#153
Turnover %
16.1%
#118
Forced TO %
24.4%
#32
FT rate
45.6%
#83
FT allowed
22.9%
#34
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers+4.5
Foul shots drawn+2.1
Foul shots allowed+3.9
Nebraska has more extra scoring chances per game: +13.0 (#29 of 365) to South Dakota’s +3.0 (#135).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notSouth Dakota2026-27 numbers · last game: Fullerton, Nov 7
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | G | So | 6'4" | 3-3 | 27.7 | 32 | — | Started last | 20.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 0.7 | 77.8% | 27.8% | |
| 2 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 3-3 | 27.0 | 31 | — | Started last | 5.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 40.0% | 18.2% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 12.4% | |
| 44 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-3 | 24.3 | 24 | — | Started last | 17.0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 57.6% | 36.4% | 7.3 | 100.0% | 30.6% | |
| 13 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 3-2 | 23.0 | 23 | — | Bench | 10.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 36.7% | 20.0% | 3.3 | 76.9% | 30.9% | |
| 9 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-1 | 22.0 | 27 | — | Started last | 11.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 62.5% | 42.9% | 2.3 | 76.9% | 24.6% | |
| 15 | C | Jr | 6'10" | 3-3 | 19.0 | 17 | — | Started last | 10.7 | 6.0 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 76.5% | — | 0.0 | 54.5% | 26.9% | |
| 21 | F | Jr | 6'5" | 3-0 | 15.7 | 18 | — | Bench | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 4.0 | 50.0% | 16.0% | |
| 8 | F | Jr | 6'10" | 3-0 | 12.0 | 13 | — | Bench | 3.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 83.3% | 13.9% | |
| 19 | G | So | 6'5" | 2-0 | 12.0 | 12 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 17.8% | |
| 34 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 3-0 | 8.0 | 1 | — | Bench | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 14.0% | |
| 6 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 8.0 | 2 | — | Bench | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 2.0 | — | 16.5% | |
| 3 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 1-0 | 13.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | — | 16.4% | |
| 0 | G | Fr | 6'0" | 1-0 | 8.0 | — | — | Missed last | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 2.0 | 100.0% | 19.7% | |
| 22 | F | So | 6'7" | 1-0 | 2.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesSouth Dakota
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-2
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −4.2
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
1-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +14.8
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Fullerton | H | L 85–87 | −1.0 | L−3.0 | 176.0 | U172 | 102.9 | 105.3 | 82.6 |
| Nov 4 | N Kentucky | H | L 94–102 | +2.5 | L−5.5 | 162.5 | O196 | 120.4 | 130.6 | 78.1 |
| Nov 2 | Mount Marty Lancers | H | W 95–57 | — | — | — | — | 125.7 | 75.4 | 75.6 |
| Mar 6 | Omaha | N | L 62–76 | +2.0 | L−12.0 | 151.5 | U138 | 95.8 | 117.4 | 64.7 |
| Feb 28 | S Dakota St | H | W 75–70 | +3.0 | W+8.0 | 151.0 | U145 | 108.0 | 100.8 | 69.4 |
| Feb 25 | Omaha | H | W 89–72 | +1.5 | W+18.5 | 153.5 | O161 | 121.5 | 98.3 | 73.3 |
| Feb 21 | Oral Roberts | A | L 62–67 | −1.0 | L−6.0 | 151.5 | U129 | 85.4 | 92.2 | 72.6 |
| Feb 19 | Denver | A | L 70–90 | +6.0 | L−14.0 | 162.5 | U160 | 107.3 | 137.9 | 65.3 |
| Feb 11 | North Dakota | H | L 71–72 | −1.5 | L−2.5 | 156.5 | U143 | 106.2 | 107.7 | 66.8 |
| Feb 7 | S Dakota St | A | W 68–67 | +11.5 | W+12.5 | 157.5 | U135 | 97.6 | 96.1 | 69.7 |
#25Nebraska
Against the spread
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-0
avg cover +6.8
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total −7.8
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Providence | N | W 67–58 | −2.5 | W+6.5 | 158.5 | U125 | 95.7 | 82.8 | 70.0 |
| Nov 2 | Le Moyne | H | W 106–64 | −35.0 | W+7.0 | 152.0 | O170 | 144.7 | 87.4 | 73.2 |
| Mar 26 | #9Iowa | N | L 71–77 | −1.5 | L−7.5 | 131.0 | O148 | 117.4 | 127.4 | 60.5 |
| Mar 21 | #5Vanderbilt | N | W 74–72 | +2.0 | W+4.0 | 147.5 | U146 | 115.8 | 112.7 | 63.9 |
| Mar 19 | #13Troy | N | W 76–47 | −13.0 | W+16.0 | 139.5 | U123 | 125.1 | 77.4 | 60.8 |
| Mar 13 | #18Purdue | N | L 58–74 | +4.5 | L−11.5 | 146.0 | U132 | 95.9 | 122.4 | 60.5 |
| Mar 8 | Iowa | H | W 84–75 OT | −5.0 | W+4.0 | 136.5 | O159 | 112.8 | 100.7 | 74.5 |
| Mar 3 | UCLA | A | L 52–72 | −1.0 | L−21.0 | 144.5 | U124 | 85.7 | 118.7 | 60.6 |
| Feb 28 | USC | A | W 82–67 | −5.0 | W+10.0 | 148.5 | O149 | 119.1 | 97.3 | 68.8 |
| Feb 25 | Maryland | H | W 74–61 | −16.5 | L−3.5 | 141.0 | U135 | 116.4 | 95.9 | 63.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSouth Dakota#25Nebraska
Efficiency
104.1
113.1
112.6
93.6
74.0
69.9
-1.7
-1.9
Shooting
55.7%
58.3%
62.0%
63.3%
31.4%
35.2%
74.1%
76.9%
47.5%
45.6%
Ball control & glass
19.9%
16.1%
16.8%
24.4%
28.6%
32.2%
22.2%
29.7%
10.0%
3.5%
9.9%
8.3%
Style
41.8%
47.4%
49.2%
40.5%
12.8%
8.1%
41.7%
68.4%
38.7%
35.1%
Roster
3.18
3.42
6'4.7"
6'7.3"
21.4%
39.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSouth Dakota
Returning minutes: 21.4%Returning production: 15.6%
Lost
- Jordan Crawford 31.2 mpg, 14.4 ppg · transferred to Missouri
- Uzziah Buntyn 29.4 mpg, 11.7 ppg · transferred to N Illinois
- Cameron Fens 25.3 mpg, 14.4 ppg · transferred to North Carolina
- Isaac Bruns 19.3 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to USC
- Silas Bennion 14.4 mpg, 2.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Evan Anderson 13.1 mpg, 2.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jahni Summers from Sacramento St · 25.8 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
- Melo Sanchez from C Connecticut · 23.9 mpg, 9.2 ppg last season
- Kajus Kublickas from Pacific · 20.2 mpg, 5.6 ppg last season
- Stef van Bussel from Duquesne · 3.0 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
- Cade Kelderman from Iowa State · 1.8 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Josh Townley-Thomas from Creighton · 0.1 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
#25Nebraska
Returning minutes: 39.8%Returning production: 42.4%
Lost
- Sam Hoiberg 32.3 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Rienk Mast 28.5 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jamarques Lawrence 27.9 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Berke Buyuktuncel 22.9 mpg, 6.2 ppg · transferred to Vanderbilt
- Jared Garcia 6.7 mpg, 2.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kendall Blue 1.9 mpg, 0.4 ppg · transferred to St Thomas
Added
- Trevan Leonhardt from Utah Valley · 34.5 mpg, 11.9 ppg last season
- Boden Kapke from Boston College · 26.8 mpg, 10.6 ppg last season
- Damon Wilkinson from S Dakota St · 24.0 mpg, 13.9 ppg last season
- Sam Orme from Belmont · 23.2 mpg, 11.5 ppg last season
- Taj DeGourville from San Diego St · 19.4 mpg, 5.5 ppg last season
- Kadyn Betts from Montana · 1.7 mpg, 0.8 ppg last season
Returns 40% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Wed, Nov 18
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- UC Riverside at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
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- Texas Southern at San Diego St · 10:00 PM ET
- Fullerton at UCLA · 10:30 PM ET
- Louisiana at San Francisco · TBD
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.