CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceJohn J. Lee Amphitheater, New Haven, CT

Vermont

Efficiency #199

2025-26: 22-12 · 14-5 conf

Yale

Efficiency #57

2025-26: 24-7 · 12-4 conf

Wed, Nov 18 · TBD

68.0

win 19%

Projected

78.0

win 81%

No line posted yet.

Model: YALE −10.0 · total 145.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Yale 66.6, Vermont 66.5 → 64.8 possessions

−7.6

Yale offense vs Vermont defense

+5.8

Vermont offense vs Yale defense

−0.5

Projected total

145.9

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Yale offense vs Vermont defense

+5.8

Vermont offense vs Yale defense

+0.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.7

Yale by 10.0

10.0

Vermont side ◂▸ Yale side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Yale.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Yale is the faster team (65.6, #315 of 365) and Vermont the slower (64.4, #346). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

64.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.9

model

Projected team totals

68.0 / 78.0

Vermont / Yale

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.5#317

Vermont

66.6#316

Yale

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Yale averages 65.6 possessions per 40, Vermont 64.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 63 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageYale

Where Yale scores: ball control

Yale turns it over on 14.0% of possessions (#22); Vermont forces turnovers on 14.8% of opponent possessions (#305). Expect about 13.9%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.5 points per 100 possessions.

ClashVermont

Style match: 3-point volume

Vermont takes 44.6% of its shots from three; Yale lets opponents take 45.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 47.1% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageVermont

Where Vermont scores: ball control

Vermont turns it over on 14.3% of possessions (#35); Yale forces turnovers on 16.3% of opponent possessions (#204). Expect about 15.1%, 1.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Yale) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Vermont at about 47.1% of its shots from three, Yale about 37.9%.

GlassVermont

Vermont gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.1% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against Vermont's offense.

Vermont has the ball

OffenseYale allowsvs D1 avg

53.1% #95

51.7% #192

+1.8 pt/100

14.3% #35

16.3% #204

+2.1 pt/100

26.2% #318

29.7% #147

-2.0 pt/100

31.1% #279

26.8% #19

-0.8 pt/100

71.9% #213

—

-0.0 pt/100

Vermont net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.0 pts/100

Yale has the ball

OffenseVermont allowsvs D1 avg

55.6% #26

50.4% #121

+2.9 pt/100

14.0% #22

14.8% #305

+3.5 pt/100

34.2% #62

23.0% #2

-0.6 pt/100

35.1% #172

36.4% #226

+0.1 pt/100

74.6% #100

—

+0.2 pt/100

Yale net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Vermontoffense vsYaledefense

Share of shots by zone

Vermont shoots

36.8

5.9

12.8

44.5

Yale allows

35.7

4.5

15.7

44.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.5%#61	57.9%#147	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	48.0%#23	35.3%#65	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.3%#104	41.0%#277	38.0%
Three	33.3%#208	35.0%#250	33.7%

Yaleoffense vsVermontdefense

Share of shots by zone

Yale shoots

41.9

5.8

15.6

36.7

Vermont allows

33.7

7.7

18.0

40.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#107	57.1%#118	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.7%#28	41.9%#230	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.5%#133	35.1%#80	38.0%
Three	39.4%#3	35.3%#267	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Vermont

+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#174 of 365

Off reb %

26.2%

#318

Def reb %

77.0%

Turnover %

14.3%

#35

Forced TO %

14.8%

#305

FT rate

31.1%

#279

FT allowed

36.4%

#226

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.4

Defensive rebounding+2.5

Ball security+1.7

Forcing turnovers−1.3

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed−0.3

Yale

+5.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#17 of 365

Off reb %

34.2%

#62

Def reb %

70.3%

#147

Turnover %

14.0%

#22

Forced TO %

16.3%

#204

FT rate

35.1%

#172

FT allowed

26.8%

#19

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.2

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security+1.9

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+2.2

Yale has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.3 (#17 of 365) to Vermont’s +0.2 (#174).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Vermont2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	TJ Hurley	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	30.9	15.0	3.5	1.4	0.9	58.1%	38.5%	6.0	87.3%	25.8%
20	TJ Long	G	Sr	6'4"	29-17	29.6	12.1	4.8	1.1	1.1	48.2%	31.4%	6.5	79.7%	26.7%
19	Gus Yalden	F	So	6'9"	31-30	25.5	16.1	5.8	2.1	1.7	56.1%	34.7%	3.8	67.3%	37.9%
34	Noah Barnett	F	So	6'9"	31-25	22.3	5.8	3.6	0.5	0.4	66.8%	50.0%	0.1	64.1%	13.3%
24	Ben Johnson	G	Sr	6'3"	34-17	18.2	5.4	2.1	1.1	0.3	59.7%	42.2%	3.2	72.2%	16.2%
21	Lucas Mari	G	Fr	6'6"	30-8	20.0	4.9	4.0	1.7	1.2	46.5%	26.3%	2.5	70.0%	18.8%
2	Ben Michaels	F	So	6'8"	31-11	13.1	2.0	2.2	0.4	0.5	38.3%	9.1%	0.7	62.5%	13.2%
1	Momo Nkugwa	G	Fr	6'3"	29-0	13.1	3.0	2.3	0.7	0.4	54.9%	25.0%	1.1	47.4%	15.0%
4	Jackson Skipper	F	Sr	6'7"	29-1	8.5	1.8	1.1	0.3	0.5	43.9%	27.3%	1.1	76.9%	17.6%
0	David Simon	F	So	6'11"	18-0	10.6	3.4	2.2	0.3	0.6	70.7%	57.1%	0.4	36.4%	18.6%
32	Trey Woodyard	F	Sr	6'6"	4-0	8.0	1.5	0.3	0.3	0.0	42.9%	40.0%	1.3	—	13.6%
12	Ben Wesson	G	Fr	6'4"	7-0	2.3	1.9	0.3	0.1	0.1	85.7%	66.7%	0.4	50.0%	32.4%
25	Sincere Clemons	G	Fr	6'2"	6-0	2.2	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	26.3%
15	Drew Bessette	F	Fr	6'8"	5-0	2.4	0.4	1.4	0.2	0.0	25.0%	0.0%	0.6	—	19.0%
13	Chris Kuzemka	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Yale2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Isaac Celiscar	F	So	6'6"	31-31	31.1	13.2	6.3	3.2	1.3	62.1%	40.7%	1.9	79.8%	22.1%
11	Trevor Mullin	G	Jr	6'1"	31-30	27.1	11.5	2.4	2.7	1.1	52.3%	38.2%	5.1	89.3%	25.0%
14	Casey Simmons	G	Sr	6'7"	31-31	26.6	10.5	3.9	1.1	0.6	60.0%	38.3%	1.5	65.5%	21.2%
10	Samson Aletan	C	Jr	6'10"	29-29	25.8	7.8	5.8	1.2	0.9	57.8%	—	0.0	58.5%	17.9%
3	Jordan Brathwaite	G	So	6'4"	31-1	19.0	6.6	1.8	1.0	0.6	56.8%	44.1%	3.3	87.5%	20.0%
9	Riley Fox	F	So	6'6"	31-2	18.0	10.0	2.1	0.7	0.4	54.6%	37.2%	3.9	80.4%	30.7%
44	Devon Arlington	G	Sr	6'3"	30-1	14.1	2.8	2.0	1.5	1.1	42.2%	34.1%	1.4	59.1%	18.0%
7	Jack Sullivan	F	Fr	6'11"	20-0	6.2	1.9	1.0	0.2	0.3	46.1%	28.0%	1.3	100.0%	20.7%
0	Courtney Wallace	G	Fr	6'2"	11-0	6.5	2.5	0.9	0.9	0.5	67.5%	33.3%	0.8	100.0%	20.2%
12	Daniel Ogunyemi	F	Fr	6'7"	10-0	4.9	2.6	1.8	0.3	0.1	64.7%	—	0.0	80.0%	23.0%
22	Jeannot Basima	G	Jr	6'4"	9-0	4.1	1.2	0.6	0.4	0.3	45.0%	50.0%	0.2	100.0%	20.6%
4	Alvin Loving	G	Fr	6'4"	9-0	3.9	1.6	0.6	0.4	0.1	50.0%	40.0%	0.6	100.0%	21.5%
1	Jacob Tsai	G	Fr	5'11"	3-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	29.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Vermont2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	TJ Hurley	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	30.9	15.0	3.5	1.4	0.9	58.1%	38.5%	6.0	87.3%	25.8%
20	TJ Long	G	Sr	6'4"	29-17	29.6	12.1	4.8	1.1	1.1	48.2%	31.4%	6.5	79.7%	26.7%
19	Gus Yalden	F	So	6'9"	31-30	25.5	16.1	5.8	2.1	1.7	56.1%	34.7%	3.8	67.3%	37.9%
34	Noah Barnett	F	So	6'9"	31-25	22.3	5.8	3.6	0.5	0.4	66.8%	50.0%	0.1	64.1%	13.3%
24	Ben Johnson	G	Sr	6'3"	34-17	18.2	5.4	2.1	1.1	0.3	59.7%	42.2%	3.2	72.2%	16.2%
21	Lucas Mari	G	Fr	6'6"	30-8	20.0	4.9	4.0	1.7	1.2	46.5%	26.3%	2.5	70.0%	18.8%
2	Ben Michaels	F	So	6'8"	31-11	13.1	2.0	2.2	0.4	0.5	38.3%	9.1%	0.7	62.5%	13.2%
1	Momo Nkugwa	G	Fr	6'3"	29-0	13.1	3.0	2.3	0.7	0.4	54.9%	25.0%	1.1	47.4%	15.0%
4	Jackson Skipper	F	Sr	6'7"	29-1	8.5	1.8	1.1	0.3	0.5	43.9%	27.3%	1.1	76.9%	17.6%
0	David Simon	F	So	6'11"	18-0	10.6	3.4	2.2	0.3	0.6	70.7%	57.1%	0.4	36.4%	18.6%
32	Trey Woodyard	F	Sr	6'6"	4-0	8.0	1.5	0.3	0.3	0.0	42.9%	40.0%	1.3	—	13.6%
12	Ben Wesson	G	Fr	6'4"	7-0	2.3	1.9	0.3	0.1	0.1	85.7%	66.7%	0.4	50.0%	32.4%
25	Sincere Clemons	G	Fr	6'2"	6-0	2.2	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	26.3%
15	Drew Bessette	F	Fr	6'8"	5-0	2.4	0.4	1.4	0.2	0.0	25.0%	0.0%	0.6	—	19.0%
13	Chris Kuzemka	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Vermont

Against the spread

Season

14-18

Home

8-6

Road

5-10

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.2

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 9 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

17-15

Home

6-8

Road

8-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −3.8

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 9 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 14	UMBCAdjEM #147	A	L 59–74	+1.5	L−13.5	134.5	U133	92.1	115.5	64.0
Mar 10	NJITAdjEM #331	H	W 63–54	−11.5	L−2.5	135.0	U117	99.6	85.4	63.2
Mar 7	BryantAdjEM #347	H	W 77–57	−12.0	W+8.0	131.5	O134	129.5	95.9	59.5
Mar 3	UAlbanyAdjEM #306	H	W 69–56	−9.0	W+4.0	137.0	U125	112.9	91.7	61.1
Feb 26	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	H	W 66–64	−9.0	L−7.0	146.5	U130	101.5	98.4	65.0
Feb 21	NJITAdjEM #331	A	W 70–64	−6.5	L−0.5	142.0	U134	110.2	100.8	63.5
Feb 19	UMBCAdjEM #147	A	L 62–75	−2.0	L−15.0	142.0	U137	92.1	111.4	67.3
Feb 14	BryantAdjEM #347	H	W 90–63	−12.5	W+14.5	133.0	O153	134.8	94.4	66.8
Feb 12	BinghamtonAdjEM #354	A	W 73–65	−11.0	L−3.0	136.0	O138	111.3	99.1	65.6
Feb 7	New HampshireAdjEM #340	H	W 80–57	−10.0	W+13.0	138.0	U137	117.9	84.0	67.8

Yale

Against the spread

Season

12-17

Home

4-7

Road

5-7

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −1.4

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 10 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-14

Home

4-7

Road

7-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −1.8

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 10 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	H	L 67–68	−4.5	L−5.5	148.5	U135	103.0	104.5	65.1
Mar 15	PennAdjEM #162	N	L 84–88 OT	−9.5	L−13.5	144.0	O172	116.1	121.7	72.3
Mar 14	CornellAdjEM #135	N	W 88–76	−3.5	W+8.5	163.5	O164	144.9	125.2	60.7
Mar 7	PrincetonAdjEM #251	H	W 78–53	−14.0	W+11.0	137.0	U131	117.2	79.6	66.6
Feb 28	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	A	W 60–54	−6.5	L−0.5	146.0	U114	98.9	89.0	60.7
Feb 27	CornellAdjEM #135	A	L 69–72	−4.0	L−7.0	164.0	U141	107.4	112.1	64.3
Feb 21	PennAdjEM #162	H	W 74–70	−8.5	L−4.5	149.5	U144	111.1	105.1	66.6
Feb 14	HarvardAdjEM #133	A	W 76–75 OT	−5.5	L−4.5	139.5	O151	115.8	114.2	65.7
Feb 13	DartmouthAdjEM #254	A	W 83–70	−10.0	W+3.0	151.5	O153	121.5	102.5	68.3
Feb 9	HowardAdjEM #160	A	W 87–81 OT	−7.0	L−1.0	147.5	O168	120.7	112.4	72.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

VermontYale

Efficiency

108.2

116.5

109.4

108.1

66.5

66.6

—

Shooting

53.1%

55.6%

55.7%

53.6%

33.3%

39.4%

71.9%

74.6%

31.1%

35.1%

Ball control & glass

14.3%

14.0%

14.8%

16.3%

26.2%

34.2%

23.0%

29.7%

8.3%

7.7%

8.3%

9.1%

Style

44.6%

36.1%

41.8%

44.4%

5.5%

9.8%

47.9%

56.0%

34.4%

29.0%

Roster

2.78

2.73

6'6.1"

6'5.5"

85.8%

84.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Vermont

Returning minutes: 85.8%Returning production: 85.6%

Lost

Sean Blake 28.6 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Ball State

Added

Chris Kuzemka no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Yale

Returning minutes: 84.0%Returning production: 79.7%

Lost

Nick Townsend 32.4 mpg, 15.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sun, Nov 30	2025-26	Yale 77 – 74 Vermont

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.