Washington State Cougars vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors basketball preview & prediction
Wed, Nov 18 · 10:00 PM ET · Angel of the Winds Arena, Everett, WA (neutral site)
Neutral siteNon-conferenceAngel of the Winds Arena, Everett, WA
Washington St
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #204
vs
Hawai'i
3-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #142
Wed, Nov 18 · 10:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Hawai'i is the faster team (70.8, #181 of 365) and Washington St the slower (64.8, #330). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.9
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.9#291
Washington St
70.6#183
Hawai'i
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Hawai'i has the ball+5.4
Washington St has the ball−5.0
Hawai'i has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 45.7% #260 · WSU allows 66.7% #350+5.6
✗Few second chancesOR% 29.7% #219 · WSU allows 28.8% #138−1.1
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 14.1% #65 · WSU forces 20.1% #106 · ~12 turnovers+1.0
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 31.0% #240 · WSU allows 41.4% #224 · FT 69.0% #198−0.1
Washington St has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 19.3% #225 · HAW forces 24.0% #37 · ~16 turnovers−3.6
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 46.7% #247 · HAW allows 52.8% #219−0.8
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 20.7% #339 · HAW allows 36.1% #175 · FT 76.0% #85−0.4
✗Few second chancesOR% 35.9% #98 · HAW allows 24.1% #51−0.2
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootWashington Stoffense vsHawai'idefense
Share of shots by zone
Washington St shoots
36.8
5.3
14.9
43.0
Hawai'i allows
39.2
11.1
10.5
39.2
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 47.6%#294 | 58.3%#180 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 16.7%#299 | 29.4%#110 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 29.4%#221 | 43.8%#252 | 34.7% |
| Three | 34.0%#153 | 36.5%#272 | 32.5% |
Hawai'ioffense vsWashington Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Hawai'i shoots
35.2
17.6
7.7
39.6
Washington St allows
32.6
15.2
7.6
44.6
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 46.9%#304 | 76.7%#348 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 56.3%#62 | 50.0%#243 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.7%#161 | 71.4%#346 | 34.7% |
| Three | 28.0%#246 | 44.4%#338 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineWashington St
−2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#211 of 365
Off reb %
35.9%
#98
Def reb %
71.2%
#138
Turnover %
19.3%
#225
Forced TO %
20.1%
#106
FT rate
20.7%
#339
FT allowed
41.4%
#224
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.5
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn−4.4
Foul shots allowed−0.9
Hawai'i
+7.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#74 of 365
Off reb %
29.7%
#219
Def reb %
75.9%
#51
Turnover %
14.1%
#65
Forced TO %
24.0%
#37
FT rate
31.0%
#240
FT allowed
36.1%
#175
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding+2.5
Ball security+2.9
Forcing turnovers+4.2
Foul shots drawn−1.7
Foul shots allowed+0.5
Hawai'i has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.8 (#74 of 365) to Washington St’s −2.2 (#211).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notWashington St2026-27 numbers · last game: High Point, Nov 7
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 2-1 | 28.0 | 30 | — | Started last | 15.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 72.5% | 33.3% | 4.5 | 100.0% | 27.5% | |
| 7 | G | So | 6'0" | 2-2 | 25.5 | 33 | — | Started last | 17.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 65.8% | 55.6% | 4.5 | 81.8% | 30.8% | |
| 31 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 2-1 | 22.0 | 21 | — | Bench | 5.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 16.6% | |
| 21 | F | Jr | 6'0" | 2-2 | 21.5 | 23 | — | Started last | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 35.0% | 25.0% | 2.0 | — | 18.6% | |
| 10 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-1 | 21.0 | 20 | — | Started last | 6.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 26.2% | 16.7% | 3.0 | 50.0% | 32.1% | |
| 2 | F | So | 6'10" | 2-2 | 17.5 | 20 | — | Started last | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 21.1% | |
| 24 | F | Fr | 6'10" | 2-0 | 17.0 | 8 | — | Bench | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 20.5% | |
| 33 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 2-1 | 16.0 | 7 | — | Bench | 5.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 30.8% | 20.0% | 5.0 | 75.0% | 31.8% | |
| 8 | G | Jr | 6'2" | 2-0 | 15.0 | 16 | — | Bench | 6.0 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 66.7% | 50.0% | 4.0 | 0.0% | 27.7% | |
| 13 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 2-0 | 9.0 | 9 | — | Bench | 2.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 62.5% | 100.0% | 0.5 | — | 13.8% | |
| 93 | F | — | 6'10" | 2-0 | 7.5 | 15 | — | Bench | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 4.2% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesWashington St
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
0-1
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-1
avg cover −8.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-2
Home
0-1
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-2
avg vs total −7.2
Under 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | Duquesne | A | L 71–72 | +3.5 | W+2.5 | 145.5 | U143 | 113.6 | 115.2 | 62.5 |
| Nov 7 | High Point | A | L 71–83 | +13.0 | W+1.0 | 156.5 | U154 | 112.3 | 131.3 | 63.2 |
| Nov 2 | Davidson | H | L 61–76 | −3.0 | L−18.0 | 149.0 | U137 | 91.8 | 114.4 | 66.5 |
| Mar 6 | Portland | N | L 68–74 | −5.5 | L−11.5 | 150.0 | U142 | 97.7 | 106.3 | 69.6 |
| Feb 28 | Pepperdine | A | L 79–88 | −8.0 | L−17.0 | 158.0 | O167 | 104.6 | 116.6 | 75.5 |
| Feb 25 | LMU | A | L 66–67 | +2.0 | W+1.0 | 148.0 | U133 | 97.1 | 98.6 | 68.0 |
| Feb 21 | Saint Mary's | H | L 67–83 | +8.5 | L−7.5 | 148.5 | O150 | 106.5 | 131.9 | 62.9 |
| Feb 18 | Pacific | H | W 87–70 | −2.5 | W+14.5 | 143.5 | O157 | 132.8 | 106.8 | 65.5 |
| Feb 10 | #12Gonzaga | A | L 53–83 | +21.5 | L−8.5 | 156.0 | U136 | 74.8 | 117.1 | 70.9 |
| Feb 7 | Santa Clara | H | L 92–96 | +8.5 | W+4.5 | 160.5 | O188 | 129.8 | 135.5 | 70.9 |
Hawai'i
Against the spread
Season
1-2
Home
1-2
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-2
avg cover −4.8
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-2
Home
1-2
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-2
avg vs total −9.2
Under 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Portland | H | L 66–73 | −8.0 | L−15.0 | 158.0 | U139 | 100.7 | 111.4 | 65.5 |
| Nov 8 | UT Arlington | H | W 71–62 | −8.0 | W+1.0 | 146.0 | U133 | 97.2 | 84.9 | 73.0 |
| Nov 6 | Bethesda Flames | H | W 116–44 | — | — | — | — | 150.0 | 56.9 | 77.3 |
| Nov 2 | Seattle U | H | W 74–73 | −1.5 | L−0.5 | 142.5 | O147 | 100.3 | 99.0 | 73.8 |
| Mar 19 | #4Arkansas | N | L 78–97 | +15.0 | L−4.0 | 158.0 | O175 | 101.8 | 126.5 | 76.7 |
| Mar 14 | UC Irvine | N | W 71–64 | +1.5 | W+8.5 | 142.0 | U135 | 100.6 | 90.7 | 70.6 |
| Mar 13 | Fullerton | N | W 78–63 | −5.0 | W+10.0 | 157.5 | U141 | 106.1 | 85.7 | 73.5 |
| Mar 7 | Long Beach St | H | L 75–84 | −14.0 | L−23.0 | 150.0 | O159 | 97.9 | 109.6 | 76.6 |
| Mar 5 | UC Riverside | H | W 93–74 | −12.5 | W+6.5 | 149.0 | O167 | 129.5 | 103.1 | 71.8 |
| Feb 28 | Fullerton | A | W 87–85 | −3.5 | L−1.5 | 157.0 | O172 | 121.0 | 118.2 | 71.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeWashington StHawai'i
Efficiency
107.8
103.3
110.7
101.7
68.9
70.6
8.5
1.0
Shooting
46.7%
45.7%
43.7%
48.2%
34.0%
28.0%
76.0%
69.0%
20.7%
31.0%
Ball control & glass
19.3%
14.1%
20.1%
24.0%
35.9%
29.7%
28.8%
24.1%
13.1%
8.5%
7.0%
8.0%
Style
41.3%
40.1%
39.4%
45.5%
15.9%
11.8%
56.3%
48.0%
43.0%
30.8%
Roster
2.42
2.90
6'4.6"
6'6.9"
0.0%
0.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputWashington St
Returning minutes: 0.1%Returning production: 0.2%
Lost
- Ace Glass 28.9 mpg, 16.4 ppg · transferred to Vanderbilt
- Eemeli Yalaho 28.3 mpg, 10.1 ppg · transferred to NC State
- Jerone Morton 24.9 mpg, 7.8 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
- ND Okafor 23.2 mpg, 11.0 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St
- Rihards Vavers 22.9 mpg, 10.4 ppg · transferred to Memphis
- Adria Rodriguez 20.3 mpg, 3.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Fraser Roxburgh from Manhattan · 30.6 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
- Ronnie Harrison from East Texas A&M · 27.7 mpg, 13.8 ppg last season
- Sebastian Akins from Wake Forest · 15.1 mpg, 5.3 ppg last season
- Tyler Kropp from Northwestern · 10.9 mpg, 2.8 ppg last season
- Jamari Phillips from Oregon · 9.2 mpg, 2.2 ppg last season
- Ladji Dembele from UNLV · 2.9 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (5 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Hawai'i
Returning minutes: 9.7%Returning production: 7.1%
Lost
- Hunter Erickson 31.4 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Dre Bullock 28.4 mpg, 13.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Harry Rouhliadeff 24.0 mpg, 10.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Gytis Nemeiksa 23.8 mpg, 9.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Isaac Finlinson 22.7 mpg, 9.2 ppg · transferred to W Michigan
- Isaac Johnson 21.2 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Chance Trujillo from Utah Tech · 31.9 mpg, 11.9 ppg last season
- Bol Dengdit from UC San Diego · 23.4 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
- Houran Dan from Seattle U · 15.0 mpg, 5.7 ppg last season
- Zack Davidson from N Arizona · 10.3 mpg, 6.1 ppg last season
- Manie Joses from Davidson · 8.6 mpg, 1.7 ppg last season
- Marcus Adams Jr. from Arizona St · 5.0 mpg, 1.5 ppg last season
Returns 10% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Wed, Nov 18
- Jackson St at Baylor · 12:00 PM ET
- Navy at Georgetown · 6:30 PM ET
- IU Indy at Penn State · 6:30 PM ET
- Detroit Mercy at E Michigan · 6:30 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Winthrop · 6:30 PM ET
- Samford at SC Upstate · 6:30 PM ET
- Tennessee Tech at UNC Asheville · 6:30 PM ET
- Binghamton at Lafayette · 7:00 PM ET
- Brown at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
- Wofford at Charleston So · 7:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at UIC · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at FDU · 7:00 PM ET
- UNC Wilmington at Long Island · 7:00 PM ET
- NC Central at George Mason · 7:00 PM ET
- Siena at St John's · 7:00 PM ET
- Vermont at Yale · 7:00 PM ET
- Morehead St at Ohio · 7:00 PM ET
- Elon at South Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Morgan St at NC A&T · 7:00 PM ET
- VMI at Longwood · 7:00 PM ET
- Furman at Radford · 7:00 PM ET
- FGCU at FAU · 7:00 PM ET
- Boston U at Merrimack · 7:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at La Salle · 7:00 PM ET
- Howard vs Duquesne · 7:00 PM ET
- James Madison at Towson · 7:00 PM ET
- Mercer at Presbyterian · 7:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Marquette · 7:30 PM ET
- Youngstown St at Cincinnati · 7:30 PM ET
- LSU N Orleans at Texas Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- Campbell at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
- Boston College at Harvard · 8:00 PM ET
- Wichita St at Loyola Chicago · 8:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at LSU · 8:00 PM ET
- New Hampshire at Stonehill · 8:00 PM ET
- Cornell at Syracuse · 8:00 PM ET
- Purdue FW at Bradley · 8:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at Arkansas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Incarnate Word at Texas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Florida A&M at UTSA · 8:00 PM ET
- UNC Greensboro at Gardner-Webb · 8:30 PM ET
- South Dakota at Nebraska · 8:30 PM ET
- Bethune at Creighton · 9:00 PM ET
- UConn at Arizona · 9:00 PM ET
- Portland at Colorado · 9:00 PM ET
- Fresno St at San José St · 9:00 PM ET
- Oakland at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
- N Colorado at BYU · 9:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Missouri · 9:00 PM ET
- Weber St at Utah State · 9:00 PM ET
- N Dakota St at Colorado St · 9:00 PM ET
- UC Riverside at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
- Idaho at Nevada · 10:00 PM ET
- Texas Southern at San Diego St · 10:00 PM ET
- Fullerton at UCLA · 10:30 PM ET
- Louisiana at San Francisco · TBD
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.