CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceDesert Financial Arena, Tempe, AZ
Oakland
Efficiency #172
2025-26: 16-16 · 12-9 conf
@
Arizona St
Efficiency #93
2025-26: 17-16 · 8-12 conf
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
76.7
win 27%
Projected
83.8
win 73%
No line posted yet.
Model: ASU −7.1 · total 160.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Arizona St 69.5, Oakland 70.0 → 71.3 possessions
+6.4
Arizona St offense vs Oakland defense
+4.5
Oakland offense vs Arizona St defense
+1.5
Projected total
160.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Arizona St offense vs Oakland defense
+4.5
Oakland offense vs Arizona St defense
−1.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Arizona St by 7.1
7.1
Oakland side ◂▸ Arizona St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Arizona St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 71.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Oakland is the faster team (71.1, #46 of 365) and Arizona St the slower (70.6, #71). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
71.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
160.6
model
Projected team totals
76.7 / 83.8
Oakland / Arizona St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.0#46
Oakland
69.5#79
Arizona St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Track meet
Arizona St averages 70.6 possessions per 40, Oakland 71.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
DefenseArizona St
Arizona St's shot-blocking
Arizona St ranks #30 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.6% of Oakland's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageArizona St
Where Arizona St scores: shooting
Arizona St shoots an effective 51.1% (#190); Oakland allows 54.7% (#322). Expect about 52.9%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageOakland
Where Oakland scores: shooting
Oakland shoots an effective 52.7% (#114); Arizona St allows 52.4% (#235). Expect about 52.7%, 1.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.
GlassOakland
Oakland owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.2% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for Oakland's offense.
Oakland has the ball
OffenseArizona St allowsvs D1 avg
52.7% #114
52.4% #235
+2.0 pt/100
14.7% #49
18.5% #77
+0.1 pt/100
31.3% #152
34.9% #337
+1.7 pt/100
38.1% #100
34.3% #160
+0.1 pt/100
75.1% #79
—
+0.2 pt/100
Oakland net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.2 pts/100
Arizona St has the ball
OffenseOakland allowsvs D1 avg
51.1% #190
54.7% #322
+2.4 pt/100
17.1% #213
15.1% #284
+1.1 pt/100
29.8% #206
34.4% #324
+0.9 pt/100
39.5% #66
24.6% #4
-0.5 pt/100
75.3% #73
—
+0.3 pt/100
Arizona St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersOaklandoffense vsArizona Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Oakland shoots
45.2
8.6
12.5
33.7
Arizona St allows
37.3
7.7
15.6
39.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.1%#192 | 59.3%#204 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.6%#56 | 43.1%#253 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.4%#135 | 39.2%#209 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.7%#131 | 35.0%#249 | 33.7% |
Arizona Stoffense vsOaklanddefense
Share of shots by zone
Arizona St shoots
35.6
7.8
18.0
38.6
Oakland allows
36.5
6.6
14.8
42.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.9%#119 | 61.3%#277 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.0%#122 | 45.0%#299 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.4%#177 | 48.9%#365 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.4%#202 | 34.3%#206 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersOakland
+2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#57 of 365
Off reb %
31.3%
#152
Def reb %
65.6%
#324
Turnover %
14.7%
#49
Forced TO %
15.1%
#284
FT rate
38.1%
#100
FT allowed
24.6%
#4
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−1.2
Ball security+1.4
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.8
Foul shots allowed+2.7
Arizona St
+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#149 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#206
Def reb %
65.1%
#337
Turnover %
17.1%
#213
Forced TO %
18.5%
#77
FT rate
39.5%
#66
FT allowed
34.3%
#160
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.2
Oakland has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.9 (#57 of 365) to Arizona St’s +0.8 (#149).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Oakland2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Oakland's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | Brody Robinson | G | Sr | 5'11" | 32-32 | 35.8 | 17.6 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 52.2% | 36.8% | 6.4 | 79.8% | 26.6% | |
| 12 | Tuburu Naivalurua | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 31.9 | 14.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 54.4% | 34.0% | 1.7 | 71.5% | 23.7% | |
| 2 | Ziare Wells | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-26 | 26.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 53.5% | 37.7% | 1.9 | 70.9% | 21.2% | |
| 32 | Isaac Garrett | F | Jr | 6'8" | 28-28 | 28.9 | 13.7 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 54.8% | 25.0% | 0.9 | 80.4% | 25.9% | |
| 10 | Brett White II | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-6 | 24.0 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 55.5% | 36.5% | 6.3 | 71.4% | 19.5% | |
| 6 | Michael Houge | F | Sr | 6'7" | 27-26 | 26.6 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 53.9% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 72.2% | 26.7% | |
| 21 | Khoi Thurmon | G | Jr | 6'1" | 32-0 | 11.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 35.8% | 20.0% | 0.5 | 64.3% | 19.0% | |
| 13 | Warren Marshall IV | G | Fr | 6'6" | 29-0 | 12.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 57.2% | 23.3% | 1.0 | 58.3% | 15.4% | |
| 0 | Nassim Mashhour | G | So | 6'6" | 10-10 | 27.2 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 53.9% | 37.7% | 5.3 | 84.6% | 18.0% | |
| 5 | MJ Yeager | G | Fr | 5'10" | 7-0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.9 | — | 23.5% | |
| 3 | Donny Yeager | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Hamoudy Mashhour | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | William Kassi | G | Jr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Arizona St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Arizona St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Maurice Odum | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-33 | 33.8 | 16.4 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 51.3% | 37.7% | 7.2 | 82.9% | 29.7% | |
| 35 | Massamba Diop | C | Fr | 7'1" | 33-33 | 29.7 | 13.6 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 58.2% | 30.8% | 0.8 | 71.5% | 24.8% | |
| 2 | Anthony Johnson | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-5 | 24.8 | 13.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 49.7% | 32.9% | 2.4 | 76.1% | 31.7% | |
| 15 | Noah Meeusen | G | So | 6'5" | 30-11 | 27.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 49.0% | 31.0% | 3.3 | 82.9% | 14.2% | |
| 1 | Santiago Trouet | F | So | 6'11" | 31-30 | 25.7 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 46.1% | 20.8% | 0.8 | 78.3% | 19.5% | |
| 14 | Andrija Grbovic | F | Jr | 6'11" | 33-27 | 19.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 51.9% | 35.0% | 3.7 | 78.9% | 19.4% | |
| 4 | Bryce Ford | G | Jr | 6'4" | 27-20 | 22.4 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 47.3% | 31.4% | 3.8 | 82.9% | 18.6% | |
| 23 | Allen Mukeba | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-6 | 16.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 56.1% | 25.0% | 0.1 | 53.2% | 19.9% | |
| 8 | Marcus Adams Jr. | F | Jr | 6'8" | 14-0 | 11.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 43.9% | 29.6% | 1.9 | 70.0% | 19.7% | |
| 12 | Trevor Best | G | So | 6'3" | 17-0 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 36.4% | 16.7% | 0.7 | 63.6% | 18.1% | |
| 11 | Kash Polk | F | Fr | 6'10" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 3 | Adante' Holiman | G | Sr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Dame Salane | C | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 70 | Jovan Icitovic | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Quentin McCoy | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Vijay Wallace | G | Jr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Oakland2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Oakland's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | Brody Robinson | G | Sr | 5'11" | 32-32 | 35.8 | 17.6 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 52.2% | 36.8% | 6.4 | 79.8% | 26.6% | |
| 12 | Tuburu Naivalurua | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 31.9 | 14.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 54.4% | 34.0% | 1.7 | 71.5% | 23.7% | |
| 2 | Ziare Wells | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-26 | 26.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 53.5% | 37.7% | 1.9 | 70.9% | 21.2% | |
| 32 | Isaac Garrett | F | Jr | 6'8" | 28-28 | 28.9 | 13.7 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 54.8% | 25.0% | 0.9 | 80.4% | 25.9% | |
| 10 | Brett White II | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-6 | 24.0 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 55.5% | 36.5% | 6.3 | 71.4% | 19.5% | |
| 6 | Michael Houge | F | Sr | 6'7" | 27-26 | 26.6 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 53.9% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 72.2% | 26.7% | |
| 21 | Khoi Thurmon | G | Jr | 6'1" | 32-0 | 11.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 35.8% | 20.0% | 0.5 | 64.3% | 19.0% | |
| 13 | Warren Marshall IV | G | Fr | 6'6" | 29-0 | 12.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 57.2% | 23.3% | 1.0 | 58.3% | 15.4% | |
| 0 | Nassim Mashhour | G | So | 6'6" | 10-10 | 27.2 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 53.9% | 37.7% | 5.3 | 84.6% | 18.0% | |
| 5 | MJ Yeager | G | Fr | 5'10" | 7-0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.9 | — | 23.5% | |
| 3 | Donny Yeager | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Hamoudy Mashhour | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | William Kassi | G | Jr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Oakland
Against the spread
Season
17-14
Home
5-7
Road
10-7
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −5.3
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 9 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
19-12
Home
9-3
Road
9-8
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −3.2
Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 9 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | N Kentucky | H | L 84–85 | −2.0 | L−3.0 | 162.5 | O169 | 115.1 | 116.5 | 73.0 |
| Feb 28 | Detroit Mercy | H | L 89–95 | −8.0 | L−14.0 | 161.5 | O184 | 123.4 | 131.7 | 72.1 |
| Feb 25 | IU Indy | A | W 86–74 | −5.5 | W+6.5 | 167.5 | U160 | 118.5 | 101.9 | 72.6 |
| Feb 22 | Milwaukee | H | W 81–70 | −6.5 | W+4.5 | 160.0 | U151 | 123.9 | 107.1 | 65.4 |
| Feb 20 | Green Bay | H | L 68–73 | −6.5 | L−11.5 | 153.5 | U141 | 107.8 | 115.7 | 63.1 |
| Feb 15 | Robert Morris | A | L 69–93 | +1.5 | L−22.5 | 156.0 | O162 | 104.4 | 140.7 | 66.1 |
| Feb 12 | Youngstown St | H | L 82–86 | −4.0 | L−8.0 | 156.0 | O168 | 117.4 | 123.1 | 69.8 |
| Feb 4 | Cleveland St | A | L 78–91 | −8.0 | L−21.0 | 169.5 | U169 | 109.5 | 127.7 | 71.3 |
| Feb 1 | N Kentucky | H | W 76–65 | −3.0 | W+8.0 | 167.5 | U141 | 99.6 | 85.2 | 76.3 |
| Jan 28 | Purdue FW | A | W 74–65 | −1.0 | W+8.0 | 162.5 | U139 | 106.6 | 93.6 | 69.4 |
Arizona St
Against the spread
Season
20-12-1
Home
10-4-1
Road
5-6
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +0.2
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
15-17-1
Home
4-11
Road
7-4
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −6.8
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | #7Iowa State | N | L 42–91 | +12.5 | L−36.5 | 149.5 | U133 | 61.1 | 132.3 | 68.8 |
| Mar 10 | Baylor | N | W 83–79 | +5.0 | W+9.0 | 152.5 | O162 | 117.3 | 111.6 | 70.8 |
| Mar 7 | #6Iowa State | A | L 65–86 | +16.5 | L−4.5 | 148.0 | O151 | 89.1 | 117.9 | 73.0 |
| Mar 3 | #14Kansas | H | W 70–60 | +6.0 | W+16.0 | 150.0 | U130 | 96.7 | 82.8 | 72.4 |
| Feb 28 | Utah | H | W 73–60 | −7.0 | W+6.0 | 150.5 | U133 | 124.8 | 102.6 | 58.5 |
| Feb 24 | TCU | A | L 78–90 | +6.5 | L−5.5 | 149.0 | O168 | 104.1 | 120.1 | 75.0 |
| Feb 21 | Baylor | A | L 68–73 | +8.5 | W+3.5 | 158.0 | U141 | 104.0 | 111.6 | 65.4 |
| Feb 17 | #13Texas Tech | H | W 72–67 | +7.5 | W+12.5 | 155.5 | U139 | 108.9 | 101.3 | 66.1 |
| Feb 10 | Oklahoma St | H | W 85–76 | −2.5 | W+6.5 | 163.0 | U161 | 113.8 | 101.7 | 74.7 |
| Feb 7 | Colorado | A | L 70–78 | +3.5 | L−4.5 | 158.0 | U148 | 106.7 | 118.9 | 65.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOaklandArizona St
Efficiency
112.6
110.9
112.3
106.4
70.0
69.5
—
—
Shooting
52.7%
51.1%
53.0%
51.7%
34.7%
33.4%
75.1%
75.3%
38.1%
39.5%
Ball control & glass
14.7%
17.1%
15.1%
18.5%
31.3%
29.8%
34.4%
34.9%
7.6%
10.5%
11.7%
9.6%
Style
34.0%
38.4%
49.0%
41.8%
18.8%
16.3%
54.9%
53.0%
23.7%
32.3%
Roster
3.55
2.82
6'5.1"
6'7"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputOakland
Returning minutes: 99.3%Returning production: 99.6%
ESPN hasn't posted Oakland's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 99% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Arizona St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Arizona St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.