CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

N Illinois

Efficiency #341

2025-26: 9-21 · 4-14 conf

Marquette

Efficiency #100

2025-26: 12-20 · 7-14 conf

Wed, Nov 18 · TBD

65.4

win 10%

Projected

80.1

win 90%

No line posted yet.

Model: MARQ −14.7 · total 145.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Marquette 69.5, N Illinois 68.5 → 69.7 possessions

+2.9

Marquette offense vs N Illinois defense

+2.5

N Illinois offense vs Marquette defense

−8.2

Projected total

145.4

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Marquette offense vs N Illinois defense

+2.5

N Illinois offense vs Marquette defense

+8.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Marquette by 14.7

14.7

N Illinois side ◂▸ Marquette side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Marquette.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Marquette is the faster team (70.1, #91 of 365) and N Illinois the slower (69.0, #149). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.4

model

Projected team totals

65.4 / 80.1

N Illinois / Marquette

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.5#172

N Illinois

69.5#81

Marquette

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageN Illinois

Where N Illinois struggles: ball control

N Illinois turns it over on 21.8% of possessions (#360); Marquette forces turnovers on 19.3% of opponent possessions (#38). Expect about 21.2%, 4.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.5 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseMarquette

Marquette's ball-hawking

Marquette ranks #8 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.8% of N Illinois's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

AdvantageMarquette

Where Marquette scores: shooting

Marquette shoots an effective 50.5% (#215); N Illinois allows 55.6% (#342). Expect about 53.0%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (N Illinois) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect N Illinois at about 44.0% of its shots from three, Marquette about 40.5%.

N Illinois has the ball

OffenseMarquette allowsvs D1 avg

47.6% #324

50.6% #131

-3.6 pt/100

21.8% #360

19.3% #38

-5.5 pt/100

30.3% #187

34.7% #331

+1.2 pt/100

38.3% #95

32.0% #104

-0.0 pt/100

65.7% #356

—

-0.6 pt/100

N Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.4 pts/100

Marquette has the ball

OffenseN Illinois allowsvs D1 avg

50.5% #215

55.6% #342

+2.5 pt/100

16.0% #144

16.3% #205

+0.9 pt/100

29.7% #216

30.0% #161

-0.4 pt/100

32.8% #243

38.3% #267

+0.1 pt/100

67.5% #332

—

-0.4 pt/100

Marquette net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

N Illinoisoffense vsMarquettedefense

Share of shots by zone

N Illinois shoots

41.7

3.7

8.9

45.7

Marquette allows

39.3

4.7

16.5

39.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	51.9%#350	60.9%#264	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.3%#339	36.3%#95	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	32.8%#333	35.5%#88	38.0%
Three	30.9%#323	32.7%#104	33.7%

Marquetteoffense vsN Illinoisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Marquette shoots

46.1

4.0

7.9

42.0

N Illinois allows

44.0

4.6

13.3

38.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.0%#238	62.9%#323	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.6%#161	33.9%#42	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.3%#306	40.6%#259	38.0%
Three	31.7%#297	36.3%#315	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

N Illinois

−3.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#315 of 365

Off reb %

30.3%

#187

Def reb %

70.0%

#161

Turnover %

21.8%

#360

Forced TO %

16.3%

#205

FT rate

38.3%

#95

FT allowed

38.3%

#267

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security−3.4

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn+0.8

Foul shots allowed−0.8

Marquette

+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#137 of 365

Off reb %

29.7%

#216

Def reb %

65.3%

#331

Turnover %

16.0%

#144

Forced TO %

19.3%

#38

FT rate

32.8%

#243

FT allowed

32.0%

#104

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.2

Defensive rebounding−1.3

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers+1.8

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed+0.8

Marquette has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.0 (#137 of 365) to N Illinois’s −3.5 (#315).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

N Illinois2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Makhai Valentine	G	So	6'3"	29-29	30.7	13.3	5.3	1.0	1.2	53.1%	35.8%	6.7	81.3%	24.0%
0	Gianni Cobb	G	So	6'0"	30-19	29.0	9.8	2.7	3.9	2.4	46.2%	26.8%	2.4	59.8%	24.3%
6	Taj Walters	G	Fr	6'5"	29-23	27.1	8.5	5.4	0.6	1.3	52.4%	38.3%	2.8	78.3%	18.8%
96	Gustav Winther	F	Fr	6'10"	30-21	21.2	8.1	4.2	0.9	1.4	64.5%	42.9%	0.2	54.7%	21.2%
3	Daemar Kelly	G	Jr	6'5"	29-15	20.6	5.6	3.1	1.2	1.2	35.2%	25.6%	2.8	76.7%	21.9%
7	Hassan Washington	F	Jr	6'8"	29-14	16.6	4.7	3.2	0.6	1.9	59.9%	43.8%	0.6	44.4%	20.6%
10	Jao Ituka	G	Jr	6'1"	15-0	14.1	6.9	2.5	0.9	0.3	48.9%	34.4%	4.1	81.0%	27.4%
2	Carlos Coronado	G	Fr	6'3"	20-1	10.3	3.9	0.8	0.6	1.0	41.2%	20.8%	1.2	68.9%	26.2%
8	Ladji Kante	F	Fr	6'7"	17-0	9.2	2.8	1.2	0.4	0.6	43.8%	20.0%	0.9	65.0%	21.2%
23	Jaylen Wharton	F	Jr	6'9"	18-0	7.0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.3	45.2%	—	0.0	42.1%	20.2%
11	Isaiah Washington	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	8.9	2.7	1.3	0.5	0.5	38.9%	11.1%	0.8	64.3%	22.3%
16	Isaiah Stewart	G	Fr	6'6"	13-0	5.5	1.2	0.9	0.3	0.2	60.0%	40.0%	0.4	66.7%	11.0%
4	JJ Taylor	F	Jr	6'8"	3-2	21.0	8.7	2.7	0.3	3.0	41.7%	11.1%	3.0	68.8%	29.3%
21	Max Laskey	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	2.5	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	13.9%
15	Lataevyon Taylor	G	So	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Marquette2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Nigel James Jr.	G	Fr	6'0"	32-29	29.3	16.4	3.4	4.9	2.8	52.0%	34.7%	3.8	69.2%	35.0%
13	Royce Parham	F	So	6'8"	31-20	28.8	12.5	4.9	0.9	1.4	58.4%	33.3%	3.3	65.0%	23.4%
12	Ben Gold	F	Sr	6'11"	31-26	27.3	8.0	5.8	0.9	0.6	49.3%	26.4%	4.5	65.3%	17.8%
10	Adrien Stevens	G	Fr	6'4"	32-23	26.1	7.9	2.6	1.6	1.0	56.6%	37.5%	4.5	71.0%	17.4%
9	Damarius Owens	F	So	6'7"	30-1	15.7	4.8	2.6	0.7	0.7	47.4%	27.1%	2.0	71.7%	19.5%
18	Caedin Hamilton	F	So	6'9"	32-17	13.0	2.9	2.9	0.6	0.8	42.3%	0.0%	0.1	67.5%	16.9%
5	Tre Norman	G	Jr	6'4"	30-0	8.1	2.2	1.4	0.7	0.7	44.1%	11.1%	0.3	64.5%	20.5%
35	Michael Phillips II	F	Fr	6'6"	28-0	7.9	2.1	1.3	0.2	0.3	46.6%	37.0%	1.6	35.7%	19.1%
22	Sean Jones	G	Jr	5'10"	8-3	21.4	6.3	1.4	3.9	1.5	40.6%	32.1%	3.5	68.8%	21.5%
8	Joshua Clark	F	So	7'1"	22-0	5.7	1.4	2.0	0.0	0.0	46.7%	—	0.0	23.1%	16.6%
40	Casey O'Malley	G	Sr	6'3"	4-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	14.6%
42	Braeden Brenn	F	Fr	6'8"	3-0	1.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	19.3%
41	Jonah Lucas	G	Sr	6'1"	3-0	1.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	—	—	0.0	—	19.3%
21	Ian Miletic	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Nash Walker	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
6	Sheek Pearson	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

N Illinois2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Makhai Valentine	G	So	6'3"	29-29	30.7	13.3	5.3	1.0	1.2	53.1%	35.8%	6.7	81.3%	24.0%
0	Gianni Cobb	G	So	6'0"	30-19	29.0	9.8	2.7	3.9	2.4	46.2%	26.8%	2.4	59.8%	24.3%
6	Taj Walters	G	Fr	6'5"	29-23	27.1	8.5	5.4	0.6	1.3	52.4%	38.3%	2.8	78.3%	18.8%
96	Gustav Winther	F	Fr	6'10"	30-21	21.2	8.1	4.2	0.9	1.4	64.5%	42.9%	0.2	54.7%	21.2%
3	Daemar Kelly	G	Jr	6'5"	29-15	20.6	5.6	3.1	1.2	1.2	35.2%	25.6%	2.8	76.7%	21.9%
7	Hassan Washington	F	Jr	6'8"	29-14	16.6	4.7	3.2	0.6	1.9	59.9%	43.8%	0.6	44.4%	20.6%
10	Jao Ituka	G	Jr	6'1"	15-0	14.1	6.9	2.5	0.9	0.3	48.9%	34.4%	4.1	81.0%	27.4%
2	Carlos Coronado	G	Fr	6'3"	20-1	10.3	3.9	0.8	0.6	1.0	41.2%	20.8%	1.2	68.9%	26.2%
8	Ladji Kante	F	Fr	6'7"	17-0	9.2	2.8	1.2	0.4	0.6	43.8%	20.0%	0.9	65.0%	21.2%
23	Jaylen Wharton	F	Jr	6'9"	18-0	7.0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.3	45.2%	—	0.0	42.1%	20.2%
11	Isaiah Washington	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	8.9	2.7	1.3	0.5	0.5	38.9%	11.1%	0.8	64.3%	22.3%
16	Isaiah Stewart	G	Fr	6'6"	13-0	5.5	1.2	0.9	0.3	0.2	60.0%	40.0%	0.4	66.7%	11.0%
4	JJ Taylor	F	Jr	6'8"	3-2	21.0	8.7	2.7	0.3	3.0	41.7%	11.1%	3.0	68.8%	29.3%
21	Max Laskey	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	2.5	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	13.9%
15	Lataevyon Taylor	G	So	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

N Illinois

Against the spread

Season

13-15

Home

3-8

Road

10-7

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −10.6

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

8-20

Home

4-7

Road

4-13

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −4.7

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 9 as an underdogOver in 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	AkronAdjEM #48	A	L 55–94	+23.5	L−15.5	156.0	U149	79.5	135.8	69.2
Mar 3	Kent StateAdjEM #157	H	L 76–102	+10.0	L−16.0	149.5	O178	100.2	134.5	75.9
Feb 28	Ball StateAdjEM #295	H	L 43–79	−1.5	L−37.5	133.5	U122	68.4	125.7	62.8
Feb 24	ToledoAdjEM #115	A	L 69–79	+12.5	W+2.5	150.0	U148	104.3	119.5	66.1
Feb 21	OhioAdjEM #233	H	L 66–74	+5.5	L−2.5	150.0	U140	102.2	114.6	64.6
Feb 17	BuffaloAdjEM #186	A	W 72–70	+8.5	W+10.5	147.5	U142	108.1	105.1	66.6
Feb 14	C MichiganAdjEM #283	A	L 46–88	+4.5	L−37.5	146.0	U134	67.4	128.9	68.3
Feb 11	Bowling GreenAdjEM #114	H	L 52–68	+7.5	L−8.5	145.0	U120	74.6	97.6	69.7
Feb 7	Georgia StAdjEM #310	A	W 75–74	+4.5	W+5.5	142.0	O149	104.8	103.4	71.6
Jan 31	#24Miami OHAdjEM #66	A	L 61–85	+17.0	L−7.0	155.5	U146	83.2	116.0	73.3

Marquette

Against the spread

Season

11-19-2

Home

6-10-1

Road

5-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +5.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-18

Home

6-11

Road

6-6

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −8.2

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	XavierAdjEM #129	N	L 87–89	−4.0	L−6.0	157.0	O176	113.7	116.3	76.6
Mar 7	#4UConnAdjEM #10	H	W 68–62	+10.0	W+16.0	142.5	U130	101.1	92.2	67.2
Mar 4	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	A	W 78–56	+4.5	W+26.5	162.0	U134	109.9	78.9	71.0
Mar 1	DePaulAdjEM #113	H	L 51–62	−4.5	L−15.5	139.5	U113	80.6	98.0	63.2
Feb 24	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	A	W 76–60	+2.5	W+18.5	150.5	U136	116.6	92.0	65.2
Feb 18	#17St John'sAdjEM #16	H	L 70–76	+8.5	W+2.5	157.0	U146	102.2	110.9	68.5
Feb 14	XavierAdjEM #129	A	L 88–96	+2.0	L−6.0	157.5	O184	122.1	133.1	72.1
Feb 10	VillanovaAdjEM #40	A	L 74–77	+9.5	W+6.5	145.0	O151	105.5	109.8	70.1
Feb 7	ButlerAdjEM #87	H	W 70–55	−3.5	W+11.5	155.5	U125	104.6	82.2	66.9
Jan 31	Seton HallAdjEM #56	A	L 64–69	+5.5	W+0.5	143.0	U133	102.8	110.8	62.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

N IllinoisMarquette

Efficiency

100.3

108.7

111.9

104.8

68.5

69.5

—

Shooting

47.6%

50.5%

48.5%

52.7%

30.9%

31.7%

65.7%

67.5%

38.3%

32.8%

Ball control & glass

21.8%

16.0%

16.3%

19.3%

30.3%

29.7%

30.0%

34.7%

11.7%

9.7%

14.5%

10.0%

Style

45.0%

42.2%

41.5%

47.8%

12.7%

19.5%

51.8%

58.1%

31.5%

29.0%

Roster

1.91

2.02

6'4.7"

6'5.9"

86.8%

79.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

N Illinois

Returning minutes: 86.8%Returning production: 90.1%

Lost

Dylan Ducommun 26.5 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Buffalo

Added

Lataevyon Taylor no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Marquette

Returning minutes: 79.8%Returning production: 78.7%

Lost

Chase Ross 32.9 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Zaide Lowery 8.0 mpg, 2.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Sheek Pearson no D1 minutes last season
Nash Walker no D1 minutes last season
Ian Miletic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 80% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.