Toledo Rockets vs Detroit Mercy Titans basketball preview & prediction

Sat, Nov 14 · 4:00 PM ET · Calihan Hall, Detroit, MI

Non-conferenceESPN+Calihan Hall, Detroit, MI

Toledo

1-2 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #124

Detroit Mercy

0-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #324

Sat, Nov 14 · 4:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Toledo is the faster team (75.1, #62 of 365) and Detroit Mercy the slower (67.3, #279). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.3

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

71.6#116

Toledo

70.3#203

Detroit Mercy

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Detroit Mercy has the ball−21.7

Toledo has the ball+6.9

Detroit Mercy has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 26.3% #359 · TOL allows 50.0% #163−14.3

✗Coughs it upTO% 29.7% #353 · TOL forces 17.7% #188 · ~17 turnovers−5.5

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 3.4% #359 · TOL allows 37.1% #186 · FT 50.0% #350−2.7

✓Wins second chancesOR% 29.5% #221 · TOL allows 38.0% #293+0.8

Toledo has the ball

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 14.6% #75 · DETM forces 4.5% #359 · ~5 turnovers+9.5

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 36.7% #178 · DETM allows 13.0% #4 · FT 61.1% #301−1.9

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 42.9% #292 · DETM allows 55.8% #280−1.5

✓Wins second chancesOR% 26.3% #268 · DETM allows 42.5% #330+0.7

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Toledooffense vsDetroit Mercydefense

Share of shots by zone

Toledo shoots

31.8

14.0

21.2

33.0

Detroit Mercy allows

34.0

4.0

10.0

52.0

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	52.6%#243	70.6%#311	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.0%#153	50.0%#243	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.5%#131	60.0%#329	34.7%
Three	22.2%#333	30.8%#142	32.5%

Detroit Mercyoffense vsToledodefense

Share of shots by zone

Detroit Mercy shoots

30.3

3.0

18.2

48.5

Toledo allows

34.9

5.7

15.4

44.0

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	30.0%#356	57.4%#165	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	0.0%#323	50.0%#243	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	50.0%#45	25.9%#101	34.7%
Three	17.9%#354	34.8%#226	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Toledo

−1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#196 of 365

Off reb %

26.3%

#268

Def reb %

62.0%

#293

Turnover %

14.6%

#75

Forced TO %

17.7%

#188

FT rate

36.7%

#178

FT allowed

37.1%

#186

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding−2.1

Ball security+2.6

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed+0.2

Detroit Mercy

−24.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#358 of 365

Off reb %

29.5%

#221

Def reb %

57.5%

#330

Turnover %

29.7%

#353

Forced TO %

4.5%

#359

FT rate

3.4%

#359

FT allowed

13.0%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding−3.6

Ball security−8.1

Forcing turnovers−9.7

Foul shots drawn−8.8

Foul shots allowed+6.5

Toledo has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.5 (#196 of 365) to Detroit Mercy’s −24.4 (#358).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Toledo2026-27 numbers · last game: Marshall, Nov 7

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	G	Jr	6'3"	3-3	33.0	37	—	Started last	16.3	2.3	2.7	1.7	44.2%	18.2%	7.3	84.6%	28.7%
1	G	Sr	5'10"	3-3	29.3	35	—	Started last	8.0	2.7	6.0	1.3	33.3%	33.3%	2.0	83.3%	18.3%
32	F	Jr	6'9"	3-3	29.0	32	—	Started last	12.3	7.3	1.0	1.7	41.0%	22.2%	3.0	71.4%	28.6%
9	G	Sr	6'6"	3-1	25.7	25	—	Bench	14.7	6.3	2.0	1.3	51.3%	28.6%	2.3	57.1%	31.7%
10	F	So	6'5"	3-2	18.0	6	—	Bench	2.7	2.3	1.7	1.7	31.3%	20.0%	1.7	60.0%	15.0%
11	G	So	6'4"	3-1	17.3	15	—	Started last	3.0	3.7	0.3	0.7	45.0%	50.0%	0.7	0.0%	13.6%
23	F	Jr	6'5"	3-0	15.0	20	—	Bench	3.7	1.7	0.7	1.0	34.6%	20.0%	1.7	25.0%	23.3%
25	C	Sr	6'10"	2-2	20.5	24	—	Started last	6.5	6.0	0.5	0.5	46.2%	0.0%	1.0	20.0%	20.7%
7	G	Fr	6'1"	3-0	10.7	5	—	Bench	1.7	0.3	0.7	0.3	40.0%	0.0%	1.0	50.0%	11.6%
24	F	Fr	6'7"	3-0	7.0	1	—	Bench	3.0	1.7	0.3	0.0	33.3%	—	0.0	70.0%	19.8%
2	G	Fr	6'3"	1-0	3.0	0	—	Missed last game	3.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	150.0%	100.0%	1.0	—	36.3%
3	G	Fr	6'4"	1-0	1.0	—	—	Missed last	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
0	F	So	6'6"	1-0	1.0	—	—	Missed last	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	54.5%

Into the starting lineup: Will James Jr..Into the starting lineup: Austin Parks.Out of the starting lineup: Angel Montas Jr..Out of the starting lineup: Chris Riddle.

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Toledo

Against the spread

Season

2-1

Home

0-0

Road

2-1

Last 10

2-1

avg cover +1.8

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

0-3

Home

0-0

Road

0-3

Last 10

0-3

avg vs total −9.7

Under 3 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 10	Wright StAdjEM #77	H	L 68–76	+1.5	L−6.5	157.5	U144	98.2	109.8	69.2
Nov 7	MarshallAdjEM #132	A	W 81–76	+2.0	W+7.0	158.0	U157	105.7	99.1	76.7
Nov 5	#6Michigan StAdjEM #8	A	L 61–91	+26.0	L−4.0	155.0	U152	83.1	124.0	73.4
Nov 2	Arkansas StAdjEM #130	A	L 70–71	+3.5	W+2.5	166.0	U141	92.9	94.2	75.4
Mar 14	AkronAdjEM #59	N	L 76–79	+8.0	W+5.0	157.5	U155	111.4	115.8	68.2
Mar 13	UMassAdjEM #173	N	W 77–67	−3.0	W+7.0	158.0	U144	109.5	95.3	70.3
Mar 12	Bowling GreenAdjEM #127	N	W 77–76	−1.5	L−0.5	152.0	O153	113.1	111.6	68.1
Mar 6	BuffaloAdjEM #252	H	W 99–78	−5.5	W+15.5	156.5	O177	151.8	119.6	65.2
Mar 3	#19Miami OHAdjEM #88	A	L 72–74	+8.0	W+6.0	162.5	U146	104.7	107.6	68.8
Feb 28	OhioAdjEM #168	A	W 79–67	+2.5	W+14.5	159.0	U146	119.4	101.2	66.2

Detroit Mercy

Against the spread

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-1

avg cover −29.0

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-1

avg vs total −30.0

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 10	XavierAdjEM #66	A	L 55–100	+35.5	L−9.5	156.0	U155	63.9	116.2	86.1
Nov 6	MarquetteAdjEM #30	A	L 32–93	+32.0	L−29.0	155.0	U125	47.5	138.1	67.3
Mar 10	Wright StAdjEM #77	N	L 63–66	+5.0	W+2.0	153.5	U129	92.4	96.8	68.2
Mar 9	Robert MorrisAdjEM #256	N	W 70–64	+4.0	W+10.0	146.5	U134	111.1	101.5	63.0
Mar 4	MilwaukeeAdjEM #296	H	W 84–63	−1.0	W+20.0	151.5	U147	124.9	93.7	67.2
Feb 28	OaklandAdjEM #267	A	W 95–89	+8.0	W+14.0	161.5	O184	131.7	123.4	72.1
Feb 25	Robert MorrisAdjEM #256	A	L 62–73	+8.0	L−3.0	150.5	U135	97.5	114.8	63.6
Feb 22	Green BayAdjEM #166	H	W 74–70	−1.0	W+3.0	147.5	U144	107.2	101.4	69.0
Feb 20	MilwaukeeAdjEM #296	H	W 91–86	+1.0	W+6.0	153.0	O177	129.7	122.5	70.2
Feb 15	Youngstown StAdjEM #167	H	W 76–70	+3.0	W+9.0	150.5	U146	106.3	97.9	71.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

ToledoDetroit Mercy

Efficiency

107.3

99.3

104.5

111.4

71.6

70.3

9.3

16.6

Shooting

42.9%

26.3%

47.4%

25.8%

22.2%

17.9%

61.1%

50.0%

36.7%

3.4%

Ball control & glass

14.6%

29.7%

17.7%

4.5%

26.3%

29.5%

38.0%

42.5%

10.2%

17.8%

6.8%

22.6%

Style

32.1%

47.5%

44.3%

31.3%

18.4%

15.6%

61.0%

38.5%

32.8%

34.3%

Roster

2.98

2.71

6'4.5"

6'5.5"

36.0%

38.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Toledo

Returning minutes: 36.0%Returning production: 34.0%

Lost

Sonny Wilson 36.2 mpg, 17.0 ppg · transferred to South Florida
Leroy Blyden Jr. 33.4 mpg, 16.4 ppg · transferred to Kansas
Sean Craig 31.6 mpg, 11.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kyler Vanderjagt 22.1 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
London Praytor 2.1 mpg, 1.1 ppg · transferred to Montana St
Tyler Ode 1.3 mpg, 0.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Angel Montas Jr. from UMass Lowell · 26.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg last season
Sean Jones from Marquette · 5.3 mpg, 1.6 ppg last season
Rich Barron no D1 minutes last season
Jaylohn Allen no D1 minutes last season
Rashaun Porter no D1 minutes last season
Marco Mattucci no D1 minutes last season

Returns 36% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Detroit Mercy

Returning minutes: 38.7%Returning production: 33.5%

Lost

Orlando Lovejoy 30.0 mpg, 15.3 ppg · transferred to Green Bay
TJ Nadeau 25.7 mpg, 13.3 ppg · transferred to Tulane
Legend Geeter 23.2 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ryan Kalambay 20.0 mpg, 4.1 ppg · transferred to St Bonaventure
Nate Johnson 8.3 mpg, 2.3 ppg · transferred to Alabama A&M
Jared Lary 7.9 mpg, 1.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Keaton Aldridge Jr. no D1 minutes last season
James Martin no D1 minutes last season
Tyler Owens no D1 minutes last season
Dante Favor no D1 minutes last season
Jordan Briggs no D1 minutes last season
Vladyslav Semerych no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 39% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Nov 15	2025-26	Detroit Mercy 83 – 90 Toledo

More games on Sat, Nov 14

UNC Greensboro at Cornell · 11:00 AM ET
Tulane at Akron · 12:00 PM ET
St Thomas at Army · 1:00 PM ET
Stonehill at Texas Tech · 1:00 PM ET
Bradley vs George Mason · 1:00 PM ET
Towson vs Morgan St · 1:00 PM ET
Montana at North Dakota · 1:00 PM ET
Drexel at Maine · 1:00 PM ET
Loyola Chicago at Colorado St · 1:30 PM ET
Miami OH at Evansville · 2:00 PM ET
Gardner-Webb at South Carolina · 2:00 PM ET
Coppin St at South Florida · 2:00 PM ET
N Illinois at Bellarmine · 2:00 PM ET
Rice at SF Austin · 2:00 PM ET
The Citadel at North Florida · 2:00 PM ET
Wofford at Queens · 2:00 PM ET
Jackson St at Winthrop · 2:30 PM ET
C Michigan at N Kentucky · 3:30 PM ET
LSU at Gonzaga · 3:30 PM ET
Southern Utah at Wake Forest · 4:00 PM ET
Lafayette at St Bonaventure · 4:00 PM ET
Air Force at Pacific · 4:00 PM ET
Delaware St at East Carolina · 4:00 PM ET
UNC Asheville at Georgia Tech · 4:00 PM ET
Hampton at Navy · 4:00 PM ET
Longwood at Old Dominion · 4:00 PM ET
Wyoming at Denver · 4:00 PM ET
S Dakota St vs N Colorado · 4:00 PM ET
SC Upstate at Campbell · 4:30 PM ET
Utah Tech at California · 5:00 PM ET
Northern Iowa at Oakland · 5:00 PM ET
Colorado at Providence · 6:00 PM ET
Manhattan at Le Moyne · 6:00 PM ET
Marshall at Youngstown St · 6:00 PM ET
South Alabama at North Texas · 6:00 PM ET
UC Riverside at Fresno St · 6:00 PM ET
Penn at Saint Joseph's · 6:30 PM ET
Brown at Siena · 7:00 PM ET
West Georgia at Charleston So · 7:00 PM ET
Austin Peay at Wichita St · 7:00 PM ET
UAB at Jax State · 7:00 PM ET
Lipscomb at W Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
NJIT at Fairfield · 7:00 PM ET
Portland St at San Francisco · 7:00 PM ET
Washington at Utah · 7:00 PM ET
Rider at Villanova · 7:00 PM ET
UT Rio Grande at UT Arlington · 7:00 PM ET
Howard at Davidson · 7:00 PM ET
Louisiana at UNC Wilmington · 7:00 PM ET
Cincinnati at Dayton · 7:30 PM ET
Binghamton at Duquesne · 7:30 PM ET
IU Indy at Morehead St · 7:30 PM ET
UL Monroe at Grand Canyon · 8:00 PM ET
UC Davis at Sacramento St · 8:00 PM ET
Louisiana Tech at Nicholls · 8:00 PM ET
N'Western St at Little Rock · 8:00 PM ET
Furman at Belmont · 8:30 PM ET
Utah Valley at Nevada · 10:00 PM ET
Idaho St at Seattle U · 10:00 PM ET
New Mexico at Santa Clara · 10:00 PM ET

← Fri, Nov 13 · Sun, Nov 15 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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