UC Riverside Highlanders vs Fresno State Bulldogs basketball preview & prediction
Sat, Nov 14 · 6:00 PM ET · Save Mart Center, Fresno, CA
Non-conferenceYouTubeSave Mart Center, Fresno, CA
UC Riverside
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #257
@
Fresno St
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #185
Sat, Nov 14 · 6:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, UC Riverside is the faster team (70.6, #189 of 365) and Fresno St the slower (67.1, #290). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.6
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.0#153
UC Riverside
70.2#213
Fresno St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Fresno St has the ball−9.7
UC Riverside has the ball+0.7
Fresno St has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 44.9% #269 · UCR allows 44.8% #75−6.0
✗Coughs it upTO% 19.4% #227 · UCR forces 22.7% #59 · ~15 turnovers−3.0
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 7.4% #358 · UCR allows 22.4% #32 · FT 80.0% #45−1.4
✓Wins second chancesOR% 37.2% #85 · UCR allows 27.0% #106+0.8
UC Riverside has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 9.9% #5 · FRES forces 11.9% #333 · ~7 turnovers+7.6
✗Few second chancesOR% 22.2% #319 · FRES allows 31.4% #186−2.8
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 40.0% #324 · FRES allows 57.7% #306−2.2
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 29.2% #262 · FRES allows 15.4% #6 · FT 63.2% #278−1.9
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootUC Riversideoffense vsFresno Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
UC Riverside shoots
41.5
10.8
9.2
38.5
Fresno St allows
48.4
9.7
4.8
37.1
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 37.0%#349 | 70.0%#303 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.9%#141 | 16.7%#45 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 16.7%#298 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 32.0%#181 | 36.0%#257 | 32.5% |
Fresno Stoffense vsUC Riversidedefense
Share of shots by zone
Fresno St shoots
37.7
4.9
0.0
57.4
UC Riverside allows
43.1
8.6
13.8
34.5
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.5%#200 | 48.0%#57 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 66.7%#29 | 40.0%#193 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | — | 75.0%#347 | 34.7% |
| Three | 24.3%#311 | 20.0%#14 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineUC Riverside
+9.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#57 of 365
Off reb %
22.2%
#319
Def reb %
73.0%
#106
Turnover %
9.9%
#5
Forced TO %
22.7%
#59
FT rate
29.2%
#262
FT allowed
22.4%
#32
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.1
Defensive rebounding+1.5
Ball security+5.9
Forcing turnovers+3.3
Foul shots drawn−2.1
Foul shots allowed+4.0
Fresno St
−5.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#249 of 365
Off reb %
37.2%
#85
Def reb %
68.6%
#186
Turnover %
19.4%
#227
Forced TO %
11.9%
#333
FT rate
7.4%
#358
FT allowed
15.4%
#6
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.9
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers−4.3
Foul shots drawn−7.8
Foul shots allowed+5.9
UC Riverside has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.5 (#57 of 365) to Fresno St’s −5.2 (#249).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
UC Riverside2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 2-2 | 28.0 | 22.5 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 63.2% | 46.7% | 7.5 | 22.2% | 38.9% | Active | |
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 2-2 | 23.0 | 13.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 55.3% | 50.0% | 3.0 | 71.4% | 27.0% | Active | |
| 5 | G | So | 6'6" | 2-1 | 22.5 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 53.3% | 44.4% | 4.5 | 66.7% | 20.6% | Active | |
| 24 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 2-1 | 21.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 60.0% | 2.5 | — | 18.7% | Active | |
| 12 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 2-1 | 20.5 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 100.0% | 27.3% | Active | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'5" | 2-2 | 20.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 5.3% | Active | |
| 33 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 18.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 66.7% | 15.1% | Active | |
| 7 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 14.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 0.0% | 12.8% | Active | |
| 13 | G | So | 6'6" | 2-1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 23.1% | Active | |
| 3 | F | So | 6'10" | 2-0 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 62.5% | 50.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 46.6% | Active | |
| 23 | F | Fr | 6'7" | 1-0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 36.3% | Missed last | |
| 15 | C | So | 6'9" | 1-0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 12.3% | Missed last | |
| 10 | G | Fr | 6'6" | 1-0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 70.0% | 33.3% | 3.0 | — | 37.9% | Missed last | |
| 32 | F | Fr | 6'6" | 1-0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 25.2% | Missed last | |
| 35 | G | Fr | 6'0" | 1-0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | — | 25.2% | Missed last |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesUC Riverside
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +2.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −32.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Denver | H | W 64–60 | −1.5 | W+2.5 | 156.0 | U124 | 90.7 | 85.0 | 70.6 |
| Nov 2 | La Verne Leopards | H | W 110–47 | — | — | — | — | 139.9 | 59.8 | 78.6 |
| Mar 5 | Hawai'i | A | L 74–93 | +12.5 | L−6.5 | 149.0 | O167 | 103.1 | 129.5 | 71.8 |
| Feb 28 | CSU Northridge | H | W 95–84 | +5.5 | W+16.5 | 158.0 | O179 | 119.6 | 105.8 | 79.4 |
| Feb 26 | Santa Barbara | A | L 59–70 | +11.0 | P0.0 | 145.5 | U129 | 86.6 | 102.7 | 68.1 |
| Feb 21 | UC Davis | H | L 73–78 | +3.0 | L−2.0 | 150.0 | O151 | 98.2 | 104.9 | 74.4 |
| Feb 19 | Bakersfield | H | W 93–65 | −7.0 | W+21.0 | 151.5 | O158 | 120.6 | 84.3 | 77.1 |
| Feb 14 | UC San Diego | A | L 66–72 | +11.0 | W+5.0 | 147.5 | U138 | 92.9 | 101.3 | 71.0 |
| Feb 12 | Santa Barbara | H | L 68–76 | +7.0 | L−1.0 | 145.0 | U144 | 105.7 | 118.1 | 64.3 |
| Feb 7 | CSU Northridge | A | L 74–88 | +10.5 | L−3.5 | 159.5 | O162 | 101.6 | 120.9 | 72.8 |
Fresno St
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −5.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −5.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | UC San Diego | A | L 65–81 | +11.0 | L−5.0 | 151.0 | U146 | 96.9 | 120.8 | 67.1 |
| Nov 2 | Fresno Pacific Sunbirds | H | W 88–79 | — | — | — | — | 113.4 | 101.8 | 77.6 |
| Mar 11 | Colorado St | N | L 63–67 | +7.5 | W+3.5 | 145.5 | U130 | 100.1 | 106.4 | 63.0 |
| Mar 7 | Grand Canyon | A | L 60–85 | +12.5 | L−12.5 | 150.0 | U145 | 82.6 | 117.0 | 72.7 |
| Mar 3 | San José St | H | W 82–68 | −7.5 | W+6.5 | 149.5 | O150 | 120.2 | 99.7 | 68.2 |
| Feb 28 | Boise St | H | L 53–69 | +7.0 | L−9.0 | 149.0 | U122 | 88.3 | 114.9 | 60.0 |
| Feb 24 | Colorado St | A | L 70–74 | +8.5 | W+4.5 | 148.5 | U144 | 105.0 | 111.0 | 66.7 |
| Feb 21 | New Mexico | H | L 78–80 | +9.0 | W+7.0 | 156.5 | O158 | 116.0 | 119.0 | 67.2 |
| Feb 17 | Wyoming | A | L 82–92 | +9.5 | L−0.5 | 147.5 | O174 | 125.6 | 140.9 | 65.3 |
| Feb 14 | Air Force | H | W 93–63 | −15.0 | W+15.0 | 142.0 | O156 | 127.5 | 86.4 | 72.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUC RiversideFresno St
Efficiency
99.2
103.7
105.2
105.3
71.0
70.2
-2.7
4.5
Shooting
40.0%
44.9%
35.0%
54.8%
32.0%
24.3%
63.2%
80.0%
29.2%
7.4%
Ball control & glass
9.9%
19.4%
22.7%
11.9%
22.2%
37.2%
27.0%
31.4%
5.7%
11.9%
5.0%
3.2%
Style
38.5%
54.4%
37.5%
52.3%
7.8%
7.7%
68.2%
53.8%
45.3%
18.3%
Roster
3.02
2.66
6'5.5"
6'5.9"
17.6%
0.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUC Riverside
Returning minutes: 17.6%Returning production: 16.5%
Lost
- Marqui Worthy Jr. 35.0 mpg, 16.4 ppg · transferred to San Diego
- Andrew Henderson 33.3 mpg, 18.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Osiris Grady 30.9 mpg, 10.2 ppg · transferred to Sacramento St
- BJ Kolly 23.0 mpg, 8.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jailen Daniel-Dalton 18.9 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tyler Jones 12.5 mpg, 2.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- James Evans Jr. from CSU Northridge · 15.2 mpg, 6.0 ppg last season
- Devon Malcolm from CA Baptist · 13.2 mpg, 5.6 ppg last season
- Dallas Washington from Long Beach St · 7.9 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
- Tony Duckett from Saint Mary's · 4.4 mpg, 2.1 ppg last season
- Abraham Oyeadier from West Virginia · 0.1 mpg, 0.0 ppg last season
- Brayden Harris no D1 minutes last season
Returns 18% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Fresno St
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
- Jake Heidbreder 34.7 mpg, 15.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- DeShawn Gory 29.3 mpg, 13.7 ppg · transferred to Oregon St
- Wilson Jacques 27.4 mpg, 8.8 ppg · transferred to DePaul
- Zaon Collins 24.9 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to Ball State
- Cameron Faas 19.1 mpg, 5.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Bastien Rieber 16.4 mpg, 4.0 ppg · transferred to Niagara
Added
- Ross Candelino from Lipscomb · 21.8 mpg, 9.8 ppg last season
- Bradey Henige from CA Baptist · 19.6 mpg, 4.8 ppg last season
- Brian Amuneke from Wichita St · 7.9 mpg, 2.4 ppg last season
- Dragos Lungu from UT Martin · 4.7 mpg, 2.5 ppg last season
- Baye Fall from Rutgers · 1.4 mpg, 0.1 ppg last season
- Nathan Zulemie no D1 minutes last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Sat, Nov 14
- UNC Greensboro at Cornell · 11:00 AM ET
- Tulane at Akron · 12:00 PM ET
- St Thomas at Army · 1:00 PM ET
- Stonehill at Texas Tech · 1:00 PM ET
- Bradley vs George Mason · 1:00 PM ET
- Towson vs Morgan St · 1:00 PM ET
- Montana at North Dakota · 1:00 PM ET
- Drexel at Maine · 1:00 PM ET
- Loyola Chicago at Colorado St · 1:30 PM ET
- Miami OH at Evansville · 2:00 PM ET
- Gardner-Webb at South Carolina · 2:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at South Florida · 2:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Bellarmine · 2:00 PM ET
- Rice at SF Austin · 2:00 PM ET
- The Citadel at North Florida · 2:00 PM ET
- Wofford at Queens · 2:00 PM ET
- Jackson St at Winthrop · 2:30 PM ET
- C Michigan at N Kentucky · 3:30 PM ET
- LSU at Gonzaga · 3:30 PM ET
- Southern Utah at Wake Forest · 4:00 PM ET
- Lafayette at St Bonaventure · 4:00 PM ET
- Air Force at Pacific · 4:00 PM ET
- Delaware St at East Carolina · 4:00 PM ET
- UNC Asheville at Georgia Tech · 4:00 PM ET
- Hampton at Navy · 4:00 PM ET
- Longwood at Old Dominion · 4:00 PM ET
- Wyoming at Denver · 4:00 PM ET
- S Dakota St vs N Colorado · 4:00 PM ET
- Toledo at Detroit Mercy · 4:00 PM ET
- SC Upstate at Campbell · 4:30 PM ET
- Utah Tech at California · 5:00 PM ET
- Northern Iowa at Oakland · 5:00 PM ET
- Colorado at Providence · 6:00 PM ET
- Manhattan at Le Moyne · 6:00 PM ET
- Marshall at Youngstown St · 6:00 PM ET
- South Alabama at North Texas · 6:00 PM ET
- Penn at Saint Joseph's · 6:30 PM ET
- Brown at Siena · 7:00 PM ET
- West Georgia at Charleston So · 7:00 PM ET
- Austin Peay at Wichita St · 7:00 PM ET
- UAB at Jax State · 7:00 PM ET
- Lipscomb at W Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at Fairfield · 7:00 PM ET
- Portland St at San Francisco · 7:00 PM ET
- Washington at Utah · 7:00 PM ET
- Rider at Villanova · 7:00 PM ET
- UT Rio Grande at UT Arlington · 7:00 PM ET
- Howard at Davidson · 7:00 PM ET
- Louisiana at UNC Wilmington · 7:00 PM ET
- Cincinnati at Dayton · 7:30 PM ET
- Binghamton at Duquesne · 7:30 PM ET
- IU Indy at Morehead St · 7:30 PM ET
- UL Monroe at Grand Canyon · 8:00 PM ET
- UC Davis at Sacramento St · 8:00 PM ET
- Louisiana Tech at Nicholls · 8:00 PM ET
- N'Western St at Little Rock · 8:00 PM ET
- Furman at Belmont · 8:30 PM ET
- Utah Valley at Nevada · 10:00 PM ET
- Idaho St at Seattle U · 10:00 PM ET
- New Mexico at Santa Clara · 10:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.