CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceColonial Life Arena, Columbia, SC

Gardner-Webb

Efficiency #363

2025-26: 4-29 · 2-16 conf

South Carolina

Efficiency #123

2025-26: 13-19 · 4-15 conf

Sat, Nov 14 · TBD

65.6

win 6%

Projected

83.8

win 94%

No line posted yet.

Model: SC −18.2 · total 149.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: South Carolina 67.6, Gardner-Webb 69.8 → 69.1 possessions

+1.7

South Carolina offense vs Gardner-Webb defense

+6.8

Gardner-Webb offense vs South Carolina defense

−7.3

Projected total

149.4

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

South Carolina offense vs Gardner-Webb defense

+6.8

Gardner-Webb offense vs South Carolina defense

+7.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

South Carolina by 18.2

18.2

Gardner-Webb side ◂▸ South Carolina side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +18.1 against +18.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help South Carolina.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Gardner-Webb is the faster team (70.8, #62 of 365) and South Carolina the slower (68.0, #202). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

149.4

model

Projected team totals

65.6 / 83.8

Gardner-Webb / South Carolina

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.8#64

Gardner-Webb

67.6#241

South Carolina

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSouth Carolina

Where South Carolina scores: shooting

South Carolina shoots an effective 50.3% (#226); Gardner-Webb allows 56.9% (#356). Expect about 53.6%, 2.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversSouth Carolina

South Carolina protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.5% is worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions for South Carolina's offense.

AdvantageGardner-Webb

Where Gardner-Webb struggles: shooting

Gardner-Webb shoots an effective 47.8% (#317); South Carolina allows 51.6% (#188). Expect about 49.4%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions.

GlassGardner-Webb

Gardner-Webb gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.2% is worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions against Gardner-Webb's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (South Carolina, Gardner-Webb) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Gardner-Webb at about 37.4% of its shots from three, South Carolina about 44.4%.

ClashGardner-Webb

Style clash: ball movement

Gardner-Webb creates off the dribble (assists on 41.0% of its baskets); South Carolina allows assists on 57.2% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 48.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

Gardner-Webb has the ball

OffenseSouth Carolina allowsvs D1 avg

47.8% #317

51.6% #188

-2.7 pt/100

19.8% #344

14.6% #314

-0.5 pt/100

23.2% #350

32.1% #263

-2.6 pt/100

30.3% #302

34.0% #151

-0.4 pt/100

68.5% #313

—

-0.3 pt/100

Gardner-Webb net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.4 pts/100

South Carolina has the ball

OffenseGardner-Webb allowsvs D1 avg

50.3% #226

56.9% #356

+3.3 pt/100

14.5% #42

15.3% #264

+2.8 pt/100

27.2% #289

36.6% #355

+0.4 pt/100

36.7% #137

35.2% #185

+0.1 pt/100

78.1% #14

—

+0.5 pt/100

South Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Gardner-Webboffense vsSouth Carolinadefense

Share of shots by zone

Gardner-Webb shoots

42.6

5.3

13.4

38.7

South Carolina allows

38.5

7.1

18.2

36.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.3%#315	63.9%#340	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	27.4%#361	35.3%#65	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.1%#311	40.5%#258	38.0%
Three	31.0%#320	31.8%#56	33.7%

South Carolinaoffense vsGardner-Webbdefense

Share of shots by zone

South Carolina shoots

33.0

7.1

15.4

44.5

Gardner-Webb allows

41.8

5.5

11.5

41.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.7%#130	65.9%#357	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.8%#200	44.7%#287	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	43.4%#32	37.3%#139	38.0%
Three	31.1%#317	36.0%#300	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Gardner-Webb

−8.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#364 of 365

Off reb %

23.2%

#350

Def reb %

63.4%

#355

Turnover %

19.8%

#344

Forced TO %

15.3%

#264

FT rate

30.3%

#302

FT allowed

35.2%

#185

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.3

Defensive rebounding−1.9

Ball security−2.1

Forcing turnovers−0.9

Foul shots drawn−1.2

Foul shots allowed0.0

South Carolina

−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#203 of 365

Off reb %

27.2%

#289

Def reb %

67.9%

#263

Turnover %

14.5%

#42

Forced TO %

14.6%

#314

FT rate

36.7%

#137

FT allowed

34.0%

#151

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.0

Defensive rebounding−0.5

Ball security+1.6

Forcing turnovers−1.4

Foul shots drawn+0.4

Foul shots allowed+0.3

South Carolina has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.6 (#203 of 365) to Gardner-Webb’s −8.5 (#364).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Gardner-Webb2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Gardner-Webb's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Colin Hawkins	G	So	6'3"	31-31	27.2	8.2	1.8	2.1	2.1	46.0%	23.8%	1.4	59.0%	22.0%
5	Jacob Hogarth	F	So	6'9"	33-30	25.0	10.7	7.1	1.3	2.4	53.8%	40.0%	0.5	70.6%	26.3%
25	Ace Talbert	G	Jr	6'0"	32-29	25.3	6.9	1.9	1.4	0.9	44.3%	26.1%	4.4	61.7%	18.6%
6	Jacob Hudson	G	So	6'2"	29-17	27.1	10.7	4.0	1.7	1.6	48.8%	25.0%	1.8	65.1%	24.7%
1	Spence Sims	G	Fr	6'1"	32-15	24.5	9.9	1.9	0.8	1.6	59.6%	43.0%	5.2	75.8%	22.6%
10	Curtis Williams III	G	Jr	6'7"	26-22	21.3	6.6	2.9	0.7	0.8	43.7%	27.4%	2.8	70.2%	20.5%
0	Jamias Ferere	G	Fr	6'6"	32-8	17.0	6.3	2.9	0.7	1.3	44.0%	23.7%	1.2	77.0%	25.6%
4	DJ Jefferson	G	Jr	6'4"	27-3	16.7	7.6	2.8	0.4	1.4	51.1%	35.1%	3.5	62.9%	29.0%
11	NaVuan Peterson	F	Sr	6'6"	27-4	13.2	3.1	2.1	0.9	0.4	43.5%	26.7%	2.2	84.6%	16.2%
7	Riek Riek	F	Sr	6'9"	27-0	10.4	1.4	1.3	0.5	0.8	47.2%	26.1%	0.9	66.7%	12.0%
35	Bo Barber	G	Sr	5'10"	17-0	8.2	1.1	0.6	0.8	0.8	28.6%	0.0%	0.4	90.9%	13.1%
3	Julius Clark	G	Jr	6'7"	8-4	17.0	7.3	2.0	0.5	0.6	52.7%	23.1%	1.6	73.1%	21.9%
21	Ahmadou Ndiaye	G	Jr	6'8"	10-0	4.7	0.3	0.7	0.1	0.8	30.0%	50.0%	0.2	0.0%	16.2%
12	Cameron Gales	G	So	6'0"	10-0	1.7	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	21.4%	25.0%	0.4	—	26.1%
9	Paul Lindberg	G	Jr	6'4"	8-1	1.9	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	35.7%	50.0%	0.3	—	26.2%
2	Isaiah Hicks	G	Jr	6'0"	5-1	2.0	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.2	20.0%	0.0%	0.6	—	34.3%
8	Ashton King	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

South Carolina2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
15	Eli Ellis	G	Fr	6'0"	28-0	26.9	8.6	2.8	2.0	1.0	44.2%	28.0%	2.9	87.9%	20.8%
10	Myles Stute	G	Sr	6'7"	27-24	23.3	5.6	3.7	0.9	1.0	47.6%	30.9%	4.1	64.0%	16.8%
31	Elijah Strong	F	Jr	6'8"	32-18	17.1	10.0	2.3	0.9	0.9	49.3%	27.8%	3.0	75.9%	36.1%
13	Grant Polk	G	Fr	6'6"	30-0	12.9	3.8	1.1	0.1	0.2	51.5%	32.9%	2.6	90.9%	17.1%
6	EJ Walker	F	Fr	6'7"	22-6	15.9	2.9	2.7	0.4	0.8	49.1%	24.1%	1.3	47.1%	13.9%
24	Nordin Kapic	F	Sr	6'8"	22-4	10.8	3.9	2.0	0.4	0.4	52.1%	34.0%	2.1	69.2%	21.7%
20	Hayden Assemian	F	Fr	6'6"	24-4	9.8	2.4	2.5	0.3	0.5	69.4%	—	0.0	57.1%	13.7%
0	Jordan Butler	F	Jr	7'0"	25-4	8.9	2.8	1.8	0.2	0.2	53.4%	25.0%	0.8	77.4%	17.1%
14	Eli Sparkman	G	Sr	6'0"	12-0	3.5	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.0	42.9%	28.6%	0.6	—	9.7%
7	Abu Yarmah	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
23	Cam Scott	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Gardner-Webb2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Gardner-Webb's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Colin Hawkins	G	So	6'3"	31-31	27.2	8.2	1.8	2.1	2.1	46.0%	23.8%	1.4	59.0%	22.0%
5	Jacob Hogarth	F	So	6'9"	33-30	25.0	10.7	7.1	1.3	2.4	53.8%	40.0%	0.5	70.6%	26.3%
25	Ace Talbert	G	Jr	6'0"	32-29	25.3	6.9	1.9	1.4	0.9	44.3%	26.1%	4.4	61.7%	18.6%
6	Jacob Hudson	G	So	6'2"	29-17	27.1	10.7	4.0	1.7	1.6	48.8%	25.0%	1.8	65.1%	24.7%
1	Spence Sims	G	Fr	6'1"	32-15	24.5	9.9	1.9	0.8	1.6	59.6%	43.0%	5.2	75.8%	22.6%
10	Curtis Williams III	G	Jr	6'7"	26-22	21.3	6.6	2.9	0.7	0.8	43.7%	27.4%	2.8	70.2%	20.5%
0	Jamias Ferere	G	Fr	6'6"	32-8	17.0	6.3	2.9	0.7	1.3	44.0%	23.7%	1.2	77.0%	25.6%
4	DJ Jefferson	G	Jr	6'4"	27-3	16.7	7.6	2.8	0.4	1.4	51.1%	35.1%	3.5	62.9%	29.0%
11	NaVuan Peterson	F	Sr	6'6"	27-4	13.2	3.1	2.1	0.9	0.4	43.5%	26.7%	2.2	84.6%	16.2%
7	Riek Riek	F	Sr	6'9"	27-0	10.4	1.4	1.3	0.5	0.8	47.2%	26.1%	0.9	66.7%	12.0%
35	Bo Barber	G	Sr	5'10"	17-0	8.2	1.1	0.6	0.8	0.8	28.6%	0.0%	0.4	90.9%	13.1%
3	Julius Clark	G	Jr	6'7"	8-4	17.0	7.3	2.0	0.5	0.6	52.7%	23.1%	1.6	73.1%	21.9%
21	Ahmadou Ndiaye	G	Jr	6'8"	10-0	4.7	0.3	0.7	0.1	0.8	30.0%	50.0%	0.2	0.0%	16.2%
12	Cameron Gales	G	So	6'0"	10-0	1.7	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	21.4%	25.0%	0.4	—	26.1%
9	Paul Lindberg	G	Jr	6'4"	8-1	1.9	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	35.7%	50.0%	0.3	—	26.2%
2	Isaiah Hicks	G	Jr	6'0"	5-1	2.0	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.2	20.0%	0.0%	0.6	—	34.3%
8	Ashton King	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Gardner-Webb

Against the spread

Season

15-14-1

Home

7-3

Road

6-9-1

Last 10

9-1

avg cover +5.0

Covered 9 straightCovered 9 of 10 as an underdogCovered 9 of 10 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

16-13-1

Home

8-2

Road

7-8-1

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −1.5

Under 3 straightOver in 4 of 10 as an underdogOver in 4 of 10 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	High PointAdjEM #50	N	L 59–81	+27.5	W+5.5	156.5	U140	84.0	115.3	70.3
Mar 4	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	N	W 65–64	+11.0	W+12.0	144.0	U129	100.7	99.1	64.6
Feb 28	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	A	L 61–71	+13.5	W+3.5	146.5	U132	86.8	101.0	70.3
Feb 26	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	H	L 71–77	+12.5	W+6.5	145.5	O148	114.6	124.2	62.0
Feb 19	RadfordAdjEM #245	A	L 70–82	+19.0	W+7.0	162.5	U152	101.4	118.8	69.0
Feb 17	Charleston SoAdjEM #220	A	L 66–75	+17.5	W+8.5	160.5	U141	88.8	100.9	74.4
Feb 14	High PointAdjEM #50	H	L 87–112	+25.5	W+0.5	162.0	O199	111.4	143.5	78.1
Feb 12	WinthropAdjEM #116	H	L 85–103	+20.5	W+2.5	155.0	O188	110.9	134.4	76.7
Feb 7	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	A	L 62–68	+17.5	W+11.5	145.5	U130	97.9	107.4	63.3
Feb 4	LongwoodAdjEM #248	H	L 66–86	+12.5	L−7.5	148.0	O152	93.0	121.1	71.0

South Carolina

Against the spread

Season

14-17-1

Home

6-12-1

Road

7-3

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 10 as an underdogCovered 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-16-1

Home

9-10

Road

3-6-1

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −2.5

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 10 as an underdogOver in 1 of 5 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	OklahomaAdjEM #47	N	L 74–86	+8.0	L−4.0	149.0	O160	116.1	134.9	63.8
Mar 7	Ole MissAdjEM #82	A	W 64–61	+7.0	W+10.0	147.0	U125	96.5	92.0	66.3
Mar 3	#23TennesseeAdjEM #13	H	L 59–78	+11.0	L−8.0	142.0	U137	95.8	126.6	61.6
Feb 28	GeorgiaAdjEM #32	A	L 68–87	+12.5	L−6.5	159.0	U155	107.0	136.9	63.5
Feb 24	KentuckyAdjEM #27	H	L 63–72	+7.5	L−1.5	151.0	U135	87.7	100.3	71.8
Feb 21	Mississippi StAdjEM #144	H	W 97–89	+1.0	W+9.0	152.0	O186	133.7	122.7	72.5
Feb 17	#12FloridaAdjEM #5	A	L 62–76	+23.0	W+9.0	155.0	U138	92.5	113.4	67.0
Feb 14	AlabamaAdjEM #18	A	L 75–89	+18.0	W+4.0	169.5	U164	99.1	117.6	75.7
Feb 7	MissouriAdjEM #67	H	L 59–78	+3.0	L−16.0	147.0	U137	90.0	119.0	65.5
Feb 3	TexasAdjEM #38	A	L 75–84	+13.5	W+4.5	149.5	O159	109.9	123.1	68.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Gardner-WebbSouth Carolina

Efficiency

99.1

109.7

117.1

107.3

69.8

67.6

—

Shooting

47.8%

50.3%

48.6%

53.2%

31.0%

31.1%

68.5%

78.1%

30.3%

36.7%

Ball control & glass

19.8%

14.5%

15.3%

14.6%

23.2%

27.2%

36.6%

32.1%

11.7%

9.3%

10.4%

11.1%

Style

39.8%

44.4%

46.5%

39.4%

14.3%

8.7%

41.0%

52.9%

36.5%

35.7%

Roster

2.34

2.25

6'4.1"

6'5.7"

—

52.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Gardner-Webb

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Gardner-Webb's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

South Carolina

Returning minutes: 52.6%Returning production: 42.7%

Lost

Meechie Johnson 31.5 mpg, 17.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kobe Knox 29.9 mpg, 10.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Mike Sharavjamts 29.7 mpg, 10.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Christ Essandoko 4.9 mpg, 1.3 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green

Added

Abu Yarmah no D1 minutes last season
Cam Scott no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 53% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.