CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceHornet Pavilion, Sacramento, CA

UC Davis

Efficiency #185

2025-26: 19-14 · 12-10 conf

Sacramento St

Efficiency #280

2025-26: 10-21 · 6-13 conf

Sat, Nov 14 · 8:00 PM ET

77.7

win 49%

Projected

77.9

win 51%

No line posted yet.

Model: SAC −0.2 · total 155.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Sacramento St 71.1, UC Davis 69.3 → 72.1 possessions

+8.1

Sacramento St offense vs UC Davis defense

−2.4

UC Davis offense vs Sacramento St defense

+1.5

Projected total

155.5

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Sacramento St offense vs UC Davis defense

−2.4

UC Davis offense vs Sacramento St defense

−1.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Sacramento St by 0.2

0.2

UC Davis side ◂▸ Sacramento St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 155.4 against a projected 155.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Sacramento St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Sacramento St is the faster team (72.3, #19 of 365) and UC Davis the slower (71.3, #41). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

72.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

155.5

model

Projected team totals

77.7 / 77.9

UC Davis / Sacramento St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.3#99

UC Davis

71.1#14

Sacramento St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

Sacramento St averages 72.3 possessions per 40, UC Davis 71.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageSacramento St

Where Sacramento St struggles: shooting

Sacramento St shoots an effective 47.0% (#337); UC Davis allows 51.7% (#197). Expect about 49.1%, 2.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageUC Davis

Where UC Davis scores: shooting

UC Davis shoots an effective 51.8% (#157); Sacramento St allows 55.0% (#331). Expect about 53.5%, 2.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions.

ClashUC Davis

Style match: ball movement

UC Davis assists on 59.9% of its made baskets; Sacramento St allows assists on 57.9% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 60.9% — both habits push the same way.

GlassSacramento St

Sacramento St gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.8% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Sacramento St's offense.

ClashUC Davis

Style match: 3-point volume

UC Davis takes 43.5% of its shots from three; Sacramento St lets opponents take 43.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 45.4% — both habits push the same way.

UC Davis has the ball

OffenseSacramento St allowsvs D1 avg

51.8% #157

55.0% #331

+3.1 pt/100

17.9% #266

17.1% #139

-1.1 pt/100

25.2% #334

33.4% #306

-1.3 pt/100

40.5% #53

36.2% #216

+0.4 pt/100

75.3% #74

—

+0.3 pt/100

UC Davis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.4 pts/100

Sacramento St has the ball

OffenseUC Davis allowsvs D1 avg

47.0% #337

51.7% #197

-3.2 pt/100

14.1% #26

19.8% #30

-0.4 pt/100

25.2% #336

30.5% #182

-2.2 pt/100

41.2% #41

39.1% #290

+0.7 pt/100

78.1% #15

—

+0.5 pt/100

Sacramento St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

UC Davisoffense vsSacramento Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

UC Davis shoots

35.7

3.8

16.7

43.8

Sacramento St allows

42.1

5.7

8.2

44.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.5%#141	60.1%#230	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.5%#236	43.3%#256	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.0%#189	42.6%#322	38.0%
Three	34.4%#149	35.2%#257	33.7%

Sacramento Stoffense vsUC Davisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Sacramento St shoots

37.7

5.7

20.6

36.0

UC Davis allows

44.1

5.0

12.7

38.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.7%#306	58.4%#164	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.1%#301	41.2%#213	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.5%#276	33.6%#42	38.0%
Three	31.9%#284	33.8%#172	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

UC Davis

+0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#176 of 365

Off reb %

25.2%

#334

Def reb %

69.5%

#182

Turnover %

17.9%

#266

Forced TO %

19.8%

#30

FT rate

40.5%

#53

FT allowed

39.1%

#290

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security−0.8

Forcing turnovers+2.1

Foul shots drawn+1.4

Foul shots allowed−1.0

Sacramento St

+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#141 of 365

Off reb %

25.2%

#336

Def reb %

66.6%

#306

Turnover %

14.1%

#26

Forced TO %

17.1%

#139

FT rate

41.2%

#41

FT allowed

36.2%

#216

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding−0.9

Ball security+1.9

Forcing turnovers+0.3

Foul shots drawn+1.6

Foul shots allowed−0.3

Sacramento St has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.9 (#141 of 365) to UC Davis’s +0.1 (#176).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UC Davis2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted UC Davis's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Connor Sevilla	G	Jr	6'0"	31-31	31.1	13.3	1.7	0.8	1.4	53.4%	39.9%	5.4	90.3%	22.2%
2	Marcus Wilson	G	Fr	6'3"	33-33	26.4	12.5	3.2	3.9	2.2	48.1%	32.4%	3.1	78.5%	29.1%
20	Isaiah Chappell	F	So	6'9"	33-18	24.1	8.5	4.6	1.0	1.0	52.3%	35.6%	4.9	60.0%	20.6%
0	Brayden Fagbemi	G	Jr	6'0"	31-3	25.4	7.0	3.5	4.3	2.0	46.8%	27.3%	1.8	64.7%	19.7%
7	Niko Rocak	F	Sr	6'9"	32-32	24.2	9.4	5.2	1.8	1.8	59.7%	36.1%	2.6	68.1%	21.8%
36	Nils Cooper	G	Jr	6'6"	27-23	24.7	12.3	4.6	1.9	1.6	57.2%	23.8%	1.6	73.7%	26.2%
1	Carl Daughtery Jr.	G	Sr	6'3"	24-9	26.5	10.0	3.3	0.8	0.6	55.1%	42.0%	4.7	73.3%	19.4%
21	Omer Suljanovic	F	Fr	6'8"	32-9	14.7	5.6	3.0	0.4	1.2	46.6%	24.6%	1.8	68.3%	25.5%
5	Jalen Stokes	G	Fr	6'5"	27-7	13.9	4.7	2.5	0.8	0.9	48.9%	33.3%	0.8	87.8%	19.7%
10	Cyril Franklin Jr.	G	So	6'5"	19-0	7.1	1.3	0.5	0.7	0.5	52.2%	0.0%	0.3	33.3%	13.6%
8	Chase Rawlins	G	Fr	6'5"	19-0	5.6	1.6	0.4	0.7	0.5	54.8%	42.9%	0.4	77.8%	17.8%
14	Abdullah Amzil	F	Fr	6'7"	15-0	3.1	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	35.7%	20.0%	0.3	100.0%	10.3%
11	Ylan Esso-Essis	G	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Sacramento St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Sacramento St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
16	Prophet Johnson	G	Sr	6'3"	30-29	35.4	18.2	7.4	3.7	2.3	52.8%	39.2%	4.2	74.2%	28.5%
32	Mark Lavrenov	F	Fr	6'8"	31-21	26.0	9.9	7.0	0.5	1.0	46.9%	28.6%	1.1	82.4%	20.9%
4	Jahni Summers	G	Jr	6'6"	31-30	25.8	9.9	2.5	0.9	1.1	57.5%	42.2%	4.4	75.0%	20.1%
1	Mikey Williams	G	So	6'3"	21-21	35.0	17.1	3.0	4.5	2.9	40.1%	26.5%	4.0	83.0%	31.2%
23	Arman Madi	G	So	6'6"	30-5	21.9	7.0	2.9	1.5	0.8	50.9%	28.6%	2.6	73.2%	18.1%
8	Shaqir O'Neal	F	Sr	6'8"	31-31	19.4	5.3	3.2	0.5	0.7	47.9%	32.7%	1.6	77.0%	15.6%
5	Jayden Teat	G	So	6'2"	29-1	14.6	6.0	1.6	0.9	0.7	43.6%	34.7%	3.5	82.8%	27.1%
2	Taj Glover	G	Fr	6'3"	29-6	13.6	4.5	1.6	1.2	0.4	41.9%	23.1%	1.3	75.0%	19.9%
3	Romari Robinson	G	Fr	6'4"	24-1	11.0	1.8	1.4	0.5	0.5	40.2%	26.3%	0.8	60.0%	12.3%
0	Brandon Gardner	F	So	6'8"	16-4	15.6	4.1	2.8	0.4	0.4	46.5%	22.7%	1.4	86.7%	15.4%
9	Jeremiah Cherry	F	Sr	6'11"	6-6	31.2	15.5	8.2	1.7	3.7	48.7%	12.5%	1.3	69.2%	32.2%
34	Jeremiah Nyarko	F	Sr	6'9"	5-0	5.0	0.8	1.4	0.0	0.2	33.3%	—	0.0	—	15.0%
13	Isaiah Bronson	G	Fr	6'2"	6-0	3.5	0.7	0.3	0.2	0.2	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	12.0%
7	Zach Anderson	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UC Davis2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted UC Davis's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Connor Sevilla	G	Jr	6'0"	31-31	31.1	13.3	1.7	0.8	1.4	53.4%	39.9%	5.4	90.3%	22.2%
2	Marcus Wilson	G	Fr	6'3"	33-33	26.4	12.5	3.2	3.9	2.2	48.1%	32.4%	3.1	78.5%	29.1%
20	Isaiah Chappell	F	So	6'9"	33-18	24.1	8.5	4.6	1.0	1.0	52.3%	35.6%	4.9	60.0%	20.6%
0	Brayden Fagbemi	G	Jr	6'0"	31-3	25.4	7.0	3.5	4.3	2.0	46.8%	27.3%	1.8	64.7%	19.7%
7	Niko Rocak	F	Sr	6'9"	32-32	24.2	9.4	5.2	1.8	1.8	59.7%	36.1%	2.6	68.1%	21.8%
36	Nils Cooper	G	Jr	6'6"	27-23	24.7	12.3	4.6	1.9	1.6	57.2%	23.8%	1.6	73.7%	26.2%
1	Carl Daughtery Jr.	G	Sr	6'3"	24-9	26.5	10.0	3.3	0.8	0.6	55.1%	42.0%	4.7	73.3%	19.4%
21	Omer Suljanovic	F	Fr	6'8"	32-9	14.7	5.6	3.0	0.4	1.2	46.6%	24.6%	1.8	68.3%	25.5%
5	Jalen Stokes	G	Fr	6'5"	27-7	13.9	4.7	2.5	0.8	0.9	48.9%	33.3%	0.8	87.8%	19.7%
10	Cyril Franklin Jr.	G	So	6'5"	19-0	7.1	1.3	0.5	0.7	0.5	52.2%	0.0%	0.3	33.3%	13.6%
8	Chase Rawlins	G	Fr	6'5"	19-0	5.6	1.6	0.4	0.7	0.5	54.8%	42.9%	0.4	77.8%	17.8%
14	Abdullah Amzil	F	Fr	6'7"	15-0	3.1	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	35.7%	20.0%	0.3	100.0%	10.3%
11	Ylan Esso-Essis	G	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

UC Davis

Against the spread

Season

17-13-1

Home

9-5

Road

7-7-1

Last 10

5-4-1

avg cover +0.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 6 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

17-14

Home

7-7

Road

9-6

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −6.0

Under in the last gameOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	FullertonAdjEM #205	N	L 70–82	+1.0	L−11.0	155.0	U152	84.4	98.9	82.9
Mar 11	Santa BarbaraAdjEM #140	N	W 79–73	+4.5	W+10.5	139.5	O152	107.2	99.1	73.7
Mar 7	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	A	L 69–79 OT	+8.5	L−1.5	145.0	O148	92.6	106.0	74.6
Mar 5	Long Beach StAdjEM #267	A	W 76–70 OT	−2.0	W+4.0	150.0	U146	95.7	88.2	79.4
Feb 26	Hawai'iAdjEM #96	H	L 73–77	+2.0	L−2.0	147.0	O150	106.2	112.0	68.8
Feb 21	UC RiversideAdjEM #288	A	W 78–73	−3.0	W+2.0	150.0	O151	104.9	98.2	74.4
Feb 19	FullertonAdjEM #205	A	L 92–93	+1.0	P0.0	157.0	O185	138.1	139.6	66.6
Feb 14	Long Beach StAdjEM #267	H	W 71–54	−5.0	W+12.0	149.5	U125	100.8	76.6	70.5
Feb 12	UC San DiegoAdjEM #121	A	L 51–68	+6.0	L−11.0	150.5	U119	72.5	96.7	70.3
Feb 7	Cal PolyAdjEM #240	H	W 67–58	−6.0	W+3.0	169.0	U125	96.6	83.6	69.4

Sacramento St

Against the spread

Season

12-15-1

Home

8-3

Road

4-11-1

Last 10

3-6-1

avg cover −1.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 9 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

14-14

Home

7-4

Road

7-9

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −1.1

Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	IdahoAdjEM #156	N	L 45–68	+7.0	L−16.0	158.5	U113	65.0	98.2	69.3
Mar 2	Idaho StAdjEM #253	H	W 83–65	+1.0	W+19.0	160.5	U148	118.7	92.9	69.9
Feb 28	Montana StAdjEM #130	A	L 61–82	+7.0	L−14.0	158.5	U143	91.9	123.5	66.4
Feb 26	MontanaAdjEM #207	A	L 73–81	+8.0	P0.0	161.5	U154	101.4	112.5	72.0
Feb 21	IdahoAdjEM #156	H	L 80–86	+4.0	L−2.0	165.0	O166	109.2	117.4	73.3
Feb 19	E WashingtonAdjEM #189	H	L 94–102	+3.0	L−5.0	161.5	O196	129.2	140.2	72.8
Feb 14	N ArizonaAdjEM #329	A	L 74–79	+1.5	L−3.5	155.0	U153	104.2	111.2	71.0
Feb 12	N ColoradoAdjEM #146	A	L 79–95	+10.5	L−5.5	165.0	O174	99.4	119.6	79.4
Feb 7	Portland StAdjEM #145	H	L 73–74	+4.0	W+3.0	150.5	U147	106.9	108.3	68.3
Feb 2	Weber StAdjEM #203	H	W 104–90	−1.5	W+12.5	162.5	O194	133.3	115.3	78.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

UC DavisSacramento St

Efficiency

107.2

105.8

107.8

111.9

69.3

71.1

—

Shooting

51.8%

47.0%

51.9%

46.6%

34.4%

31.9%

75.3%

78.1%

40.5%

41.2%

Ball control & glass

17.9%

14.1%

19.8%

17.1%

25.2%

30.5%

33.4%

9.2%

10.3%

8.5%

Style

43.5%

35.6%

37.0%

40.4%

13.1%

16.8%

59.9%

48.9%

34.0%

29.5%

Roster

2.51

2.49

6'4.5"

6'5.3"

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

UC Davis

Returning minutes: 99.7%Returning production: 100.1%

ESPN hasn't posted UC Davis's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Sacramento St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Sacramento St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Fri, Nov 14	2025-26	Sacramento St 73 – 77 UC Davis

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.