CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceWilliams Arena at Minges Coliseum, Greenville, NC

Delaware St

Efficiency #358

2025-26: 8-23 · 3-13 conf

East Carolina

Efficiency #272

2025-26: 11-20 · 6-12 conf

Sat, Nov 14 · 4:00 PM ET

63.2

win 17%

Projected

74.1

win 83%

No line posted yet.

Model: ECU −10.9 · total 137.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: East Carolina 69.1, Delaware St 67.1 → 67.9 possessions

−0.9

East Carolina offense vs Delaware St defense

−1.5

Delaware St offense vs East Carolina defense

−8.5

Projected total

137.4

Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

East Carolina offense vs Delaware St defense

−1.5

Delaware St offense vs East Carolina defense

+8.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

East Carolina by 10.9

10.9

Delaware St side ◂▸ East Carolina side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 137.3 against a projected 137.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help East Carolina.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, East Carolina is the faster team (69.2, #135 of 365) and Delaware St the slower (66.1, #293). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

137.4

model

Projected team totals

63.2 / 74.1

Delaware St / East Carolina

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.1#279

Delaware St

69.1#110

East Carolina

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageDelaware St

Where Delaware St struggles: shooting

Delaware St shoots an effective 42.9% (#364); East Carolina allows 52.3% (#229). Expect about 47.0%, 4.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.1 points per 100 possessions.

ClashEast Carolina

Style match: 3-point volume

East Carolina rarely shoots threes (31.1% of its shots); Delaware St runs teams off the line (34.7% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 29.7% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageEast Carolina

Where East Carolina struggles: shooting

East Carolina shoots an effective 46.4% (#346); Delaware St allows 52.9% (#265). Expect about 49.3%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversEast Carolina

East Carolina turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.7% is worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions against East Carolina's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (East Carolina, Delaware St) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Delaware St at about 30.6% of its shots from three, East Carolina about 29.7%.

TurnoversDelaware St

Delaware St turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.2% is worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions against Delaware St's offense.

Delaware St has the ball

OffenseEast Carolina allowsvs D1 avg

42.9% #364

52.3% #229

-6.1 pt/100

19.9% #347

16.2% #206

-1.8 pt/100

27.7% #277

32.5% #282

-0.5 pt/100

34.1% #204

32.2% #110

-0.3 pt/100

68.9% #301

—

-0.3 pt/100

Delaware St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -9.0 pts/100

East Carolina has the ball

OffenseDelaware St allowsvs D1 avg

46.4% #346

52.9% #265

-2.8 pt/100

17.1% #212

19.5% #33

-2.4 pt/100

33.4% #79

32.0% #257

+1.7 pt/100

39.2% #75

40.5% #307

+0.7 pt/100

70.0% #274

—

-0.2 pt/100

East Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Delaware Stoffense vsEast Carolinadefense

Share of shots by zone

Delaware St shoots

37.2

3.8

29.8

29.2

East Carolina allows

37.5

4.9

18.6

39.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	50.7%#355	58.9%#185	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.0%#332	44.4%#279	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.5%#275	39.9%#238	38.0%
Three	28.4%#361	34.9%#245	33.7%

East Carolinaoffense vsDelaware Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

East Carolina shoots

39.5

5.2

24.9

30.4

Delaware St allows

45.6

3.7

15.7

35.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.3%#318	63.0%#325	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.8%#198	35.4%#71	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.1%#184	32.4%#19	38.0%
Three	29.3%#350	33.0%#123	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Delaware St

−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#306 of 365

Off reb %

27.7%

#277

Def reb %

68.0%

#257

Turnover %

19.9%

#347

Forced TO %

19.5%

#33

FT rate

34.1%

#204

FT allowed

40.5%

#307

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.9

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−2.1

Forcing turnovers+1.9

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed−1.4

East Carolina

+1.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#114 of 365

Off reb %

33.4%

#79

Def reb %

67.5%

#282

Turnover %

17.1%

#212

Forced TO %

16.2%

#206

FT rate

39.2%

#75

FT allowed

32.2%

#110

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.0

Defensive rebounding−0.6

Ball security−0.2

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed+0.8

East Carolina has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.7 (#114 of 365) to Delaware St’s −3.1 (#306).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Delaware St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Delaware St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ponce James	G	So	5'11"	27-27	32.8	13.6	2.9	3.4	2.1	44.4%	32.8%	4.5	84.7%	29.4%
2	Corey Perkins	G	Sr	6'2"	28-20	27.3	7.3	2.5	2.9	2.3	43.4%	32.5%	1.4	67.6%	21.8%
3	Miles Webb	F	Sr	6'8"	26-20	27.3	9.5	5.9	0.7	1.6	58.4%	40.9%	0.8	48.1%	21.8%
42	Bessanty Saragba	F	Sr	6'9"	25-17	22.1	3.2	3.2	0.2	0.7	45.2%	—	0.0	56.0%	11.1%
0	Rahmir Moore	G	Sr	6'3"	26-22	21.2	6.6	2.8	1.1	1.0	43.8%	31.3%	2.6	75.8%	21.4%
4	Zion Bethea	G	Sr	6'4"	29-14	15.3	5.4	2.2	0.6	1.0	40.0%	26.8%	2.8	66.7%	27.9%
37	Ademar Santos	F	Jr	6'8"	22-12	20.0	7.1	2.4	0.5	1.1	43.9%	30.3%	3.0	76.0%	25.8%
8	Jalen St Clair	G	Fr	6'1"	25-0	14.3	3.6	0.9	1.2	1.0	36.3%	17.9%	1.1	61.1%	22.9%
10	Cyril Obasogie	C	Jr	6'11"	24-11	14.8	2.8	4.0	0.3	0.5	43.5%	—	0.0	43.8%	15.4%
35	Muazibini Adamu	C	Jr	6'10"	25-6	12.9	1.9	3.2	0.3	0.8	42.9%	—	0.0	33.3%	14.0%
22	Dean Shepherd	G	Jr	6'3"	27-3	11.5	4.0	1.3	0.4	0.4	37.5%	21.7%	0.9	76.9%	22.3%
13	Kareem Watson	F	So	6'8"	19-2	11.1	3.8	1.9	0.3	1.0	39.8%	0.0%	0.1	70.0%	30.5%
11	Camian Shell	G	Sr	5'10"	7-1	24.0	8.0	1.9	1.9	2.4	50.0%	50.0%	1.1	66.7%	24.9%
5	John Clemmons	G	So	6'6"	23-0	7.0	2.7	1.2	0.0	0.5	30.2%	17.2%	1.3	77.8%	31.6%
—	Omar Stephen	F	Sr	—	7-0	2.1	1.3	0.3	0.0	0.0	50.0%	50.0%	0.3	66.7%	32.5%
—	Theodore Pendergrass III	G	So	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

East Carolina2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Corey Caulker	G	Jr	6'0"	31-26	30.7	7.9	2.4	3.8	1.6	41.1%	32.5%	4.1	77.5%	19.9%
2	Isaiah Mbeng	G	So	6'1"	31-7	23.1	4.5	2.2	2.6	1.8	42.1%	25.5%	3.2	65.4%	17.2%
15	Demitri Gardner	G	Sr	6'4"	18-14	27.9	11.1	2.3	0.9	1.6	53.2%	42.6%	3.4	86.5%	23.6%
23	Reid Cason	F	So	6'10"	31-12	15.2	3.9	3.3	0.3	0.9	56.7%	11.1%	0.3	67.5%	15.5%
4	Tybo Bailey	G	So	6'2"	20-15	23.4	7.1	2.3	0.8	1.2	39.1%	27.8%	4.0	72.4%	21.9%
33	Eli DeLaurier	F	So	6'10"	23-10	15.9	4.8	2.8	0.5	1.1	44.2%	13.3%	1.3	90.5%	22.1%
43	Luke Davis	F	Sr	6'8"	26-7	11.3	2.6	3.1	0.5	0.5	50.0%	16.7%	0.2	78.9%	14.6%
10	Paddy D'Arcy	G	Fr	6'6"	21-0	7.4	1.1	0.7	0.1	0.1	31.3%	20.7%	1.4	100.0%	13.2%
11	Vito Perkovic	F	Fr	6'10"	19-1	6.7	2.3	1.5	0.1	0.1	38.8%	26.1%	1.2	100.0%	23.6%
0	Jayshayne Woodard	G	Sr	6'7"	4-2	15.3	4.0	1.8	1.3	2.3	50.0%	20.0%	1.3	55.6%	21.9%
6	Ladontae Felton	G	Fr	6'2"	4-0	3.0	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	18.4%
3	Daithi Quinn	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
35	Grant Smith	F	Sr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Jake Baker	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
24	Trevion LaBeaux	G	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Delaware St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Delaware St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ponce James	G	So	5'11"	27-27	32.8	13.6	2.9	3.4	2.1	44.4%	32.8%	4.5	84.7%	29.4%
2	Corey Perkins	G	Sr	6'2"	28-20	27.3	7.3	2.5	2.9	2.3	43.4%	32.5%	1.4	67.6%	21.8%
3	Miles Webb	F	Sr	6'8"	26-20	27.3	9.5	5.9	0.7	1.6	58.4%	40.9%	0.8	48.1%	21.8%
42	Bessanty Saragba	F	Sr	6'9"	25-17	22.1	3.2	3.2	0.2	0.7	45.2%	—	0.0	56.0%	11.1%
0	Rahmir Moore	G	Sr	6'3"	26-22	21.2	6.6	2.8	1.1	1.0	43.8%	31.3%	2.6	75.8%	21.4%
4	Zion Bethea	G	Sr	6'4"	29-14	15.3	5.4	2.2	0.6	1.0	40.0%	26.8%	2.8	66.7%	27.9%
37	Ademar Santos	F	Jr	6'8"	22-12	20.0	7.1	2.4	0.5	1.1	43.9%	30.3%	3.0	76.0%	25.8%
8	Jalen St Clair	G	Fr	6'1"	25-0	14.3	3.6	0.9	1.2	1.0	36.3%	17.9%	1.1	61.1%	22.9%
10	Cyril Obasogie	C	Jr	6'11"	24-11	14.8	2.8	4.0	0.3	0.5	43.5%	—	0.0	43.8%	15.4%
35	Muazibini Adamu	C	Jr	6'10"	25-6	12.9	1.9	3.2	0.3	0.8	42.9%	—	0.0	33.3%	14.0%
22	Dean Shepherd	G	Jr	6'3"	27-3	11.5	4.0	1.3	0.4	0.4	37.5%	21.7%	0.9	76.9%	22.3%
13	Kareem Watson	F	So	6'8"	19-2	11.1	3.8	1.9	0.3	1.0	39.8%	0.0%	0.1	70.0%	30.5%
11	Camian Shell	G	Sr	5'10"	7-1	24.0	8.0	1.9	1.9	2.4	50.0%	50.0%	1.1	66.7%	24.9%
5	John Clemmons	G	So	6'6"	23-0	7.0	2.7	1.2	0.0	0.5	30.2%	17.2%	1.3	77.8%	31.6%
—	Omar Stephen	F	Sr	—	7-0	2.1	1.3	0.3	0.0	0.0	50.0%	50.0%	0.3	66.7%	32.5%
—	Theodore Pendergrass III	G	So	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Delaware St

Against the spread

Season

9-17-1

Home

4-5

Road

4-11-1

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −6.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

8-19

Home

3-6

Road

4-12

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −4.2

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 13	NC CentralAdjEM #346	N	L 53–59	+4.0	L−2.0	131.0	U112	93.9	104.5	56.4
Mar 11	Morgan StAdjEM #349	N	W 75–70 OT	+3.0	W+8.0	143.0	O145	99.8	93.1	75.2
Mar 5	MD EasternAdjEM #345	A	W 57–56	+5.5	W+6.5	125.0	U113	95.9	94.2	59.4
Mar 2	SC StateAdjEM #357	H	L 59–61	−3.0	L−5.0	134.5	U120	96.6	99.9	61.1
Feb 28	NC CentralAdjEM #346	H	L 60–74	+2.5	L−11.5	135.5	U134	97.5	120.3	61.5
Feb 21	Morgan StAdjEM #349	A	L 68–82	+5.5	L−8.5	145.0	O150	92.7	111.8	73.4
Feb 16	HowardAdjEM #160	H	L 59–91	+11.0	L−21.0	130.5	O150	82.1	126.6	71.9
Feb 14	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	A	L 58–75	+9.0	L−8.0	134.0	U133	92.1	119.1	63.0
Feb 9	NC CentralAdjEM #346	A	L 63–72	+8.0	L−1.0	134.5	O135	107.5	122.9	58.6
Feb 7	Coppin StAdjEM #364	A	L 47–65	−1.0	L−19.0	133.5	U112	70.7	97.8	66.4

East Carolina

Against the spread

Season

13-17

Home

6-10

Road

6-6

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +2.5

Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-14

Home

10-6

Road

5-7

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +8.0

Over 2 straightOver in 5 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	UABAdjEM #111	A	L 83–90	+10.0	W+3.0	150.5	O173	108.9	118.1	76.2
Mar 5	TulsaAdjEM #46	H	L 66–93	+8.5	L−18.5	156.0	O159	99.0	139.5	66.7
Mar 1	MemphisAdjEM #152	H	W 84–68	+4.0	W+20.0	153.5	U152	114.3	92.5	73.5
Feb 25	UTSAAdjEM #350	A	W 82–81	−4.5	L−3.5	153.5	O163	121.4	119.9	67.5
Feb 21	CharlotteAdjEM #193	A	L 56–68	+4.5	L−7.5	146.0	U124	85.8	104.2	65.3
Feb 18	Wichita StAdjEM #60	H	L 89–92 2OT	+8.0	W+5.0	149.5	O181	101.0	104.4	88.1
Feb 14	RiceAdjEM #255	A	W 85–75	+4.5	W+14.5	145.5	O160	127.9	112.8	66.5
Feb 11	UTSAAdjEM #350	H	W 88–72	−10.5	W+5.5	149.5	O160	123.9	101.3	71.0
Feb 7	TempleAdjEM #168	H	L 73–81	+2.5	L−5.5	139.5	O154	114.7	127.2	63.7
Feb 1	FAUAdjEM #122	A	W 76–75	+10.5	W+11.5	153.5	U151	113.3	111.8	67.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Delaware StEast Carolina

Efficiency

94.5

104.1

110.7

110.0

67.1

69.1

—

Shooting

42.9%

46.4%

43.1%

47.5%

28.4%

29.3%

68.9%

70.0%

34.1%

39.2%

Ball control & glass

19.9%

17.1%

19.5%

16.2%

27.7%

33.4%

32.0%

32.5%

9.7%

9.8%

11.0%

8.1%

Style

28.9%

31.1%

41.6%

43.4%

17.6%

12.0%

45.8%

47.3%

35.2%

27.1%

Roster

3.20

2.58

6'4.6"

6'4.1"

—

65.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Delaware St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Delaware St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

East Carolina

Returning minutes: 65.8%Returning production: 50.3%

Lost

Jordan Riley 36.6 mpg, 22.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Giovanni Emejuru 32.7 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Daithi Quinn no D1 minutes last season
Jake Baker no D1 minutes last season
Grant Smith no D1 minutes last season
Trevion LaBeaux no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 66% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.