CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceGlobal Credit Union Arena, Phoenix, AZ

UL Monroe

Efficiency #351

2025-26: 4-28 · 1-18 conf

Grand Canyon

Efficiency #65

2025-26: 20-12 · 13-8 conf

Sat, Nov 14 · 8:00 PM ET

65.7

win 5%

Projected

85.1

win 95%

No line posted yet.

Model: GCU −19.4 · total 150.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Grand Canyon 68.8, UL Monroe 70.2 → 70.6 possessions

+4.9

Grand Canyon offense vs UL Monroe defense

+6.5

UL Monroe offense vs Grand Canyon defense

−8.8

Projected total

150.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Grand Canyon offense vs UL Monroe defense

+6.5

UL Monroe offense vs Grand Canyon defense

+8.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Grand Canyon by 19.4

19.4

UL Monroe side ◂▸ Grand Canyon side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 150.8 against a projected 150.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Grand Canyon.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UL Monroe is the faster team (70.7, #65 of 365) and Grand Canyon the slower (69.0, #150). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.9

model

Projected team totals

65.7 / 85.1

UL Monroe / Grand Canyon

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.2#37

UL Monroe

68.8#139

Grand Canyon

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageUL Monroe

Where UL Monroe struggles: shooting

UL Monroe shoots an effective 47.8% (#316); Grand Canyon allows 47.4% (#28). Expect about 47.3%, 4.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.7 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageGrand Canyon

Where Grand Canyon scores: shooting

Grand Canyon shoots an effective 51.7% (#162); UL Monroe allows 57.1% (#358). Expect about 54.5%, 3.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.6 points per 100 possessions.

GlassUL Monroe

UL Monroe gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 24.3% is worth roughly -3.7 points per 100 possessions against UL Monroe's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (UL Monroe's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UL Monroe at about 40.6% of its shots from three, Grand Canyon about 40.8%.

GlassGrand Canyon

Grand Canyon owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.5% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for Grand Canyon's offense.

ClashUL Monroe

Style match: paint scoring

UL Monroe gets only 37.9% of its points in the paint; Grand Canyon protects the paint (38.0% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 40.0% — both habits push the same way.

UL Monroe has the ball

OffenseGrand Canyon allowsvs D1 avg

47.8% #316

47.4% #28

-5.7 pt/100

16.9% #199

17.3% #129

-0.5 pt/100

25.1% #338

25.3% #12

-3.7 pt/100

38.8% #85

39.0% #285

+0.5 pt/100

72.7% #178

—

+0.0 pt/100

UL Monroe net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -9.4 pts/100

Grand Canyon has the ball

OffenseUL Monroe allowsvs D1 avg

51.7% #162

57.1% #358

+4.6 pt/100

17.6% #246

15.7% #236

+0.2 pt/100

31.3% #150

35.4% #345

+1.9 pt/100

39.5% #67

27.7% #32

-0.3 pt/100

75.3% #72

—

+0.3 pt/100

Grand Canyon net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

UL Monroeoffense vsGrand Canyondefense

Share of shots by zone

UL Monroe shoots

39.9

6.0

13.6

40.5

Grand Canyon allows

36.3

5.9

19.8

38.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.5%#313	51.6%#12	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.3%#312	34.4%#50	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.1%#287	42.6%#320	38.0%
Three	32.2%#270	31.9%#60	33.7%

Grand Canyonoffense vsUL Monroedefense

Share of shots by zone

Grand Canyon shoots

41.1

4.2

16.2

38.5

UL Monroe allows

39.5

5.4

13.1

42.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#104	65.0%#351	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	30.4%#345	35.6%#74	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.7%#240	46.1%#356	38.0%
Three	31.8%#286	36.9%#343	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

UL Monroe

−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#237 of 365

Off reb %

25.1%

#338

Def reb %

64.6%

#345

Turnover %

16.9%

#199

Forced TO %

15.7%

#236

FT rate

38.8%

#85

FT allowed

27.7%

#32

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding−1.5

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers−0.7

Foul shots drawn+1.0

Foul shots allowed+1.9

Grand Canyon

+2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#96 of 365

Off reb %

31.3%

#150

Def reb %

74.7%

#12

Turnover %

17.6%

#246

Forced TO %

17.3%

#129

FT rate

39.5%

#67

FT allowed

39.0%

#285

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding+1.7

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers+0.4

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed−1.0

Grand Canyon has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.0 (#96 of 365) to UL Monroe’s −1.1 (#237).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UL Monroe2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted UL Monroe's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Krystian Lewis	G	So	6'3"	32-32	36.2	18.4	4.5	3.2	2.8	42.9%	31.5%	6.2	84.1%	32.1%
21	MJ Russell	G	Jr	6'3"	32-32	35.7	15.3	3.9	1.9	2.0	47.2%	31.3%	5.2	69.9%	27.3%
4	Lavell Brodnex	G	Sr	6'5"	26-24	31.6	14.7	8.5	2.2	1.7	56.9%	33.3%	2.3	71.5%	24.6%
5	Renars Sondors	F	So	6'9"	28-25	28.5	10.7	4.2	1.0	1.4	53.7%	34.4%	4.6	68.3%	21.4%
8	Alex Molofeev	G	Fr	6'5"	30-21	21.9	5.0	2.6	1.7	1.5	47.7%	26.4%	1.8	60.0%	16.8%
0	Dylan Diaz	G	Jr	6'2"	23-15	22.6	6.2	2.0	1.2	1.0	51.7%	37.6%	3.7	75.0%	16.5%
2	Micah Caster	G	So	6'2"	27-3	13.4	3.1	1.0	0.8	0.7	34.4%	32.4%	1.3	75.6%	18.1%
11	Wiggy Ball	G	Fr	6'3"	32-0	9.9	0.5	1.0	0.8	0.5	33.3%	28.6%	0.2	70.0%	5.9%
23	Ayomide Bamisile	F	So	6'7"	22-6	13.8	2.8	3.0	0.2	0.4	50.9%	0.0%	0.0	50.0%	12.9%
1	Przemek Hartman	F	Fr	6'9"	25-2	9.3	2.5	1.2	0.2	0.6	46.7%	19.0%	0.8	38.9%	20.1%
12	Alex Huguet Carrasco	G	Fr	6'7"	16-0	7.0	1.8	1.9	0.2	0.2	46.4%	26.7%	0.9	33.3%	16.7%
6	Ajay Tew	G	Jr	6'11"	13-0	1.5	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	31.8%	20.0%	0.4	80.0%	38.7%
32	Cam Campbell	G	So	6'3"	8-0	1.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
13	Brady Craig	F	Jr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	Brentay Noel	F	Jr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Grand Canyon2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
31	Nana Owusu-Anane	F	Sr	6'8"	32-32	32.5	9.3	8.5	1.8	1.2	52.1%	35.9%	3.7	72.6%	17.2%
2	Makaih Williams	G	Jr	6'2"	32-20	27.1	14.0	2.7	2.5	1.7	51.3%	33.5%	5.2	78.6%	30.3%
5	Brian Moore Jr.	G	Sr	6'2"	29-28	27.6	9.5	2.4	2.6	1.6	54.0%	40.8%	1.7	69.7%	20.7%
8	Dusty Stromer	G	Jr	6'6"	32-5	22.6	6.4	2.7	1.1	1.0	45.7%	33.3%	3.6	80.0%	19.1%
17	Efe Demirel	C	Fr	7'1"	32-28	22.5	8.5	5.3	0.3	1.3	63.0%	—	0.0	75.0%	20.0%
11	Caleb Shaw	G	Jr	6'6"	21-11	20.9	7.8	3.8	1.4	1.3	58.8%	37.0%	3.5	64.7%	21.7%
32	Wilhelm Breidenbach	F	Sr	6'10"	29-4	12.4	2.7	2.3	0.7	0.6	41.3%	13.3%	1.0	80.6%	15.3%
14	Dennis Evans	C	Fr	7'2"	24-0	8.8	2.8	2.0	0.0	0.4	66.7%	—	0.0	75.0%	15.8%
22	Kaleb Smith	F	Jr	6'10"	21-0	8.4	1.4	1.2	0.3	0.4	21.1%	10.5%	0.9	77.8%	17.6%
9	Evan Boisdur	G	Fr	6'1"	13-0	5.6	1.3	0.4	0.3	0.3	33.3%	16.7%	0.9	75.0%	21.2%
23	Cole Pepe	G	Fr	6'4"	6-0	1.7	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	17.1%
3	Braylon Johnson	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Jack Sawyer	F	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Luke Shaw	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UL Monroe2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted UL Monroe's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Krystian Lewis	G	So	6'3"	32-32	36.2	18.4	4.5	3.2	2.8	42.9%	31.5%	6.2	84.1%	32.1%
21	MJ Russell	G	Jr	6'3"	32-32	35.7	15.3	3.9	1.9	2.0	47.2%	31.3%	5.2	69.9%	27.3%
4	Lavell Brodnex	G	Sr	6'5"	26-24	31.6	14.7	8.5	2.2	1.7	56.9%	33.3%	2.3	71.5%	24.6%
5	Renars Sondors	F	So	6'9"	28-25	28.5	10.7	4.2	1.0	1.4	53.7%	34.4%	4.6	68.3%	21.4%
8	Alex Molofeev	G	Fr	6'5"	30-21	21.9	5.0	2.6	1.7	1.5	47.7%	26.4%	1.8	60.0%	16.8%
0	Dylan Diaz	G	Jr	6'2"	23-15	22.6	6.2	2.0	1.2	1.0	51.7%	37.6%	3.7	75.0%	16.5%
2	Micah Caster	G	So	6'2"	27-3	13.4	3.1	1.0	0.8	0.7	34.4%	32.4%	1.3	75.6%	18.1%
11	Wiggy Ball	G	Fr	6'3"	32-0	9.9	0.5	1.0	0.8	0.5	33.3%	28.6%	0.2	70.0%	5.9%
23	Ayomide Bamisile	F	So	6'7"	22-6	13.8	2.8	3.0	0.2	0.4	50.9%	0.0%	0.0	50.0%	12.9%
1	Przemek Hartman	F	Fr	6'9"	25-2	9.3	2.5	1.2	0.2	0.6	46.7%	19.0%	0.8	38.9%	20.1%
12	Alex Huguet Carrasco	G	Fr	6'7"	16-0	7.0	1.8	1.9	0.2	0.2	46.4%	26.7%	0.9	33.3%	16.7%
6	Ajay Tew	G	Jr	6'11"	13-0	1.5	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	31.8%	20.0%	0.4	80.0%	38.7%
32	Cam Campbell	G	So	6'3"	8-0	1.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
13	Brady Craig	F	Jr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	Brentay Noel	F	Jr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

UL Monroe

Against the spread

Season

17-12

Home

6-5

Road

9-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.5

Covered 2 straightCovered 7 of 10 as an underdogCovered 6 of 8 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

20-9

Home

7-4

Road

11-5

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +8.4

Over in the last gameOver in 6 of 10 as an underdogOver in 5 of 8 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 3	Old DominionAdjEM #242	N	L 80–87	+10.5	W+3.5	157.5	O167	114.6	124.6	69.8
Feb 27	TroyAdjEM #136	A	L 65–80	+18.0	W+3.0	153.5	U145	104.3	128.4	62.3
Feb 25	South AlabamaAdjEM #188	A	L 54–89	+14.5	L−20.5	153.5	U143	80.3	132.3	67.3
Feb 21	Arkansas StAdjEM #132	H	L 94–102	+15.5	W+7.5	164.0	O196	120.9	131.2	77.8
Feb 18	TroyAdjEM #136	H	L 76–77	+17.0	W+16.0	155.5	U153	107.6	109.0	70.6
Feb 14	Texas StAdjEM #249	A	L 84–95	+14.0	W+3.0	149.0	O179	131.0	148.1	64.1
Feb 11	Arkansas StAdjEM #132	A	L 70–103	+21.0	L−12.0	163.0	O173	94.6	139.2	74.0
Feb 7	Ball StateAdjEM #295	H	L 68–73	+4.5	L−0.5	143.5	U141	98.1	105.3	69.3
Feb 4	Old DominionAdjEM #242	A	W 85–79	+14.5	W+20.5	154.0	O164	115.0	106.8	73.9
Feb 1	CoastalAdjEM #241	H	L 79–83	+9.0	W+5.0	145.0	O162	118.4	124.4	66.7

Grand Canyon

Against the spread

Season

17-15

Home

9-8

Road

7-4

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

14-18

Home

7-10

Road

5-6

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +3.1

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	NevadaAdjEM #71	N	L 80–84	−3.5	L−7.5	137.5	O164	113.6	119.3	70.4
Mar 7	Fresno StAdjEM #169	H	W 85–60	−12.5	W+12.5	150.0	U145	117.0	82.6	72.7
Mar 3	Air ForceAdjEM #360	A	W 86–60	−19.0	W+7.0	143.0	O146	125.3	87.4	68.7
Feb 28	Utah StateAdjEM #24	A	L 69–74	+9.5	W+4.5	148.0	U143	108.5	116.4	63.6
Feb 25	UNLVAdjEM #124	H	W 80–67	−7.5	W+5.5	150.5	U147	115.1	96.4	69.5
Feb 21	WyomingAdjEM #98	H	L 65–70	−8.5	L−13.5	144.5	U135	96.3	103.7	67.5
Feb 17	San Diego StAdjEM #53	A	W 73–63	+8.0	W+18.0	139.0	U136	102.5	88.4	71.2
Feb 14	San José StAdjEM #282	A	W 94–79	−11.5	W+3.5	139.0	O173	144.7	121.6	65.0
Feb 11	New MexicoAdjEM #42	H	L 64–70	−1.5	L−7.5	149.0	U134	93.4	102.1	68.5
Feb 7	UNLVAdjEM #124	A	L 78–80	−3.5	L−5.5	149.0	O158	108.6	111.4	71.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

UL MonroeGrand Canyon

Efficiency

103.0

109.0

117.2

101.5

70.2

68.8

—

Shooting

47.8%

51.7%

47.4%

54.2%

32.2%

31.8%

72.7%

75.3%

38.8%

39.5%

Ball control & glass

16.9%

17.6%

15.7%

17.3%

25.1%

31.3%

35.4%

25.3%

10.2%

9.3%

11.7%

7.9%

Style

41.9%

38.9%

37.9%

43.2%

11.4%

13.9%

50.2%

49.6%

23.7%

29.1%

Roster

2.31

3.03

6'4.6"

6'6.7"

—

84.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

UL Monroe

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted UL Monroe's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Grand Canyon

Returning minutes: 84.3%Returning production: 79.1%

Lost

Jaden Henley 31.5 mpg, 17.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Luke Shaw no D1 minutes last season
Jack Sawyer no D1 minutes last season
Braylon Johnson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.