CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceSkip Chappelle Court in Memorial Gymnasium, Orono, ME

Drexel

Efficiency #214

2025-26: 17-16 · 11-9 conf

Maine

Efficiency #335

2025-26: 8-24 · 6-11 conf

Sat, Nov 14 · 1:00 PM ET

65.8

win 57%

Projected

63.7

win 43%

No line posted yet.

Model: DREX −2.1 · total 129.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Maine 66.6, Drexel 66.3 → 64.5 possessions

−8.2

Maine offense vs Drexel defense

−8.2

Drexel offense vs Maine defense

−2.4

Projected total

129.5

Axis starts at 120 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Maine offense vs Drexel defense

−8.2

Drexel offense vs Maine defense

+2.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.7

Drexel by 2.1

2.1

Drexel side ◂▸ Maine side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 129.4 against a projected 129.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Maine.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Drexel is the faster team (65.2, #326 of 365) and Maine the slower (64.9, #332). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

64.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

129.5

model

Projected team totals

65.8 / 63.7

Drexel / Maine

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.3#331

Drexel

66.6#315

Maine

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Maine averages 64.9 possessions per 40, Drexel 65.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageMaine

Where Maine struggles: shooting

Maine shoots an effective 49.6% (#263); Drexel allows 47.1% (#22). Expect about 48.1%, 3.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.5 points per 100 possessions.

GlassMaine

Maine gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 23.2% is worth roughly -4.4 points per 100 possessions against Maine's offense.

AdvantageDrexel

Where Drexel struggles: ball control

Drexel turns it over on 19.0% of possessions (#321); Maine forces turnovers on 19.4% of opponent possessions (#36). Expect about 19.7%, 3.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseMaine

Maine's ball-hawking

Maine ranks #25 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.7% of Drexel's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Maine's defense, Drexel's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Drexel at about 38.2% of its shots from three, Maine about 34.0%.

Drexel has the ball

OffenseMaine allowsvs D1 avg

50.7% #204

50.6% #136

-1.0 pt/100

19.0% #321

19.4% #36

-3.6 pt/100

31.2% #156

34.3% #322

+1.5 pt/100

31.6% #265

33.9% #148

-0.3 pt/100

66.5% #348

—

-0.5 pt/100

Drexel net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.9 pts/100

Maine has the ball

OffenseDrexel allowsvs D1 avg

49.6% #263

47.1% #22

-4.5 pt/100

19.1% #325

16.4% #195

-1.3 pt/100

19.7% #364

31.0% #202

-4.4 pt/100

38.4% #93

35.4% #192

+0.2 pt/100

64.3% #363

—

-0.7 pt/100

Maine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -10.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Drexeloffense vsMainedefense

Share of shots by zone

Drexel shoots

36.2

7.8

15.9

40.2

Maine allows

41.6

5.6

16.3

36.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.1%#268	60.5%#251	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.7%#181	47.1%#334	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.9%#315	42.5%#318	38.0%
Three	35.5%#90	29.3%#4	33.7%

Maineoffense vsDrexeldefense

Share of shots by zone

Maine shoots

41.9

3.7

17.1

37.3

Drexel allows

37.9

8.2

19.7

34.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.2%#263	53.4%#28	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.1%#101	37.2%#119	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.9%#148	39.2%#210	38.0%
Three	31.2%#314	30.3%#15	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Drexel

−2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#286 of 365

Off reb %

31.2%

#156

Def reb %

69.0%

#202

Turnover %

19.0%

#321

Forced TO %

16.4%

#195

FT rate

31.6%

#265

FT allowed

35.4%

#192

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security−1.5

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed0.0

Maine

−3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#309 of 365

Off reb %

19.7%

#364

Def reb %

65.7%

#322

Turnover %

19.1%

#325

Forced TO %

19.4%

#36

FT rate

38.4%

#93

FT allowed

33.9%

#148

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−3.4

Defensive rebounding−1.2

Ball security−1.6

Forcing turnovers+1.8

Foul shots drawn+0.9

Foul shots allowed+0.3

Drexel has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.5 (#286 of 365) to Maine’s −3.2 (#309).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Drexel2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Shane Blakeney	G	Jr	6'5"	33-33	33.7	14.2	5.1	2.5	2.2	49.5%	35.9%	5.6	67.1%	28.9%
1	Victor Panov	F	Sr	6'7"	31-25	28.7	9.9	4.9	1.6	1.3	55.1%	37.3%	4.8	69.0%	21.2%
7	Eli Beard	G	Sr	5'11"	33-30	26.5	9.0	2.2	2.1	1.3	55.8%	41.3%	4.7	81.5%	20.7%
5	Josh Reed	G	So	6'2"	33-1	18.9	7.9	3.2	1.2	1.1	44.4%	25.0%	1.0	59.0%	30.7%
13	Garfield Turner	F	Sr	6'8"	30-4	19.6	7.1	5.1	1.1	1.0	62.3%	—	0.0	56.5%	21.3%
22	Villiam Garcia Adsten	G	Jr	6'8"	32-10	17.6	3.5	3.8	1.3	1.3	38.8%	29.8%	1.5	54.8%	19.4%
11	Martin de LaPorterie	F	Jr	7'1"	33-29	13.0	3.0	3.1	0.3	0.9	51.2%	33.3%	0.5	70.0%	17.5%
23	Dillon Tingler	G	So	6'7"	29-0	9.9	3.6	1.9	0.4	0.7	52.0%	37.8%	1.3	92.9%	22.5%
33	Ralph Akuta	F	So	7'1"	29-0	4.9	1.6	0.8	0.1	0.4	58.8%	—	0.0	33.3%	22.3%
25	Max Davis	G	Sr	6'4"	4-0	3.0	2.5	0.5	0.5	0.3	100.0%	66.7%	0.8	—	26.8%
24	Ignacio Campoy Galvez	F	Fr	6'7"	1-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
6	Clem Edomwonyin	F	So	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
2	Moses Hipps	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Maine2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Maine's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	TJ Biel	F	Sr	6'9"	30-30	32.5	11.7	4.2	1.3	1.0	50.5%	33.0%	3.6	68.7%	23.1%
3	Ryan Mabrey	G	Sr	6'5"	30-29	27.9	7.4	3.0	1.5	1.2	49.3%	34.3%	4.7	66.7%	18.9%
0	Logan Carey	G	Jr	6'3"	32-27	25.4	9.7	2.8	2.4	1.8	54.0%	35.6%	1.8	64.8%	25.0%
11	Ace Flagg	F	Fr	6'7"	32-11	24.2	6.7	4.1	1.5	1.6	50.9%	35.6%	1.8	69.7%	19.6%
24	Mekhi Gray	G	Sr	6'4"	28-23	26.5	9.7	2.9	1.9	1.9	53.8%	30.2%	2.3	69.2%	23.8%
4	Caleb Crawford	G	So	6'0"	32-6	19.9	4.4	1.1	1.8	1.3	42.0%	26.3%	1.8	65.9%	18.6%
25	Keelan Steele	F	Sr	6'10"	24-23	20.6	8.1	4.5	0.9	2.0	60.5%	0.0%	0.1	56.3%	26.0%
14	Amare Allen	F	So	6'7"	24-5	13.8	3.8	1.6	0.3	0.8	42.9%	28.1%	1.3	55.9%	21.9%
6	Yanis Bamba	F	Jr	6'6"	25-2	11.5	2.9	1.2	0.5	0.4	39.5%	18.8%	1.3	60.0%	20.4%
64	Bashir N'Galang	G	Fr	6'3"	21-4	13.0	4.0	1.4	1.2	1.3	44.6%	18.2%	0.5	57.9%	24.4%
5	Isaac Bonilla	G	Jr	6'1"	22-0	8.8	2.2	1.0	0.3	0.5	60.0%	40.0%	1.6	0.0%	16.1%
12	Emmitt Byther	F	Fr	6'6"	11-0	3.0	0.2	0.5	0.2	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	1.7%
10	Killian Gribben	F	Sr	6'10"	1-0	3.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	50.0%	—	0.0	—	58.1%
8	Darius Lopes	G	So	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	John Shea	F	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Joshua Ojuri	F	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Drexel2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Shane Blakeney	G	Jr	6'5"	33-33	33.7	14.2	5.1	2.5	2.2	49.5%	35.9%	5.6	67.1%	28.9%
1	Victor Panov	F	Sr	6'7"	31-25	28.7	9.9	4.9	1.6	1.3	55.1%	37.3%	4.8	69.0%	21.2%
7	Eli Beard	G	Sr	5'11"	33-30	26.5	9.0	2.2	2.1	1.3	55.8%	41.3%	4.7	81.5%	20.7%
5	Josh Reed	G	So	6'2"	33-1	18.9	7.9	3.2	1.2	1.1	44.4%	25.0%	1.0	59.0%	30.7%
13	Garfield Turner	F	Sr	6'8"	30-4	19.6	7.1	5.1	1.1	1.0	62.3%	—	0.0	56.5%	21.3%
22	Villiam Garcia Adsten	G	Jr	6'8"	32-10	17.6	3.5	3.8	1.3	1.3	38.8%	29.8%	1.5	54.8%	19.4%
11	Martin de LaPorterie	F	Jr	7'1"	33-29	13.0	3.0	3.1	0.3	0.9	51.2%	33.3%	0.5	70.0%	17.5%
23	Dillon Tingler	G	So	6'7"	29-0	9.9	3.6	1.9	0.4	0.7	52.0%	37.8%	1.3	92.9%	22.5%
33	Ralph Akuta	F	So	7'1"	29-0	4.9	1.6	0.8	0.1	0.4	58.8%	—	0.0	33.3%	22.3%
25	Max Davis	G	Sr	6'4"	4-0	3.0	2.5	0.5	0.5	0.3	100.0%	66.7%	0.8	—	26.8%
24	Ignacio Campoy Galvez	F	Fr	6'7"	1-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
6	Clem Edomwonyin	F	So	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
2	Moses Hipps	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Drexel

Against the spread

Season

16-13-3

Home

10-4-1

Road

5-7-2

Last 10

5-4-1

avg cover −1.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

13-18-1

Home

6-8-1

Road

6-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +1.1

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	MonmouthAdjEM #173	N	L 57–65	+4.0	L−4.0	137.5	U122	88.2	100.6	64.6
Mar 7	NortheasternAdjEM #274	N	W 84–77	−5.0	W+2.0	140.5	O161	122.2	112.0	68.8
Mar 3	HofstraAdjEM #69	A	L 51–62	+8.5	L−2.5	133.0	U113	89.9	109.3	56.7
Feb 26	CampbellAdjEM #208	H	W 65–60	−1.0	W+4.0	141.5	U125	102.0	94.2	63.7
Feb 22	TowsonAdjEM #149	H	W 68–62	+2.5	W+8.5	131.0	U130	102.9	93.9	66.1
Feb 19	NortheasternAdjEM #274	A	W 70–61	+1.0	W+10.0	145.0	U131	104.4	91.0	67.0
Feb 16	Stony BrookAdjEM #232	A	L 69–72	+3.0	P0.0	136.5	O141	105.5	110.1	65.4
Feb 12	MonmouthAdjEM #173	H	L 73–93	−1.0	L−21.0	134.0	O166	101.8	129.7	71.7
Feb 7	ElonAdjEM #228	A	W 82–77	+5.0	W+10.0	138.0	O159	121.3	113.9	67.6
Feb 5	CampbellAdjEM #208	A	L 60–81	+4.0	L−17.0	141.5	U141	86.9	117.3	69.0

Maine

Against the spread

Season

13-17-1

Home

3-8

Road

8-9-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −1.1

Covered the last gameCovered 4 of 10 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-18-2

Home

3-8

Road

8-8-2

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.6

Under 2 straightOver in 5 of 10 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	NJITAdjEM #331	A	L 58–60	+3.5	W+1.5	133.5	U118	89.5	92.5	64.8
Mar 3	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	H	L 56–67	+1.0	L−10.0	140.5	U123	85.2	102.0	65.7
Feb 28	BinghamtonAdjEM #354	A	L 67–74	+1.0	L−6.0	134.0	O141	101.8	112.4	65.8
Feb 26	UAlbanyAdjEM #306	A	W 70–59	+5.5	W+16.5	131.5	U129	116.3	98.0	60.2
Feb 21	New HampshireAdjEM #340	A	W 61–58	+3.5	W+6.5	136.0	U119	93.8	89.2	65.0
Feb 14	NJITAdjEM #331	H	L 58–67	+2.0	L−7.0	137.0	U125	85.7	98.9	67.7
Feb 12	UMBCAdjEM #147	H	L 62–78	+3.5	L−12.5	135.5	O140	91.6	115.3	67.7
Feb 7	BryantAdjEM #347	A	L 67–73	+2.5	L−3.5	128.0	O140	98.8	107.7	67.8
Feb 5	VermontAdjEM #199	H	W 76–70	+7.5	W+13.5	130.0	O146	120.7	111.2	63.0
Jan 31	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	A	L 77–91	+4.5	L−9.5	137.5	O168	108.3	128.0	71.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

DrexelMaine

Efficiency

104.5

98.0

106.3

108.8

66.3

66.6

—

Shooting

50.7%

49.6%

49.0%

51.2%

35.5%

31.2%

66.5%

64.3%

31.6%

38.4%

Ball control & glass

19.0%

19.1%

16.4%

19.4%

31.2%

19.7%

31.0%

34.3%

11.1%

9.5%

9.3%

9.0%

Style

40.0%

37.0%

42.7%

45.1%

11.0%

13.6%

53.6%

54.4%

33.8%

32.9%

Roster

3.24

2.99

6'5.6"

6'5.3"

83.7%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Drexel

Returning minutes: 83.7%Returning production: 85.1%

Lost

Kevon Vanderhorst 29.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Iona
Horace Simmons Jr. 2.7 mpg, 0.7 ppg · transferred to Rider

Added

Moses Hipps no D1 minutes last season
Clem Edomwonyin no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Maine

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Maine's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sun, Dec 21	2025-26	Maine 56 – 74 Drexel

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.