CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceKnights Hall, Louisville, KY

N Illinois

Efficiency #341

2025-26: 9-21 · 4-14 conf

Bellarmine

Efficiency #281

2025-26: 13-19 · 8-12 conf

Sat, Nov 14 · TBD

72.2

win 26%

Projected

79.6

win 74%

No line posted yet.

Model: BELL −7.4 · total 151.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Bellarmine 66.5, N Illinois 68.5 → 66.7 possessions

−3.6

Bellarmine offense vs N Illinois defense

+5.4

N Illinois offense vs Bellarmine defense

+1.8

Projected total

151.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Bellarmine offense vs N Illinois defense

+5.4

N Illinois offense vs Bellarmine defense

−1.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Bellarmine by 7.4

7.4

N Illinois side ◂▸ Bellarmine side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 151.8 against a projected 151.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Bellarmine.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, N Illinois is the faster team (69.0, #149 of 365) and Bellarmine the slower (66.2, #287). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

151.9

model

Projected team totals

72.2 / 79.6

N Illinois / Bellarmine

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.5#172

N Illinois

66.5#319

Bellarmine

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageBellarmine

Where Bellarmine scores: shooting

Bellarmine shoots an effective 59.4% (#3); N Illinois allows 55.6% (#342). Expect about 58.2%, 6.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +9.9 points per 100 possessions.

GlassBellarmine

Bellarmine gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 24.6% is worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions against Bellarmine's offense.

ClashN Illinois

Style match: 3-point volume

N Illinois takes 45.0% of its shots from three; Bellarmine lets opponents take 50.5% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 51.0% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageN Illinois

Where N Illinois scores: shooting

N Illinois shoots an effective 47.6% (#324); Bellarmine allows 59.4% (#365). Expect about 53.3%, 2.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversN Illinois

N Illinois turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.5% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against N Illinois's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Bellarmine, N Illinois, Bellarmine's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect N Illinois at about 51.0% of its shots from three, Bellarmine about 39.7%.

N Illinois has the ball

OffenseBellarmine allowsvs D1 avg

47.6% #324

59.4% #365

+2.8 pt/100

21.8% #360

15.0% #287

-2.2 pt/100

30.3% #187

34.2% #320

+1.1 pt/100

38.3% #95

34.3% #157

+0.1 pt/100

65.7% #356

—

-0.6 pt/100

N Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.3 pts/100

Bellarmine has the ball

OffenseN Illinois allowsvs D1 avg

59.4% #3

55.6% #342

+9.9 pt/100

15.5% #104

16.3% #205

+1.3 pt/100

22.4% #354

30.0% #161

-3.5 pt/100

35.0% #178

38.3% #267

+0.2 pt/100

78.8% #7

—

+0.6 pt/100

Bellarmine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

N Illinoisoffense vsBellarminedefense

Share of shots by zone

N Illinois shoots

41.7

3.7

8.9

45.7

Bellarmine allows

33.1

6.3

10.1

50.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	51.9%#350	67.7%#363	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.3%#339	35.6%#79	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	32.8%#333	39.5%#221	38.0%
Three	30.9%#323	40.4%#364	33.7%

Bellarmineoffense vsN Illinoisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Bellarmine shoots

47.4

5.9

40.7

N Illinois allows

44.0

4.6

13.3

38.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.7%#9	62.9%#323	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#137	33.9%#42	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.8%#234	40.6%#259	38.0%
Three	38.1%#17	36.3%#315	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

N Illinois

−3.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#315 of 365

Off reb %

30.3%

#187

Def reb %

70.0%

#161

Turnover %

21.8%

#360

Forced TO %

16.3%

#205

FT rate

38.3%

#95

FT allowed

38.3%

#267

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security−3.4

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn+0.8

Foul shots allowed−0.8

Bellarmine

−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#324 of 365

Off reb %

22.4%

#354

Def reb %

65.8%

#320

Turnover %

15.5%

#104

Forced TO %

15.0%

#287

FT rate

35.0%

#178

FT allowed

34.3%

#157

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.6

Defensive rebounding−1.2

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+0.3

N Illinois has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.5 (#315 of 365) to Bellarmine’s −3.7 (#324).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

N Illinois2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Makhai Valentine	G	So	6'3"	29-29	30.7	13.3	5.3	1.0	1.2	53.1%	35.8%	6.7	81.3%	24.0%
0	Gianni Cobb	G	So	6'0"	30-19	29.0	9.8	2.7	3.9	2.4	46.2%	26.8%	2.4	59.8%	24.3%
6	Taj Walters	G	Fr	6'5"	29-23	27.1	8.5	5.4	0.6	1.3	52.4%	38.3%	2.8	78.3%	18.8%
96	Gustav Winther	F	Fr	6'10"	30-21	21.2	8.1	4.2	0.9	1.4	64.5%	42.9%	0.2	54.7%	21.2%
3	Daemar Kelly	G	Jr	6'5"	29-15	20.6	5.6	3.1	1.2	1.2	35.2%	25.6%	2.8	76.7%	21.9%
7	Hassan Washington	F	Jr	6'8"	29-14	16.6	4.7	3.2	0.6	1.9	59.9%	43.8%	0.6	44.4%	20.6%
10	Jao Ituka	G	Jr	6'1"	15-0	14.1	6.9	2.5	0.9	0.3	48.9%	34.4%	4.1	81.0%	27.4%
2	Carlos Coronado	G	Fr	6'3"	20-1	10.3	3.9	0.8	0.6	1.0	41.2%	20.8%	1.2	68.9%	26.2%
8	Ladji Kante	F	Fr	6'7"	17-0	9.2	2.8	1.2	0.4	0.6	43.8%	20.0%	0.9	65.0%	21.2%
23	Jaylen Wharton	F	Jr	6'9"	18-0	7.0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.3	45.2%	—	0.0	42.1%	20.2%
11	Isaiah Washington	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	8.9	2.7	1.3	0.5	0.5	38.9%	11.1%	0.8	64.3%	22.3%
16	Isaiah Stewart	G	Fr	6'6"	13-0	5.5	1.2	0.9	0.3	0.2	60.0%	40.0%	0.4	66.7%	11.0%
4	JJ Taylor	F	Jr	6'8"	3-2	21.0	8.7	2.7	0.3	3.0	41.7%	11.1%	3.0	68.8%	29.3%
21	Max Laskey	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	2.5	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	13.9%
15	Lataevyon Taylor	G	So	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Bellarmine2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Kenyon Goodin	G	So	6'3"	31-31	32.6	11.6	2.8	2.0	0.7	62.7%	41.8%	5.1	87.3%	17.5%
11	Brian Waddell	F	Sr	6'7"	32-31	31.2	15.0	4.3	2.1	1.6	67.5%	41.9%	1.9	79.8%	23.9%
32	Jack Karasinski	F	Sr	6'7"	30-30	29.8	21.7	4.7	1.2	1.4	65.5%	41.5%	5.7	80.7%	34.5%
23	Sam Donald	F	Fr	6'8"	30-29	26.6	6.5	3.3	2.0	0.8	63.9%	42.1%	2.5	76.5%	13.0%
2	Tyler Doyle	G	So	6'5"	26-23	27.8	10.0	2.8	3.8	1.6	56.0%	33.3%	1.6	76.1%	21.9%
7	Donovan Hunter	F	Jr	6'8"	29-1	13.0	4.1	1.9	0.7	0.6	46.3%	32.1%	2.7	60.0%	22.7%
5	Myles Watkins	G	Sr	6'3"	30-2	10.8	3.6	1.0	1.2	0.8	53.0%	21.4%	0.5	90.9%	21.9%
22	Darrius Bolden	G	Sr	6'1"	28-6	10.9	1.2	0.9	1.6	0.5	34.8%	27.3%	0.4	68.8%	10.5%
44	Jacob Wassler	C	Fr	6'11"	22-0	12.7	3.5	2.5	0.4	0.8	54.4%	35.7%	1.3	100.0%	17.6%
10	Grant Whitaker	G	So	6'4"	26-3	8.2	1.7	1.1	0.8	0.6	50.0%	20.0%	0.4	72.7%	16.0%
0	Tommy Clark	G	Fr	6'3"	12-0	4.3	1.9	0.3	0.3	0.0	58.3%	35.7%	1.2	100.0%	21.4%
4	Grant Neal	G	Fr	6'3"	11-0	4.1	3.0	0.5	0.1	0.1	52.5%	25.0%	0.4	75.0%	36.4%
14	Dominique Murphy	F	Fr	6'5"	4-0	6.0	2.0	1.5	0.3	0.8	50.0%	—	0.0	—	25.7%
15	Luke Anderson	F	So	6'8"	1-0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	Ant McAfee	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

N Illinois2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Makhai Valentine	G	So	6'3"	29-29	30.7	13.3	5.3	1.0	1.2	53.1%	35.8%	6.7	81.3%	24.0%
0	Gianni Cobb	G	So	6'0"	30-19	29.0	9.8	2.7	3.9	2.4	46.2%	26.8%	2.4	59.8%	24.3%
6	Taj Walters	G	Fr	6'5"	29-23	27.1	8.5	5.4	0.6	1.3	52.4%	38.3%	2.8	78.3%	18.8%
96	Gustav Winther	F	Fr	6'10"	30-21	21.2	8.1	4.2	0.9	1.4	64.5%	42.9%	0.2	54.7%	21.2%
3	Daemar Kelly	G	Jr	6'5"	29-15	20.6	5.6	3.1	1.2	1.2	35.2%	25.6%	2.8	76.7%	21.9%
7	Hassan Washington	F	Jr	6'8"	29-14	16.6	4.7	3.2	0.6	1.9	59.9%	43.8%	0.6	44.4%	20.6%
10	Jao Ituka	G	Jr	6'1"	15-0	14.1	6.9	2.5	0.9	0.3	48.9%	34.4%	4.1	81.0%	27.4%
2	Carlos Coronado	G	Fr	6'3"	20-1	10.3	3.9	0.8	0.6	1.0	41.2%	20.8%	1.2	68.9%	26.2%
8	Ladji Kante	F	Fr	6'7"	17-0	9.2	2.8	1.2	0.4	0.6	43.8%	20.0%	0.9	65.0%	21.2%
23	Jaylen Wharton	F	Jr	6'9"	18-0	7.0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.3	45.2%	—	0.0	42.1%	20.2%
11	Isaiah Washington	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	8.9	2.7	1.3	0.5	0.5	38.9%	11.1%	0.8	64.3%	22.3%
16	Isaiah Stewart	G	Fr	6'6"	13-0	5.5	1.2	0.9	0.3	0.2	60.0%	40.0%	0.4	66.7%	11.0%
4	JJ Taylor	F	Jr	6'8"	3-2	21.0	8.7	2.7	0.3	3.0	41.7%	11.1%	3.0	68.8%	29.3%
21	Max Laskey	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	2.5	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	13.9%
15	Lataevyon Taylor	G	So	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

N Illinois

Against the spread

Season

13-15

Home

3-8

Road

10-7

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −10.6

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

8-20

Home

4-7

Road

4-13

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −4.7

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 9 as an underdogOver in 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	AkronAdjEM #48	A	L 55–94	+23.5	L−15.5	156.0	U149	79.5	135.8	69.2
Mar 3	Kent StateAdjEM #157	H	L 76–102	+10.0	L−16.0	149.5	O178	100.2	134.5	75.9
Feb 28	Ball StateAdjEM #295	H	L 43–79	−1.5	L−37.5	133.5	U122	68.4	125.7	62.8
Feb 24	ToledoAdjEM #115	A	L 69–79	+12.5	W+2.5	150.0	U148	104.3	119.5	66.1
Feb 21	OhioAdjEM #233	H	L 66–74	+5.5	L−2.5	150.0	U140	102.2	114.6	64.6
Feb 17	BuffaloAdjEM #186	A	W 72–70	+8.5	W+10.5	147.5	U142	108.1	105.1	66.6
Feb 14	C MichiganAdjEM #283	A	L 46–88	+4.5	L−37.5	146.0	U134	67.4	128.9	68.3
Feb 11	Bowling GreenAdjEM #114	H	L 52–68	+7.5	L−8.5	145.0	U120	74.6	97.6	69.7
Feb 7	Georgia StAdjEM #310	A	W 75–74	+4.5	W+5.5	142.0	O149	104.8	103.4	71.6
Jan 31	#24Miami OHAdjEM #66	A	L 61–85	+17.0	L−7.0	155.5	U146	83.2	116.0	73.3

Bellarmine

Against the spread

Season

17-13

Home

10-3

Road

6-9

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-10

Home

7-6

Road

11-4

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +11.7

Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	N	L 73–86	+8.0	L−5.0	155.0	O159	115.6	136.2	63.1
Mar 4	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	N	W 82–79	−2.0	W+1.0	146.5	O161	128.6	123.8	63.8
Feb 28	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	H	W 111–97	+5.5	W+19.5	155.0	O208	134.2	117.3	82.7
Feb 25	North AlabamaAdjEM #343	A	L 68–73	−3.0	L−8.0	147.0	U141	115.5	124.0	58.8
Feb 21	E KentuckyAdjEM #287	H	L 92–95	+2.0	L−1.0	153.0	O187	144.3	149.0	63.7
Feb 18	LipscombAdjEM #179	H	L 72–75	+3.5	W+0.5	155.5	U147	112.5	117.2	64.0
Feb 14	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	A	L 70–90	+9.5	L−10.5	153.0	O160	115.7	148.8	60.5
Feb 11	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	A	L 76–84	+7.5	L−0.5	149.5	O160	115.9	128.0	65.6
Feb 7	FGCUAdjEM #246	H	W 81–65	+2.0	W+18.0	152.5	U146	120.3	96.5	67.3
Feb 5	StetsonAdjEM #322	H	W 92–71	−4.5	W+16.5	148.5	O163	149.6	115.5	61.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

N IllinoisBellarmine

Efficiency

100.3

113.2

111.9

119.4

68.5

66.5

—

Shooting

47.6%

59.4%

48.5%

61.0%

30.9%

38.1%

65.7%

78.8%

38.3%

35.0%

Ball control & glass

21.8%

15.5%

16.3%

15.0%

30.3%

22.4%

30.0%

34.2%

11.7%

9.1%

14.5%

9.1%

Style

45.0%

41.2%

41.5%

47.0%

12.7%

9.2%

51.8%

53.4%

31.5%

28.4%

Roster

1.91

2.70

6'4.7"

6'5.8"

86.8%

93.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

N Illinois

Returning minutes: 86.8%Returning production: 90.1%

Lost

Dylan Ducommun 26.5 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Buffalo

Added

Lataevyon Taylor no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Bellarmine

Returning minutes: 93.7%Returning production: 94.6%

Lost

Michael Wilson Jr. 12.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg · transferred to Canisius

Added

Ant McAfee no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 94% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Nov 29	2025-26	Bellarmine 0 – 0 N Illinois

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.