CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceFinneran Pavilion, Villanova, PA
Rider
Efficiency #356
2025-26: 4-25 · 3-17 conf
@
Villanova
Efficiency #40
2025-26: 24-9 · 15-6 conf
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
60.9
win 4%
Projected
81.8
win 96%
No line posted yet.
Model: VILL −20.8 · total 142.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Villanova 66.8, Rider 67.2 → 65.7 possessions
−5.6
Villanova offense vs Rider defense
+8.6
Rider offense vs Villanova defense
−8.5
Projected total
142.7
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Villanova offense vs Rider defense
+8.6
Rider offense vs Villanova defense
+8.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Villanova by 20.8
20.8
Rider side ◂▸ Villanova side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +20.9 against +20.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Villanova.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Villanova is the faster team (66.5, #269 of 365) and Rider the slower (65.7, #309). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
142.7
model
Projected team totals
60.9 / 81.8
Rider / Villanova
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.2#273
Rider
66.8#302
Villanova
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageRider
Where Rider struggles: shooting
Rider shoots an effective 42.8% (#365); Villanova allows 51.4% (#181). Expect about 46.4%, 4.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.9 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageVillanova
Where Villanova scores: shooting
Villanova shoots an effective 53.8% (#74); Rider allows 55.2% (#335). Expect about 54.7%, 3.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.9 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Villanova averages 66.5 possessions per 40, Rider 65.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
TurnoversVillanova
Villanova protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.8% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for Villanova's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Rider, Rider's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Rider at about 28.1% of its shots from three, Villanova about 44.8%.
Rider has the ball
OffenseVillanova allowsvs D1 avg
42.8% #365
51.4% #181
-6.9 pt/100
16.9% #196
18.6% #69
-1.5 pt/100
32.6% #101
31.8% #246
+1.4 pt/100
30.1% #307
30.0% #59
-0.7 pt/100
70.1% #270
—
-0.2 pt/100
Rider net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.9 pts/100
Villanova has the ball
OffenseRider allowsvs D1 avg
53.8% #74
55.2% #335
+4.9 pt/100
15.0% #66
15.3% #268
+2.4 pt/100
32.2% #118
32.8% #294
+1.5 pt/100
30.9% #284
32.5% #116
-0.4 pt/100
68.9% #302
—
-0.3 pt/100
Villanova net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.0 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersRideroffense vsVillanovadefense
Share of shots by zone
Rider shoots
37.7
6.5
28.6
27.2
Villanova allows
37.3
6.9
19.3
36.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 49.2%#364 | 60.9%#267 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.5%#130 | 38.8%#155 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.9%#227 | 40.0%#243 | 38.0% |
| Three | 27.7%#365 | 33.4%#148 | 33.7% |
Villanovaoffense vsRiderdefense
Share of shots by zone
Villanova shoots
34.9
6.0
13.6
45.6
Rider allows
44.5
4.5
10.5
40.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.6%#81 | 57.0%#111 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.5%#91 | 40.6%#203 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.4%#280 | 44.7%#346 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.7%#77 | 37.9%#356 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersRider
−1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#258 of 365
Off reb %
32.6%
#101
Def reb %
67.2%
#294
Turnover %
16.9%
#196
Forced TO %
15.3%
#268
FT rate
30.1%
#307
FT allowed
32.5%
#116
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+0.7
Villanova
+3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#53 of 365
Off reb %
32.2%
#118
Def reb %
68.2%
#246
Turnover %
15.0%
#66
Forced TO %
18.6%
#69
FT rate
30.9%
#284
FT allowed
30.0%
#59
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers+1.3
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed+1.3
Villanova has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.0 (#53 of 365) to Rider’s −1.6 (#258).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Rider2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mark Butlerat Lafayette | G | Sr | 5'10" | 32-32 | 33.9 | 10.7 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 43.7% | 25.0% | 0.6 | 76.0% | 20.9% | |
| 22 | Khalil Farmerat UMass Lowell | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-0 | 14.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 43.2% | 32.1% | 1.7 | 61.7% | 18.3% | |
| 55 | Bryce Bakerat Charleston | G | Sr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 13.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 26.1% | 10.5% | 2.4 | 50.0% | 14.9% | |
| 23 | Horace Simmons Jr.at Drexel | F | Jr | 6'6" | 13-0 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 32.8% | 18.8% | 1.2 | 75.0% | 22.8% | |
| 5 | Ty Bevinsat G Washington | G | Jr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 7.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 42.1% | 26.7% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 17.0% | |
| 13 | Rich Briscoat Akron | F | So | 6'8" | 8-0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 27.2% | |
| 14 | Kam Wylieat 2598 | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Bryce Presley | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | JJ Washington | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Mikes Connelly | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Nasir Washington | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Richie Rosa | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Segun Ezekiel Obe | F | So | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Stephen Avegah Semey | C | Jr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Bryce Baker (from Charleston), Ty Bevins (from G Washington), Rich Brisco (from Akron), Mark Butler (from Lafayette), Khalil Farmer (from UMass Lowell), Horace Simmons Jr. (from Drexel), Kam Wylie (from 2598)
Villanova2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tyler Perkins | G | Jr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 29.8 | 13.7 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 53.2% | 36.9% | 5.4 | 74.5% | 26.3% | |
| 2 | Bryce Lindsay | G | So | 6'3" | 33-31 | 28.5 | 12.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 49.6% | 35.6% | 6.6 | 77.1% | 27.1% | |
| 33 | Matt Hodge | F | Fr | 6'8" | 29-29 | 27.6 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 57.2% | 36.8% | 4.7 | 65.2% | 18.9% | |
| 7 | Malachi Palmer | G | So | 6'6" | 33-4 | 18.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 58.6% | 35.9% | 2.4 | 76.2% | 14.0% | |
| 17 | Braden Pierce | C | So | 7'0" | 30-1 | 6.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 60.0% | 11.0% | |
| 0 | Chris Jeffrey | G | Fr | 6'3" | 22-0 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 54.3% | 35.7% | 0.6 | 80.0% | 20.2% | |
| 6 | Tafara Gapare | F | Sr | 6'9" | 9-0 | 16.3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 31.5% | 21.4% | 1.6 | 81.8% | 15.8% | |
| 1 | Zion Stanford | G | Jr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 75.0% | 23.4% | |
| 14 | Wade Chiddick | G | Sr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 38.5% | |
| 15 | Malcolm Flaggs | G | So | 6'6" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 30.2% | |
| 21 | Nico Onyekwere | C | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Rider2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mark Butlerat Lafayette | G | Sr | 5'10" | 32-32 | 33.9 | 10.7 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 43.7% | 25.0% | 0.6 | 76.0% | 20.9% | |
| 22 | Khalil Farmerat UMass Lowell | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-0 | 14.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 43.2% | 32.1% | 1.7 | 61.7% | 18.3% | |
| 55 | Bryce Bakerat Charleston | G | Sr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 13.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 26.1% | 10.5% | 2.4 | 50.0% | 14.9% | |
| 23 | Horace Simmons Jr.at Drexel | F | Jr | 6'6" | 13-0 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 32.8% | 18.8% | 1.2 | 75.0% | 22.8% | |
| 5 | Ty Bevinsat G Washington | G | Jr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 7.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 42.1% | 26.7% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 17.0% | |
| 13 | Rich Briscoat Akron | F | So | 6'8" | 8-0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 27.2% | |
| 14 | Kam Wylieat 2598 | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Bryce Presley | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | JJ Washington | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Mikes Connelly | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Nasir Washington | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Richie Rosa | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Segun Ezekiel Obe | F | So | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Stephen Avegah Semey | C | Jr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Bryce Baker (from Charleston), Ty Bevins (from G Washington), Rich Brisco (from Akron), Mark Butler (from Lafayette), Khalil Farmer (from UMass Lowell), Horace Simmons Jr. (from Drexel), Kam Wylie (from 2598)
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Rider
Against the spread
Season
9-17-2
Home
3-8-1
Road
6-9-1
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −3.9
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
9-19
Home
4-8
Road
5-11
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +4.0
Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1 | Siena | A | L 61–76 | +14.5 | L−0.5 | 137.5 | U137 | 91.6 | 114.2 | 66.6 |
| Feb 27 | Iona | A | L 58–80 | +11.5 | L−10.5 | 141.0 | U138 | 80.9 | 111.5 | 71.7 |
| Feb 22 | Niagara | H | W 67–62 | +2.0 | W+7.0 | 130.5 | U129 | 103.3 | 95.5 | 64.9 |
| Feb 20 | Canisius | H | L 66–72 | −1.0 | L−7.0 | 131.0 | O138 | 97.8 | 106.7 | 67.5 |
| Feb 15 | Sacred Heart | A | L 75–86 | +9.0 | L−2.0 | 146.5 | O161 | 108.6 | 124.5 | 69.1 |
| Feb 13 | Mount St Marys | H | L 55–65 | +5.0 | L−5.0 | 138.5 | U120 | 84.7 | 100.1 | 64.9 |
| Feb 7 | Merrimack | H | L 47–73 | +8.5 | L−17.5 | 137.5 | U120 | 81.8 | 127.1 | 57.5 |
| Feb 5 | Marist | A | L 52–81 | +14.0 | L−15.0 | 135.5 | U133 | 88.1 | 137.2 | 59.0 |
| Feb 1 | Saint Peter's | H | W 81–78 | +7.5 | W+10.5 | 136.0 | O159 | 124.1 | 119.5 | 65.3 |
| Jan 30 | Manhattan | A | L 90–95 | +6.0 | W+1.0 | 146.0 | O185 | 133.6 | 141.1 | 67.3 |
Villanova
Against the spread
Season
18-14-1
Home
8-9
Road
8-3-1
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −4.4
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
20-13
Home
11-6
Road
7-5
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +6.5
Over 3 straightOver in 6 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20 | #9Utah State | N | L 76–86 | +2.0 | L−8.0 | 147.5 | O162 | 111.5 | 126.2 | 68.1 |
| Mar 12 | Georgetown | N | L 64–78 | −6.5 | L−20.5 | 141.0 | O142 | 99.4 | 121.1 | 64.4 |
| Mar 7 | Xavier | H | W 91–78 | −13.5 | L−0.5 | 154.0 | O169 | 128.2 | 109.9 | 71.0 |
| Mar 4 | DePaul | A | W 76–57 | −2.0 | W+17.0 | 136.5 | U133 | 108.2 | 81.1 | 70.3 |
| Feb 28 | #15St John's | A | L 57–89 | +7.5 | L−24.5 | 148.0 | U146 | 78.6 | 122.8 | 72.5 |
| Feb 25 | Butler | H | W 82–73 | −10.5 | L−1.5 | 147.0 | O155 | 116.7 | 103.9 | 70.2 |
| Feb 21 | #5UConn | H | L 63–73 | +3.0 | L−7.0 | 141.0 | U136 | 100.1 | 116.0 | 62.9 |
| Feb 17 | Xavier | A | W 92–89 OT | −4.0 | L−1.0 | 153.5 | O181 | 116.7 | 112.9 | 78.8 |
| Feb 14 | Creighton | A | W 80–69 | −2.5 | W+8.5 | 146.0 | O149 | 115.3 | 99.5 | 69.4 |
| Feb 10 | Marquette | H | W 77–74 | −9.5 | L−6.5 | 145.0 | O151 | 109.8 | 105.5 | 70.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeRiderVillanova
Efficiency
100.0
115.0
115.1
104.1
67.2
66.8
—
—
Shooting
42.8%
53.8%
43.3%
54.0%
27.7%
35.7%
70.1%
68.9%
30.1%
30.9%
Ball control & glass
16.9%
15.0%
15.3%
18.6%
32.6%
32.2%
32.8%
31.8%
9.9%
7.6%
8.3%
7.3%
Style
27.5%
45.7%
43.2%
40.3%
12.6%
11.7%
44.3%
56.8%
33.0%
27.3%
Roster
3.88
2.09
6'0.8"
6'5.5"
0.0%
58.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputRider
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
- Flash Burton 32.1 mpg, 15.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Zion Cruz 30.4 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Caleb Smith 29.8 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Shemani Fuller 21.4 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Davis Bynum 18.3 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Cole McCabe 12.2 mpg, 2.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Mark Butler from Lafayette · 33.9 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
- Khalil Farmer from UMass Lowell · 14.2 mpg, 3.8 ppg last season
- Bryce Baker from Charleston · 3.3 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Horace Simmons Jr. from Drexel · 2.7 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
- Ty Bevins from G Washington · 2.2 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
- Rich Brisco from Akron · 0.7 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Villanova
Returning minutes: 58.6%Returning production: 51.4%
Lost
- Acaden Lewis 30.5 mpg, 12.2 ppg · transferred to Miami
- Duke Brennan 30.1 mpg, 12.1 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma
- Devin Askew 23.1 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Nico Onyekwere no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 59% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.