South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green basketball preview & prediction
Sat, Nov 14 · 6:00 PM ET · The Super Pit, Denton, TX
Non-conferenceESPN+The Super Pit, Denton, TX
South Alabama
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #216
@
North Texas
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #122
Sat, Nov 14 · 6:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, South Alabama is the faster team (65.8, #317 of 365) and North Texas the slower (65.7, #318). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.8
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#326
South Alabama
68.4#311
North Texas
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
North Texas has the ball+7.8
South Alabama has the ball−3.3
North Texas has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 52.7% #143 · USA allows 58.7% #310+5.3
✓Wins second chancesOR% 41.9% #32 · USA allows 27.5% #118+2.1
✓Gets to the lineFTR 39.3% #145 · USA allows 28.9% #88 · FT 81.8% #31+0.4
✗Coughs it upTO% 18.3% #190 · USA forces 18.2% #164 · ~12 turnovers0.0
South Alabama has the ball
✗Few second chancesOR% 20.8% #331 · UNT allows 36.8% #278−2.0
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 52.4% #151 · UNT allows 45.5% #87−1.2
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 36.0% #190 · UNT allows 38.2% #193 · FT 64.4% #264−0.3
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 12.8% #41 · UNT forces 22.8% #56 · ~12 turnovers+0.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootSouth Alabamaoffense vsNorth Texasdefense
Share of shots by zone
South Alabama shoots
31.7
19.8
9.9
38.6
North Texas allows
27.5
5.9
17.6
49.0
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 78.1%#9 | 57.1%#162 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#75 | 33.3%#125 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.0%#117 | 11.1%#30 | 34.7% |
| Three | 22.4%#332 | 35.7%#248 | 32.5% |
North Texasoffense vsSouth Alabamadefense
Share of shots by zone
North Texas shoots
41.8
1.8
7.3
49.1
South Alabama allows
20.9
6.4
10.0
62.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 73.9%#24 | 69.6%#300 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 0.0%#323 | 28.6%#100 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 50.0%#45 | 27.3%#106 | 34.7% |
| Three | 25.9%#287 | 41.6%#313 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineSouth Alabama
+3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#121 of 365
Off reb %
20.8%
#331
Def reb %
72.5%
#118
Turnover %
12.8%
#41
Forced TO %
18.2%
#164
FT rate
36.0%
#190
FT allowed
28.9%
#88
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.6
Defensive rebounding+1.4
Ball security+3.8
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed+2.4
North Texas
+5.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#101 of 365
Off reb %
41.9%
#32
Def reb %
63.2%
#278
Turnover %
18.3%
#190
Forced TO %
22.8%
#56
FT rate
39.3%
#145
FT allowed
38.2%
#193
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+3.5
Defensive rebounding−1.7
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+3.4
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed−0.1
North Texas has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.5 (#101 of 365) to South Alabama’s +3.7 (#121).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notSouth Alabama2026-27 numbers · last game: Jax State, Nov 5
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'1" | 2-2 | 39.5 | 33 | — | Started last | 25.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 56.1% | 29.4% | 8.5 | 86.7% | 32.6% | |
| 21 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 2-2 | 35.0 | 32 | — | Started last | 12.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 40.0% | 23.5% | 8.5 | 57.1% | 25.2% | |
| 13 | G | Fr | 6'8" | 2-2 | 34.0 | 27 | — | Started last | 12.5 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 61.8% | 100.0% | 0.5 | 57.1% | 25.5% | |
| 4 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 2-2 | 33.5 | 33 | — | Started last | 20.5 | 10.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 75.0% | — | 0.0 | 41.7% | 26.9% | |
| 24 | F | So | 6'9" | 2-2 | 21.5 | 19 | — | Started last | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 1.5 | 100.0% | 8.1% | |
| 6 | F | Jr | 6'10" | 2-0 | 18.5 | 21 | — | Bench | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5 | — | 5.1% | |
| 9 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 2-0 | 15.5 | 13 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 11.6% | |
| 10 | F | So | 6'6" | 2-0 | 11.5 | 7 | — | Bench | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 80.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 19.9% | |
| 3 | G | So | 6'3" | 2-0 | 8.0 | 7 | — | Bench | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 11.0% | |
| 0 | G | So | 6'2" | 2-0 | 8.0 | 8 | — | Bench | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 2.5 | — | 26.0% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesSouth Alabama
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-2
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −5.0
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
2-0
Home
2-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-0
avg vs total +15.8
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | UCF | A | L 69–76 | +14.0 | W+7.0 | 151.0 | U145 | 113.7 | 125.2 | 60.7 |
| Nov 5 | Jax State | H | W 83–80 2OT | −5.0 | L−2.0 | 139.5 | O163 | 107.7 | 103.8 | 77.1 |
| Nov 2 | Ohio | H | L 77–86 | +1.0 | L−8.0 | 155.0 | O163 | 108.6 | 121.3 | 70.9 |
| Mar 17 | Auburn | A | L 67–78 | +18.0 | W+7.0 | 153.0 | U145 | 104.4 | 121.6 | 64.2 |
| Mar 6 | GA Southern | N | L 85–94 | −4.5 | L−13.5 | 148.5 | O179 | 126.5 | 139.9 | 67.2 |
| Feb 27 | Southern Miss | H | L 55–68 | −4.0 | L−17.0 | 142.0 | U123 | 85.0 | 105.1 | 64.7 |
| Feb 25 | UL Monroe | H | W 89–54 | −14.5 | W+20.5 | 153.5 | U143 | 132.3 | 80.3 | 67.3 |
| Feb 21 | Troy | H | W 65–54 | +2.5 | W+13.5 | 143.0 | U119 | 111.0 | 92.2 | 58.5 |
| Feb 19 | Texas St | H | L 82–90 OT | −4.0 | L−12.0 | 137.5 | O172 | 112.6 | 123.5 | 72.8 |
| Feb 16 | Marshall | A | L 80–84 | +5.5 | W+1.5 | 151.0 | O164 | 123.6 | 129.8 | 64.7 |
North Texas
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +12.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +5.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | McNeese | H | W 77–67 | +2.0 | W+12.0 | 139.0 | O144 | 117.2 | 102.0 | 65.7 |
| Nov 2 | Southwestern Christian U Eagles | H | W 122–50 | — | — | — | — | 150.2 | 61.6 | 81.2 |
| Mar 13 | Tulsa | N | L 84–90 3OT | +8.5 | W+2.5 | 142.0 | O174 | 92.1 | 98.7 | 91.2 |
| Mar 12 | FAU | N | W 74–70 | −1.5 | W+2.5 | 137.0 | O144 | 103.4 | 97.8 | 71.5 |
| Mar 4 | Rice | H | W 62–58 | −6.5 | L−2.5 | 138.0 | U120 | 101.6 | 95.0 | 61.0 |
| Mar 1 | UAB | A | W 62–58 | +5.0 | W+9.0 | 141.5 | U120 | 96.7 | 90.4 | 64.1 |
| Feb 25 | Charlotte | A | L 79–80 | −1.5 | L−2.5 | 133.5 | O159 | 124.8 | 126.4 | 63.3 |
| Feb 22 | FAU | H | W 73–72 | −2.5 | L−1.5 | 140.5 | O145 | 113.7 | 112.1 | 64.2 |
| Feb 19 | Tulane | H | L 71–77 | −6.5 | L−12.5 | 137.5 | O148 | 108.3 | 117.4 | 65.6 |
| Feb 15 | Temple | A | W 65–62 | +2.0 | W+5.0 | 135.0 | U127 | 101.9 | 97.2 | 63.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSouth AlabamaNorth Texas
Efficiency
104.9
104.0
108.3
100.1
68.0
68.4
-1.0
10.4
Shooting
52.4%
52.7%
64.5%
65.5%
22.4%
25.9%
64.4%
81.8%
36.0%
39.3%
Ball control & glass
12.8%
18.3%
18.2%
22.8%
20.8%
41.9%
27.5%
36.8%
8.8%
13.7%
10.5%
6.9%
Style
39.2%
48.2%
57.5%
44.2%
12.5%
24.7%
46.7%
46.2%
27.3%
44.4%
Roster
2.70
2.44
6'5.4"
6'5.9"
11.6%
39.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSouth Alabama
Returning minutes: 11.6%Returning production: 17.7%
Lost
- Adam Olsen 33.8 mpg, 15.7 ppg · transferred to Auburn
- Chaze Harris 31.8 mpg, 19.2 ppg · transferred to Charlotte
- Jayden Cooper 30.0 mpg, 11.3 ppg · transferred to ETSU
- Randy Brady 26.9 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Hantz Louis-Jeune 23.5 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- John Broom 14.3 mpg, 2.1 ppg · transferred to Vermont
Added
- Roderick Williams Jr. new to D1 · 21.0 mpg, 9.0 ppg last season
- Davaughn Hueitt new to D1 · 13.0 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
- Desmond Williams no D1 minutes last season
- Jalen Langsy no D1 minutes last season
- Alexey Sereda no D1 minutes last season
- Keyne Costa no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 12% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
North Texas
Returning minutes: 43.5%Returning production: 45.4%
Lost
- David Terrell Jr. 32.8 mpg, 13.5 ppg · transferred to SMU
- Dylan Arnett 26.5 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Demarion Watson 13.7 mpg, 2.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Buddy Hammer Jr. 12.5 mpg, 3.6 ppg · transferred to Akron
- Cahmai Crosby 9.4 mpg, 2.7 ppg · transferred to Omaha
- Josiah Shackleford 9.2 mpg, 4.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Cash Chavis from UT Arlington · 27.1 mpg, 10.5 ppg last season
- Amar Amkou from FAU · 10.0 mpg, 4.4 ppg last season
- Mitchell Holmes from SMU · 4.0 mpg, 1.3 ppg last season
- Ousmane Ndour no D1 minutes last season
- Aeneas Alexander no D1 minutes last season
- Marcus Zelee no D1 minutes last season
Returns 43% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sun, Dec 14 | 2025-26 | North Texas 58 – 57 South Alabama |
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
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