CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLeo D. Mahoney Arena, Fairfield, CT
NJIT
Efficiency #331
2025-26: 16-17 · 11-7 conf
@
Fairfield
Efficiency #230
2025-26: 21-13 · 13-10 conf
Sat, Nov 14 · 7:00 PM ET
68.2
win 22%
Projected
77.0
win 78%
No line posted yet.
Model: FAIR −8.8 · total 145.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Fairfield 68.1, NJIT 68.7 → 68.5 possessions
+0.4
Fairfield offense vs NJIT defense
+0.7
NJIT offense vs Fairfield defense
−4.2
Projected total
145.2
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Fairfield offense vs NJIT defense
+0.7
NJIT offense vs Fairfield defense
+4.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Fairfield by 8.8
8.8
NJIT side ◂▸ Fairfield side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 145.1 against a projected 145.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Fairfield.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, NJIT is the faster team (67.9, #204 of 365) and Fairfield the slower (67.1, #239). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.2
model
Projected team totals
68.2 / 77.0
NJIT / Fairfield
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.7#140
NJIT
68.1#203
Fairfield

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageNJIT
Where NJIT struggles: shooting
NJIT shoots an effective 46.7% (#342); Fairfield allows 51.0% (#159). Expect about 48.5%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.9 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageFairfield
Where Fairfield struggles: shooting
Fairfield shoots an effective 48.8% (#294); NJIT allows 50.0% (#99). Expect about 49.2%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.
GlassFairfield
Fairfield owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.0% is worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions for Fairfield's offense.
GlassNJIT
NJIT gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.9% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against NJIT's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (NJIT) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect NJIT at about 37.7% of its shots from three, Fairfield about 37.0%.
NJIT has the ball
OffenseFairfield allowsvs D1 avg
46.7% #342
51.0% #159
-3.9 pt/100
17.1% #210
16.8% #165
-0.3 pt/100
26.2% #316
29.1% #116
-2.1 pt/100
33.2% #233
30.4% #69
-0.5 pt/100
70.5% #253
—
-0.2 pt/100
NJIT net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.0 pts/100
Fairfield has the ball
OffenseNJIT allowsvs D1 avg
48.8% #294
50.0% #99
-3.0 pt/100
15.3% #92
16.2% #210
+1.4 pt/100
35.8% #29
32.1% #264
+2.8 pt/100
27.7% #346
37.9% #258
-0.2 pt/100
70.5% #255
—
-0.2 pt/100
Fairfield net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
NJIToffense vsFairfielddefense
Share of shots by zone
NJIT shoots
Fairfield allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.7%#32455.7%#7858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.7%#15251.7%#35839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.4%#17534.0%#4938.0%
Three30.4%#33634.3%#20033.7%
Fairfieldoffense vsNJITdefense
Share of shots by zone
Fairfield shoots
NJIT allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim52.7%#34357.8%#14258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.7%#2943.7%#26139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.6%#16530.7%#738.0%
Three33.2%#21632.3%#7933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
NJIT
−3.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#316 of 365
Off reb %
26.2%
#316
Def reb %
67.9%
#264
Turnover %
17.1%
#210
Forced TO %
16.2%
#210
FT rate
33.2%
#233
FT allowed
37.9%
#258
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.3
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn−0.5
Foul shots allowed−0.7
Fairfield
+2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#71 of 365
Off reb %
35.8%
#29
Def reb %
70.9%
#116
Turnover %
15.3%
#92
Forced TO %
16.8%
#165
FT rate
27.7%
#346
FT allowed
30.4%
#69
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.7
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn−1.9
Foul shots allowed+1.2

Fairfield has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.6 (#71 of 365) to NJIT’s −3.5 (#316).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

NJIT2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted NJIT's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1David BoldenGFr6'0"33-3329.811.82.82.82.041.9%31.8%6.780.2%28.6%
24Ari FultonGSo6'7"33-3228.310.96.21.21.547.1%26.2%3.278.9%24.2%
3Jordan RogersFSo6'6"33-3326.65.85.22.21.554.7%33.3%1.866.7%14.7%
0Sebastian RobinsonGJr6'3"30-1527.414.83.02.21.946.8%24.0%1.770.1%35.7%
11Melvyn EbonkoliFSr6'8"21-1826.17.35.70.61.751.6%—0.052.4%20.1%
25John KellyFSo6'8"33-015.64.32.50.40.647.1%34.2%1.268.8%17.6%
14Quentin DuncanGSo6'4"33-413.64.41.70.50.350.8%37.6%2.652.0%19.9%
44Rocco AwadGFr6'1"33-112.83.11.30.30.639.2%26.4%2.676.9%19.7%
32Malachi ArringtonCSo6'11"29-1514.23.93.70.00.759.7%—0.055.3%16.4%
2Jeremy ClayvilleGSo6'1"16-1419.46.81.51.51.342.7%30.1%5.2100.0%26.6%
33Zack ScherlerFFr6'11"19-06.51.01.20.20.350.0%—0.055.6%10.8%
8Jeffrey AkintoluFJr6'7"19-05.60.70.90.00.230.0%13.3%0.850.0%13.9%
7Cameron PiggeeGJr6'1"18-05.41.80.30.40.241.9%32.0%1.485.7%21.9%
5AJ AltobelliGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Stefan Jimenez-VojnicCSo6'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
NJITFairfield
Efficiency
100.5
107.4
110.6
110.4
68.7
68.1
—
—
Shooting
46.7%
48.8%
47.5%
48.2%
30.4%
33.2%
70.5%
70.5%
33.2%
27.7%
Ball control & glass
17.1%
15.3%
16.2%
16.8%
26.2%
35.8%
32.1%
29.1%
9.6%
8.7%
9.0%
10.5%
Style
40.1%
35.4%
40.9%
44.5%
12.9%
12.8%
45.7%
45.2%
33.0%
31.1%
Roster
2.09
2.44
6'4.9"
6'5.1"
—
50.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
NJIT
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted NJIT's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Fairfield
Returning minutes: 50.2%Returning production: 45.6%
Lost
  • Braden Sparks 33.3 mpg, 17.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Brandon Benjamin 29.5 mpg, 13.4 ppg · transferred to Boston College
  • Deuce Turner 20.0 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Ryan Zan 7.0 mpg, 0.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Cam Estevez 6.8 mpg, 2.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Michael Rogan 3.2 mpg, 0.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Qadir Martin from Mercyhurst · 31.4 mpg, 11.6 ppg last season
  • Marko Radunovic from Boston College · 5.4 mpg, 1.3 ppg last season
  • Cole Edelen no D1 minutes last season
  • Jaden Brown no D1 minutes last season
  • Jah Hatchett no D1 minutes last season
  • Noah Best no D1 minutes last season

Returns 50% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Nov 82025-26Fairfield 74 – 53 NJIT

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.