CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMVP Arena, Albany, NY

Brown

Efficiency #275

2025-26: 9-18 · 3-11 conf

Siena

Efficiency #134

2025-26: 23-12 · 16-7 conf

Sat, Nov 14 · TBD

63.8

win 22%

Projected

72.9

win 78%

No line posted yet.

Model: SIE −9.0 · total 136.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Siena 66.4, Brown 67.9 → 66.0 possessions

−5.0

Siena offense vs Brown defense

−0.6

Brown offense vs Siena defense

−5.9

Projected total

136.7

Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Siena offense vs Brown defense

−0.6

Brown offense vs Siena defense

+5.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Siena by 9.0

9.0

Brown side ◂▸ Siena side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +9.1 against +9.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Siena.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Brown is the faster team (66.7, #260 of 365) and Siena the slower (64.2, #350). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

136.7

model

Projected team totals

63.8 / 72.9

Brown / Siena

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.9#220

Brown

66.4#322

Siena

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Siena averages 64.2 possessions per 40, Brown 66.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageBrown

Where Brown struggles: shooting

Brown shoots an effective 48.6% (#299); Siena allows 48.5% (#48). Expect about 48.3%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.2 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversBrown

Brown turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.4% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Brown's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Siena, Brown) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Brown at about 36.9% of its shots from three, Siena about 35.9%.

ClashSiena

Style clash: 3-point volume

Siena rarely shoots threes (32.2% of its shots); Brown lets opponents take 43.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 35.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

ClashSiena

Style clash: paint scoring

Siena scores 47.7% of its points in the paint; Brown protects the paint (38.4% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).

Brown has the ball

OffenseSiena allowsvs D1 avg

48.6% #299

48.5% #48

-4.2 pt/100

19.5% #337

17.0% #152

-2.1 pt/100

29.0% #236

29.5% #133

-0.9 pt/100

28.1% #342

27.5% #27

-1.0 pt/100

68.4% #316

—

-0.4 pt/100

Brown net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.4 pts/100

Siena has the ball

OffenseBrown allowsvs D1 avg

50.4% #222

51.3% #176

-0.7 pt/100

15.8% #126

18.7% #62

-0.9 pt/100

31.8% #133

30.0% #164

+0.5 pt/100

33.4% #226

37.6% #253

+0.1 pt/100

77.1% #32

—

+0.4 pt/100

Siena net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Brownoffense vsSienadefense

Share of shots by zone

Brown shoots

44.3

4.7

14.9

36.1

Siena allows

36.8

4.8

19.2

39.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.9%#276	53.4%#29	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.5%#90	44.7%#287	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.7%#297	39.7%#232	38.0%
Three	30.3%#338	32.3%#82	33.7%

Sienaoffense vsBrowndefense

Share of shots by zone

Siena shoots

40.8

5.5

22.2

31.6

Brown allows

37.3

2.8

16.3

43.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.7%#206	55.7%#77	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.5%#46	40.5%#200	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.1%#23	45.8%#355	38.0%
Three	30.6%#330	33.5%#157	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Brown

−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#308 of 365

Off reb %

29.0%

#236

Def reb %

70.0%

#164

Turnover %

19.5%

#337

Forced TO %

18.7%

#62

FT rate

28.1%

#342

FT allowed

37.6%

#253

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.5

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security−1.8

Forcing turnovers+1.4

Foul shots drawn−1.8

Foul shots allowed−0.6

Siena

+3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#50 of 365

Off reb %

31.8%

#133

Def reb %

70.5%

#133

Turnover %

15.8%

#126

Forced TO %

17.0%

#152

FT rate

33.4%

#226

FT allowed

27.5%

#27

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.5

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security+0.6

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.4

Foul shots allowed+2.0

Siena has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.2 (#50 of 365) to Brown’s −3.1 (#308).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Brown2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Brown's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Jeremiah Jenkins	G	So	6'0"	27-27	30.1	8.2	3.9	5.2	2.8	44.6%	36.4%	3.7	75.5%	22.2%
5	Adrian Uchidiuno	G	Jr	6'2"	27-8	25.3	9.1	2.7	1.1	1.4	42.1%	26.2%	5.4	81.3%	27.4%
40	Landon Lewis	F	Sr	6'7"	21-21	30.8	16.6	7.2	1.9	2.3	56.3%	42.9%	0.7	56.5%	32.3%
45	N'famara Dabo	F	Jr	6'8"	27-25	23.3	7.2	5.7	1.0	0.8	63.6%	0.0%	0.0	56.3%	16.7%
12	Malcolm Wrisby-Jefferson	G	Jr	6'4"	27-11	22.2	4.2	3.6	2.8	1.5	41.5%	22.6%	1.1	73.9%	16.6%
1	Isaiah Langham	G	Fr	6'5"	27-13	21.1	8.4	2.4	0.9	1.4	45.9%	18.8%	2.4	70.2%	28.2%
23	David Rochester	F	So	6'8"	22-7	22.0	6.2	3.4	1.6	1.1	44.2%	28.6%	1.3	72.5%	19.8%
14	Luke Paragon	G	Jr	6'4"	26-18	16.4	7.1	1.5	0.6	0.5	59.2%	39.0%	3.8	93.5%	21.8%
33	Charlie O'Sullivan	F	Fr	6'10"	20-0	11.5	4.6	2.1	0.9	0.5	60.4%	37.3%	2.5	71.4%	21.7%
30	Brady Loughlin	G	Fr	6'5"	12-1	18.2	6.5	2.0	0.7	0.9	59.2%	38.8%	4.1	70.0%	21.0%
6	Wyatt DeGraaf	F	So	6'10"	14-3	9.2	2.4	1.6	0.3	0.6	68.2%	—	0.0	42.9%	15.7%
32	Drew Kania	F	Sr	6'8"	8-1	5.4	1.6	1.0	0.1	0.3	30.8%	—	0.0	71.4%	24.9%
4	Jonah Drezner	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	5.6	2.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	61.1%	42.9%	1.4	—	19.4%
11	Jerrell Barron Jr.	G	So	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Siena2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Brendan Coyle	G	Sr	6'7"	35-35	30.5	8.7	4.6	0.9	1.0	46.8%	30.0%	6.8	82.1%	19.8%
30	Tan Yildizogluat VMI	G	Sr	6'4"	31-31	31.1	10.2	3.6	4.7	2.3	45.4%	27.1%	3.8	63.3%	24.5%
2	Isaiah Henderson	G	So	6'6"	28-1	13.8	3.8	0.8	0.5	0.5	47.1%	30.4%	2.5	75.8%	18.8%
11	Owen Schlager	G	So	6'3"	5-0	10.0	2.8	1.2	0.6	1.4	31.8%	14.3%	1.4	70.0%	27.5%
33	Chris Torres	G	Jr	6'2"	4-0	2.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	0.0	25.0%	—	0.0	—	24.4%
12	Reid Ducharme	G	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	Andrs Amn	G	Fr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Angelos Bratakos	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Mana Martin	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Pace Prosser	G	Jr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Parrish Edmond Jr.	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
94	Paul Lambert	G	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
0	Sei'Mir Roberson	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Tim Ibukunoluwa	G	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
5	Trent Egbiremolen	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
77	Yannis Steger	G	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Tan Yildizoglu (from VMI)

Brown2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Brown's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Jeremiah Jenkins	G	So	6'0"	27-27	30.1	8.2	3.9	5.2	2.8	44.6%	36.4%	3.7	75.5%	22.2%
5	Adrian Uchidiuno	G	Jr	6'2"	27-8	25.3	9.1	2.7	1.1	1.4	42.1%	26.2%	5.4	81.3%	27.4%
40	Landon Lewis	F	Sr	6'7"	21-21	30.8	16.6	7.2	1.9	2.3	56.3%	42.9%	0.7	56.5%	32.3%
45	N'famara Dabo	F	Jr	6'8"	27-25	23.3	7.2	5.7	1.0	0.8	63.6%	0.0%	0.0	56.3%	16.7%
12	Malcolm Wrisby-Jefferson	G	Jr	6'4"	27-11	22.2	4.2	3.6	2.8	1.5	41.5%	22.6%	1.1	73.9%	16.6%
1	Isaiah Langham	G	Fr	6'5"	27-13	21.1	8.4	2.4	0.9	1.4	45.9%	18.8%	2.4	70.2%	28.2%
23	David Rochester	F	So	6'8"	22-7	22.0	6.2	3.4	1.6	1.1	44.2%	28.6%	1.3	72.5%	19.8%
14	Luke Paragon	G	Jr	6'4"	26-18	16.4	7.1	1.5	0.6	0.5	59.2%	39.0%	3.8	93.5%	21.8%
33	Charlie O'Sullivan	F	Fr	6'10"	20-0	11.5	4.6	2.1	0.9	0.5	60.4%	37.3%	2.5	71.4%	21.7%
30	Brady Loughlin	G	Fr	6'5"	12-1	18.2	6.5	2.0	0.7	0.9	59.2%	38.8%	4.1	70.0%	21.0%
6	Wyatt DeGraaf	F	So	6'10"	14-3	9.2	2.4	1.6	0.3	0.6	68.2%	—	0.0	42.9%	15.7%
32	Drew Kania	F	Sr	6'8"	8-1	5.4	1.6	1.0	0.1	0.3	30.8%	—	0.0	71.4%	24.9%
4	Jonah Drezner	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	5.6	2.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	61.1%	42.9%	1.4	—	19.4%
11	Jerrell Barron Jr.	G	So	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Brown

Against the spread

Season

13-12

Home

5-7

Road

8-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −3.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

12-13

Home

4-8

Road

8-5

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.3

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	PennAdjEM #162	H	L 61–82	−1.0	L−22.0	147.0	U143	84.9	114.2	71.8
Feb 28	CornellAdjEM #135	A	L 80–86	+9.5	W+3.5	157.5	O166	110.7	119.1	72.2
Feb 27	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	A	L 62–80	+5.5	L−12.5	140.0	O142	91.1	117.6	68.1
Feb 20	PrincetonAdjEM #251	H	W 80–71	−3.0	W+6.0	130.0	O151	124.7	110.7	64.1
Feb 14	DartmouthAdjEM #254	A	W 79–76	+3.0	W+6.0	139.5	O155	110.6	106.4	71.5
Feb 13	HarvardAdjEM #133	A	L 53–56	+8.0	W+5.0	131.5	U109	85.7	90.6	61.8
Feb 6	YaleAdjEM #57	A	L 69–81	+15.0	W+3.0	139.0	O150	105.7	124.1	65.3
Jan 31	DartmouthAdjEM #254	H	L 70–77 OT	−2.0	L−9.0	143.0	O147	93.7	103.1	74.7
Jan 30	HarvardAdjEM #133	H	L 59–69	+1.5	L−8.5	133.0	U128	96.8	113.3	60.9
Jan 24	PrincetonAdjEM #251	A	L 53–63	+4.5	L−5.5	133.5	U116	83.1	98.7	63.8

Siena

Against the spread

Season

20-14-1

Home

7-6

Road

8-7-1

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.2

Covered 5 straightCovered 4 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-23-1

Home

4-9

Road

7-9

Last 10

1-8-1

avg vs total −3.4

Over in 0 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#1DukeAdjEM #2	N	L 65–71	+27.5	W+21.5	136.0	P136	105.0	114.7	61.9
Mar 10	MerrimackAdjEM #158	N	W 64–54	+1.5	W+11.5	128.5	U118	100.7	84.9	63.6
Mar 8	FairfieldAdjEM #230	N	W 76–61	−1.5	W+13.5	138.0	U137	119.0	95.5	63.9
Mar 7	Mount St MarysAdjEM #265	N	W 63–58	−3.0	W+2.0	135.0	U121	104.4	96.1	60.3
Mar 1	RiderAdjEM #356	H	W 76–61	−14.5	W+0.5	137.5	U137	114.2	91.6	66.6
Feb 27	FairfieldAdjEM #230	A	L 58–72	−1.0	L−15.0	142.5	U130	82.9	102.9	69.9
Feb 22	Saint Peter'sAdjEM #225	H	W 72–63	−6.0	W+3.0	136.0	U135	117.3	102.6	61.4
Feb 20	MerrimackAdjEM #158	A	L 72–79 OT	+2.5	L−4.5	133.0	O151	113.6	124.7	63.4
Feb 15	MaristAdjEM #153	A	W 67–63	+2.0	W+6.0	134.0	U130	102.7	96.5	65.3
Feb 13	QuinnipiacAdjEM #190	H	L 62–74	−4.0	L−16.0	144.0	U136	92.8	110.8	66.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

BrownSiena

Efficiency

101.4

108.6

107.4

106.7

67.9

66.4

—

Shooting

48.6%

50.4%

52.5%

30.3%

30.6%

68.4%

77.1%

28.1%

33.4%

Ball control & glass

19.5%

15.8%

18.7%

17.0%

29.0%

31.8%

30.0%

29.5%

11.3%

10.2%

9.4%

9.5%

Style

36.3%

32.2%

50.4%

47.7%

13.3%

7.1%

59.5%

53.2%

37.1%

22.3%

Roster

2.49

3.65

6'4.9"

6'5.6"

—

21.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Brown

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Brown's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Siena

Returning minutes: 21.6%Returning production: 12.4%

Lost

Gavin Doty 36.7 mpg, 18.0 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
Justice Shoats 35.6 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Francis Folefac 28.1 mpg, 11.3 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
Antonio Chandler 18.3 mpg, 6.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Christian Jones 17.0 mpg, 4.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Riley Mulvey 13.4 mpg, 2.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Tan Yildizoglu from VMI · 30.2 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
Paul Lambert no D1 minutes last season
Angelos Bratakos no D1 minutes last season
Mana Martin no D1 minutes last season
Yannis Steger no D1 minutes last season
Tim Ibukunoluwa no D1 minutes last season

Returns 22% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Fri, Nov 7	2025-26	Siena 62 – 46 Brown

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.