CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceYuengling Center, Tampa, FL

Coppin St

Efficiency #364

2025-26: 7-24 · 5-9 conf

South Florida

Efficiency #36

2025-26: 25-9 · 17-3 conf

Sat, Nov 14 · TBD

64.1

win 1%

Projected

89.7

win 99%

No line posted yet.

Model: USF −25.6 · total 153.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: South Florida 71.0, Coppin St 69.1 → 71.8 possessions

+7.5

South Florida offense vs Coppin St defense

+9.8

Coppin St offense vs South Florida defense

−11.7

Projected total

153.8

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

South Florida offense vs Coppin St defense

+9.8

Coppin St offense vs South Florida defense

+11.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

South Florida by 25.6

25.6

Coppin St side ◂▸ South Florida side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help South Florida.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, South Florida is the faster team (73.0, #12 of 365) and Coppin St the slower (69.0, #144). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

153.8

model

Projected team totals

64.1 / 89.7

Coppin St / South Florida

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.1#119

Coppin St

71.0#15

South Florida

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageCoppin St

Where Coppin St struggles: shooting

Coppin St shoots an effective 45.9% (#350); South Florida allows 48.8% (#58). Expect about 46.9%, 4.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.3 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversCoppin St

Coppin St turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 21.4% is worth roughly -5.7 points per 100 possessions against Coppin St's offense.

AdvantageSouth Florida

Where South Florida scores: the offensive glass

South Florida rebounds 38.1% of its own misses (#7); Coppin St lets opponents grab 34.8% of their own misses (#333). Expect about 37.9%, 7.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.6 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Track meet

South Florida averages 73.0 possessions per 40, Coppin St 69.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashSouth Florida

Style match: ball movement

South Florida assists on 58.4% of its made baskets; Coppin St allows assists on 62.5% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 62.9% — both habits push the same way.

DefenseSouth Florida

South Florida's ball-hawking

South Florida ranks #21 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.6% of Coppin St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Coppin St has the ball

OffenseSouth Florida allowsvs D1 avg

45.9% #350

48.8% #58

-6.3 pt/100

22.3% #363

19.1% #42

-5.7 pt/100

30.4% #183

31.9% #252

+0.5 pt/100

38.5% #90

39.1% #287

+0.5 pt/100

67.2% #342

—

-0.5 pt/100

Coppin St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -11.5 pts/100

South Florida has the ball

OffenseCoppin St allowsvs D1 avg

50.6% #209

55.4% #339

+2.5 pt/100

15.1% #74

17.5% #118

+0.6 pt/100

38.1% #7

34.8% #333

+4.6 pt/100

40.4% #55

42.9% #339

+0.9 pt/100

74.6% #101

—

+0.2 pt/100

South Florida net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Coppin Stoffense vsSouth Floridadefense

Share of shots by zone

Coppin St shoots

40.8

4.1

19.7

35.4

South Florida allows

35.9

8.0

16.8

39.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.4%#336	54.7%#57	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	28.1%#357	34.5%#52	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	29.7%#356	34.8%#69	38.0%
Three	30.7%#326	34.5%#218	33.7%

South Floridaoffense vsCoppin Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

South Florida shoots

46.7

5.1

4.1

44.1

Coppin St allows

38.8

3.0

14.9

43.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.0%#299	60.1%#231	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.8%#227	46.5%#327	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	25.0%#365	35.5%#91	38.0%
Three	32.5%#255	38.3%#360	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Coppin St

−5.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#353 of 365

Off reb %

30.4%

#183

Def reb %

65.2%

#333

Turnover %

22.3%

#363

Forced TO %

17.5%

#118

FT rate

38.5%

#90

FT allowed

42.9%

#339

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding−1.3

Ball security−3.8

Forcing turnovers+0.6

Foul shots drawn+0.9

Foul shots allowed−2.0

South Florida

+5.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#18 of 365

Off reb %

38.1%

Def reb %

68.1%

#252

Turnover %

15.1%

#74

Forced TO %

19.1%

#42

FT rate

40.4%

#55

FT allowed

39.1%

#287

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.5

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+1.7

Foul shots drawn+1.4

Foul shots allowed−1.0

South Florida has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.3 (#18 of 365) to Coppin St’s −5.6 (#353).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Coppin St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Coppin St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Hassan Perkins	G	Sr	6'0"	31-18	22.6	6.6	1.5	2.9	1.5	49.4%	37.2%	2.5	72.9%	19.5%
7	Khali Horton	F	Jr	6'8"	31-24	19.8	7.4	2.1	0.9	0.9	46.5%	36.2%	4.1	72.9%	24.2%
4	Hussain Williams	G	Jr	6'5"	31-7	19.8	7.3	2.4	0.8	1.0	42.8%	26.3%	4.4	71.7%	25.9%
11	Torrin Andrews	G	Sr	6'4"	31-12	19.1	5.3	1.5	1.6	1.8	49.6%	31.7%	2.6	78.0%	20.4%
14	Jamari Piercy	G	Jr	6'5"	31-11	18.3	6.8	2.3	0.8	1.5	47.9%	17.4%	1.5	47.4%	27.0%
6	Demariontay Hall	F	Sr	6'7"	22-21	22.0	10.6	5.4	0.5	2.1	52.4%	0.0%	0.1	55.0%	31.2%
33	Tyler Koenig	F	Jr	6'9"	28-21	16.9	5.3	3.8	0.4	1.0	49.1%	0.0%	0.0	73.6%	20.1%
24	Taj Thweatt	F	Sr	6'7"	23-3	17.8	6.0	4.3	0.4	1.3	47.4%	38.3%	2.0	80.6%	22.7%
0	Baasil Saunders	G	Jr	6'4"	26-16	15.5	3.2	1.9	0.7	1.0	41.8%	18.8%	0.6	63.2%	17.0%
21	Nelson Lamizana	F	Fr	6'9"	17-5	19.2	6.6	3.0	0.9	1.9	47.7%	26.1%	1.4	87.5%	23.9%
10	Camaren Sparrow	G	Jr	6'4"	16-3	19.2	5.7	3.8	1.5	1.8	42.0%	35.7%	0.9	65.1%	23.5%
23	Daveyon Lydner	G	Fr	6'4"	23-3	12.7	2.3	0.9	1.6	0.7	24.6%	17.6%	0.7	68.8%	18.2%
2	Favour Aire	C	Sr	6'11"	21-1	9.1	2.8	2.0	0.4	1.0	51.0%	41.7%	0.6	83.3%	22.6%
12	Chris Morgan	F	Sr	6'9"	13-10	13.5	4.5	3.0	0.6	1.0	38.5%	0.0%	0.2	40.0%	28.9%
3	Josiah Brown	G	So	6'5"	11-0	6.5	1.8	0.9	0.3	0.2	63.6%	0.0%	0.1	100.0%	12.0%
22	Elijah Taylor	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Macahi Nelson	G	Sr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

South Florida2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Wes Enis	G	Jr	6'2"	32-29	34.0	16.4	3.6	2.4	1.6	51.1%	35.2%	9.5	81.4%	27.1%
5	Joseph Pinion	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	30.2	14.6	3.9	2.4	1.5	52.2%	37.8%	8.6	78.7%	27.2%
8	Josh Omojafo	G	Sr	6'5"	34-32	27.2	11.3	5.3	1.7	1.2	50.2%	29.7%	2.2	78.2%	21.5%
11	CJ Brown	G	So	6'2"	34-34	26.6	10.9	3.9	4.7	2.0	40.7%	24.2%	1.9	72.7%	27.4%
3	Isaiah Jones	F	Sr	6'7"	34-1	15.8	4.5	3.0	0.4	0.3	53.0%	31.4%	2.5	82.9%	14.6%
6	Daimion Collins	F	Sr	6'9"	33-1	14.1	4.0	3.2	0.4	0.5	59.9%	15.8%	0.6	60.0%	15.0%
21	Adriel Nyorha	G	Fr	6'5"	26-2	11.0	3.7	1.7	2.0	1.2	44.8%	32.3%	1.2	67.9%	25.3%
9	Gavin Hightower	G	Fr	6'1"	26-0	10.2	4.1	1.7	1.7	1.2	53.5%	20.0%	0.2	67.4%	25.5%
4	Devin Haid	G	Sr	6'5"	23-0	10.0	3.3	2.0	0.8	0.3	47.7%	31.4%	1.5	93.3%	18.5%
7	Caleb Sanders	F	Fr	6'6"	10-2	8.2	3.1	1.6	0.8	0.4	52.8%	33.3%	0.9	66.7%	19.4%
0	Xavier Brown	G	Sr	6'2"	3-0	12.0	2.7	0.7	1.7	0.3	33.3%	33.3%	2.0	50.0%	16.3%
15	Onyx Nnani	F	Fr	6'9"	1-0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	De'Ante Green	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Coppin St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Coppin St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Hassan Perkins	G	Sr	6'0"	31-18	22.6	6.6	1.5	2.9	1.5	49.4%	37.2%	2.5	72.9%	19.5%
7	Khali Horton	F	Jr	6'8"	31-24	19.8	7.4	2.1	0.9	0.9	46.5%	36.2%	4.1	72.9%	24.2%
4	Hussain Williams	G	Jr	6'5"	31-7	19.8	7.3	2.4	0.8	1.0	42.8%	26.3%	4.4	71.7%	25.9%
11	Torrin Andrews	G	Sr	6'4"	31-12	19.1	5.3	1.5	1.6	1.8	49.6%	31.7%	2.6	78.0%	20.4%
14	Jamari Piercy	G	Jr	6'5"	31-11	18.3	6.8	2.3	0.8	1.5	47.9%	17.4%	1.5	47.4%	27.0%
6	Demariontay Hall	F	Sr	6'7"	22-21	22.0	10.6	5.4	0.5	2.1	52.4%	0.0%	0.1	55.0%	31.2%
33	Tyler Koenig	F	Jr	6'9"	28-21	16.9	5.3	3.8	0.4	1.0	49.1%	0.0%	0.0	73.6%	20.1%
24	Taj Thweatt	F	Sr	6'7"	23-3	17.8	6.0	4.3	0.4	1.3	47.4%	38.3%	2.0	80.6%	22.7%
0	Baasil Saunders	G	Jr	6'4"	26-16	15.5	3.2	1.9	0.7	1.0	41.8%	18.8%	0.6	63.2%	17.0%
21	Nelson Lamizana	F	Fr	6'9"	17-5	19.2	6.6	3.0	0.9	1.9	47.7%	26.1%	1.4	87.5%	23.9%
10	Camaren Sparrow	G	Jr	6'4"	16-3	19.2	5.7	3.8	1.5	1.8	42.0%	35.7%	0.9	65.1%	23.5%
23	Daveyon Lydner	G	Fr	6'4"	23-3	12.7	2.3	0.9	1.6	0.7	24.6%	17.6%	0.7	68.8%	18.2%
2	Favour Aire	C	Sr	6'11"	21-1	9.1	2.8	2.0	0.4	1.0	51.0%	41.7%	0.6	83.3%	22.6%
12	Chris Morgan	F	Sr	6'9"	13-10	13.5	4.5	3.0	0.6	1.0	38.5%	0.0%	0.2	40.0%	28.9%
3	Josiah Brown	G	So	6'5"	11-0	6.5	1.8	0.9	0.3	0.2	63.6%	0.0%	0.1	100.0%	12.0%
22	Elijah Taylor	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Macahi Nelson	G	Sr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Coppin St

Against the spread

Season

14-16

Home

3-5

Road

9-10

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +2.5

Covered the last gameCovered 6 of 10 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

19-11

Home

6-2

Road

11-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −3.0

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 10 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	Morgan StAdjEM #349	A	L 66–70	+6.5	W+2.5	150.5	U136	95.9	101.7	68.8
Mar 2	HowardAdjEM #160	A	L 70–90	+18.5	L−1.5	140.0	O160	98.9	127.2	70.8
Feb 28	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	H	L 69–75	+8.0	W+2.0	141.5	O144	104.5	113.6	66.0
Feb 21	MD EasternAdjEM #345	H	W 71–65 OT	+3.0	W+9.0	127.0	O136	96.4	88.3	73.6
Feb 16	SC StateAdjEM #357	A	W 59–57	+5.0	W+7.0	139.0	U116	87.6	84.6	67.4
Feb 14	NC CentralAdjEM #346	A	W 58–56	+11.0	W+13.0	145.5	U114	92.8	89.6	62.5
Feb 7	Delaware StAdjEM #358	H	W 65–47	+1.0	W+19.0	133.5	U112	97.8	70.7	66.4
Feb 2	HowardAdjEM #160	H	L 53–72	+14.0	L−5.0	146.5	U125	85.8	116.6	61.8
Jan 31	Morgan StAdjEM #349	H	L 80–89	+2.5	L−6.5	155.5	O169	105.5	117.4	75.8
Jan 24	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	A	L 76–103	+12.5	L−14.5	141.5	O179	94.7	128.4	80.2

South Florida

Against the spread

Season

18-14-1

Home

9-5

Road

7-5

Last 10

7-2-1

avg cover +5.6

Covered 7 of 9 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-18

Home

5-9

Road

7-5

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −9.3

Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 9 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#6LouisvilleAdjEM #14	N	L 79–83	+4.0	P0.0	160.0	O162	105.0	110.3	75.2
Mar 15	Wichita StAdjEM #60	N	W 70–55	−6.0	W+9.0	150.5	U125	102.6	80.6	68.2
Mar 14	CharlotteAdjEM #193	N	W 86–64	−15.5	W+6.5	153.5	U150	125.1	93.1	68.7
Mar 8	CharlotteAdjEM #193	H	W 83–60	−17.5	W+5.5	155.5	U143	125.9	91.0	65.9
Mar 5	MemphisAdjEM #152	A	W 96–89	−7.5	L−0.5	161.5	O185	123.8	114.8	77.5
Mar 1	TulaneAdjEM #239	H	W 90–62	−15.0	W+13.0	154.5	U152	123.5	85.1	72.8
Feb 25	RiceAdjEM #255	A	W 75–56	−11.0	W+8.0	157.0	U131	107.8	80.5	69.6
Feb 19	MemphisAdjEM #152	H	W 87–66	−9.5	W+11.5	163.5	U153	124.2	94.2	70.1
Feb 15	FAUAdjEM #122	A	W 83–81 OT	−5.0	L−3.0	166.5	U164	108.3	105.7	76.6
Feb 11	Wichita StAdjEM #60	A	W 66–58	−2.0	W+6.0	160.0	U124	95.1	83.5	69.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Coppin StSouth Florida

Efficiency

97.4

114.7

115.9

103.3

69.1

71.0

—

Shooting

45.9%

50.6%

45.8%

52.0%

30.7%

32.5%

67.2%

74.6%

38.5%

40.4%

Ball control & glass

22.3%

15.1%

17.5%

19.1%

30.4%

38.1%

34.8%

31.9%

13.0%

8.6%

12.0%

13.1%

Style

35.2%

43.8%

43.2%

43.5%

13.9%

16.5%

51.5%

58.4%

49.2%

29.9%

Roster

3.20

3.18

6'5.6"

6'4.3"

—

84.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Coppin St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Coppin St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

South Florida

Returning minutes: 84.4%Returning production: 76.6%

Lost

Izaiyah Nelson 27.3 mpg, 15.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tristan Beckford 4.4 mpg, 1.6 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green

Added

De'Ante Green no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Nov 12	2025-26	Coppin St 50 – 100 South Florida

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.