CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceReilly Center, Saint Bonaventure, NY
Lafayette
Efficiency #319
2025-26: 11-21 · 8-11 conf
@
St Bonaventure
Efficiency #138
2025-26: 17-17 · 6-15 conf
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
69.2
win 17%
Projected
80.4
win 83%
No line posted yet.
Model: SBU −11.3 · total 149.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: St Bonaventure 68.2, Lafayette 68.0 → 67.8 possessions
−1.1
St Bonaventure offense vs Lafayette defense
+4.9
Lafayette offense vs St Bonaventure defense
−2.4
Projected total
149.6
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
St Bonaventure offense vs Lafayette defense
+4.9
Lafayette offense vs St Bonaventure defense
+2.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
St Bonaventure by 11.3
11.3
Lafayette side ◂▸ St Bonaventure side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +11.2 against +11.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help St Bonaventure.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, St Bonaventure is the faster team (67.5, #222 of 365) and Lafayette the slower (66.9, #248). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.6
model
Projected team totals
69.2 / 80.4
Lafayette / St Bonaventure
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#214
Lafayette
68.2#194
St Bonaventure

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
DefenseSt Bonaventure
St Bonaventure's shot-blocking
St Bonaventure ranks #24 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.4% of Lafayette's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageSt Bonaventure
Where St Bonaventure scores: shooting
St Bonaventure shoots an effective 52.4% (#129); Lafayette allows 53.6% (#286). Expect about 53.1%, 1.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageLafayette
Where Lafayette struggles: the offensive glass
Lafayette rebounds 25.8% of its own misses (#326); St Bonaventure lets opponents grab 29.8% of their own misses (#150). Expect about 26.9%, 3.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (St Bonaventure) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Lafayette at about 40.6% of its shots from three, St Bonaventure about 32.0%.
Lafayette has the ball
OffenseSt Bonaventure allowsvs D1 avg
49.3% #278
53.3% #278
-0.2 pt/100
15.3% #90
17.1% #146
+0.8 pt/100
25.8% #326
29.8% #150
-2.1 pt/100
32.4% #249
33.9% #147
-0.2 pt/100
68.9% #303
—
-0.3 pt/100
Lafayette net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.1 pts/100
St Bonaventure has the ball
OffenseLafayette allowsvs D1 avg
52.4% #129
53.6% #286
+2.6 pt/100
16.8% #191
15.1% #276
+1.2 pt/100
34.5% #60
28.6% #88
+1.2 pt/100
30.0% #310
30.6% #76
-0.6 pt/100
74.7% #98
—
+0.2 pt/100
St Bonaventure net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Lafayetteoffense vsSt Bonaventuredefense
Share of shots by zone
Lafayette shoots
St Bonaventure allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#23157.6%#13558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.7%#15231.9%#2139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)32.9%#33145.6%#35338.0%
Three32.2%#27336.0%#29933.7%
St Bonaventureoffense vsLafayettedefense
Share of shots by zone
St Bonaventure shoots
Lafayette allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.2%#18662.6%#31458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)44.6%#7141.5%#22439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.6%#16337.7%#15238.0%
Three37.4%#2236.0%#29833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Lafayette
−0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#194 of 365
Off reb %
25.8%
#326
Def reb %
71.4%
#88
Turnover %
15.3%
#90
Forced TO %
15.1%
#276
FT rate
32.4%
#249
FT allowed
30.6%
#76
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.5
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−0.7
Foul shots allowed+1.2
St Bonaventure
+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#147 of 365
Off reb %
34.5%
#60
Def reb %
70.2%
#150
Turnover %
16.8%
#191
Forced TO %
17.1%
#146
FT rate
30.0%
#310
FT allowed
33.9%
#147
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.3
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+0.3

St Bonaventure has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.8 (#147 of 365) to Lafayette’s −0.4 (#194).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Lafayette2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
21Andrew PhillipsGSo6'4"32-3233.413.94.61.31.148.1%31.1%6.571.3%26.3%
1Caleb WilliamsGFr6'0"31-3132.716.13.63.22.248.3%33.2%7.487.9%31.1%
22Christian Humphrey-RembertFFr—32-3130.17.76.60.50.752.4%37.2%4.966.0%15.6%
44Shareef JacksonFFr6'8"30-3022.110.05.01.62.157.1%0.0%0.152.4%29.6%
0Ryan PettitGJr6'2"28-320.85.63.31.50.752.0%25.0%1.458.3%16.9%
13Misha BednostinCSo6'11"28-010.01.41.90.80.657.7%—0.055.6%11.1%
2KaiMani MurdockGSo6'6"25-010.63.01.60.40.349.3%33.3%2.533.3%19.1%
34Luke BevilacquaFFr6'11"25-19.12.81.60.51.158.5%—0.055.0%22.1%
24Folabomi FayemiGFr6'4"16-06.11.30.80.00.331.5%16.7%0.444.4%21.2%
23Joshua WycheGSo6'7"11-06.90.61.60.30.237.5%0.0%0.225.0%9.7%
20Ashton WallaceGFr6'3"11-04.10.60.90.40.425.0%0.0%0.3100.0%21.0%
14Malik RasulFFr6'7"7-06.01.31.40.30.642.9%0.0%0.150.0%18.4%
11Luke AzzinaroFFr6'5"6-02.80.70.50.00.233.3%0.0%0.5—23.1%
3Beckett CurrieGFr5'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
22Chris RubayoFSr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Justin Vander BaanCSr7'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
99Luka SavicevicGSr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
9TJ BergerGSr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
LafayetteSt Bonaventure
Efficiency
103.4
111.7
112.5
110.0
68.0
68.2
—
—
Shooting
49.3%
52.4%
50.0%
50.8%
32.2%
37.4%
68.9%
74.7%
32.4%
30.0%
Ball control & glass
15.3%
16.8%
15.1%
17.1%
25.8%
34.5%
28.6%
29.8%
7.9%
9.4%
10.5%
8.0%
Style
39.8%
31.3%
46.1%
46.6%
9.7%
17.3%
55.4%
55.2%
24.7%
21.8%
Roster
1.53
3.46
6'4.4"
6'4.2"
83.1%
94.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Lafayette
Returning minutes: 83.1%Returning production: 82.8%
Lost
  • Mark Butler 33.9 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Rider
Added
  • Justin Vander Baan no D1 minutes last season
  • Beckett Currie no D1 minutes last season
  • TJ Berger no D1 minutes last season
  • Chris Rubayo no D1 minutes last season
  • Luka Savicevic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

St Bonaventure
Returning minutes: 94.2%Returning production: 92.5%
Lost
  • Andrew Osasuyi 11.6 mpg, 3.6 ppg · transferred to Georgia
Added
  • John Ikpotokin no D1 minutes last season
  • Brayden Jackson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 94% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.