Howard Bison vs Davidson Wildcats basketball preview & prediction
Sat, Nov 14 · 7:00 PM ET · John M. Belk Arena, Davidson, NC
Non-conferenceESPN+John M. Belk Arena, Davidson, NC
Howard
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #170
@
Davidson
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #97
Sat, Nov 14 · 7:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Howard is the faster team (71.8, #145 of 365) and Davidson the slower (66.3, #304). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.8
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.9#160
Howard
67.5#342
Davidson
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Davidson has the ball+7.2
Howard has the ball−0.8
Davidson has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 61.0% #30 · HOW allows 49.5% #158+5.6
✓Wins second chancesOR% 32.3% #162 · HOW allows 40.4% #317+2.0
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 18.7% #348 · HOW allows 36.6% #183 · FT 60.9% #302−1.3
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 14.3% #67 · HOW forces 20.0% #110 · ~12 turnovers+0.9
Howard has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 48.4% #207 · DAV allows 45.0% #81−3.7
✓Wins second chancesOR% 38.9% #55 · DAV allows 32.5% #207+2.3
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 19.5% #229 · DAV forces 13.6% #299 · ~11 turnovers+1.9
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 36.8% #177 · DAV allows 20.0% #20 · FT 61.8% #291−1.4
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootHowardoffense vsDavidsondefense
Share of shots by zone
Howard shoots
48.2
9.4
7.1
35.3
Davidson allows
35.0
10.6
17.9
36.6
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.1%#209 | 51.2%#91 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 18.8%#292 | 38.5%#187 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 41.7%#109 | 31.8%#154 | 34.7% |
| Three | 30.9%#212 | 30.6%#140 | 32.5% |
Davidsonoffense vsHowarddefense
Share of shots by zone
Davidson shoots
29.3
19.8
15.5
35.3
Howard allows
35.2
6.7
16.8
41.3
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 67.6%#75 | 54.0%#129 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.8%#121 | 41.7%#215 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 55.6%#36 | 43.3%#250 | 34.7% |
| Three | 44.4%#21 | 34.7%#220 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineHoward
+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#171 of 365
Off reb %
38.9%
#55
Def reb %
59.6%
#317
Turnover %
19.5%
#229
Forced TO %
20.0%
#110
FT rate
36.8%
#177
FT allowed
36.6%
#183
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.5
Defensive rebounding−2.9
Ball security−0.9
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.4
Davidson
−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#184 of 365
Off reb %
32.3%
#162
Def reb %
67.5%
#207
Turnover %
14.3%
#67
Forced TO %
13.6%
#299
FT rate
18.7%
#348
FT allowed
20.0%
#20
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security+2.8
Forcing turnovers−3.2
Foul shots drawn−4.9
Foul shots allowed+4.7
Howard has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.2 (#171 of 365) to Davidson’s −0.6 (#184).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notHoward2026-27 numbers · last game: Penn, Nov 9
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | G | Sr | 5'11" | 3-3 | 36.3 | 34 | — | Started last | 16.7 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 67.9% | 61.5% | 4.3 | 63.2% | 23.6% | |
| 12 | G | Sr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 31.3 | 37 | — | Started last | 16.7 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 46.3% | 33.3% | 4.0 | 70.6% | 36.9% | |
| 13 | C | Jr | 6'10" | 3-3 | 25.3 | 26 | — | Started last | 9.0 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 52.2% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 37.5% | 22.0% | |
| 4 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 3-3 | 23.0 | 18 | — | Started last | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 22.7% | 11.8% | 5.7 | 50.0% | 22.0% | |
| 8 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 3-0 | 22.3 | 19 | — | Bench | 7.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 40.4% | 23.1% | 4.3 | 66.7% | 23.8% | |
| 1 | F | Fr | 6'7" | 3-0 | 22.0 | 32 | — | Bench | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 79.4% | 75.0% | 1.3 | 33.3% | 16.0% | |
| 6 | C | So | 6'10" | 3-3 | 21.0 | 17 | — | Started last | 4.3 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 100.0% | 18.1% | |
| 10 | G | So | 6'3" | 3-0 | 6.0 | 3 | — | Bench | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 15.8% | |
| 3 | G | So | 6'0" | 3-0 | 5.7 | 10 | — | Bench | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 43.8% | 50.0% | 0.7 | 66.7% | 35.9% | |
| 21 | F | Jr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 5.5 | 2 | — | Bench | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 9.6% | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'1" | 2-0 | 3.0 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 39.3% | |
| 7 | F | So | 6'9" | 1-0 | 3.0 | — | — | Active | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 34.4% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesHoward
Against the spread
Season
1-2
Home
0-0
Road
1-2
Last 10
1-2
avg cover −2.8
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-2
Home
0-0
Road
1-2
Last 10
1-2
avg vs total −1.2
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Penn | A | L 65–78 | +6.0 | L−7.0 | 155.0 | U143 | 84.7 | 101.6 | 76.8 |
| Nov 5 | Alcorn St | A | W 94–83 | −9.5 | W+1.5 | 149.5 | O177 | 129.6 | 114.5 | 72.5 |
| Nov 2 | Yale | A | L 62–72 | +7.0 | L−3.0 | 153.0 | U134 | 93.9 | 109.0 | 66.0 |
| Mar 19 | #1Michigan | N | L 80–101 | +31.0 | W+10.0 | 151.5 | O181 | 112.2 | 141.7 | 71.3 |
| Mar 17 | #16UMBC | N | W 86–83 | +1.0 | W+4.0 | 142.5 | O169 | 123.5 | 119.2 | 69.6 |
| Mar 14 | NC Central | N | W 70–63 | −11.5 | L−4.5 | 143.5 | U133 | 112.4 | 101.2 | 62.3 |
| Mar 13 | SC State | N | W 78–61 | −15.5 | W+1.5 | 146.0 | U139 | 105.9 | 82.8 | 73.6 |
| Mar 5 | Norfolk St | A | W 84–76 | −6.5 | W+1.5 | 148.5 | O160 | 121.4 | 109.8 | 69.2 |
| Mar 2 | Coppin St | H | W 90–70 | −18.5 | W+1.5 | 140.0 | O160 | 127.2 | 98.9 | 70.8 |
| Feb 28 | Morgan St | A | W 84–59 | −9.5 | W+15.5 | 158.0 | U143 | 116.6 | 81.9 | 72.0 |
Davidson
Against the spread
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
2-0
avg cover +9.2
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
1-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +2.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | Bradley | H | W 62–45 | −9.5 | W+7.5 | 138.5 | U107 | 91.3 | 66.3 | 67.9 |
| Nov 7 | Mercer | H | W 88–76 | −11.5 | W+0.5 | 148.0 | O164 | 133.0 | 114.8 | 66.2 |
| Nov 2 | Washington St | A | W 76–61 | +3.0 | W+18.0 | 149.0 | U137 | 114.4 | 91.8 | 66.5 |
| Mar 17 | Oklahoma St | A | L 80–84 | +6.5 | W+2.5 | 154.0 | O164 | 109.2 | 114.6 | 73.3 |
| Mar 13 | Saint Joseph's | N | L 58–70 | +2.0 | L−10.0 | 132.5 | U128 | 95.0 | 114.6 | 61.1 |
| Mar 12 | Loyola Chicago | N | W 64–59 OT | −5.5 | L−0.5 | 132.5 | U123 | 96.6 | 89.0 | 66.3 |
| Mar 7 | St Bonaventure | A | W 68–63 | +5.0 | W+10.0 | 142.0 | U131 | 106.0 | 98.2 | 64.2 |
| Mar 4 | Saint Joseph's | H | L 67–70 | −2.5 | L−5.5 | 137.0 | P137 | 102.1 | 106.7 | 65.6 |
| Mar 1 | La Salle | H | W 71–64 | −11.0 | L−4.0 | 133.5 | O135 | 105.3 | 95.0 | 67.4 |
| Feb 25 | Duquesne | A | W 67–56 | +3.5 | W+14.5 | 143.0 | U123 | 102.2 | 85.4 | 65.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeHowardDavidson
Efficiency
104.0
109.2
104.7
102.8
70.9
67.5
-3.7
-2.9
Shooting
48.4%
61.0%
49.6%
57.7%
30.9%
44.4%
61.8%
60.9%
36.8%
18.7%
Ball control & glass
19.5%
14.3%
20.0%
13.6%
38.9%
32.3%
40.4%
32.5%
8.4%
8.3%
12.0%
5.1%
Style
36.8%
36.6%
48.0%
41.5%
18.1%
5.5%
51.9%
47.7%
31.4%
22.3%
Roster
3.07
2.73
6'5.6"
6'5.7"
51.3%
44.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputHoward
Returning minutes: 64.9%Returning production: 61.7%
Lost
- Bryce Harris 32.3 mpg, 17.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Travelle Bryson 16.5 mpg, 7.8 ppg · transferred to W Carolina
- Danas Kazakevicius 14.1 mpg, 3.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ed Holland III 6.6 mpg, 1.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Stefan Isailovic 1.0 mpg, 0.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Josiah Lawson new to D1 · 27.0 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
- Gasper Kocevar from Fresno St · 10.9 mpg, 2.7 ppg last season
- James Brown from North Carolina · 1.5 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
- Drew Harris no D1 minutes last season
Returns 65% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5.
Davidson
Returning minutes: 45.0%Returning production: 43.3%
Lost
- Parker Friedrichsen 25.3 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Washington
- Devin Brown 23.4 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Notre Dame
- Roberts Blums 21.0 mpg, 11.7 ppg · transferred to Penn State
- Hunter Adam 15.2 mpg, 5.5 ppg · transferred to Portland
- Sean Logan 12.0 mpg, 2.9 ppg · transferred to Saint Joseph's
- Manie Joses 8.6 mpg, 1.7 ppg · transferred to Hawai'i
Added
- Nick Janowski from St Thomas · 31.5 mpg, 16.1 ppg last season
- Jackson Keith from Butler · 7.0 mpg, 1.6 ppg last season
- Honor Withers Carello no D1 minutes last season
- Eetu Heinonen no D1 minutes last season
- Quadri Bashiru no D1 minutes last season
- John Carter Jr. no D1 minutes last season
Returns 45% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (3 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Sat, Nov 14
- UNC Greensboro at Cornell · 11:00 AM ET
- Tulane at Akron · 12:00 PM ET
- St Thomas at Army · 1:00 PM ET
- Stonehill at Texas Tech · 1:00 PM ET
- Bradley vs George Mason · 1:00 PM ET
- Towson vs Morgan St · 1:00 PM ET
- Montana at North Dakota · 1:00 PM ET
- Drexel at Maine · 1:00 PM ET
- Loyola Chicago at Colorado St · 1:30 PM ET
- Miami OH at Evansville · 2:00 PM ET
- Gardner-Webb at South Carolina · 2:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at South Florida · 2:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Bellarmine · 2:00 PM ET
- Rice at SF Austin · 2:00 PM ET
- The Citadel at North Florida · 2:00 PM ET
- Wofford at Queens · 2:00 PM ET
- Jackson St at Winthrop · 2:30 PM ET
- C Michigan at N Kentucky · 3:30 PM ET
- LSU at Gonzaga · 3:30 PM ET
- Southern Utah at Wake Forest · 4:00 PM ET
- Lafayette at St Bonaventure · 4:00 PM ET
- Air Force at Pacific · 4:00 PM ET
- Delaware St at East Carolina · 4:00 PM ET
- UNC Asheville at Georgia Tech · 4:00 PM ET
- Hampton at Navy · 4:00 PM ET
- Longwood at Old Dominion · 4:00 PM ET
- Wyoming at Denver · 4:00 PM ET
- S Dakota St vs N Colorado · 4:00 PM ET
- Toledo at Detroit Mercy · 4:00 PM ET
- SC Upstate at Campbell · 4:30 PM ET
- Utah Tech at California · 5:00 PM ET
- Northern Iowa at Oakland · 5:00 PM ET
- Colorado at Providence · 6:00 PM ET
- Manhattan at Le Moyne · 6:00 PM ET
- Marshall at Youngstown St · 6:00 PM ET
- South Alabama at North Texas · 6:00 PM ET
- UC Riverside at Fresno St · 6:00 PM ET
- Penn at Saint Joseph's · 6:30 PM ET
- Brown at Siena · 7:00 PM ET
- West Georgia at Charleston So · 7:00 PM ET
- Austin Peay at Wichita St · 7:00 PM ET
- UAB at Jax State · 7:00 PM ET
- Lipscomb at W Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at Fairfield · 7:00 PM ET
- Portland St at San Francisco · 7:00 PM ET
- Washington at Utah · 7:00 PM ET
- Rider at Villanova · 7:00 PM ET
- UT Rio Grande at UT Arlington · 7:00 PM ET
- Louisiana at UNC Wilmington · 7:00 PM ET
- Cincinnati at Dayton · 7:30 PM ET
- Binghamton at Duquesne · 7:30 PM ET
- IU Indy at Morehead St · 7:30 PM ET
- UL Monroe at Grand Canyon · 8:00 PM ET
- UC Davis at Sacramento St · 8:00 PM ET
- Louisiana Tech at Nicholls · 8:00 PM ET
- N'Western St at Little Rock · 8:00 PM ET
- Furman at Belmont · 8:30 PM ET
- Utah Valley at Nevada · 10:00 PM ET
- Idaho St at Seattle U · 10:00 PM ET
- New Mexico at Santa Clara · 10:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
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