CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMichael J. Hagan '85 Arena, Philadelphia, PA

Penn

Efficiency #162

2025-26: 18-12 · 11-5 conf

Saint Joseph's

Efficiency #118

2025-26: 24-12 · 14-6 conf

Sat, Nov 14 · 6:30 PM ET

70.5

win 32%

Projected

75.8

win 68%

No line posted yet.

Model: JOES −5.3 · total 146.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Saint Joseph's 68.8, Penn 69.3 → 69.8 possessions

+3.2

Saint Joseph's offense vs Penn defense

−1.9

Penn offense vs Saint Joseph's defense

−3.2

Projected total

146.3

Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Saint Joseph's offense vs Penn defense

−1.9

Penn offense vs Saint Joseph's defense

+3.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Saint Joseph's by 5.3

5.3

Penn side ◂▸ Saint Joseph's side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Saint Joseph's.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Penn is the faster team (68.7, #163 of 365) and Saint Joseph's the slower (68.2, #192). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

146.3

model

Projected team totals

70.5 / 75.8

Penn / Saint Joseph's

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.3#95

Penn

68.8#137

Saint Joseph's

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantagePenn

Where Penn struggles: shooting

Penn shoots an effective 50.4% (#223); Saint Joseph's allows 47.7% (#34). Expect about 48.9%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversPenn

Penn protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.8% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for Penn's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Saint Joseph's, Penn) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Penn at about 36.7% of its shots from three, Saint Joseph's about 44.1%.

ClashPenn

Strength vs strength: 3-point shooting

Penn (#13 in 3-point shooting) against Saint Joseph's (#51 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.5%. Historically Penn's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.25 vs 0.16).

Penn has the ball

OffenseSaint Joseph's allowsvs D1 avg

50.4% #223

47.7% #34

-3.4 pt/100

15.3% #89

15.0% #286

+2.4 pt/100

30.0% #200

30.6% #185

-0.1 pt/100

33.9% #212

26.9% #20

-0.7 pt/100

69.4% #285

—

-0.3 pt/100

Penn net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.1 pts/100

Saint Joseph's has the ball

OffensePenn allowsvs D1 avg

49.2% #284

52.1% #218

-1.2 pt/100

16.8% #182

17.3% #131

-0.4 pt/100

31.4% #147

31.3% #220

+0.7 pt/100

29.7% #318

27.5% #28

-0.9 pt/100

73.8% #138

—

+0.1 pt/100

Saint Joseph's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Pennoffense vsSaint Joseph'sdefense

Share of shots by zone

Penn shoots

36.7

5.6

22.4

35.4

Saint Joseph's allows

33.5

7.3

19.5

39.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.4%#331	52.6%#21	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.2%#286	41.5%#226	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.7%#196	38.3%#168	38.0%
Three	38.3%#13	31.7%#51	33.7%

Saint Joseph'soffense vsPenndefense

Share of shots by zone

Saint Joseph's shoots

40.1

4.5

11.0

44.5

Penn allows

40.5

6.0

14.1

39.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.2%#189	61.3%#278	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.7%#273	46.0%#320	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.0%#312	38.0%#160	38.0%
Three	30.8%#325	32.2%#73	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Penn

+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#63 of 365

Off reb %

30.0%

#200

Def reb %

68.7%

#220

Turnover %

15.3%

#89

Forced TO %

17.3%

#131

FT rate

33.9%

#212

FT allowed

27.5%

#28

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers+0.4

Foul shots drawn−0.3

Foul shots allowed+2.0

Saint Joseph's

0.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#181 of 365

Off reb %

31.4%

#147

Def reb %

69.4%

#185

Turnover %

16.8%

#182

Forced TO %

15.0%

#286

FT rate

29.7%

#318

FT allowed

26.9%

#20

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed+2.1

Penn has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#63 of 365) to Saint Joseph's’s 0.0 (#181).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Penn2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	TJ Power	F	Jr	6'9"	30-30	35.1	16.4	7.6	2.4	2.1	55.3%	43.2%	6.1	64.9%	27.5%
7	Michael Zanoni	F	Sr	6'5"	30-30	28.8	11.8	2.0	0.7	0.5	53.1%	38.7%	4.7	92.0%	22.1%
0	AJ Levine	G	So	6'0"	30-30	24.3	8.2	3.2	4.0	2.0	46.2%	27.5%	2.3	63.4%	24.7%
25	Augustus Gerhart	F	Jr	6'9"	30-30	19.8	5.5	4.7	1.0	0.9	62.4%	0.0%	0.0	63.6%	15.3%
30	Lucas Lueth	F	So	6'7"	28-1	16.7	3.3	3.0	0.6	0.5	43.5%	22.6%	1.1	37.9%	15.0%
5	Cam Thrower	G	Sr	6'3"	27-6	17.0	6.0	1.6	1.3	1.1	47.8%	41.9%	2.3	86.8%	23.1%
13	Dalton Scantlebury	C	Fr	6'9"	29-0	15.5	5.9	3.9	0.6	0.8	51.2%	—	0.0	62.3%	23.2%
4	Jay Jones	G	Fr	6'4"	27-0	13.7	3.9	2.3	1.2	0.7	48.0%	38.9%	0.7	58.9%	18.8%
35	Niklas Polonowski	F	Jr	6'6"	23-0	6.0	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.1	40.3%	31.8%	1.0	63.6%	15.6%
2	Dylan Williams	G	Sr	5'11"	7-0	8.7	2.1	1.0	1.6	1.0	40.6%	25.0%	0.6	33.3%	24.9%
11	Alex Massung	G	So	6'4"	10-0	5.5	1.7	0.6	0.7	0.5	35.7%	—	0.0	70.0%	24.2%
33	Michelangelo Oberti	C	So	6'10"	12-0	4.4	1.8	1.2	0.1	0.3	69.2%	—	0.0	80.0%	20.8%
3	Johnnie Walter	F	Sr	6'10"	5-0	5.2	1.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.6	—	11.2%
21	Payton Kamin	F	Fr	6'7"	4-0	3.5	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	40.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	18.4%
40	William Kruse	F	Fr	6'11"	3-0	4.0	1.7	2.0	0.0	0.0	125.0%	100.0%	0.3	—	8.7%
15	Bradyn Foster	F	So	6'8"	1-0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
34	Chris Ubochi	C	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Ryan Altman	F	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Saint Joseph's2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Derek Simpson	G	Sr	6'3"	36-36	33.9	13.8	5.3	5.2	2.1	49.1%	31.5%	5.0	91.7%	25.5%
11	Jaiden Glover-Toscano	G	So	6'6"	34-34	31.4	15.7	4.8	1.0	1.4	52.2%	34.6%	7.6	72.8%	29.4%
7	Dasear Haskins	G	So	6'8"	36-36	27.7	11.1	6.4	1.4	1.2	53.8%	29.9%	3.5	67.6%	23.6%
13	Austin Williford	G	Fr	6'4"	36-19	26.2	7.8	4.7	1.4	1.2	47.5%	33.6%	4.0	69.8%	20.4%
22	Justice Ajogbor	C	Sr	6'10"	36-33	26.0	6.5	4.9	1.3	0.8	66.4%	—	0.0	60.0%	13.0%
5	Anthony Finkley	F	Jr	6'7"	35-13	19.0	5.4	3.3	1.6	1.3	38.2%	28.8%	3.2	80.8%	22.2%
3	Khaafiq Myers	G	Fr	5'10"	34-0	15.8	5.1	2.9	2.3	1.1	42.8%	25.0%	1.8	60.6%	25.4%
23	Mekai Johnson	G	So	6'5"	17-0	4.2	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.1	52.9%	18.2%	0.6	100.0%	15.8%
21	Al Amadou	F	So	6'9"	11-0	6.3	1.4	0.8	0.3	0.5	54.5%	0.0%	0.2	42.9%	15.9%
15	Steven Solano	C	So	7'0"	8-0	4.1	1.9	1.3	0.1	0.5	77.8%	—	0.0	50.0%	23.8%
24	Will Lange	G	Jr	6'4"	5-0	3.4	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.2	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	100.0%	15.6%
20	Billy Rayer	G	So	5'11"	6-0	2.0	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	18.4%
6	Owen Verna	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Penn2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	TJ Power	F	Jr	6'9"	30-30	35.1	16.4	7.6	2.4	2.1	55.3%	43.2%	6.1	64.9%	27.5%
7	Michael Zanoni	F	Sr	6'5"	30-30	28.8	11.8	2.0	0.7	0.5	53.1%	38.7%	4.7	92.0%	22.1%
0	AJ Levine	G	So	6'0"	30-30	24.3	8.2	3.2	4.0	2.0	46.2%	27.5%	2.3	63.4%	24.7%
25	Augustus Gerhart	F	Jr	6'9"	30-30	19.8	5.5	4.7	1.0	0.9	62.4%	0.0%	0.0	63.6%	15.3%
30	Lucas Lueth	F	So	6'7"	28-1	16.7	3.3	3.0	0.6	0.5	43.5%	22.6%	1.1	37.9%	15.0%
5	Cam Thrower	G	Sr	6'3"	27-6	17.0	6.0	1.6	1.3	1.1	47.8%	41.9%	2.3	86.8%	23.1%
13	Dalton Scantlebury	C	Fr	6'9"	29-0	15.5	5.9	3.9	0.6	0.8	51.2%	—	0.0	62.3%	23.2%
4	Jay Jones	G	Fr	6'4"	27-0	13.7	3.9	2.3	1.2	0.7	48.0%	38.9%	0.7	58.9%	18.8%
35	Niklas Polonowski	F	Jr	6'6"	23-0	6.0	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.1	40.3%	31.8%	1.0	63.6%	15.6%
2	Dylan Williams	G	Sr	5'11"	7-0	8.7	2.1	1.0	1.6	1.0	40.6%	25.0%	0.6	33.3%	24.9%
11	Alex Massung	G	So	6'4"	10-0	5.5	1.7	0.6	0.7	0.5	35.7%	—	0.0	70.0%	24.2%
33	Michelangelo Oberti	C	So	6'10"	12-0	4.4	1.8	1.2	0.1	0.3	69.2%	—	0.0	80.0%	20.8%
3	Johnnie Walter	F	Sr	6'10"	5-0	5.2	1.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.6	—	11.2%
21	Payton Kamin	F	Fr	6'7"	4-0	3.5	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	40.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	18.4%
40	William Kruse	F	Fr	6'11"	3-0	4.0	1.7	2.0	0.0	0.0	125.0%	100.0%	0.3	—	8.7%
15	Bradyn Foster	F	So	6'8"	1-0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
34	Chris Ubochi	C	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Ryan Altman	F	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Penn

Against the spread

Season

20-9

Home

8-5

Road

10-3

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +5.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

8-21

Home

1-12

Road

5-8

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −3.2

Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#3IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	L 70–105	+25.5	L−9.5	151.0	O175	103.0	154.5	68.0
Mar 15	YaleAdjEM #57	N	W 88–84 OT	+9.5	W+13.5	144.0	O172	121.7	116.1	72.3
Mar 14	HarvardAdjEM #133	N	W 62–60 OT	+3.5	W+5.5	139.0	U122	88.7	85.9	69.9
Mar 6	BrownAdjEM #275	A	W 82–61	+1.0	W+22.0	147.0	U143	114.2	84.9	71.8
Feb 28	HarvardAdjEM #133	H	W 64–61	+1.0	W+4.0	139.5	U125	89.5	85.3	71.5
Feb 27	DartmouthAdjEM #254	H	W 80–71	−6.5	W+2.5	153.5	U151	115.6	102.6	69.2
Feb 21	YaleAdjEM #57	A	L 70–74	+8.5	W+4.5	149.5	U144	105.1	111.1	66.6
Feb 14	CornellAdjEM #135	H	W 82–76	+3.0	W+9.0	170.0	U158	107.6	99.7	76.2
Feb 13	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	H	W 76–67	−2.0	W+7.0	148.0	U143	108.0	95.2	70.4
Feb 7	PrincetonAdjEM #251	H	W 61–60	−3.5	L−2.5	145.0	U121	104.5	102.8	58.4

Saint Joseph's

Against the spread

Season

20-14

Home

8-6

Road

10-6

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +5.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

10-23-1

Home

7-7

Road

3-12-1

Last 10

2-7-1

avg vs total −2.6

Under 5 straightOver in 1 of 7 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 24	New MexicoAdjEM #42	A	L 69–84	+10.5	L−4.5	155.0	U153	93.5	113.9	73.8
Mar 22	CaliforniaAdjEM #79	A	W 76–75	+5.5	W+6.5	151.5	U151	111.9	110.4	67.9
Mar 18	Colorado StAdjEM #88	A	W 69–64	+6.0	W+11.0	145.5	U133	103.0	95.5	67.0
Mar 14	VCUAdjEM #39	N	L 64–77	+6.5	L−6.5	146.0	U141	98.4	118.4	65.0
Mar 13	DavidsonAdjEM #112	N	W 70–58	−2.0	W+10.0	132.5	U128	114.6	95.0	61.1
Mar 7	La SalleAdjEM #256	H	W 88–76	−10.5	W+1.5	142.5	O164	128.0	110.5	68.8
Mar 4	DavidsonAdjEM #112	A	W 70–67	+2.5	W+5.5	137.0	P137	106.7	102.1	65.6
Feb 28	Rhode IslandAdjEM #137	A	W 61–55	+2.0	W+8.0	141.0	U116	86.8	78.3	70.3
Feb 25	George MasonAdjEM #83	H	W 81–63	+1.0	W+19.0	136.5	O144	125.7	97.7	64.5
Feb 21	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #309	H	W 75–61	−9.5	W+4.5	142.0	U136	113.9	92.6	65.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

PennSaint Joseph's

Efficiency

107.9

107.1

107.2

104.5

69.3

68.8

—

Shooting

50.4%

49.2%

46.5%

51.7%

38.3%

30.8%

69.4%

73.8%

33.9%

29.7%

Ball control & glass

15.3%

16.8%

17.3%

15.0%

30.0%

31.4%

31.3%

30.6%

8.5%

9.7%

9.3%

10.8%

Style

35.4%

45.1%

39.7%

44.1%

11.0%

15.5%

52.3%

59.6%

31.8%

26.1%

Roster

2.70

2.54

6'5.9"

6'5.5"

88.4%

90.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Penn

Returning minutes: 88.4%Returning production: 86.3%

Lost

Ethan Roberts 23.4 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to Notre Dame

Added

Ryan Altman no D1 minutes last season
Chris Ubochi no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Saint Joseph's

Returning minutes: 90.9%Returning production: 91.4%

Lost

Jaden Smith 9.1 mpg, 2.8 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Deuce Jones 7.5 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kevin Kearney 1.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Manhattan

Added

Owen Verna no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 91% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Mon, Nov 17	2025-26	Saint Joseph's 74 – 83 Penn

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.