CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteMcArthur Center, St. Petersburg, FL
Bradley
Efficiency #117
2025-26: 21-13 · 14-8 conf
vs
George Mason
Efficiency #83
2025-26: 23-10 · 11-8 conf
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
70.6
win 44%
Projected
72.3
win 56%
No line posted yet.
Model: GMU −1.6 · total 142.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: George Mason 65.9, Bradley 68.2 → 65.8 possessions
−5.5
George Mason offense vs Bradley defense
+0.9
Bradley offense vs George Mason defense
−0.7
Projected total
142.9
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
George Mason offense vs Bradley defense
+0.9
Bradley offense vs George Mason defense
+0.7
George Mason by 1.6
1.6
Bradley side ◂▸ George Mason side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help George Mason.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bradley is the faster team (67.6, #220 of 365) and George Mason the slower (64.7, #334). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
142.9
model
Projected team totals
70.6 / 72.3
Bradley / George Mason
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.2#192
Bradley
65.9#345
George Mason
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Half-court grind
George Mason averages 64.7 possessions per 40, Bradley 67.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageBradley
Where Bradley scores: ball control
Bradley turns it over on 13.9% of possessions (#20); George Mason forces turnovers on 15.4% of opponent possessions (#256). Expect about 14.3%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageGeorge Mason
Where George Mason scores: shooting
George Mason shoots an effective 52.7% (#113); Bradley allows 52.8% (#259). Expect about 52.9%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Bradley's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Bradley at about 42.1% of its shots from three, George Mason about 36.3%.
GlassBradley
Bradley gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.3% is worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions against Bradley's offense.
Bradley has the ball
OffenseGeorge Mason allowsvs D1 avg
51.1% #189
49.5% #83
-1.4 pt/100
13.9% #20
15.4% #256
+3.0 pt/100
27.4% #285
28.3% #79
-1.9 pt/100
35.9% #156
28.9% #43
-0.4 pt/100
74.0% #134
—
+0.1 pt/100
Bradley net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.5 pts/100
George Mason has the ball
OffenseBradley allowsvs D1 avg
52.7% #113
52.8% #259
+2.3 pt/100
15.8% #122
19.0% #53
-1.0 pt/100
31.3% #149
27.8% #62
-0.4 pt/100
41.1% #44
38.2% #265
+0.6 pt/100
72.5% #188
—
+0.0 pt/100
George Mason net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.6 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersBradleyoffense vsGeorge Masondefense
Share of shots by zone
Bradley shoots
34.4
9.5
15.9
40.2
George Mason allows
36.2
7.3
14.6
42.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.7%#173 | 60.1%#234 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 35.1%#287 | 38.8%#157 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.7%#296 | 30.9%#8 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.1%#53 | 32.6%#91 | 33.7% |
George Masonoffense vsBradleydefense
Share of shots by zone
George Mason shoots
39.9
8.7
16.4
35.0
Bradley allows
32.8
8.8
19.3
39.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.8%#40 | 59.2%#199 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.5%#34 | 36.2%#94 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.0%#313 | 44.3%#343 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.3%#214 | 36.6%#334 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersBradley
+2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#58 of 365
Off reb %
27.4%
#285
Def reb %
72.2%
#62
Turnover %
13.9%
#20
Forced TO %
19.0%
#53
FT rate
35.9%
#156
FT allowed
38.2%
#265
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security+1.9
Forcing turnovers+1.5
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed−0.8
George Mason
+4.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#36 of 365
Off reb %
31.3%
#149
Def reb %
71.7%
#79
Turnover %
15.8%
#122
Forced TO %
15.4%
#256
FT rate
41.1%
#44
FT allowed
28.9%
#43
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn+1.6
Foul shots allowed+1.6
George Mason has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.1 (#36 of 365) to Bradley’s +2.9 (#58).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Bradley2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Bradley's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Alex Huibregtse | G | Sr | 6'4" | 34-34 | 31.2 | 12.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 59.3% | 43.3% | 7.0 | 84.4% | 21.7% | |
| 22 | Jaquan Johnson | G | So | 5'11" | 34-34 | 30.4 | 16.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 48.9% | 38.3% | 4.1 | 78.4% | 32.2% | |
| 21 | AJ Smith | F | Sr | 6'7" | 34-32 | 25.7 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 51.2% | 37.2% | 2.8 | 72.2% | 19.8% | |
| 14 | Ahmet Jonovic | C | Sr | 7'1" | 34-33 | 24.7 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 53.3% | 20.0% | 0.1 | 75.0% | 20.2% | |
| 10 | Timoty van der Knaap | G | So | 6'8" | 34-11 | 22.9 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 46.8% | 23.1% | 1.9 | 65.2% | 18.8% | |
| 7 | Montana Wheeler | G | Fr | 5'10" | 34-0 | 22.3 | 8.5 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 33.7% | 3.1 | 71.2% | 23.8% | |
| 4 | Corey Thomas | F | Sr | 6'10" | 34-10 | 18.4 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 57.1% | 32.8% | 1.8 | 75.0% | 16.7% | |
| 0 | Demarion Burch | G | Jr | 6'4" | 26-16 | 23.0 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 46.2% | 31.3% | 3.1 | 58.5% | 25.7% | |
| 12 | Kai Yu | C | So | 7'0" | 29-0 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 50.8% | 27.8% | 0.6 | 69.6% | 20.3% | |
| 1 | Dietrich Richardson | G | Fr | 6'7" | 18-0 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 37.8% | 9.1% | 0.6 | 62.5% | 31.0% | |
| 5 | Matthew Zobrist | G | Fr | 6'5" | 13-0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 41.7% | 25.0% | 0.6 | 81.8% | 17.4% | |
| 13 | Handy Toussaint III | F | Jr | 6'8" | 5-0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 9.9% | |
| 23 | Gus Rugaard | G | So | 6'1" | 7-0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 11.5% | |
| 17 | Gustavo Guimares | C | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Jackson Seastrunk | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
George Mason2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted George Mason's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kory Mincy | G | Jr | 6'2" | 33-32 | 34.0 | 14.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 53.5% | 38.9% | 5.3 | 88.7% | 25.5% | |
| 2 | Jahari Long | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-33 | 33.8 | 12.2 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 53.8% | 37.7% | 3.9 | 82.6% | 22.1% | |
| 35 | Riley Allenspach | F | Jr | 6'11" | 32-31 | 24.9 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 60.2% | 31.3% | 2.1 | 68.0% | 30.2% | |
| 0 | Masai Troutman | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-22 | 25.1 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 49.2% | 33.3% | 3.1 | 81.1% | 21.9% | |
| 5 | Fatt Hill | G | Sr | 6'5" | 23-4 | 24.1 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 51.6% | 28.0% | 1.1 | 73.7% | 27.9% | |
| 13 | Malik Presley | G | Jr | 6'6" | 33-22 | 16.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 53.5% | 31.8% | 0.7 | 44.4% | 14.4% | |
| 10 | Emmanuel Kanga | F | Fr | 6'8" | 32-0 | 13.3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 58.1% | — | 0.0 | 59.5% | 20.3% | |
| 23 | Nick Ellington | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-5 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 57.1% | 100.0% | 0.0 | 64.7% | 21.9% | |
| 9 | Stas Sivka | F | So | 6'10" | 29-2 | 11.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 47.4% | 28.2% | 1.3 | 73.3% | 14.7% | |
| 4 | Dola Adebayo | F | Sr | 6'8" | 27-13 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 46.2% | 26.1% | 0.9 | 80.8% | 20.7% | |
| 11 | Devin Booker | G | Fr | 6'4" | 25-0 | 8.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 35.6% | 22.6% | 1.2 | 53.3% | 19.8% | |
| 1 | Brayden O'Connor | G | Sr | 6'5" | 1-1 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | — | 44.0% | |
| 14 | T.J. Prosise | G | So | 6'3" | 6-0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 22.2% | |
| 12 | Ben Woodward | G | Jr | 6'4" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | — | 22.5% | |
| 7 | Isaiah Skinn | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 31 | Ryan-Preston Mendy | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Bradley2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Bradley's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Alex Huibregtse | G | Sr | 6'4" | 34-34 | 31.2 | 12.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 59.3% | 43.3% | 7.0 | 84.4% | 21.7% | |
| 22 | Jaquan Johnson | G | So | 5'11" | 34-34 | 30.4 | 16.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 48.9% | 38.3% | 4.1 | 78.4% | 32.2% | |
| 21 | AJ Smith | F | Sr | 6'7" | 34-32 | 25.7 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 51.2% | 37.2% | 2.8 | 72.2% | 19.8% | |
| 14 | Ahmet Jonovic | C | Sr | 7'1" | 34-33 | 24.7 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 53.3% | 20.0% | 0.1 | 75.0% | 20.2% | |
| 10 | Timoty van der Knaap | G | So | 6'8" | 34-11 | 22.9 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 46.8% | 23.1% | 1.9 | 65.2% | 18.8% | |
| 7 | Montana Wheeler | G | Fr | 5'10" | 34-0 | 22.3 | 8.5 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 33.7% | 3.1 | 71.2% | 23.8% | |
| 4 | Corey Thomas | F | Sr | 6'10" | 34-10 | 18.4 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 57.1% | 32.8% | 1.8 | 75.0% | 16.7% | |
| 0 | Demarion Burch | G | Jr | 6'4" | 26-16 | 23.0 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 46.2% | 31.3% | 3.1 | 58.5% | 25.7% | |
| 12 | Kai Yu | C | So | 7'0" | 29-0 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 50.8% | 27.8% | 0.6 | 69.6% | 20.3% | |
| 1 | Dietrich Richardson | G | Fr | 6'7" | 18-0 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 37.8% | 9.1% | 0.6 | 62.5% | 31.0% | |
| 5 | Matthew Zobrist | G | Fr | 6'5" | 13-0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 41.7% | 25.0% | 0.6 | 81.8% | 17.4% | |
| 13 | Handy Toussaint III | F | Jr | 6'8" | 5-0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 9.9% | |
| 23 | Gus Rugaard | G | So | 6'1" | 7-0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 11.5% | |
| 17 | Gustavo Guimares | C | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Jackson Seastrunk | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Bradley
Against the spread
Season
14-19
Home
7-9
Road
3-8
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +0.6
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
20-13
Home
9-7
Road
7-4
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +8.2
Over 5 straightOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | Dayton | H | L 66–80 | +2.5 | L−11.5 | 141.0 | O146 | 110.4 | 133.9 | 59.8 |
| Mar 7 | Northern Iowa | N | L 69–73 | +4.5 | W+0.5 | 126.5 | O142 | 108.9 | 115.3 | 63.3 |
| Mar 6 | Valparaiso | N | W 90–84 2OT | −5.0 | W+1.0 | 138.5 | O174 | 102.6 | 95.8 | 87.7 |
| Mar 1 | Murray St | H | W 87–78 | −4.0 | W+5.0 | 158.0 | O165 | 129.4 | 116.0 | 67.2 |
| Feb 24 | UIC | A | L 86–93 2OT | +2.0 | L−5.0 | 142.0 | O179 | 109.8 | 118.8 | 78.3 |
| Feb 21 | Illinois St | H | W 74–60 | −4.5 | W+9.5 | 144.5 | U134 | 115.3 | 93.5 | 64.2 |
| Feb 18 | Valparaiso | A | L 72–79 | −2.5 | L−9.5 | 142.5 | O151 | 108.5 | 119.0 | 66.4 |
| Feb 15 | S Illinois | A | W 70–60 | +2.5 | W+12.5 | 147.0 | U130 | 101.2 | 86.8 | 69.2 |
| Feb 9 | Belmont | H | W 95–84 OT | +1.0 | W+12.0 | 153.0 | O179 | 122.8 | 108.6 | 77.4 |
| Feb 6 | Northern Iowa | A | L 49–61 | +3.5 | L−8.5 | 134.5 | U110 | 82.1 | 102.3 | 59.6 |
George Mason
Against the spread
Season
16-16
Home
11-8
Road
3-7
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −3.2
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
15-17
Home
8-11
Road
6-4
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −7.2
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17 | Liberty | H | L 71–77 | −3.0 | L−9.0 | 141.5 | O148 | 112.8 | 122.3 | 63.0 |
| Mar 12 | St Bonaventure | N | L 57–63 | −2.5 | L−8.5 | 142.5 | U120 | 93.7 | 103.5 | 60.9 |
| Mar 7 | #25Saint Louis | H | W 86–57 | +7.0 | W+36.0 | 147.0 | U143 | 136.6 | 90.6 | 62.9 |
| Mar 3 | VCU | A | L 65–70 | +10.0 | W+5.0 | 147.5 | U135 | 106.9 | 115.1 | 60.8 |
| Feb 28 | St Bonaventure | H | W 71–58 | −3.5 | W+9.5 | 147.0 | U129 | 119.8 | 97.9 | 59.3 |
| Feb 25 | Saint Joseph's | A | L 63–81 | −1.0 | L−19.0 | 136.5 | O144 | 97.7 | 125.7 | 64.5 |
| Feb 18 | Dayton | H | L 67–82 | −2.0 | L−17.0 | 137.0 | O149 | 106.8 | 130.8 | 62.7 |
| Feb 13 | G Washington | A | L 53–72 | +3.5 | L−15.5 | 150.0 | U125 | 90.2 | 122.6 | 58.8 |
| Feb 10 | Richmond | A | L 70–82 | −3.0 | L−15.0 | 140.0 | O152 | 99.8 | 116.9 | 70.1 |
| Feb 7 | Saint Joseph's | H | W 60–52 | −7.0 | W+1.0 | 139.5 | U112 | 99.5 | 86.2 | 60.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeBradleyGeorge Mason
Efficiency
110.2
110.8
107.5
105.7
68.2
65.9
—
—
Shooting
51.1%
52.7%
49.1%
54.3%
36.1%
33.3%
74.0%
72.5%
35.9%
41.1%
Ball control & glass
13.9%
15.8%
19.0%
15.4%
27.4%
31.3%
27.8%
28.3%
7.1%
9.6%
8.8%
9.8%
Style
40.5%
35.2%
39.4%
46.4%
12.0%
12.1%
50.8%
49.9%
33.2%
33.9%
Roster
2.92
3.24
6'5.4"
6'6"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputBradley
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Bradley's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
George Mason
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted George Mason's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.