CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceChartway Arena, Norfolk, VA

Longwood

Efficiency #248

2025-26: 16-16 · 8-9 conf

Old Dominion

Efficiency #242

2025-26: 12-21 · 8-12 conf

Sat, Nov 14 · TBD

73.4

win 36%

Projected

77.6

win 64%

No line posted yet.

Model: ODU −4.2 · total 151.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Old Dominion 69.4, Longwood 69.0 → 70.1 possessions

+3.8

Old Dominion offense vs Longwood defense

−0.4

Longwood offense vs Old Dominion defense

−0.6

Projected total

151.0

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Old Dominion offense vs Longwood defense

−0.4

Longwood offense vs Old Dominion defense

+0.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Old Dominion by 4.2

4.2

Longwood side ◂▸ Old Dominion side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Old Dominion.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Old Dominion is the faster team (70.3, #83 of 365) and Longwood the slower (69.4, #121). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

151.0

model

Projected team totals

73.4 / 77.6

Longwood / Old Dominion

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.0#120

Longwood

69.4#94

Old Dominion

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageOld Dominion

Where Old Dominion struggles: the offensive glass

Old Dominion rebounds 26.0% of its own misses (#323); Longwood lets opponents grab 27.7% of their own misses (#58). Expect about 26.0%, 4.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageLongwood

Where Longwood scores: the offensive glass

Longwood rebounds 34.6% of its own misses (#57); Old Dominion lets opponents grab 30.3% of their own misses (#176). Expect about 33.3%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseLongwood

Longwood's ball-hawking

Longwood ranks #34 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 10.7% of Old Dominion's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

ClashOld Dominion

Style clash: 3-point volume

Old Dominion rarely shoots threes (36.2% of its shots); Longwood lets opponents take 42.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Longwood has the ball

OffenseOld Dominion allowsvs D1 avg

49.7% #254

50.8% #145

-1.7 pt/100

19.1% #326

14.5% #323

+0.2 pt/100

34.6% #57

30.3% #176

+1.8 pt/100

41.3% #40

42.0% #322

+0.9 pt/100

74.0% #136

—

+0.1 pt/100

Longwood net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.3 pts/100

Old Dominion has the ball

OffenseLongwood allowsvs D1 avg

50.7% #203

53.8% #293

+1.3 pt/100

15.4% #100

19.8% #29

-1.4 pt/100

26.0% #323

27.7% #58

-2.7 pt/100

34.7% #189

42.1% #326

+0.5 pt/100

73.3% #161

—

+0.1 pt/100

Old Dominion net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Longwoodoffense vsOld Dominiondefense

Share of shots by zone

Longwood shoots

43.0

5.2

17.1

34.7

Old Dominion allows

39.7

7.5

16.6

36.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.6%#252	61.6%#290	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.0%#78	28.6%#9	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.9%#150	40.5%#257	38.0%
Three	31.4%#309	32.0%#62	33.7%

Old Dominionoffense vsLongwooddefense

Share of shots by zone

Old Dominion shoots

35.9

7.0

21.6

35.5

Longwood allows

40.3

5.0

12.6

42.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.0%#117	63.8%#339	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.8%#318	32.9%#28	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.0%#290	39.7%#231	38.0%
Three	36.0%#60	33.8%#171	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Longwood

+2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#70 of 365

Off reb %

34.6%

#57

Def reb %

72.3%

#58

Turnover %

19.1%

#326

Forced TO %

19.8%

#29

FT rate

41.3%

#40

FT allowed

42.1%

#326

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.3

Defensive rebounding+0.9

Ball security−1.6

Forcing turnovers+2.1

Foul shots drawn+1.6

Foul shots allowed−1.8

Old Dominion

−3.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#326 of 365

Off reb %

26.0%

#323

Def reb %

69.7%

#176

Turnover %

15.4%

#100

Forced TO %

14.5%

#323

FT rate

34.7%

#189

FT allowed

42.0%

#322

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.4

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers−1.5

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed−1.7

Longwood has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.6 (#70 of 365) to Old Dominion’s −3.8 (#326).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Longwood2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Jacoi Hutchinson	G	Jr	6'3"	31-31	28.4	12.3	3.3	3.2	1.8	46.5%	25.4%	2.2	86.2%	26.9%
77	Elijah Tucker	F	Sr	6'8"	32-32	26.3	12.5	6.8	1.1	2.7	59.0%	50.0%	0.1	71.2%	27.8%
0	Johan Nziemi	F	Sr	6'6"	29-27	25.9	10.6	6.0	1.8	2.0	51.9%	34.8%	0.8	73.1%	24.5%
3	Alphonzo Billups III	G	Jr	6'7"	32-18	23.1	8.1	2.8	1.3	1.2	54.2%	33.6%	3.8	64.3%	21.3%
24	Jaylen Benard	G	Jr	6'2"	32-0	19.8	7.3	3.7	0.9	1.0	53.2%	31.7%	3.8	56.3%	22.7%
23	Elijah Jones	F	Sr	6'7"	27-2	17.3	3.9	3.6	0.7	0.7	49.3%	31.3%	0.6	67.3%	13.9%
7	Elijah Kelly	G	Fr	6'7"	30-17	11.2	2.3	1.8	0.4	0.5	53.4%	34.2%	1.3	58.3%	13.5%
11	Jaylin Payne	F	Jr	6'8"	29-1	8.0	1.8	1.7	0.2	0.6	54.8%	0.0%	0.1	58.3%	15.6%
5	KJ McClurg	G	Sr	6'3"	4-0	14.3	2.0	2.3	0.5	0.3	13.3%	0.0%	1.5	50.0%	19.0%
8	Isaiah Kalala	F	Fr	6'9"	13-0	3.8	1.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	75.0%	—	0.0	58.3%	13.0%
30	Jerome Williams	G	Fr	6'0"	9-0	5.1	1.3	0.2	0.6	0.3	35.0%	20.0%	0.6	83.3%	19.1%
10	Gerald Burr III	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
35	Quadri Bashiru	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Old Dominion2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Old Dominion's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Jordan Battle	G	Sr	6'2"	33-33	32.8	15.4	4.4	3.0	2.0	54.1%	43.5%	5.6	85.0%	25.0%
0	KC Shaw	G	Sr	6'4"	29-29	31.2	16.8	4.3	2.2	2.1	46.9%	8.7%	0.8	72.3%	33.6%
6	LJ Thomas	G	Sr	6'2"	30-25	27.6	11.3	3.6	3.3	2.0	48.2%	29.0%	1.0	74.5%	26.0%
4	Robert Davis Jr.	G	Jr	6'6"	26-20	29.6	9.6	2.5	1.4	1.1	44.7%	33.0%	6.9	81.5%	21.7%
13	Jared Turner	F	Jr	6'8"	33-5	20.9	6.1	3.6	0.9	0.4	56.5%	38.2%	4.4	64.3%	15.5%
35	Caelum Swanton-Rodger	F	Sr	7'0"	31-31	20.5	8.2	4.9	0.8	1.4	63.3%	0.0%	0.1	58.9%	22.0%
2	Zacch Wiggins	G	Fr	6'4"	33-10	18.6	6.1	2.5	1.1	0.6	54.7%	37.3%	1.5	71.2%	17.8%
3	Scottie Hubbard	G	So	6'6"	32-9	16.0	3.1	2.9	0.5	0.7	45.8%	32.4%	2.1	75.0%	14.0%
7	Drew McKenna	G	So	6'7"	26-0	11.0	4.0	2.5	0.5	0.5	45.3%	25.0%	1.1	76.2%	23.2%
8	Donovan Raymond	F	So	6'10"	31-2	6.5	1.5	1.4	0.2	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	45.8%	13.4%
42	Ben Nacey	F	So	6'8"	9-0	7.6	2.3	1.6	0.3	0.1	58.3%	—	0.0	58.3%	15.4%
11	Rieco Hellams	G	Jr	5'10"	12-0	2.8	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	25.0%	0.0%	0.1	100.0%	12.0%
30	Cooper Jones	G	Jr	6'2"	3-1	4.7	1.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	30.0%	20.0%	1.7	—	33.1%
15	CJ Parker	G	So	6'6"	3-0	3.3	0.0	2.0	0.3	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	5.7%
10	Elijah Flowers	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Stephaun Walker	F	Sr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Longwood2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Jacoi Hutchinson	G	Jr	6'3"	31-31	28.4	12.3	3.3	3.2	1.8	46.5%	25.4%	2.2	86.2%	26.9%
77	Elijah Tucker	F	Sr	6'8"	32-32	26.3	12.5	6.8	1.1	2.7	59.0%	50.0%	0.1	71.2%	27.8%
0	Johan Nziemi	F	Sr	6'6"	29-27	25.9	10.6	6.0	1.8	2.0	51.9%	34.8%	0.8	73.1%	24.5%
3	Alphonzo Billups III	G	Jr	6'7"	32-18	23.1	8.1	2.8	1.3	1.2	54.2%	33.6%	3.8	64.3%	21.3%
24	Jaylen Benard	G	Jr	6'2"	32-0	19.8	7.3	3.7	0.9	1.0	53.2%	31.7%	3.8	56.3%	22.7%
23	Elijah Jones	F	Sr	6'7"	27-2	17.3	3.9	3.6	0.7	0.7	49.3%	31.3%	0.6	67.3%	13.9%
7	Elijah Kelly	G	Fr	6'7"	30-17	11.2	2.3	1.8	0.4	0.5	53.4%	34.2%	1.3	58.3%	13.5%
11	Jaylin Payne	F	Jr	6'8"	29-1	8.0	1.8	1.7	0.2	0.6	54.8%	0.0%	0.1	58.3%	15.6%
5	KJ McClurg	G	Sr	6'3"	4-0	14.3	2.0	2.3	0.5	0.3	13.3%	0.0%	1.5	50.0%	19.0%
8	Isaiah Kalala	F	Fr	6'9"	13-0	3.8	1.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	75.0%	—	0.0	58.3%	13.0%
30	Jerome Williams	G	Fr	6'0"	9-0	5.1	1.3	0.2	0.6	0.3	35.0%	20.0%	0.6	83.3%	19.1%
10	Gerald Burr III	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
35	Quadri Bashiru	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Longwood

Against the spread

Season

13-16

Home

7-5

Road

6-8

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +1.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-12

Home

9-3

Road

7-7

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +5.6

Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	N	L 82–85 OT	−1.0	L−4.0	141.0	O167	107.1	111.0	76.5
Feb 28	RadfordAdjEM #245	H	W 90–74	−2.0	W+14.0	156.0	O164	122.0	100.3	73.8
Feb 21	Charleston SoAdjEM #220	A	W 107–96 2OT	+2.5	W+13.5	154.0	O203	125.8	112.9	85.0
Feb 19	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	A	L 65–72	+2.5	L−4.5	140.0	U137	97.8	108.3	66.5
Feb 14	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	H	W 82–75 OT	−6.0	W+1.0	146.5	O157	98.0	89.6	83.7
Feb 12	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	H	L 74–79	−2.0	L−7.0	142.5	O153	109.7	117.1	67.5
Feb 7	WinthropAdjEM #116	A	L 74–79	+10.0	W+5.0	152.5	O153	95.7	102.2	77.3
Feb 4	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	A	W 86–66	−12.5	W+7.5	148.0	O152	121.1	93.0	71.0
Jan 31	High PointAdjEM #50	H	L 59–71	+10.5	L−1.5	157.0	U130	93.5	112.5	63.1
Jan 29	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	A	L 60–65	−1.5	L−6.5	147.5	U125	85.2	92.3	70.4

Old Dominion

Against the spread

Season

15-14-3

Home

6-5-1

Road

9-7-2

Last 10

5-4-1

avg cover +1.6

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

21-11

Home

7-5

Road

12-6

Last 10

8-2

avg vs total +8.5

Over 6 straightOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	N	L 84–88	+2.0	L−2.0	157.5	O172	121.6	127.4	69.1
Mar 3	UL MonroeAdjEM #351	N	W 87–80	−10.5	L−3.5	157.5	O167	124.6	114.6	69.8
Feb 27	Georgia StAdjEM #310	A	W 81–73	−1.0	W+7.0	149.5	O154	109.9	99.1	73.7
Feb 24	MarshallAdjEM #175	A	L 88–97	+8.5	L−0.5	160.5	O185	122.0	134.5	72.1
Feb 21	Southern MissAdjEM #218	A	L 81–86	+5.0	P0.0	148.0	O167	100.0	106.1	81.0
Feb 16	LouisianaAdjEM #318	H	W 83–72	−5.5	W+5.5	136.0	O155	124.6	108.1	66.6
Feb 14	Georgia StAdjEM #310	H	W 78–55	−4.0	W+19.0	147.0	U133	120.8	85.2	64.6
Feb 11	MarshallAdjEM #175	H	L 79–81	+3.0	W+1.0	156.0	O160	111.9	114.7	70.6
Feb 7	OhioAdjEM #233	H	W 78–72	+3.5	W+9.5	156.0	U150	120.3	111.0	64.8
Feb 4	UL MonroeAdjEM #351	H	L 79–85	−14.5	L−20.5	154.0	O164	106.8	115.0	73.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

LongwoodOld Dominion

Efficiency

105.7

106.9

109.5

110.4

69.0

69.4

—

Shooting

49.7%

50.7%

51.1%

48.8%

31.4%

36.0%

74.0%

73.3%

41.3%

34.7%

Ball control & glass

19.1%

15.4%

19.8%

14.5%

34.6%

26.0%

27.7%

30.3%

10.9%

9.2%

9.4%

11.1%

Style

34.8%

36.2%

44.2%

40.5%

11.8%

12.1%

47.1%

49.0%

39.8%

31.6%

Roster

3.25

3.17

6'5.6"

6'5.3"

76.6%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Longwood

Returning minutes: 76.6%Returning production: 79.5%

Lost

Emanuel Richards 26.0 mpg, 9.7 ppg · transferred to E Michigan
Redd Thompson Jr. 22.1 mpg, 10.3 ppg · transferred to Mount St Marys

Added

Gerald Burr III no D1 minutes last season
Quadri Bashiru no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 77% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Old Dominion

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Old Dominion's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.