CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLeavey Center, Santa Clara, CA
New Mexico
Efficiency #42
2025-26: 26-11 · 14-8 conf
@
Santa Clara
Efficiency #33
2025-26: 26-9 · 17-4 conf
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
76.5
win 33%
Projected
81.4
win 67%
No line posted yet.
Model: SCU −5.0 · total 157.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Santa Clara 69.5, New Mexico 70.0 → 71.1 possessions
+6.0
Santa Clara offense vs New Mexico defense
+2.3
New Mexico offense vs Santa Clara defense
+1.4
Projected total
157.9
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Santa Clara offense vs New Mexico defense
+2.3
New Mexico offense vs Santa Clara defense
−1.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Santa Clara by 5.0
5.0
New Mexico side ◂▸ Santa Clara side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Santa Clara.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, New Mexico is the faster team (70.7, #67 of 365) and Santa Clara the slower (69.5, #113). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
71.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
157.9
model
Projected team totals
76.5 / 81.4
New Mexico / Santa Clara
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.0#51
New Mexico
69.5#84
Santa Clara

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
ClashSanta Clara
Style match: 3-point volume
Santa Clara takes 45.0% of its shots from three; New Mexico lets opponents take 48.2% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 49.5% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageNew Mexico
Where New Mexico scores: shooting
New Mexico shoots an effective 53.5% (#82); Santa Clara allows 52.0% (#213). Expect about 53.0%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (New Mexico's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect New Mexico at about 40.7% of its shots from three, Santa Clara about 49.5%.
AdvantageSanta Clara
Where Santa Clara scores: the offensive glass
Santa Clara rebounds 36.4% of its own misses (#20); New Mexico lets opponents grab 27.7% of their own misses (#57). Expect about 33.3%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseSanta Clara
Santa Clara's ball-hawking
Santa Clara ranks #17 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.1% of New Mexico's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
ClashNew Mexico
Strength vs strength: turnover rate
New Mexico (#58 in turnover rate) against Santa Clara (#25 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 17.7%. Historically Santa Clara's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.57 vs 0.64).
New Mexico has the ball
OffenseSanta Clara allowsvs D1 avg
53.5% #82
52.0% #213
+2.4 pt/100
14.9% #58
19.9% #25
-1.1 pt/100
30.6% #176
32.1% #262
+0.6 pt/100
35.8% #160
38.2% #264
+0.3 pt/100
72.9% #176
—
+0.0 pt/100
New Mexico net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.1 pts/100
Santa Clara has the ball
OffenseNew Mexico allowsvs D1 avg
54.4% #53
49.5% #84
+1.4 pt/100
15.4% #99
19.0% #51
-0.8 pt/100
36.4% #20
27.7% #57
+1.8 pt/100
25.5% #363
33.3% #138
-0.7 pt/100
74.4% #106
—
+0.2 pt/100
Santa Clara net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
New Mexicooffense vsSanta Claradefense
Share of shots by zone
New Mexico shoots
Santa Clara allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#22561.4%#28158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.9%#12538.4%#14439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.8%#8432.9%#2638.0%
Three35.6%#8333.1%#12733.7%
Santa Claraoffense vsNew Mexicodefense
Share of shots by zone
Santa Clara shoots
New Mexico allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.3%#8459.1%#19658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.2%#3743.4%#25839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.1%#2443.4%#33338.0%
Three34.9%#12530.5%#2033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
New Mexico
+4.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#30 of 365
Off reb %
30.6%
#176
Def reb %
72.3%
#57
Turnover %
14.9%
#58
Forced TO %
19.0%
#51
FT rate
35.8%
#160
FT allowed
33.3%
#138
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security+1.3
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.5
Santa Clara
+1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#123 of 365
Off reb %
36.4%
#20
Def reb %
67.9%
#262
Turnover %
15.4%
#99
Forced TO %
19.9%
#25
FT rate
25.5%
#363
FT allowed
38.2%
#264
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.9
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers+2.2
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−0.8

New Mexico has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.5 (#30 of 365) to Santa Clara’s +1.4 (#123).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

New Mexico2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted New Mexico's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
23Jake HallGFr6'4"37-3731.016.43.21.61.161.7%43.8%7.280.0%25.2%
3Luke HauptGSr6'7"37-2728.17.84.53.11.450.0%33.3%1.571.6%17.2%
4Uriah TenetteGFr5'11"36-827.510.62.82.90.947.8%32.4%3.883.2%22.2%
10Tomislav BuljanFFr6'9"35-3526.013.110.31.51.855.3%30.8%0.760.7%29.0%
5Antonio CholFJr6'9"37-3224.27.72.90.80.750.0%32.3%5.060.0%19.3%
1Deyton AlburyGSr6'2"35-3424.811.73.73.02.355.6%37.7%1.577.9%26.9%
2Tajavis MillerGSr6'4"32-016.75.62.11.00.650.6%34.3%3.366.7%20.0%
35JT RockCSo7'1"37-112.86.23.50.40.661.9%39.7%1.664.4%24.6%
8Chris HowellGSr6'6"11-1124.55.53.03.41.842.4%27.8%1.687.5%16.0%
31Milos VicenticFSr6'7"16-07.13.11.10.20.140.8%20.7%1.8100.0%27.7%
0Kevin Patton Jr.GJr6'8"9-09.72.62.20.70.439.6%10.0%1.157.1%20.0%
29Timeo PonsGFr6'8"13-05.42.61.00.30.245.0%30.4%1.887.5%29.5%
11Kallai PattonGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7Sir Marius JonesGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
New MexicoSanta Clara
Efficiency
113.5
117.3
102.9
105.4
70.0
69.5
—
—
Shooting
53.5%
54.4%
53.6%
56.1%
35.6%
34.9%
72.9%
74.4%
35.8%
25.5%
Ball control & glass
14.9%
15.4%
19.0%
19.9%
30.6%
36.4%
27.7%
32.1%
8.6%
9.2%
9.2%
9.0%
Style
41.9%
45.0%
42.8%
43.7%
15.4%
15.2%
52.8%
55.0%
31.5%
35.7%
Roster
2.48
2.38
6'5.5"
6'5.1"
—
65.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
New Mexico
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted New Mexico's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Santa Clara
Returning minutes: 65.0%Returning production: 55.6%
Lost
  • Elijah Mahi 30.4 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Allen Graves 22.6 mpg, 11.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Bukky Oboye 17.3 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Auburn
Added
  • Brad Longcor III no D1 minutes last season
  • Malachi Douyon no D1 minutes last season
  • Noah Badibanga no D1 minutes last season
  • Chris Tadjo no D1 minutes last season
  • Gehrig Normand no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 65% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Dec 62025-26Santa Clara 71 – 98 New Mexico

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.