Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks basketball preview & prediction
Sat, Nov 14 · 7:00 PM ET · Trask Coliseum, Wilmington, NC
Non-conferenceTrask Coliseum, Wilmington, NC
Louisiana
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #313
@
UNC Wilmington
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #114
Sat, Nov 14 · 7:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, UNC Wilmington is the faster team (79.0, #21 of 365) and Louisiana the slower (66.7, #300). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.5
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.5#337
Louisiana
71.5#122
UNC Wilmington
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
UNC Wilmington has the ball−0.4
Louisiana has the ball−11.1
UNC Wilmington has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 24.0% #326 · UL forces 24.7% #31 · ~18 turnovers−6.3
✓Wins second chancesOR% 35.1% #107 · UL allows 38.2% #295+2.4
✓Shoots it welleFG% 50.9% #168 · UL allows 54.3% #244+2.3
✓Gets to the lineFTR 60.3% #12 · UL allows 59.1% #337 · FT 54.3% #343+1.1
Louisiana has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 36.9% #345 · UNCW allows 44.4% #69−10.5
✗Few second chancesOR% 21.0% #329 · UNCW allows 16.7% #4−6.1
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 13.5% #53 · UNCW forces 13.9% #292 · ~9 turnovers+4.6
✓Gets to the lineFTR 45.0% #90 · UNCW allows 38.7% #200 · FT 78.0% #60+0.9
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootLouisianaoffense vsUNC Wilmingtondefense
Share of shots by zone
Louisiana shoots
32.0
10.7
14.6
42.7
UNC Wilmington allows
30.6
4.8
4.8
59.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 39.4%#343 | 63.2%#244 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 18.2%#294 | 33.3%#125 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 13.3%#314 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 33.3%#158 | 24.3%#41 | 32.5% |
UNC Wilmingtonoffense vsLouisianadefense
Share of shots by zone
UNC Wilmington shoots
43.1
6.9
8.6
41.4
Louisiana allows
46.1
2.2
5.6
46.1
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.0%#146 | 56.1%#152 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 25.0%#250 | 50.0%#243 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 0.0%#327 | 40.0%#212 | 34.7% |
| Three | 37.5%#87 | 35.7%#248 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineLouisiana
−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#192 of 365
Off reb %
21.0%
#329
Def reb %
61.8%
#295
Turnover %
13.5%
#53
Forced TO %
24.7%
#31
FT rate
45.0%
#90
FT allowed
59.1%
#337
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.5
Defensive rebounding−2.2
Ball security+3.4
Forcing turnovers+4.7
Foul shots drawn+2.0
Foul shots allowed−5.5
UNC Wilmington
+4.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#109 of 365
Off reb %
35.1%
#107
Def reb %
83.3%
#4
Turnover %
24.0%
#326
Forced TO %
13.9%
#292
FT rate
60.3%
#12
FT allowed
38.7%
#200
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding+5.0
Ball security−4.1
Forcing turnovers−2.9
Foul shots drawn+6.0
Foul shots allowed−0.2
UNC Wilmington has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.9 (#109 of 365) to Louisiana’s −1.1 (#192).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notLouisiana2026-27 numbers · last game: Texas A&M-CC, Nov 6
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 3-3 | 36.0 | 36 | — | Started last | 20.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 43.4% | 31.3% | 10.7 | 88.2% | 34.1% | |
| 3 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 3-2 | 29.3 | 27 | — | Started last | 8.7 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 30.8% | 25.0% | 2.7 | 90.0% | 17.3% | |
| 6 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 3-2 | 28.0 | 34 | — | Bench | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 35.2% | 33.3% | 5.0 | 50.0% | 23.2% | |
| 11 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 2-2 | 25.0 | 21 | — | Started last | 10.5 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 31.0% | 20.0% | 2.5 | 72.7% | 33.1% | |
| 0 | F | Jr | 6'10" | 3-3 | 16.0 | 20 | — | Started last | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 16.7% | — | 0.0 | 55.6% | 17.1% | |
| 56 | F | Fr | 6'10" | 3-0 | 16.0 | 3 | — | Bench | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 66.7% | 16.7% | |
| 4 | G | Fr | 5'9" | 2-0 | 22.5 | 18 | — | Bench | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 20.8% | 20.0% | 2.5 | 100.0% | 22.7% | |
| 5 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 2-0 | 21.0 | 19 | — | Bench | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | — | 7.0% | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 2-2 | 18.5 | 6 | — | Started last | 8.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 47.1% | 57.1% | 3.5 | — | 29.8% | |
| 8 | F | So | 6'8" | 3-1 | 9.3 | 15 | — | Bench | 0.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 12.3% | |
| 12 | F | Fr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 7.3 | 1 | — | Bench | 0.7 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | — | 17.6% | |
| 22 | G | So | 6'3" | 1-0 | 1.0 | — | — | Active | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 52.1% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesLouisiana
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-2
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −9.8
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
0-2
Home
0-2
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-2
avg vs total −7.0
Under 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Southern New Orleans Knights | H | W 56–39 | — | — | — | — | 77.3 | 53.8 | 72.5 |
| Nov 6 | Texas A&M-CC | H | L 60–67 | −3.5 | L−10.5 | 129.0 | U127 | 91.3 | 101.9 | 65.8 |
| Nov 2 | Akron | H | L 61–75 | +5.0 | L−9.0 | 148.0 | U136 | 90.1 | 110.8 | 67.7 |
| Mar 4 | James Madison | N | L 72–87 | +6.5 | L−8.5 | 135.0 | O159 | 101.2 | 122.3 | 71.2 |
| Mar 3 | Georgia St | N | W 84–75 | +1.0 | W+10.0 | 134.0 | O159 | 121.3 | 108.3 | 69.3 |
| Feb 27 | Arkansas St | A | L 58–81 | +14.0 | L−9.0 | 146.5 | U139 | 76.7 | 107.1 | 75.7 |
| Feb 24 | Troy | A | L 59–78 | +11.0 | L−8.0 | 134.5 | O137 | 103.3 | 136.6 | 57.1 |
| Feb 21 | Texas St | H | W 67–54 | +3.0 | W+16.0 | 134.0 | U121 | 112.1 | 90.3 | 59.8 |
| Feb 19 | Arkansas St | H | L 62–79 | +9.0 | L−8.0 | 145.0 | U141 | 90.2 | 114.9 | 68.8 |
| Feb 16 | Old Dominion | A | L 72–83 | +5.5 | L−5.5 | 136.0 | O155 | 108.1 | 124.6 | 66.6 |
UNC Wilmington
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −2.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +2.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | East Carolina | A | W 78–75 | −5.5 | L−2.5 | 150.5 | O153 | 98.7 | 94.9 | 79.0 |
| Nov 2 | Mount Olive Trojans | H | W 101–65 | — | — | — | — | 130.3 | 83.9 | 77.5 |
| Mar 21 | Dayton | H | L 61–80 | +3.5 | L−15.5 | 138.5 | O141 | 95.9 | 125.8 | 63.6 |
| Mar 17 | Yale | A | W 68–67 | +4.5 | W+5.5 | 148.5 | U135 | 104.5 | 103.0 | 65.1 |
| Mar 8 | Campbell | N | L 70–85 | −7.5 | L−22.5 | 149.0 | O155 | 97.8 | 118.7 | 71.6 |
| Mar 3 | Elon | A | W 76–57 | −5.0 | W+14.0 | 145.5 | U133 | 113.6 | 85.2 | 66.9 |
| Mar 1 | Charleston | H | L 76–79 | −5.0 | L−8.0 | 147.0 | O155 | 117.9 | 122.6 | 64.5 |
| Feb 26 | NC A&T | H | W 88–65 | −13.5 | W+9.5 | 147.5 | O153 | 136.2 | 100.6 | 64.6 |
| Feb 21 | Campbell | A | W 73–68 | −2.5 | W+2.5 | 150.5 | U141 | 106.8 | 99.5 | 68.3 |
| Feb 19 | Monmouth | H | W 79–69 | −7.5 | W+2.5 | 145.0 | O148 | 109.7 | 95.8 | 72.0 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeLouisianaUNC Wilmington
Efficiency
97.2
107.1
108.3
102.3
67.5
71.5
4.5
-4.8
Shooting
36.9%
50.9%
27.0%
47.1%
33.3%
37.5%
78.0%
54.3%
45.0%
60.3%
Ball control & glass
13.5%
24.0%
24.7%
13.9%
21.0%
35.1%
38.2%
16.7%
3.7%
11.4%
9.5%
11.8%
Style
43.2%
41.4%
26.4%
41.0%
6.6%
19.2%
72.7%
68.0%
39.3%
40.7%
Roster
2.93
3.37
6'4.3"
6'5.6"
21.4%
23.7%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputLouisiana
Returning minutes: 29.6%Returning production: 31.4%
Lost
- Dorian Finister 30.5 mpg, 14.0 ppg · transferred to Charlotte
- Jaxon Olvera 29.2 mpg, 13.7 ppg · transferred to Portland
- Milan Mejia 19.4 mpg, 3.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Dariyus Woodson 18.8 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Karris Bilal 13.2 mpg, 3.5 ppg · transferred to Texas Southern
- Joshua Lewis 12.3 mpg, 4.4 ppg · transferred to South Florida
Added
- Mekhi Cooper from Lindenwood · 29.9 mpg, 6.4 ppg last season
- Trent Middleton Jr. from NC A&T · 28.6 mpg, 12.1 ppg last season
- Josiah Harris from Cleveland St · 17.8 mpg, 6.0 ppg last season
- Dani Pounds from Tennessee Tech · 16.5 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
- Tyshawn Duncan no D1 minutes last season
- Derrick Florence III no D1 minutes last season
Returns 30% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
UNC Wilmington
Returning minutes: 23.7%Returning production: 29.5%
Lost
- Nolan Hodge 32.3 mpg, 14.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Greedy Williams 30.6 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Noah Ross 29.2 mpg, 9.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Christian May 28.8 mpg, 10.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Madison Durr 21.6 mpg, 10.3 ppg · transferred to Monmouth
- Makoi Mabor Makoi 8.5 mpg, 1.5 ppg · transferred to Mercer
Added
- William Kermoury from Northeastern · 23.5 mpg, 11.5 ppg last season
- Tahlan Pettway from W Carolina · 21.3 mpg, 8.3 ppg last season
- Spencer Elliott from Charlotte · 17.2 mpg, 4.1 ppg last season
- Xavier Brown from South Florida · 1.1 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
- Matija Prodanovic no D1 minutes last season
- Tamarion Siddle no D1 minutes last season
Returns 24% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Dec 6 | 2025-26 | UNC Wilmington 70 – 63 Louisiana |
More games on Sat, Nov 14
- UNC Greensboro at Cornell · 11:00 AM ET
- Tulane at Akron · 12:00 PM ET
- St Thomas at Army · 1:00 PM ET
- Stonehill at Texas Tech · 1:00 PM ET
- Bradley vs George Mason · 1:00 PM ET
- Towson vs Morgan St · 1:00 PM ET
- Montana at North Dakota · 1:00 PM ET
- Drexel at Maine · 1:00 PM ET
- Loyola Chicago at Colorado St · 1:30 PM ET
- Miami OH at Evansville · 2:00 PM ET
- Gardner-Webb at South Carolina · 2:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at South Florida · 2:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Bellarmine · 2:00 PM ET
- Rice at SF Austin · 2:00 PM ET
- The Citadel at North Florida · 2:00 PM ET
- Wofford at Queens · 2:00 PM ET
- Jackson St at Winthrop · 2:30 PM ET
- C Michigan at N Kentucky · 3:30 PM ET
- LSU at Gonzaga · 3:30 PM ET
- Southern Utah at Wake Forest · 4:00 PM ET
- Lafayette at St Bonaventure · 4:00 PM ET
- Air Force at Pacific · 4:00 PM ET
- Delaware St at East Carolina · 4:00 PM ET
- UNC Asheville at Georgia Tech · 4:00 PM ET
- Hampton at Navy · 4:00 PM ET
- Longwood at Old Dominion · 4:00 PM ET
- Wyoming at Denver · 4:00 PM ET
- S Dakota St vs N Colorado · 4:00 PM ET
- Toledo at Detroit Mercy · 4:00 PM ET
- SC Upstate at Campbell · 4:30 PM ET
- Utah Tech at California · 5:00 PM ET
- Northern Iowa at Oakland · 5:00 PM ET
- Colorado at Providence · 6:00 PM ET
- Manhattan at Le Moyne · 6:00 PM ET
- Marshall at Youngstown St · 6:00 PM ET
- South Alabama at North Texas · 6:00 PM ET
- UC Riverside at Fresno St · 6:00 PM ET
- Penn at Saint Joseph's · 6:30 PM ET
- Brown at Siena · 7:00 PM ET
- West Georgia at Charleston So · 7:00 PM ET
- Austin Peay at Wichita St · 7:00 PM ET
- UAB at Jax State · 7:00 PM ET
- Lipscomb at W Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at Fairfield · 7:00 PM ET
- Portland St at San Francisco · 7:00 PM ET
- Washington at Utah · 7:00 PM ET
- Rider at Villanova · 7:00 PM ET
- UT Rio Grande at UT Arlington · 7:00 PM ET
- Howard at Davidson · 7:00 PM ET
- Cincinnati at Dayton · 7:30 PM ET
- Binghamton at Duquesne · 7:30 PM ET
- IU Indy at Morehead St · 7:30 PM ET
- UL Monroe at Grand Canyon · 8:00 PM ET
- UC Davis at Sacramento St · 8:00 PM ET
- Louisiana Tech at Nicholls · 8:00 PM ET
- N'Western St at Little Rock · 8:00 PM ET
- Furman at Belmont · 8:30 PM ET
- Utah Valley at Nevada · 10:00 PM ET
- Idaho St at Seattle U · 10:00 PM ET
- New Mexico at Santa Clara · 10:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.