CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceRedhawk Center, Seattle, WA

Idaho St

Efficiency #253

2025-26: 13-20 · 6-14 conf

Seattle U

Efficiency #125

2025-26: 21-14 · 9-11 conf

Sat, Nov 14 · TBD

66.5

win 23%

Projected

75.0

win 77%

No line posted yet.

Model: SEA −8.5 · total 141.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Seattle U 68.7, Idaho St 67.0 → 67.3 possessions

−2.2

Seattle U offense vs Idaho St defense

+0.1

Idaho St offense vs Seattle U defense

−4.6

Projected total

141.5

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Seattle U offense vs Idaho St defense

+0.1

Idaho St offense vs Seattle U defense

+4.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Seattle U by 8.5

8.5

Idaho St side ◂▸ Seattle U side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +8.6 against +8.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Seattle U.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Seattle U is the faster team (68.8, #160 of 365) and Idaho St the slower (67.0, #243). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

141.5

model

Projected team totals

66.5 / 75.0

Idaho St / Seattle U

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.0#292

Idaho St

68.7#150

Seattle U

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSeattle U

Where Seattle U struggles: the offensive glass

Seattle U rebounds 23.7% of its own misses (#347); Idaho St lets opponents grab 27.9% of their own misses (#63). Expect about 24.5%, 5.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageIdaho St

Where Idaho St struggles: ball control

Idaho St turns it over on 17.0% of possessions (#204); Seattle U forces turnovers on 21.1% of opponent possessions (#9). Expect about 19.7%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseSeattle U

Seattle U's shot-blocking

Seattle U ranks #14 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.3% of Idaho St's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

TurnoversSeattle U

Seattle U protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.5% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for Seattle U's offense.

Idaho St has the ball

OffenseSeattle U allowsvs D1 avg

51.8% #151

48.4% #46

-1.6 pt/100

17.0% #204

21.1% #9

-3.6 pt/100

32.8% #94

31.8% #249

+1.4 pt/100

37.9% #104

33.0% #131

+0.0 pt/100

74.1% #127

—

+0.1 pt/100

Idaho St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.6 pts/100

Seattle U has the ball

OffenseIdaho St allowsvs D1 avg

49.8% #249

54.5% #315

+1.1 pt/100

16.8% #183

14.7% #309

+1.6 pt/100

23.7% #347

27.9% #63

-3.6 pt/100

34.2% #201

38.0% #260

+0.2 pt/100

70.6% #252

—

-0.2 pt/100

Seattle U net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Idaho Stoffense vsSeattle Udefense

Share of shots by zone

Idaho St shoots

38.3

8.9

11.1

41.8

Seattle U allows

38.4

8.8

15.3

37.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.1%#191	53.2%#26	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.5%#131	39.6%#180	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.9%#39	40.7%#267	38.0%
Three	33.6%#192	32.1%#69	33.7%

Seattle Uoffense vsIdaho Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Seattle U shoots

39.2

7.3

14.0

39.5

Idaho St allows

40.5

7.5

15.3

36.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.3%#262	61.8%#296	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.8%#151	45.2%#303	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.0%#263	45.3%#351	38.0%
Three	33.7%#186	34.5%#220	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Idaho St

+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#173 of 365

Off reb %

32.8%

#94

Def reb %

72.1%

#63

Turnover %

17.0%

#204

Forced TO %

14.7%

#309

FT rate

37.9%

#104

FT allowed

38.0%

#260

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.8

Defensive rebounding+0.9

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers−1.4

Foul shots drawn+0.8

Foul shots allowed−0.7

Seattle U

+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#145 of 365

Off reb %

23.7%

#347

Def reb %

68.2%

#249

Turnover %

16.8%

#183

Forced TO %

21.1%

FT rate

34.2%

#201

FT allowed

33.0%

#131

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.2

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers+3.0

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Seattle U has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.9 (#145 of 365) to Idaho St’s +0.2 (#173).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Idaho St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Connor Hollenbeck	F	Sr	6'7"	33-33	29.9	13.2	4.7	1.6	1.8	52.5%	34.4%	3.9	79.1%	26.5%
12	Lachlan Brewer	G	So	6'6"	33-29	29.5	8.2	3.5	1.1	1.2	53.7%	31.0%	3.5	83.3%	17.2%
2	Jamison Guerra	PG	Sr	6'0"	33-28	25.7	8.8	2.3	3.8	1.5	50.0%	40.5%	2.5	78.4%	22.3%
24	Caleb Van De Griend	F	Sr	6'8"	33-1	18.2	11.8	6.4	0.6	1.1	57.8%	34.1%	1.2	67.5%	36.3%
5	Cheikh Sow	G	Jr	6'7"	30-7	17.6	2.9	3.2	0.4	0.6	32.4%	6.7%	1.0	76.9%	13.5%
30	Evan Otten	F	So	6'11"	33-32	14.8	4.7	3.8	0.3	0.9	52.7%	100.0%	0.0	60.7%	21.3%
0	Gus Etchison	PG	Sr	5'11"	32-5	13.2	8.8	1.4	2.1	1.2	53.1%	34.7%	3.2	66.1%	41.3%
13	Louis Bond	G	Fr	6'5"	24-2	14.0	4.9	1.9	0.5	0.9	51.2%	35.5%	1.3	84.6%	21.5%
32	Blake Daberkow	F	Sr	6'10"	32-0	8.0	3.3	1.6	0.4	0.6	54.1%	0.0%	0.2	65.9%	25.9%
21	Quin Patterson	G	Jr	6'7"	24-0	8.5	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.3	44.3%	27.3%	1.4	66.7%	14.0%
3	Landen Birley	G	Fr	6'4"	9-1	3.9	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	6.7%
4	Jaedyn Brown	G	So	6'5"	3-0	6.0	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.3	25.0%	0.0%	0.7	—	17.7%
14	Kasen Carpenter	G	Sr	6'5"	7-0	1.6	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	31.8%
8	Trey Arland	G	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Seattle U2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Seattle U's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Junseok Yeo	F	Sr	6'8"	34-34	30.8	12.0	4.0	1.6	2.0	51.2%	29.5%	5.2	69.6%	24.5%
15	Will Heimbrodt	F	So	6'7"	34-33	30.8	12.3	5.2	2.2	2.4	44.9%	29.7%	1.9	59.3%	28.7%
1	Maleek Arington	G	Sr	6'3"	35-35	29.6	4.7	3.1	3.9	1.4	36.3%	32.1%	1.5	75.6%	12.5%
0	Brayden Maldonado	G	Sr	6'0"	32-32	30.6	14.7	3.4	2.8	1.6	51.8%	37.8%	6.5	88.7%	27.5%
34	Austin Maurer	C	So	7'0"	35-25	17.9	7.2	4.7	0.5	0.8	55.0%	25.6%	1.1	72.4%	22.6%
11	John Christofilis	G	Sr	6'3"	35-2	16.5	6.5	1.1	0.3	0.3	53.4%	38.7%	3.5	83.3%	21.3%
5	Jojo Murphy	G	Sr	6'2"	35-4	15.5	5.9	2.3	1.4	0.7	48.9%	34.5%	2.5	79.5%	23.7%
6	Houran Dan	C	So	6'10"	35-10	15.0	5.7	2.5	0.3	1.0	58.8%	—	0.0	64.5%	22.3%
2	Miles Amos	G	Jr	6'2"	30-0	11.0	1.9	1.6	0.6	0.8	55.0%	46.2%	0.4	50.0%	13.2%
33	Brock Felder	F	Jr	6'8"	28-0	7.3	3.1	2.3	0.1	0.4	79.6%	0.0%	0.0	50.0%	19.0%
10	Ray Adams	F	Fr	6'8"	5-0	10.2	3.2	2.2	1.6	0.4	38.2%	25.0%	0.8	60.0%	22.3%
25	Yuto Kawashima	F	Fr	6'9"	4-0	8.3	5.0	2.8	0.0	0.3	52.8%	20.0%	1.3	50.0%	32.0%
9	Stratos Papastavrou	F	Fr	6'7"	4-0	7.8	0.5	1.8	0.5	0.5	11.1%	0.0%	0.8	0.0%	20.2%
19	Eric Zheng	G	So	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Jeremiah Harshman	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	JT White	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Idaho St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Connor Hollenbeck	F	Sr	6'7"	33-33	29.9	13.2	4.7	1.6	1.8	52.5%	34.4%	3.9	79.1%	26.5%
12	Lachlan Brewer	G	So	6'6"	33-29	29.5	8.2	3.5	1.1	1.2	53.7%	31.0%	3.5	83.3%	17.2%
2	Jamison Guerra	PG	Sr	6'0"	33-28	25.7	8.8	2.3	3.8	1.5	50.0%	40.5%	2.5	78.4%	22.3%
24	Caleb Van De Griend	F	Sr	6'8"	33-1	18.2	11.8	6.4	0.6	1.1	57.8%	34.1%	1.2	67.5%	36.3%
5	Cheikh Sow	G	Jr	6'7"	30-7	17.6	2.9	3.2	0.4	0.6	32.4%	6.7%	1.0	76.9%	13.5%
30	Evan Otten	F	So	6'11"	33-32	14.8	4.7	3.8	0.3	0.9	52.7%	100.0%	0.0	60.7%	21.3%
0	Gus Etchison	PG	Sr	5'11"	32-5	13.2	8.8	1.4	2.1	1.2	53.1%	34.7%	3.2	66.1%	41.3%
13	Louis Bond	G	Fr	6'5"	24-2	14.0	4.9	1.9	0.5	0.9	51.2%	35.5%	1.3	84.6%	21.5%
32	Blake Daberkow	F	Sr	6'10"	32-0	8.0	3.3	1.6	0.4	0.6	54.1%	0.0%	0.2	65.9%	25.9%
21	Quin Patterson	G	Jr	6'7"	24-0	8.5	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.3	44.3%	27.3%	1.4	66.7%	14.0%
3	Landen Birley	G	Fr	6'4"	9-1	3.9	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	6.7%
4	Jaedyn Brown	G	So	6'5"	3-0	6.0	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.3	25.0%	0.0%	0.7	—	17.7%
14	Kasen Carpenter	G	Sr	6'5"	7-0	1.6	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	31.8%
8	Trey Arland	G	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Idaho St

Against the spread

Season

14-16

Home

5-6

Road

7-8

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −5.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-13

Home

7-4

Road

8-7

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +4.8

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	Portland StAdjEM #145	N	L 78–85	+5.5	L−1.5	141.0	O163	106.1	115.6	73.5
Mar 7	N ArizonaAdjEM #329	N	W 73–65	−4.5	W+3.5	142.5	U138	110.3	98.2	66.2
Mar 2	Sacramento StAdjEM #280	A	L 65–83	−1.0	L−19.0	160.5	U148	92.9	118.7	69.9
Feb 28	Weber StAdjEM #203	H	L 73–83	−2.0	L−12.0	153.0	O156	107.3	122.0	68.1
Feb 21	Montana StAdjEM #130	H	W 91–76	+2.5	W+17.5	144.5	O167	125.6	104.9	72.5
Feb 19	MontanaAdjEM #207	H	W 73–69	+1.0	W+5.0	150.0	U142	107.7	101.8	67.8
Feb 14	IdahoAdjEM #156	A	L 69–99	+7.0	L−23.0	146.5	O168	95.1	136.5	72.5
Feb 12	E WashingtonAdjEM #189	A	L 75–88	+3.5	L−9.5	147.5	O163	114.0	133.7	65.8
Feb 7	N ColoradoAdjEM #146	H	L 61–69	+2.0	L−6.0	151.5	U130	94.3	106.6	64.7
Feb 5	N ArizonaAdjEM #329	H	L 73–79	−8.0	L−14.0	141.5	O152	123.0	133.1	59.4

Seattle U

Against the spread

Season

15-17-1

Home

9-7

Road

5-7-1

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +3.5

Covered 2 straightCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-20

Home

6-10

Road

6-7

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −2.8

Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	AuburnAdjEM #41	A	L 85–91	+14.0	W+8.0	146.0	O176	116.9	125.2	72.7
Mar 17	St ThomasAdjEM #84	H	W 67–52	−2.0	W+13.0	145.5	U119	95.5	74.2	70.1
Mar 7	PacificAdjEM #126	N	L 58–61	+1.0	L−2.0	129.5	U119	89.9	94.5	64.6
Mar 6	San DiegoAdjEM #269	N	W 58–56	−8.0	L−6.0	139.0	U114	94.9	91.6	61.1
Feb 28	LMUAdjEM #183	A	W 71–66	+1.0	W+6.0	136.0	O137	112.8	104.8	63.0
Feb 25	PepperdineAdjEM #307	A	W 87–80	−7.5	L−0.5	145.5	O167	124.1	114.1	70.1
Feb 21	PortlandAdjEM #259	H	W 71–59	−6.5	W+5.5	140.0	U130	103.5	86.0	68.6
Feb 18	Saint Mary'sAdjEM #23	H	L 70–72	+9.5	W+7.5	133.0	O142	95.7	98.4	73.1
Feb 15	Oregon StAdjEM #219	H	W 60–50	−7.0	W+3.0	136.0	U110	93.6	78.0	64.1
Feb 11	Santa ClaraAdjEM #33	A	L 72–84	+12.5	W+0.5	147.0	O156	105.2	122.8	68.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Idaho StSeattle U

Efficiency

108.8

103.7

113.3

101.3

67.0

68.7

—

Shooting

51.8%

49.8%

52.9%

49.3%

33.6%

33.7%

74.1%

70.6%

37.9%

34.2%

Ball control & glass

17.0%

16.8%

14.7%

21.1%

32.8%

23.7%

27.9%

31.8%

10.2%

9.6%

8.8%

9.4%

Style

41.9%

39.4%

41.5%

43.9%

9.3%

9.9%

47.0%

53.8%

35.8%

30.5%

Roster

3.16

3.25

6'5.6"

6'5.4"

86.1%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Idaho St

Returning minutes: 86.1%Returning production: 90.8%

Lost

Martin Kheil 27.8 mpg, 8.5 ppg · transferred to Iona

Added

Trey Arland no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Seattle U

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Seattle U's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Nov 15	2025-26	Idaho St 74 – 83 Seattle U

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.