CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteFrost Bank Center, San Antonio, TXSan Antonio Shootout
Baylor
Efficiency #55
2025-26: 17-17 · 6-13 conf
vs
Texas
Efficiency #38
2025-26: 21-15 · 9-10 conf
Sun, Nov 15 · TBD
77.9
win 44%
Projected
79.5
win 56%
No line posted yet.
Model: TEX −1.6 · total 157.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Texas 67.8, Baylor 68.6 → 68.1 possessions
−0.4
Texas offense vs Baylor defense
+5.6
Baylor offense vs Texas defense
+4.0
Projected total
157.4
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Texas offense vs Baylor defense
+5.6
Baylor offense vs Texas defense
−4.0
Texas by 1.6
1.6
Baylor side ◂▸ Texas side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Texas.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Baylor is the faster team (69.3, #126 of 365) and Texas the slower (68.2, #193). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
157.4
model
Projected team totals
77.9 / 79.5
Baylor / Texas
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.6#155
Baylor
67.8#223
Texas
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageBaylor
Where Baylor scores: ball control
Baylor turns it over on 16.3% of possessions (#154); Texas forces turnovers on 13.0% of opponent possessions (#355). Expect about 14.1%, 2.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageTexas
Where Texas scores: shooting
Texas shoots an effective 54.1% (#65); Baylor allows 52.4% (#237). Expect about 53.5%, 2.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions.
GlassTexas
Texas owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.4% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for Texas's offense.
TurnoversTexas
Texas protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.2% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for Texas's offense.
ClashTexas
Style match: 3-point volume
Texas rarely shoots threes (35.8% of its shots); Baylor runs teams off the line (35.0% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 33.7% — both habits push the same way.
ClashBaylor
Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding
Baylor (#18 in offensive rebounding) against Texas (#35 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 33.2%. Historically Baylor's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).
Baylor has the ball
OffenseTexas allowsvs D1 avg
53.4% #84
50.8% #144
+1.4 pt/100
16.3% #154
13.0% #355
+3.3 pt/100
36.9% #18
26.9% #35
+1.7 pt/100
34.1% #202
39.6% #297
+0.3 pt/100
73.5% #155
—
+0.1 pt/100
Baylor net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.8 pts/100
Texas has the ball
OffenseBaylor allowsvs D1 avg
54.1% #65
52.4% #237
+3.1 pt/100
15.0% #67
15.9% #226
+1.9 pt/100
35.4% #35
31.3% #219
+2.4 pt/100
44.2% #7
30.1% #61
+0.2 pt/100
74.4% #110
—
+0.2 pt/100
Texas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.8 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersBayloroffense vsTexasdefense
Share of shots by zone
Baylor shoots
28.4
13.1
18.9
39.6
Texas allows
39.2
5.2
22.8
32.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.9%#55 | 57.6%#134 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 46.3%#47 | 42.3%#234 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 43.5%#29 | 38.2%#165 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.9%#179 | 34.7%#230 | 33.7% |
Texasoffense vsBaylordefense
Share of shots by zone
Texas shoots
39.0
5.9
19.7
35.5
Baylor allows
26.3
16.6
22.4
34.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.9%#74 | 65.9%#358 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.9%#197 | 47.6%#336 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.1%#51 | 38.9%#199 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.1%#107 | 34.8%#240 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersBaylor
+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#65 of 365
Off reb %
36.9%
#18
Def reb %
68.7%
#219
Turnover %
16.3%
#154
Forced TO %
15.9%
#226
FT rate
34.1%
#202
FT allowed
30.1%
#61
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.1
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security+0.4
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+1.3
Texas
+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#67 of 365
Off reb %
35.4%
#35
Def reb %
73.1%
#35
Turnover %
15.0%
#67
Forced TO %
13.0%
#355
FT rate
44.2%
#7
FT allowed
39.6%
#297
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers−2.5
Foul shots drawn+2.4
Foul shots allowed−1.1
Both teams carry the same grade, +2.7 extra scoring chances per game.
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Baylor2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Tounde Yessoufou | G | Fr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 32.7 | 17.8 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 52.0% | 29.3% | 5.3 | 74.6% | 31.8% | |
| 5 | Obi Agbim | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-33 | 33.3 | 10.7 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 49.7% | 35.6% | 6.6 | 85.4% | 19.7% | |
| 10 | Isaac Williams IV | G | So | 6'1" | 34-14 | 25.0 | 10.4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 61.5% | 47.1% | 1.5 | 68.4% | 22.5% | |
| 44 | Caden Powell | C | Sr | 6'9" | 34-20 | 24.4 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 67.2% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 66.7% | 14.6% | |
| 12 | Michael Rataj | G | Sr | 6'8" | 34-19 | 23.1 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 45.2% | 21.8% | 1.6 | 70.7% | 21.3% | |
| 0 | Dan Skillings Jr. | G | Sr | 6'6" | 29-16 | 25.5 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 49.6% | 29.7% | 2.6 | 71.2% | 22.6% | |
| 46 | James Nnaji | C | Fr | 7'0" | 18-0 | 8.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 69.2% | — | 0.0 | 57.1% | 11.2% | |
| 2 | Will Kuykendall | G | So | 6'2" | 9-0 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 61.5% | 44.4% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 30.1% | |
| 1 | JJ White | G | Sr | 6'1" | 4-0 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | — | 12.5% | |
| 3 | Drew Perry | G | Fr | 5'10" | 9-0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 42.9% | 28.6% | 0.8 | 66.7% | 26.0% | |
| 13 | James Goodis | G | Jr | 6'0" | 3-0 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 125.0% | 100.0% | 0.3 | — | 12.8% | |
| 7 | Andre Iguodala II | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 21 | Juslin Bodo Bodo | C | Jr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 20 | Maikcol Perez | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Mayo Soyoye | C | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Texas2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jordan Pope | G | Sr | 6'1" | 36-35 | 29.0 | 13.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 51.3% | 37.2% | 6.4 | 84.0% | 25.7% | |
| 8 | Matas Vokietaitis | C | So | 7'0" | 36-36 | 26.0 | 15.6 | 7.1 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 61.9% | — | 0.0 | 66.9% | 31.8% | |
| 5 | Camden Heide | F | Jr | 6'7" | 35-29 | 22.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 66.1% | 45.4% | 3.1 | 70.6% | 12.5% | |
| 2 | Chendall Weaver | G | Sr | 6'3" | 36-2 | 20.9 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 47.3% | 21.7% | 1.3 | 71.4% | 17.5% | |
| 7 | Simeon Wilcher | G | Jr | 6'4" | 36-1 | 18.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 45.6% | 33.7% | 2.6 | 91.7% | 20.7% | |
| 10 | Nic Codie | F | So | 6'8" | 24-4 | 15.8 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 50.6% | 14.3% | 0.6 | 63.0% | 16.8% | |
| 23 | Lassina Traore | F | Sr | 6'10" | 23-1 | 15.7 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 44.9% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 66.0% | 15.3% | |
| 4 | Declan Duru Jr. | F | Fr | 6'8" | 12-0 | 7.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 25.0% | 12.9% | |
| 33 | Anthon McDermott | G | Fr | 6'4" | 7-0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 0.6 | — | 15.7% | |
| 1 | Cole Bott | F | Sr | 6'6" | 6-0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 150.0% | 100.0% | 0.2 | — | 7.4% | |
| 44 | Brandon Taylor | G | Sr | 5'10" | 4-0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 30.0% | 25.0% | 1.0 | — | 64.8% | |
| 9 | John Clark | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Lewis Obiorah | C | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Baylor2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Tounde Yessoufou | G | Fr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 32.7 | 17.8 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 52.0% | 29.3% | 5.3 | 74.6% | 31.8% | |
| 5 | Obi Agbim | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-33 | 33.3 | 10.7 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 49.7% | 35.6% | 6.6 | 85.4% | 19.7% | |
| 10 | Isaac Williams IV | G | So | 6'1" | 34-14 | 25.0 | 10.4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 61.5% | 47.1% | 1.5 | 68.4% | 22.5% | |
| 44 | Caden Powell | C | Sr | 6'9" | 34-20 | 24.4 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 67.2% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 66.7% | 14.6% | |
| 12 | Michael Rataj | G | Sr | 6'8" | 34-19 | 23.1 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 45.2% | 21.8% | 1.6 | 70.7% | 21.3% | |
| 0 | Dan Skillings Jr. | G | Sr | 6'6" | 29-16 | 25.5 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 49.6% | 29.7% | 2.6 | 71.2% | 22.6% | |
| 46 | James Nnaji | C | Fr | 7'0" | 18-0 | 8.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 69.2% | — | 0.0 | 57.1% | 11.2% | |
| 2 | Will Kuykendall | G | So | 6'2" | 9-0 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 61.5% | 44.4% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 30.1% | |
| 1 | JJ White | G | Sr | 6'1" | 4-0 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | — | 12.5% | |
| 3 | Drew Perry | G | Fr | 5'10" | 9-0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 42.9% | 28.6% | 0.8 | 66.7% | 26.0% | |
| 13 | James Goodis | G | Jr | 6'0" | 3-0 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 125.0% | 100.0% | 0.3 | — | 12.8% | |
| 7 | Andre Iguodala II | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 21 | Juslin Bodo Bodo | C | Jr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 20 | Maikcol Perez | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Mayo Soyoye | C | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Baylor
Against the spread
Season
14-18-1
Home
6-9-1
Road
5-5
Last 10
4-5-1
avg cover −1.8
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
18-15
Home
11-5
Road
3-7
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −0.1
Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4 | Oklahoma | N | L 69–82 | −1.5 | L−14.5 | 159.5 | U151 | 98.5 | 117.1 | 70.0 |
| Apr 1 | Minnesota | N | W 67–48 | −3.5 | W+15.5 | 146.5 | U115 | 112.7 | 80.7 | 59.5 |
| Mar 10 | Arizona St | N | L 79–83 | −5.0 | L−9.0 | 152.5 | O162 | 111.6 | 117.3 | 70.8 |
| Mar 7 | Utah | H | W 101–75 | −12.0 | W+14.0 | 148.5 | O176 | 159.9 | 118.7 | 63.2 |
| Mar 4 | #7Houston | A | L 64–77 | +13.5 | W+0.5 | 144.5 | U141 | 98.2 | 118.2 | 65.2 |
| Feb 28 | UCF | A | W 87–86 | +1.5 | W+2.5 | 159.0 | O173 | 131.3 | 129.8 | 66.2 |
| Feb 24 | #2Arizona | H | L 80–87 | +7.0 | P0.0 | 155.5 | O167 | 122.2 | 132.9 | 65.4 |
| Feb 21 | Arizona St | H | W 73–68 | −8.5 | L−3.5 | 158.0 | U141 | 111.6 | 104.0 | 65.4 |
| Feb 17 | Kansas St | A | L 74–90 | −3.5 | L−19.5 | 159.0 | O164 | 91.3 | 111.1 | 81.0 |
| Feb 14 | #24Louisville | N | L 71–82 | +7.0 | L−4.0 | 161.5 | U153 | 104.6 | 120.8 | 67.9 |
Texas
Against the spread
Season
20-15
Home
8-9
Road
7-3
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −1.2
Covered 4 straightCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
20-15
Home
10-7
Road
7-3
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +0.1
Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26 | #2Purdue | N | L 77–79 | +8.5 | W+6.5 | 146.5 | O156 | 126.6 | 129.9 | 60.8 |
| Mar 21 | #3Gonzaga | N | W 74–68 | +6.0 | W+12.0 | 147.5 | U142 | 115.6 | 106.3 | 64.0 |
| Mar 19 | #6BYU | N | W 79–71 | +2.5 | W+10.5 | 158.0 | U150 | 118.0 | 106.0 | 67.0 |
| Mar 17 | #11NC State | N | W 68–66 | +1.0 | W+3.0 | 157.5 | U134 | 100.5 | 97.5 | 67.7 |
| Mar 11 | Ole Miss | N | L 66–76 | −6.0 | L−16.0 | 148.0 | U142 | 94.7 | 109.1 | 69.7 |
| Mar 7 | Oklahoma | H | L 85–88 OT | −6.5 | L−9.5 | 153.5 | O173 | 109.7 | 113.6 | 77.5 |
| Mar 4 | #20Arkansas | A | L 85–105 | +7.0 | L−13.0 | 164.5 | O190 | 107.5 | 132.8 | 79.0 |
| Feb 28 | Texas A&M | A | W 76–70 | +2.5 | W+8.5 | 160.5 | U146 | 110.5 | 101.8 | 68.8 |
| Feb 25 | #7Florida | H | L 71–84 | +7.0 | L−6.0 | 158.5 | U155 | 110.0 | 130.1 | 64.5 |
| Feb 21 | Georgia | A | L 80–91 | +3.0 | L−8.0 | 163.5 | O171 | 129.0 | 146.7 | 62.0 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeBaylorTexas
Efficiency
116.4
117.6
107.6
106.4
68.6
67.8
—
—
Shooting
53.4%
54.1%
55.2%
54.8%
33.9%
35.1%
73.5%
74.4%
34.1%
44.2%
Ball control & glass
16.3%
15.0%
15.9%
13.0%
36.9%
35.4%
31.3%
26.9%
9.7%
9.1%
8.8%
10.0%
Style
39.7%
35.8%
44.8%
42.2%
13.6%
14.9%
52.2%
43.7%
22.3%
30.9%
Roster
3.01
3.13
6'5.3"
6'6"
83.1%
69.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputBaylor
Returning minutes: 83.1%Returning production: 77.9%
Lost
- Cameron Carr 33.7 mpg, 18.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Maikcol Perez no D1 minutes last season
- Mayo Soyoye no D1 minutes last season
- Andre Iguodala II no D1 minutes last season
- Juslin Bodo Bodo no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Texas
Returning minutes: 69.6%Returning production: 60.5%
Lost
- Dailyn Swain 32.9 mpg, 17.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tramon Mark 28.3 mpg, 14.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Lewis Obiorah no D1 minutes last season
- John Clark no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 70% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.