South Carolina State Bulldogs vs Charleston Cougars basketball preview & prediction

Sun, Nov 15 · 2:00 PM ET · TD Arena, Charleston, SC

Non-conferenceTD Arena, Charleston, SC

SC State

3-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #300

Charleston

2025-26: 21-11 · 14-5 conf

Efficiency #157

Sun, Nov 15 · 2:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, SC State is the faster team (73.7, #91 of 365) and Charleston the slower (68.3, #187). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

72.9

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

72.7#62

SC State

70.8#168

Charleston

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Charleston has the ball−4.5

SC State has the ball+2.3

Charleston has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 50.5% #212 · SCST allows 40.6% #31−5.0

✓Gets to the lineFTR 41.2% #43 · SCST allows 71.3% #356 · FT 73.6% #147+2.2

✗Few second chancesOR% 29.9% #204 · SCST allows 27.1% #109−1.4

✗Coughs it upTO% 15.7% #118 · SCST forces 21.0% #85 · ~14 turnovers−0.4

SC State has the ball

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 14.9% #84 · COFC forces 14.7% #308 · ~10 turnovers+3.7

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 50.0% #176 · COFC allows 49.2% #74−0.7

✗Few second chancesOR% 29.7% #216 · COFC allows 32.3% #273−0.4

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 33.9% #216 · COFC allows 26.1% #15 · FT 76.7% #76−0.3

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

SC Stateoffense vsCharlestondefense

Share of shots by zone

SC State shoots

28.6

12.6

19.3

39.5

Charleston allows

32.7

7.4

16.1

43.7

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	47.1%#300	59.7%#214	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	53.3%#73	27.6%#6	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	26.1%#242	39.4%#217	34.7%
Three	38.8%#74	32.6%#90	32.5%

Charlestonoffense vsSC Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

Charleston shoots

37.4

9.5

15.7

37.5

SC State allows

40.4

3.2

11.7

44.7

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.4%#12	50.0%#75	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.2%#299	33.3%#125	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.9%#315	27.3%#106	34.7%
Three	30.6%#331	22.7%#28	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

SC State

−4.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#241 of 365

Off reb %

29.7%

#216

Def reb %

72.9%

#109

Turnover %

14.9%

#84

Forced TO %

21.0%

#85

FT rate

33.9%

#216

FT allowed

71.3%

#356

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.6

Defensive rebounding+1.5

Ball security+2.3

Forcing turnovers+2.1

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed−8.7

Charleston

+2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#74 of 365

Off reb %

29.9%

#204

Def reb %

67.7%

#273

Turnover %

15.7%

#118

Forced TO %

14.7%

#308

FT rate

41.2%

#43

FT allowed

26.1%

#15

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.2

Defensive rebounding−0.6

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers−1.4

Foul shots drawn+1.6

Foul shots allowed+2.3

Charleston has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.6 (#74 of 365) to SC State’s −4.2 (#241).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

SC State2026-27 numbers · last game: Chicago St, Nov 9

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	PG	Jr	6'2"	3-0	27.0	28	—	Bench	8.3	2.3	4.7	1.3	63.2%	—	0.0	50.0%	15.5%
0	G	So	6'5"	3-3	25.3	31	—	Started last	15.7	2.3	0.3	0.7	55.1%	38.2%	11.3	80.0%	29.9%
12	G	Jr	6'3"	3-3	21.0	14	—	Started last	9.0	2.7	4.0	1.0	56.7%	33.3%	1.0	100.0%	18.8%
13	F	So	6'7"	3-3	18.0	17	—	Started last	9.7	4.7	0.0	0.0	57.9%	—	0.0	63.6%	23.6%
10	F	Fr	6'9"	3-3	16.3	23	—	Started last	5.3	2.7	1.3	1.3	68.2%	60.0%	1.7	100.0%	16.5%
55	F	Jr	6'6"	3-3	15.3	20	—	Started last	4.0	7.0	2.0	1.0	27.8%	0.0%	1.0	40.0%	26.6%
6	F	Jr	6'7"	3-0	13.3	10	—	Bench	6.3	4.0	0.7	1.0	35.3%	0.0%	0.7	70.0%	31.6%
4	G	Jr	6'8"	3-0	13.0	16	—	Bench	6.0	2.0	0.3	0.3	38.2%	27.3%	3.7	100.0%	27.3%
2	PG	Fr	5'11"	3-0	11.0	8	—	Bench	6.3	0.3	0.7	0.3	56.7%	41.7%	4.0	100.0%	26.4%
7	F	So	6'10"	2-0	15.5	22	—	Bench	6.0	2.0	1.5	1.0	80.0%	—	0.0	66.7%	17.3%
3	G	Fr	6'5"	3-0	8.0	—	—	Active	3.0	0.7	0.3	1.3	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	24.0%
92	F	So	6'10"	3-0	7.3	—	—	Active	0.7	2.3	0.7	0.0	25.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	10.1%
23	F	So	6'8"	3-0	7.3	3	—	Bench	3.7	1.7	0.0	1.0	55.6%	—	0.0	50.0%	30.3%
5	G	Jr	6'5"	3-0	6.7	—	—	Active	2.7	1.7	0.3	1.3	26.9%	25.0%	1.3	50.0%	44.5%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

SC State

Against the spread

Season

2-0

Home

0-0

Road

2-0

Last 10

2-0

avg cover +14.2

Covered 2 straight

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

0-0

Road

1-1

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total +2.0

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	Chicago StAdjEM #349	A	W 82–67	+2.0	W+17.0	144.5	O149	114.7	93.7	71.5
Nov 6	SC UpstateAdjEM #310	A	W 78–70	+3.5	W+11.5	148.5	U148	102.9	92.3	75.8
Nov 2	Morris Hornets	H	W 94–55	—	—	—	—	114.2	66.8	82.3
Mar 13	HowardAdjEM #170	N	L 61–78	+15.5	L−1.5	146.0	U139	82.8	105.9	73.6
Mar 12	Norfolk StAdjEM #314	N	W 88–82	+8.5	W+14.5	144.5	O170	116.6	108.6	75.5
Mar 5	NC CentralAdjEM #311	A	W 80–64	+7.5	W+23.5	141.5	O144	114.6	91.7	69.8
Mar 2	Delaware StAdjEM #342	A	W 61–59	+3.0	W+5.0	134.5	U120	99.9	96.6	61.1
Feb 28	MD EasternAdjEM #323	A	L 57–69	+6.0	L−6.0	132.5	U126	85.9	104.0	66.3
Feb 25	Morgan StAdjEM #325	H	L 83–90	+1.5	L−5.5	154.5	O173	113.8	123.4	73.0
Feb 21	Norfolk StAdjEM #314	A	L 71–90	+10.0	L−9.0	140.5	O161	99.5	126.1	71.4

Charleston

Against the spread

Season

19-12

Home

8-6

Road

9-3

Last 10

7-3

avg cover −0.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

13-18

Home

5-9

Road

7-5

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −7.3

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 6	Newberry Wolves	H	W 112–66	—	—	—	—	139.6	82.3	80.2
Nov 2	Southern Wesleyan Warriors	H	W 111–55	—	—	—	—	136.6	67.7	81.3
Mar 8	TowsonAdjEM #150	N	L 56–81	−2.5	L−27.5	139.0	U137	92.7	134.0	60.4
Mar 1	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #114	A	W 79–76	+5.0	W+8.0	147.0	O155	122.6	117.9	64.5
Feb 26	HamptonAdjEM #273	A	W 85–71	−5.5	W+8.5	139.5	O156	124.3	103.8	68.4
Feb 21	MonmouthAdjEM #176	H	W 74–63	−5.0	W+6.0	150.0	U137	109.9	93.5	67.4
Feb 19	NC A&TAdjEM #268	A	W 74–61	−5.0	W+8.0	146.0	U135	116.7	96.2	63.4
Feb 15	CampbellAdjEM #248	A	W 62–57	+2.5	W+7.5	160.0	U119	102.0	93.8	60.8
Feb 12	HofstraAdjEM #105	H	L 62–66	−1.0	L−5.0	146.0	U128	88.3	94.0	70.2
Feb 9	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #114	H	L 64–76	−2.0	L−14.0	149.0	U140	94.1	111.8	68.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

SC StateCharleston

Efficiency

99.5

105.8

108.9

105.3

72.7

70.8

-13.4

—

Shooting

50.0%

50.5%

44.9%

53.4%

38.8%

30.6%

76.7%

73.6%

33.9%

41.2%

Ball control & glass

14.9%

15.7%

21.0%

14.7%

29.7%

29.9%

27.1%

32.3%

4.8%

9.3%

2.6%

8.6%

Style

38.6%

38.1%

36.3%

45.3%

9.4%

14.0%

59.3%

52.6%

52.0%

32.4%

Roster

2.31

2.66

6'5.5"

6'4.3"

29.6%

15.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

SC State

Returning minutes: 29.6%Returning production: 26.8%

Lost

Jayden Johnson 27.4 mpg, 13.4 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green
Florian Tenebay 22.2 mpg, 6.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Obie Bronston Jr. 17.8 mpg, 8.7 ppg · transferred to Cleveland St
Cameron Clark 16.8 mpg, 6.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Rayniel Wright 16.3 mpg, 3.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
James Morrow 15.6 mpg, 5.8 ppg · transferred to Jacksonville

Added

DeShaun Jackson Jr. from Mercyhurst · 22.4 mpg, 6.0 ppg last season
Brian Harris new to D1 · 16.0 mpg, 5.0 ppg last season
Mitchell Taylor no D1 minutes last season
Treven Raymon no D1 minutes last season
Bryce Adams no D1 minutes last season
Andre NGomabie no D1 minutes last season

Returns 30% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Charleston

Returning minutes: 15.1%Returning production: 10.6%

Lost

Jlynn Counter 29.9 mpg, 15.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Connor Hickman 24.2 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Christian Reeves 20.7 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Kansas
Chol Machot 19.7 mpg, 8.9 ppg · transferred to Georgetown
Chris Davis Jr. 17.8 mpg, 7.4 ppg · transferred to South Florida
Chadlyn Traylor 17.3 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Wright St

Added

Tavari Johnson from Akron · 31.9 mpg, 19.7 ppg last season
Ben Bradford from Charlotte · 28.2 mpg, 13.5 ppg last season
Eli Ellis from South Carolina · 23.5 mpg, 7.5 ppg last season
Xavier Abreu from Northeastern · 19.6 mpg, 11.7 ppg last season
Trey Scott from Georgia St · 16.8 mpg, 4.3 ppg last season
Max Green from Northwestern · 10.0 mpg, 2.9 ppg last season

Returns 15% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Fri, Nov 14	2025-26	SC State 61 – 88 Charleston

More games on Sun, Nov 15

Niagara at Iowa State · 1:00 PM ET
Harvard at American · 1:00 PM ET
Louisville at Memphis · 1:00 PM ET
Dartmouth at Boston U · 1:00 PM ET
Colgate at Delaware · 1:00 PM ET
Quinnipiac at C Connecticut · 1:00 PM ET
Norfolk St at Georgia St · 1:00 PM ET
Boise St vs Nebraska · 1:00 PM ET
New Hampshire at Boston College · 1:30 PM ET
William & Mary at Michigan · 2:00 PM ET
Princeton at Rhode Island · 2:00 PM ET
Bakersfield at N Dakota St · 2:00 PM ET
UAlbany at Holy Cross · 2:00 PM ET
Temple at La Salle · 2:00 PM ET
Missouri vs Marquette · 2:30 PM ET
Baylor vs Texas · 3:00 PM ET
Creighton vs Iowa · 3:00 PM ET
High Point at Saint Louis · 3:00 PM ET
Cleveland St at Alabama A&M · 3:00 PM ET
Purdue FW at E Illinois · 3:00 PM ET
Chicago St at LMU · 4:00 PM ET
Mercyhurst at James Madison · 4:00 PM ET
New Mexico St vs San Diego St · 4:00 PM ET
New Haven at Penn State · 4:30 PM ET
W Michigan at S Indiana · 4:30 PM ET
Pepperdine at Oregon · 5:00 PM ET
Canisius at Buffalo · 5:30 PM ET
Cal Poly at Montana St · 6:00 PM ET
Syracuse at St John's · 7:00 PM ET
AR-Pine Bluff at USC · 7:00 PM ET
Coastal at Wisconsin · 8:00 PM ET
Texas St at UTSA · 8:00 PM ET
Florida A&M at UTEP · 8:00 PM ET
Alabama St at San José St · 9:00 PM ET

← Sat, Nov 14 · Mon, Nov 16 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.