CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBob Carpenter Center, Newark, DE
Colgate
Efficiency #223
2025-26: 18-15 · 12-8 conf
@
Delaware
Efficiency #302
2025-26: 10-21 · 6-14 conf
Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
71.7
win 48%
Projected
72.2
win 52%
No line posted yet.
Model: DEL −0.5 · total 143.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Delaware 65.5, Colgate 68.0 → 65.2 possessions
−6.8
Delaware offense vs Colgate defense
−0.4
Colgate offense vs Delaware defense
+2.8
Projected total
143.8
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Delaware offense vs Colgate defense
−0.4
Colgate offense vs Delaware defense
−2.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Delaware by 0.5
0.5
Colgate side ◂▸ Delaware side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +0.6 against +0.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Delaware.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Colgate is the faster team (66.9, #246 of 365) and Delaware the slower (63.9, #356). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
143.8
model
Projected team totals
71.7 / 72.2
Colgate / Delaware
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#213
Colgate
65.5#356
Delaware
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageDelaware
Where Delaware struggles: the offensive glass
Delaware rebounds 20.8% of its own misses (#362); Colgate lets opponents grab 29.3% of their own misses (#125). Expect about 23.2%, 7.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.4 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Delaware averages 63.9 possessions per 40, Colgate 66.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageColgate
Where Colgate scores: ball control
Colgate turns it over on 14.6% of possessions (#47); Delaware forces turnovers on 14.0% of opponent possessions (#334). Expect about 13.8%, 3.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Delaware) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Colgate at about 38.4% of its shots from three, Delaware about 46.3%.
ClashColgate
Style clash: 3-point volume
Colgate rarely shoots threes (35.0% of its shots); Delaware lets opponents take 43.4% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.4% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Colgate has the ball
OffenseDelaware allowsvs D1 avg
53.3% #91
51.5% #185
+1.8 pt/100
14.6% #47
14.0% #334
+3.6 pt/100
26.6% #309
31.1% #206
-1.4 pt/100
29.7% #316
30.2% #62
-0.7 pt/100
74.7% #97
—
+0.2 pt/100
Colgate net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.5 pts/100
Delaware has the ball
OffenseColgate allowsvs D1 avg
53.3% #89
52.2% #224
+2.3 pt/100
18.2% #285
15.3% #266
+0.1 pt/100
20.8% #362
29.3% #125
-4.4 pt/100
30.6% #291
33.8% #145
-0.4 pt/100
78.6% #10
—
+0.5 pt/100
Delaware net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.7 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersColgateoffense vsDelawaredefense
Share of shots by zone
Colgate shoots
37.9
6.0
21.2
34.9
Delaware allows
33.6
5.7
17.4
43.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.3%#155 | 59.3%#206 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.3%#98 | 38.0%#136 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.8%#18 | 36.1%#112 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.6%#81 | 35.1%#255 | 33.7% |
Delawareoffense vsColgatedefense
Share of shots by zone
Delaware shoots
33.1
6.3
14.6
46.0
Colgate allows
38.5
6.2
13.8
41.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.4%#179 | 59.1%#193 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 39.6%#185 | 39.3%#163 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.0%#144 | 38.5%#178 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.8%#31 | 34.8%#238 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersColgate
−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#247 of 365
Off reb %
26.6%
#309
Def reb %
70.7%
#125
Turnover %
14.6%
#47
Forced TO %
15.3%
#266
FT rate
29.7%
#316
FT allowed
33.8%
#145
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.2
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+1.5
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn−1.4
Foul shots allowed+0.4
Delaware
−5.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#355 of 365
Off reb %
20.8%
#362
Def reb %
68.9%
#206
Turnover %
18.2%
#285
Forced TO %
14.0%
#334
FT rate
30.6%
#291
FT allowed
30.2%
#62
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.1
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers−1.8
Foul shots drawn−1.1
Foul shots allowed+1.3
Colgate has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.3 (#247 of 365) to Delaware’s −5.9 (#355).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Colgate2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jalen Cox | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-31 | 34.2 | 17.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 54.5% | 36.5% | 1.7 | 85.0% | 30.5% | |
| 22 | Andrew Alekseyenko | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-33 | 29.7 | 14.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 55.4% | 38.3% | 3.2 | 78.1% | 30.2% | |
| 33 | Sam Wright | F | Jr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 25.6 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 55.9% | 31.2% | 3.8 | 60.2% | 27.7% | |
| 4 | Josh Ahayere | G | So | 6'3" | 32-24 | 25.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 55.1% | 36.9% | 2.0 | 74.0% | 17.5% | |
| 13 | Kyle Carlesimo | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-2 | 24.5 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 51.7% | 36.0% | 5.0 | 84.6% | 19.9% | |
| 23 | Cooper Wright | F | Jr | 6'5" | 30-0 | 12.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 61.5% | — | 0.0 | 30.0% | 8.8% | |
| 15 | Ayomi Odetoyinbo | F | Fr | 6'10" | 33-0 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 57.4% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 54.5% | 12.1% | |
| 1 | Brady Cummins | G | Sr | 6'6" | 18-9 | 16.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 40.8% | 34.3% | 1.9 | 90.0% | 18.4% | |
| 0 | Ethan Brown | F | So | 6'10" | 17-0 | 7.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 31.6% | 25.0% | 0.5 | 82.4% | 15.4% | |
| 9 | Cameron Brennan | F | So | 7'0" | 13-0 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 31.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 100.0% | 23.5% | |
| 5 | Charlie Pugh | G | Fr | 6'4" | 8-0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 66.7% | 50.0% | 0.5 | — | 15.6% | |
| 8 | Jonathan Niv | G | Fr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 81.3% | 60.0% | 0.6 | 100.0% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Blake Forrest | G | So | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Parker Jones | G | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Stevie Clark | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Delaware2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00 | Christian Bliss | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-31 | 39.8 | 16.7 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 51.5% | 39.2% | 5.5 | 84.8% | 27.4% | |
| 5 | Macon Emory | F | So | 6'8" | 31-31 | 37.1 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49.8% | 28.5% | 4.9 | 75.4% | 21.0% | |
| 4 | Justyn Fernandez | G | Sr | 6'5" | 28-28 | 37.4 | 16.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 52.9% | 40.3% | 5.7 | 87.8% | 29.6% | |
| 20 | Alex Kazanecki | G | Fr | 6'6" | 31-13 | 28.7 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 57.5% | 37.1% | 3.1 | 72.2% | 10.9% | |
| 44 | Tyler Houser | F | Sr | 6'9" | 26-26 | 33.3 | 14.2 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 57.4% | 38.3% | 4.1 | 81.7% | 24.6% | |
| 11 | Jayden Taylor | F | Fr | 6'8" | 31-10 | 15.3 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 61.7% | 33.3% | 0.4 | 61.8% | 12.4% | |
| 15 | Houston Emory | F | Sr | 6'9" | 24-5 | 11.1 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 72.7% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 10.3% | |
| 1 | Mason Ellison | G | Fr | 6'4" | 7-1 | 21.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 40.6% | 16.7% | 1.7 | 58.3% | 18.1% | |
| 55 | Jameel Brown | G | Sr | 6'4" | 4-4 | 23.5 | 9.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 46.9% | 42.1% | 4.8 | 75.0% | 27.8% | |
| 35 | Bouna Kebe | F | Sr | 6'9" | 14-5 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 42.5% | 12.5% | 0.6 | 0.0% | 17.4% | |
| 21 | Nnanna Njoku | F | Sr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 50.0% | 25.0% | |
| 3 | Cavan Reilly | G | Sr | 6'4" | 1-1 | 23.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 12.5% | 0.0% | 5.0 | 50.0% | 26.2% | |
| 10 | Brandon Baffone | G | Jr | 6'1" | 5-0 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 8.4% | |
| 12 | Alex McFadden | G | So | 6'1" | 4-0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 27.4% | |
| 14 | Lance Piper | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Colgate2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jalen Cox | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-31 | 34.2 | 17.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 54.5% | 36.5% | 1.7 | 85.0% | 30.5% | |
| 22 | Andrew Alekseyenko | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-33 | 29.7 | 14.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 55.4% | 38.3% | 3.2 | 78.1% | 30.2% | |
| 33 | Sam Wright | F | Jr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 25.6 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 55.9% | 31.2% | 3.8 | 60.2% | 27.7% | |
| 4 | Josh Ahayere | G | So | 6'3" | 32-24 | 25.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 55.1% | 36.9% | 2.0 | 74.0% | 17.5% | |
| 13 | Kyle Carlesimo | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-2 | 24.5 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 51.7% | 36.0% | 5.0 | 84.6% | 19.9% | |
| 23 | Cooper Wright | F | Jr | 6'5" | 30-0 | 12.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 61.5% | — | 0.0 | 30.0% | 8.8% | |
| 15 | Ayomi Odetoyinbo | F | Fr | 6'10" | 33-0 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 57.4% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 54.5% | 12.1% | |
| 1 | Brady Cummins | G | Sr | 6'6" | 18-9 | 16.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 40.8% | 34.3% | 1.9 | 90.0% | 18.4% | |
| 0 | Ethan Brown | F | So | 6'10" | 17-0 | 7.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 31.6% | 25.0% | 0.5 | 82.4% | 15.4% | |
| 9 | Cameron Brennan | F | So | 7'0" | 13-0 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 31.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 100.0% | 23.5% | |
| 5 | Charlie Pugh | G | Fr | 6'4" | 8-0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 66.7% | 50.0% | 0.5 | — | 15.6% | |
| 8 | Jonathan Niv | G | Fr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 81.3% | 60.0% | 0.6 | 100.0% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Blake Forrest | G | So | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Parker Jones | G | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Stevie Clark | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Colgate
Against the spread
Season
12-19
Home
4-9
Road
7-9
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −4.3
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
17-14
Home
9-4
Road
8-8
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +5.8
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | Lehigh | A | L 69–76 | −2.0 | L−9.0 | 146.0 | U145 | 100.7 | 110.9 | 68.5 |
| Mar 5 | Loyola MD | H | W 90–77 | −5.5 | W+7.5 | 154.0 | O167 | 139.5 | 119.4 | 64.5 |
| Feb 28 | Navy | A | L 69–85 | +6.5 | L−9.5 | 142.0 | O154 | 103.7 | 127.8 | 66.5 |
| Feb 25 | Lafayette | H | L 69–70 | −8.5 | L−9.5 | 147.5 | U139 | 110.6 | 112.2 | 62.4 |
| Feb 21 | Loyola MD | H | W 101–98 OT | −8.5 | L−5.5 | 149.5 | O199 | 115.7 | 112.3 | 87.3 |
| Feb 16 | Boston U | A | L 58–85 | −2.0 | L−29.0 | 146.0 | U143 | 101.3 | 148.4 | 57.3 |
| Feb 14 | Navy | H | L 80–84 OT | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 139.0 | O164 | 111.8 | 117.4 | 71.6 |
| Feb 11 | Holy Cross | A | W 74–70 | −8.0 | L−4.0 | 143.0 | O144 | 108.1 | 102.3 | 68.5 |
| Feb 7 | Bucknell | A | W 78–59 | −5.0 | W+14.0 | 141.5 | U137 | 106.3 | 80.4 | 73.4 |
| Feb 4 | Army | H | W 69–55 | −10.0 | W+4.0 | 149.5 | U124 | 107.3 | 85.6 | 64.3 |
Delaware
Against the spread
Season
14-15-1
Home
6-7-1
Road
7-7
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +0.9
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 10 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
10-4
Road
6-8
Last 10
8-2
avg vs total +13.9
Under in the last gameOver in 8 of 10 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Louisiana Tech | H | L 38–81 | +2.0 | L−41.0 | 132.5 | U119 | 60.3 | 128.5 | 63.0 |
| Mar 5 | Sam Houston | H | W 83–80 | +7.5 | W+10.5 | 148.0 | O163 | 116.7 | 112.4 | 71.2 |
| Feb 28 | Kennesaw St | A | L 82–90 | +12.0 | W+4.0 | 143.0 | O172 | 117.9 | 129.4 | 69.5 |
| Feb 26 | Jax State | A | L 70–80 OT | +7.5 | L−2.5 | 134.0 | O150 | 104.8 | 119.8 | 66.8 |
| Feb 21 | MTSU | A | L 66–78 | +10.0 | L−2.0 | 137.5 | O144 | 106.5 | 125.8 | 62.0 |
| Feb 18 | Western KY | H | L 87–88 OT | +4.0 | W+3.0 | 139.5 | O175 | 125.3 | 126.7 | 69.4 |
| Feb 14 | Missouri St | A | W 76–67 | +8.5 | W+17.5 | 135.0 | O143 | 121.0 | 106.7 | 62.8 |
| Feb 12 | FIU | A | W 68–66 | +8.5 | W+10.5 | 146.5 | U134 | 101.9 | 98.9 | 66.8 |
| Feb 7 | MTSU | H | W 89–88 OT | +4.5 | W+5.5 | 133.5 | O177 | 129.9 | 128.5 | 68.5 |
| Feb 4 | Liberty | H | L 69–75 | +10.0 | W+4.0 | 132.0 | O144 | 110.6 | 120.2 | 62.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeColgateDelaware
Efficiency
108.6
105.2
111.2
112.6
68.0
65.5
—
—
Shooting
53.3%
53.3%
53.2%
51.7%
35.6%
36.8%
74.7%
78.6%
29.7%
30.6%
Ball control & glass
14.6%
18.2%
15.3%
14.0%
26.6%
20.8%
29.3%
31.1%
8.4%
11.4%
6.3%
10.4%
Style
35.0%
46.2%
44.4%
36.8%
12.6%
6.9%
51.4%
52.3%
29.0%
15.7%
Roster
2.54
2.72
6'5.6"
6'6.4"
85.6%
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputColgate
Returning minutes: 85.6%Returning production: 88.2%
Lost
- Ben Tweedy 29.4 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to Manhattan
Added
- Parker Jones no D1 minutes last season
- Stevie Clark no D1 minutes last season
- Blake Forrest no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Delaware
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.