CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceEvent Center, Huntsville, AL
Cleveland St
Efficiency #330
2025-26: 11-22 · 7-15 conf
@
Alabama A&M
Efficiency #312
2025-26: 18-15 · 11-9 conf
Sun, Nov 15 · TBD
75.2
win 33%
Projected
80.4
win 67%
No line posted yet.
Model: AAMU −5.2 · total 155.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Alabama A&M 66.9, Cleveland St 69.9 → 68.5 possessions
+0.3
Alabama A&M offense vs Cleveland St defense
+4.2
Cleveland St offense vs Alabama A&M defense
+2.9
Projected total
155.7
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Alabama A&M offense vs Cleveland St defense
+4.2
Cleveland St offense vs Alabama A&M defense
−2.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Alabama A&M by 5.2
5.2
Cleveland St side ◂▸ Alabama A&M side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 155.6 against a projected 155.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Alabama A&M.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cleveland St is the faster team (71.4, #39 of 365) and Alabama A&M the slower (67.3, #232). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
155.7
model
Projected team totals
75.2 / 80.4
Cleveland St / Alabama A&M
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.9#59
Cleveland St
66.9#296
Alabama A&M
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageCleveland St
Where Cleveland St scores: shooting
Cleveland St shoots an effective 54.2% (#62); Alabama A&M allows 52.1% (#220). Expect about 53.4%, 2.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageAlabama A&M
Where Alabama A&M scores: shooting
Alabama A&M shoots an effective 49.2% (#281); Cleveland St allows 57.2% (#360). Expect about 53.1%, 1.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Cleveland St) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Cleveland St at about 46.6% of its shots from three, Alabama A&M about 38.0%.
GlassCleveland St
Cleveland St gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.6% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Cleveland St's offense.
ClashAlabama A&M
Style clash: 3-point volume
Alabama A&M rarely shoots threes (34.0% of its shots); Cleveland St lets opponents take 44.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.0% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashAlabama A&M
Style clash: ball movement
Alabama A&M creates off the dribble (assists on 48.0% of its baskets); Cleveland St allows assists on 58.6% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 53.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
Cleveland St has the ball
OffenseAlabama A&M allowsvs D1 avg
54.2% #62
52.1% #220
+3.0 pt/100
17.8% #262
16.6% #177
-0.6 pt/100
27.0% #294
29.5% #137
-1.7 pt/100
37.9% #105
38.6% #275
+0.4 pt/100
76.2% #48
—
+0.3 pt/100
Cleveland St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.4 pts/100
Alabama A&M has the ball
OffenseCleveland St allowsvs D1 avg
49.2% #281
57.2% #360
+2.6 pt/100
16.5% #165
15.1% #278
+1.5 pt/100
27.5% #283
36.6% #356
+0.6 pt/100
45.4% #3
35.5% #196
+0.7 pt/100
73.8% #141
—
+0.1 pt/100
Alabama A&M net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersCleveland Stoffense vsAlabama A&Mdefense
Share of shots by zone
Cleveland St shoots
33.2
4.9
11.2
50.7
Alabama A&M allows
40.2
5.0
18.2
36.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.0%#160 | 62.2%#302 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 35.6%#275 | 32.9%#28 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.1%#310 | 32.0%#17 | 38.0% |
| Three | 37.5%#21 | 35.4%#272 | 33.7% |
Alabama A&Moffense vsCleveland Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Alabama A&M shoots
39.7
4.9
21.3
34.1
Cleveland St allows
38.0
6.0
12.0
44.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 54.8%#304 | 67.1%#361 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.5%#236 | 43.0%#252 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.4%#304 | 42.0%#305 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.0%#114 | 36.2%#309 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersCleveland St
−4.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#331 of 365
Off reb %
27.0%
#294
Def reb %
63.4%
#356
Turnover %
17.8%
#262
Forced TO %
15.1%
#278
FT rate
37.9%
#105
FT allowed
35.5%
#196
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding−1.9
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Alabama A&M
+1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#126 of 365
Off reb %
27.5%
#283
Def reb %
70.5%
#137
Turnover %
16.5%
#165
Forced TO %
16.6%
#177
FT rate
45.4%
#3
FT allowed
38.6%
#275
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.9
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security+0.2
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn+2.7
Foul shots allowed−0.9
Alabama A&M has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.3 (#126 of 365) to Cleveland St’s −4.2 (#331).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Cleveland St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tre Beard | G | Sr | 5'10" | 30-30 | 30.9 | 12.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 58.6% | 41.9% | 6.8 | 85.7% | 20.5% | |
| 2 | Jaidon Lipscomb | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-32 | 27.4 | 12.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 61.2% | 41.7% | 7.0 | 85.5% | 24.5% | |
| 1 | Chevalier Emery | G | Jr | 6'0" | 33-1 | 21.8 | 12.7 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 54.9% | 38.2% | 4.0 | 78.0% | 32.3% | |
| 7 | Dayan Nessah | F | So | 6'7" | 26-26 | 27.4 | 15.5 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 57.0% | 33.3% | 0.9 | 75.0% | 30.9% | |
| 0 | Foster Wonders | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-9 | 22.1 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 53.0% | 34.4% | 3.9 | 72.7% | 13.7% | |
| 22 | Josiah Harris | F | Jr | 6'7" | 22-14 | 26.6 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 49.4% | 33.0% | 4.1 | 81.3% | 20.4% | |
| 24 | Kamari Jones | G | So | 6'4" | 23-4 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 47.1% | 31.7% | 2.6 | 78.3% | 23.6% | |
| 5 | David Giddens | G | Jr | 6'7" | 22-3 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 51.4% | 29.6% | 2.5 | 70.0% | 22.3% | |
| 23 | Manny Hill | G | Sr | 6'0" | 19-0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 47.4% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 69.2% | 23.6% | |
| 15 | Ivan Spirov | F | Jr | 6'8" | 17-0 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 54.4% | 33.3% | 0.5 | — | 18.7% | |
| 13 | Lucas Burton | F | Sr | 6'8" | 13-1 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 61.5% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 66.7% | 19.3% | |
| 50 | Kevo St. Hilaire | F | Fr | 6'10" | 15-0 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 58.3% | — | 0.0 | 40.0% | 14.4% | |
| 11 | Waqo Tessema | G | Jr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Alabama A&M2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Alabama A&M's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00 | Kintavious Dozier | G | Sr | 6'1" | 33-33 | 32.3 | 14.7 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 49.3% | 37.1% | 3.8 | 84.0% | 27.3% | |
| 1 | Koron Davis | G | Jr | 6'7" | 33-33 | 29.4 | 14.9 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 49.4% | 32.2% | 3.7 | 82.6% | 30.4% | |
| 3 | Sami Pissis | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-28 | 29.8 | 10.4 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 46.5% | 32.4% | 3.7 | 72.6% | 24.1% | |
| 10 | PJ Eason | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-31 | 26.0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 53.0% | — | 0.0 | 60.6% | 18.5% | |
| 21 | James Graham III | G | Jr | 6'8" | 27-22 | 25.1 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 54.8% | 39.1% | 2.4 | 76.2% | 24.0% | |
| 24 | Lou Hutchinson | G | Jr | 6'7" | 33-5 | 16.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 36.1% | 1.8 | 80.6% | 14.4% | |
| 4 | Gabe Kincy | G | Jr | 6'7" | 21-3 | 19.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 48.4% | 35.7% | 1.3 | 75.0% | 14.2% | |
| 2 | Bilal Abdur-Rahman | G | So | 5'11" | 30-3 | 12.4 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 49.5% | 35.3% | 1.1 | 67.6% | 22.1% | |
| 30 | James Flippin | F | Sr | 6'10" | 26-4 | 9.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 37.7% | 21.1% | 0.7 | 52.0% | 26.2% | |
| 13 | Angok Anyang | F | Jr | 6'9" | 26-2 | 7.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 56.5% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.0% | 10.9% | |
| 5 | Jalen Carruth | G | So | 6'7" | 14-0 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 48.3% | 35.0% | 1.4 | 60.0% | 16.8% | |
| 23 | Samuel Onu | F | Jr | 6'11" | 17-0 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 43.8% | 13.5% | |
| 11 | Tajden Davis | G | Jr | 6'5" | 20-1 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 44.1% | 20.0% | 0.3 | 71.4% | 15.8% | |
| 8 | Peyton Daniels Sr. | G | Jr | 6'3" | 7-0 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 58.1% | 46.2% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 27.5% | |
| 20 | Isaiah Ramey | G | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Jayden Jackson | G | Fr | 5'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Cleveland St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tre Beard | G | Sr | 5'10" | 30-30 | 30.9 | 12.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 58.6% | 41.9% | 6.8 | 85.7% | 20.5% | |
| 2 | Jaidon Lipscomb | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-32 | 27.4 | 12.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 61.2% | 41.7% | 7.0 | 85.5% | 24.5% | |
| 1 | Chevalier Emery | G | Jr | 6'0" | 33-1 | 21.8 | 12.7 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 54.9% | 38.2% | 4.0 | 78.0% | 32.3% | |
| 7 | Dayan Nessah | F | So | 6'7" | 26-26 | 27.4 | 15.5 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 57.0% | 33.3% | 0.9 | 75.0% | 30.9% | |
| 0 | Foster Wonders | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-9 | 22.1 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 53.0% | 34.4% | 3.9 | 72.7% | 13.7% | |
| 22 | Josiah Harris | F | Jr | 6'7" | 22-14 | 26.6 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 49.4% | 33.0% | 4.1 | 81.3% | 20.4% | |
| 24 | Kamari Jones | G | So | 6'4" | 23-4 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 47.1% | 31.7% | 2.6 | 78.3% | 23.6% | |
| 5 | David Giddens | G | Jr | 6'7" | 22-3 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 51.4% | 29.6% | 2.5 | 70.0% | 22.3% | |
| 23 | Manny Hill | G | Sr | 6'0" | 19-0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 47.4% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 69.2% | 23.6% | |
| 15 | Ivan Spirov | F | Jr | 6'8" | 17-0 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 54.4% | 33.3% | 0.5 | — | 18.7% | |
| 13 | Lucas Burton | F | Sr | 6'8" | 13-1 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 61.5% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 66.7% | 19.3% | |
| 50 | Kevo St. Hilaire | F | Fr | 6'10" | 15-0 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 58.3% | — | 0.0 | 40.0% | 14.4% | |
| 11 | Waqo Tessema | G | Jr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Cleveland St
Against the spread
Season
12-18
Home
4-8
Road
6-10
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −3.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 9 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
19-11
Home
7-5
Road
10-6
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +5.5
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | Wright St | A | L 61–90 | +14.5 | L−14.5 | 161.5 | U151 | 88.1 | 130.0 | 69.2 |
| Mar 2 | IU Indy | H | W 101–93 | −1.0 | W+7.0 | 169.5 | O194 | 121.7 | 112.1 | 83.0 |
| Feb 28 | Robert Morris | A | L 64–83 | +12.5 | L−6.5 | 157.5 | U147 | 100.1 | 129.8 | 63.9 |
| Feb 25 | N Kentucky | H | L 70–81 | +8.0 | L−3.0 | 165.5 | U151 | 97.0 | 112.2 | 72.2 |
| Feb 22 | Purdue FW | H | L 86–92 | +3.0 | L−3.0 | 163.0 | O178 | 112.8 | 120.7 | 76.2 |
| Feb 18 | Youngstown St | A | L 82–106 | +11.0 | L−13.0 | 156.5 | O188 | 116.8 | 151.0 | 70.2 |
| Feb 15 | Wright St | H | L 90–102 | +7.5 | L−4.5 | 158.5 | O192 | 121.2 | 137.4 | 74.2 |
| Feb 12 | Robert Morris | H | L 68–85 | +4.0 | L−13.0 | 154.0 | U153 | 108.3 | 135.3 | 62.8 |
| Feb 7 | IU Indy | A | L 74–82 | +2.5 | L−5.5 | 168.5 | U156 | 98.7 | 109.3 | 75.0 |
| Feb 4 | Oakland | H | W 91–78 | +8.0 | W+21.0 | 169.5 | U169 | 127.7 | 109.5 | 71.3 |
Alabama A&M
Against the spread
Season
15-14-1
Home
8-6
Road
4-7-1
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +1.1
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-15-1
Home
5-8-1
Road
7-5
Last 10
5-4-1
avg vs total +6.3
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | Prairie View | N | L 55–74 | −2.0 | L−21.0 | 140.5 | U129 | 87.1 | 117.2 | 63.1 |
| Mar 12 | Texas Southern | N | W 85–74 OT | −1.5 | W+9.5 | 142.5 | O159 | 111.5 | 97.1 | 76.2 |
| Mar 5 | Southern | H | L 85–88 | +1.0 | L−2.0 | 145.0 | O173 | 117.0 | 121.1 | 72.7 |
| Mar 3 | Grambling | H | W 77–63 | −2.0 | W+12.0 | 140.0 | P140 | 120.8 | 98.8 | 63.8 |
| Feb 28 | Alabama St | H | L 88–89 | −1.0 | L−2.0 | 143.0 | O177 | 131.0 | 132.5 | 67.2 |
| Feb 21 | Bethune | A | L 76–85 | +7.0 | L−2.0 | 143.0 | O161 | 112.3 | 125.6 | 67.7 |
| Feb 19 | Florida A&M | A | W 63–61 | +2.0 | W+4.0 | 139.5 | U124 | 100.0 | 96.8 | 63.0 |
| Feb 16 | AR-Pine Bluff | H | W 82–70 | −3.5 | W+8.5 | 144.0 | O152 | 129.3 | 110.4 | 63.4 |
| Feb 14 | Miss Valley St | H | W 72–65 | −15.5 | L−8.5 | 139.5 | U137 | 112.7 | 101.8 | 63.9 |
| Feb 9 | Grambling | A | W 66–58 | +4.5 | W+12.5 | 135.5 | U124 | 99.1 | 87.1 | 66.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeCleveland StAlabama A&M
Efficiency
108.3
104.6
118.5
112.9
69.9
66.9
—
—
Shooting
54.2%
49.2%
52.0%
47.5%
37.5%
35.0%
76.2%
73.8%
37.9%
45.4%
Ball control & glass
17.8%
16.5%
15.1%
16.6%
27.0%
27.5%
36.6%
29.5%
9.5%
8.9%
14.4%
8.5%
Style
50.8%
34.0%
33.3%
39.1%
17.7%
14.9%
57.9%
48.0%
36.1%
29.7%
Roster
3.30
3.39
6'3.7"
6'5.6"
82.4%
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputCleveland St
Returning minutes: 82.4%Returning production: 86.3%
Lost
- Preist Ryan 20.9 mpg, 6.8 ppg · transferred to Canisius
- Holden Pierre-Louis 14.2 mpg, 3.0 ppg · transferred to Quinnipiac
Added
- Waqo Tessema no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 82% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Alabama A&M
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Alabama A&M's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.