CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBender Arena, Washington, DC
Harvard
Efficiency #133
2025-26: 17-12 · 10-5 conf
@
American
Efficiency #234
2025-26: 16-16 · 9-10 conf
Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
69.3
win 49%
Projected
69.7
win 51%
No line posted yet.
Model: AMER −0.4 · total 138.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: American 67.9, Harvard 65.6 → 65.2 possessions
−6.9
American offense vs Harvard defense
−2.9
Harvard offense vs American defense
+0.5
Projected total
138.9
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
American offense vs Harvard defense
−2.9
Harvard offense vs American defense
−0.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
American by 0.4
0.4
Harvard side ◂▸ American side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +0.3 against +0.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help American.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, American is the faster team (66.7, #258 of 365) and Harvard the slower (63.9, #357). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
65.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
138.9
model
Projected team totals
69.3 / 69.7
Harvard / American
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.6#354
Harvard
67.9#217
American

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
American averages 66.7 possessions per 40, Harvard 63.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageHarvard
Where Harvard scores: shooting
Harvard shoots an effective 53.2% (#94); American allows 54.4% (#313). Expect about 54.0%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.9 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversHarvard
Harvard turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.7% is worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions against Harvard's offense.
AdvantageAmerican
Where American struggles: the offensive glass
American rebounds 26.9% of its own misses (#299); Harvard lets opponents grab 28.2% of their own misses (#69). Expect about 26.9%, 3.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.
GlassHarvard
Harvard gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.4% is worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions against Harvard's offense.
Harvard has the ball
OffenseAmerican allowsvs D1 avg
53.2% #94
54.4% #313
+3.9 pt/100
17.4% #233
19.2% #40
-2.4 pt/100
26.8% #302
29.4% #127
-1.8 pt/100
25.7% #359
42.1% #324
-0.0 pt/100
80.8% #1
—
+0.7 pt/100
Harvard net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.4 pts/100
American has the ball
OffenseHarvard allowsvs D1 avg
51.5% #169
50.4% #122
-0.4 pt/100
15.6% #114
17.1% #141
+0.5 pt/100
26.9% #299
28.2% #69
-2.2 pt/100
28.7% #335
26.6% #17
-1.0 pt/100
75.8% #57
—
+0.3 pt/100
American net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Harvardoffense vsAmericandefense
Share of shots by zone
Harvard shoots
American allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.7%#8062.5%#31158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.5%#3548.0%#33939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.8%#11837.6%#14538.0%
Three34.7%#13535.5%#28333.7%
Americanoffense vsHarvarddefense
Share of shots by zone
American shoots
Harvard allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.0%#16156.4%#9558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.5%#9244.9%#29539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.6%#12741.3%#28438.0%
Three33.0%#23532.6%#9433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Harvard
−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#212 of 365
Off reb %
26.8%
#302
Def reb %
71.8%
#69
Turnover %
17.4%
#233
Forced TO %
17.1%
#141
FT rate
25.7%
#359
FT allowed
26.6%
#17
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.2
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−0.4
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed+2.2
American
−1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#259 of 365
Off reb %
26.9%
#299
Def reb %
70.6%
#127
Turnover %
15.6%
#114
Forced TO %
19.2%
#40
FT rate
28.7%
#335
FT allowed
42.1%
#324
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers+1.7
Foul shots drawn−1.6
Foul shots allowed−1.8

Harvard has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.7 (#212 of 365) to American’s −1.6 (#259).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Harvard2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Harvard's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
8Tey BarbourGSo6'4"29-2833.613.65.21.41.360.8%39.6%6.881.6%22.1%
13Chandler PiggeGSr6'5"29-2933.612.95.13.32.050.6%31.5%3.175.3%26.3%
4Robert HintonGSo6'5"29-2933.416.84.82.11.852.4%29.4%2.982.9%31.2%
15Thomas Batties IIIFJr6'7"29-2933.012.35.42.31.657.7%45.3%4.487.2%22.4%
5Ben EisendrathGSo6'2"28-2629.15.32.23.32.245.2%14.3%1.589.7%15.9%
7Austin HuntGSo6'4"14-322.86.93.61.01.158.7%37.8%2.681.8%18.6%
10Frankie ManninoGFr6'5"28-08.91.81.30.50.357.4%10.0%0.466.7%13.1%
34Ryan SullivanFFr6'9"21-07.51.32.00.20.260.0%0.0%0.030.0%11.3%
3Xavier NesbittGJr5'11"27-05.20.60.60.30.324.1%11.1%0.775.0%17.0%
0Kenan ParrishFFr7'0"18-06.22.21.20.10.445.8%33.3%0.566.7%26.6%
35Luca Ace-NasteskiFJr6'10"20-05.51.10.90.30.143.8%0.0%0.181.8%13.6%
12Dutch DowdellGSo6'6"16-03.90.90.40.10.144.1%31.3%1.0—18.3%
18Joseph QuarteyGFr6'2"7-02.90.00.10.10.10.0%0.0%0.4—18.3%
14Greg CooperGSr6'0"4-12.30.80.30.00.075.0%50.0%0.5—13.6%
24Payton PittsGJr6'2"3-01.70.00.30.00.00.0%—0.0—12.5%
41Avner DrorFFr6'9"2-02.00.00.50.00.00.0%—0.0—15.5%
11Alex TouomouFFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
HarvardAmerican
Efficiency
107.6
106.9
105.6
110.1
65.6
67.9
—
—
Shooting
53.2%
51.5%
54.0%
53.3%
34.7%
33.0%
80.8%
75.8%
25.7%
28.7%
Ball control & glass
17.4%
15.6%
17.1%
19.2%
26.8%
26.9%
28.2%
29.4%
10.2%
8.9%
7.4%
10.0%
Style
40.2%
46.5%
43.0%
42.6%
10.7%
13.8%
56.1%
49.5%
19.9%
33.2%
Roster
2.45
2.23
6'4.9"
6'5.2"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Harvard
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Harvard's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

American
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted American's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.