CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFedExForum, Memphis, TN

Louisville

Efficiency #14

2025-26: 24-11 · 12-8 conf

Memphis

Efficiency #152

2025-26: 13-19 · 8-11 conf

Sun, Nov 15 · TBD

80.3

win 72%

Projected

73.6

win 28%

No line posted yet.

Model: LOU −6.7 · total 154.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Memphis 70.1, Louisville 69.9 → 71.6 possessions

+7.1

Memphis offense vs Louisville defense

−6.1

Louisville offense vs Memphis defense

+4.7

Projected total

154.0

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Memphis offense vs Louisville defense

−6.1

Louisville offense vs Memphis defense

−4.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Louisville by 6.7

6.7

Louisville side ◂▸ Memphis side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 153.9 against a projected 154.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Memphis.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Memphis is the faster team (71.4, #37 of 365) and Louisville the slower (71.0, #54). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

154.0

model

Projected team totals

80.3 / 73.6

Louisville / Memphis

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.9#60

Louisville

70.1#44

Memphis

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

Memphis averages 71.4 possessions per 40, Louisville 71.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageMemphis

Where Memphis struggles: shooting

Memphis shoots an effective 48.7% (#298); Louisville allows 48.7% (#54). Expect about 48.5%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.0 points per 100 possessions.

ClashLouisville

Style match: 3-point volume

Louisville takes 52.9% of its shots from three; Memphis lets opponents take 43.2% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 52.6% — both habits push the same way.

DefenseMemphis

Memphis's shot-blocking

Memphis ranks #32 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.0% of Louisville's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageLouisville

Where Louisville scores: the offensive glass

Louisville rebounds 32.8% of its own misses (#93); Memphis lets opponents grab 35.6% of their own misses (#350). Expect about 34.6%, 4.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions.

ClashLouisville

Strength vs strength: eFG%

Louisville (#14 in eFG%) against Memphis (#55 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 53.0%. Historically Louisville's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.58 vs 0.51).

Louisville has the ball

OffenseMemphis allowsvs D1 avg

56.5% #14

48.7% #55

+2.5 pt/100

16.8% #186

18.5% #70

-1.4 pt/100

32.8% #93

35.6% #350

+2.6 pt/100

33.1% #236

42.4% #329

+0.4 pt/100

76.1% #51

—

+0.3 pt/100

Louisville net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.4 pts/100

Memphis has the ball

OffenseLouisville allowsvs D1 avg

48.7% #298

48.7% #54

-4.0 pt/100

18.9% #317

16.7% #172

-1.4 pt/100

35.3% #41

27.5% #50

+1.2 pt/100

34.7% #190

33.0% #130

-0.2 pt/100

72.1% #205

—

-0.0 pt/100

Memphis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Louisvilleoffense vsMemphisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Louisville shoots

36.2

5.3

6.1

52.5

Memphis allows

35.7

5.6

16.2

42.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.8%#41	59.0%#190	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.4%#36	44.8%#292	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.8%#265	34.3%#55	38.0%
Three	36.0%#58	30.5%#22	33.7%

Memphisoffense vsLouisvilledefense

Share of shots by zone

Memphis shoots

37.6

6.9

22.0

33.5

Louisville allows

32.4

9.0

19.1

39.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.8%#205	58.8%#181	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.5%#207	39.2%#162	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.5%#169	32.9%#28	38.0%
Three	31.6%#303	32.3%#76	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Louisville

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#104 of 365

Off reb %

32.8%

#93

Def reb %

72.5%

#50

Turnover %

16.8%

#186

Forced TO %

16.7%

#172

FT rate

33.1%

#236

FT allowed

33.0%

#130

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.8

Defensive rebounding+1.0

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers0.0

Foul shots drawn−0.5

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Memphis

−2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#275 of 365

Off reb %

35.3%

#41

Def reb %

64.4%

#350

Turnover %

18.9%

#317

Forced TO %

18.5%

#70

FT rate

34.7%

#190

FT allowed

42.4%

#329

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security−1.4

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed−1.8

Louisville has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#104 of 365) to Memphis’s −2.2 (#275).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Louisville2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
40	Flory Bidungaat Kansas	F	Jr	6'9"	35-34	31.6	13.3	9.0	1.5	1.5	64.0%	0.0%	0.1	65.4%	21.9%
11	De'Shayne Montgomeryat Dayton	G	Sr	6'4"	36-36	30.6	13.4	4.0	2.1	1.9	56.2%	33.5%	4.3	78.9%	25.7%
53	LJ Wellsat N Kentucky	F	Sr	6'8"	33-33	30.3	15.0	7.3	2.1	1.9	57.9%	28.3%	1.6	67.5%	26.1%
5	Seth Trimbleat North Carolina	G	Sr	6'3"	24-24	32.5	14.0	3.8	3.0	1.4	50.8%	28.6%	2.6	66.7%	25.4%
14	Adrian Wooley	G	Jr	6'4"	35-16	22.5	8.7	3.9	1.8	1.1	53.9%	35.0%	3.3	77.8%	21.8%
7	Alvaro Folgueirasat Iowa	F	Sr	6'10"	37-1	20.6	8.4	3.6	2.2	1.2	58.6%	33.3%	2.9	76.7%	24.8%
3	Jackson Shelstadat Oregon	G	Sr	6'1"	12-12	34.9	15.6	2.9	4.9	1.8	48.8%	31.4%	8.8	84.6%	28.0%
1	Karter Knoxat Arkansas	G	Jr	6'6"	22-18	22.2	8.1	4.5	1.2	1.0	55.4%	37.7%	3.1	72.7%	20.1%
45	Gabe Dynesat USC	C	Sr	7'5"	30-6	11.9	2.9	2.3	0.4	0.7	78.8%	—	0.0	35.3%	12.8%
33	Will Hanke	G	So	6'4"	9-0	1.1	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.0	33.3%	—	0.0	—	16.1%
6	Boyuan Zhang	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Isaac Ellis	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Obinna Ekezie Jr.	C	Fr	7'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Flory Bidunga (from Kansas), Gabe Dynes (from USC), Alvaro Folgueiras (from Iowa), De'Shayne Montgomery (from Dayton), Jackson Shelstad (from Oregon), Seth Trimble (from North Carolina), LJ Wells (from N Kentucky), Karter Knox (from Arkansas)

Memphis2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Dug McDaniel	G	Sr	5'11"	32-32	34.4	13.9	3.7	4.6	2.6	47.2%	32.9%	4.6	84.9%	26.6%
5	Curtis Givens III	G	So	6'3"	25-15	25.6	9.4	2.1	2.3	1.6	52.4%	36.5%	3.8	66.1%	22.4%
2	Zach Davis	G	Sr	6'7"	29-11	21.0	7.2	4.2	1.1	1.8	47.0%	27.8%	2.5	75.5%	23.9%
23	Sincere Parker	G	Sr	6'3"	31-4	19.5	11.4	3.7	1.1	0.9	46.2%	32.9%	2.7	79.8%	34.4%
15	Julius Thedford	G	So	6'4"	27-17	20.4	8.4	5.0	0.7	0.9	53.8%	34.1%	1.6	68.2%	22.5%
11	Aaron Bradshaw	F	Jr	7'1"	29-22	18.9	8.6	4.2	0.6	1.4	56.3%	33.3%	0.9	77.2%	25.3%
0	Quante Berry	G	Jr	6'4"	30-11	18.0	6.1	2.5	1.2	1.0	46.5%	29.8%	2.8	69.8%	21.7%
3	Ashton Hardaway	F	Jr	6'8"	25-9	19.6	5.6	2.5	1.4	1.2	48.8%	34.3%	2.7	73.7%	19.4%
31	Thierno Sylla	C	Sr	6'11"	23-14	13.9	3.8	2.5	0.3	0.7	50.8%	0.0%	0.2	60.0%	16.9%
10	Simon Majok	C	Fr	7'1"	25-10	12.4	2.9	2.4	0.2	0.6	48.9%	28.6%	0.3	71.8%	14.4%
14	Hasan Abdul Hakim	G	Sr	6'8"	13-10	22.4	6.2	4.1	1.8	2.2	42.0%	15.8%	1.5	60.7%	22.8%
19	Tariq Ingraham	F	Sr	6'9"	25-1	9.2	3.2	1.7	0.2	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	20.5%
12	William Whorton	F	So	6'8"	19-4	8.9	1.8	1.5	0.2	0.5	42.9%	0.0%	0.1	55.6%	15.3%
8	Mason Matthews	F	Sr	6'8"	7-0	3.3	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	21.4%	16.7%	0.9	—	16.7%
4	Arop Arop	F	Jr	6'11"	9-0	2.4	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	22.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Louisville2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
40	Flory Bidungaat Kansas	F	Jr	6'9"	35-34	31.6	13.3	9.0	1.5	1.5	64.0%	0.0%	0.1	65.4%	21.9%
11	De'Shayne Montgomeryat Dayton	G	Sr	6'4"	36-36	30.6	13.4	4.0	2.1	1.9	56.2%	33.5%	4.3	78.9%	25.7%
53	LJ Wellsat N Kentucky	F	Sr	6'8"	33-33	30.3	15.0	7.3	2.1	1.9	57.9%	28.3%	1.6	67.5%	26.1%
5	Seth Trimbleat North Carolina	G	Sr	6'3"	24-24	32.5	14.0	3.8	3.0	1.4	50.8%	28.6%	2.6	66.7%	25.4%
14	Adrian Wooley	G	Jr	6'4"	35-16	22.5	8.7	3.9	1.8	1.1	53.9%	35.0%	3.3	77.8%	21.8%
7	Alvaro Folgueirasat Iowa	F	Sr	6'10"	37-1	20.6	8.4	3.6	2.2	1.2	58.6%	33.3%	2.9	76.7%	24.8%
3	Jackson Shelstadat Oregon	G	Sr	6'1"	12-12	34.9	15.6	2.9	4.9	1.8	48.8%	31.4%	8.8	84.6%	28.0%
1	Karter Knoxat Arkansas	G	Jr	6'6"	22-18	22.2	8.1	4.5	1.2	1.0	55.4%	37.7%	3.1	72.7%	20.1%
45	Gabe Dynesat USC	C	Sr	7'5"	30-6	11.9	2.9	2.3	0.4	0.7	78.8%	—	0.0	35.3%	12.8%
33	Will Hanke	G	So	6'4"	9-0	1.1	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.0	33.3%	—	0.0	—	16.1%
6	Boyuan Zhang	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Isaac Ellis	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Obinna Ekezie Jr.	C	Fr	7'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Louisville

Against the spread

Season

15-18-2

Home

9-7-1

Road

3-8

Last 10

1-7-2

avg cover −4.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 0 of 8 as a favorite, 2 pushes

Over / under

Season

14-21

Home

6-11

Road

6-5

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −4.5

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 21	#3Michigan StAdjEM #11	N	L 69–77	+5.0	L−3.0	151.0	U146	103.1	115.0	66.9
Mar 19	#11South FloridaAdjEM #36	N	W 83–79	−4.0	P0.0	160.0	O162	110.3	105.0	75.2
Mar 12	MiamiAdjEM #30	N	L 73–78	−1.5	L−6.5	153.5	U151	106.7	114.0	68.4
Mar 11	SMUAdjEM #44	N	W 62–58	−6.5	L−2.5	163.5	U120	100.9	94.4	61.5
Mar 7	#22MiamiAdjEM #30	A	W 92–89	+1.5	W+4.5	155.5	O181	142.7	138.1	64.5
Mar 3	SyracuseAdjEM #85	H	W 77–62	−15.0	P0.0	160.0	U139	113.8	91.6	67.7
Feb 28	ClemsonAdjEM #35	A	L 75–80	−2.0	L−7.0	146.5	O155	107.3	114.4	69.9
Feb 23	#18North CarolinaAdjEM #29	A	L 74–77	−3.5	L−6.5	163.0	U151	111.1	115.6	66.6
Feb 21	Georgia TechAdjEM #201	H	W 87–70	−23.5	L−6.5	166.5	U157	118.2	95.1	73.6
Feb 17	SMUAdjEM #44	A	L 85–95	−4.0	L−14.0	168.0	O180	111.2	124.3	76.4

Memphis

Against the spread

Season

14-18

Home

10-6

Road

2-11

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −7.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

16-16

Home

8-8

Road

8-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +7.5

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	TulaneAdjEM #239	N	L 69–81	−4.5	L−16.5	150.5	U150	97.8	114.8	70.5
Mar 8	TulaneAdjEM #239	A	W 96–95 OT	−2.5	L−1.5	154.0	O191	124.2	122.9	77.3
Mar 5	South FloridaAdjEM #36	H	L 89–96	+7.5	W+0.5	161.5	O185	114.8	123.8	77.5
Mar 1	East CarolinaAdjEM #272	A	L 68–84	−4.0	L−20.0	153.5	U152	92.5	114.3	73.5
Feb 26	Wichita StAdjEM #60	H	L 82–88	−1.0	L−7.0	149.5	O170	114.1	122.4	71.9
Feb 22	UABAdjEM #111	H	L 67–78	−6.0	L−17.0	152.0	U145	93.4	108.7	71.8
Feb 19	South FloridaAdjEM #36	A	L 66–87	+9.5	L−11.5	163.5	U153	94.2	124.2	70.1
Feb 14	Utah StateAdjEM #24	A	L 75–99	+14.0	L−10.0	154.5	O174	104.7	138.2	71.6
Feb 12	North TexasAdjEM #151	A	L 69–76	−1.5	L−8.5	138.0	O145	100.3	110.5	68.8
Feb 8	CharlotteAdjEM #193	H	W 77–54	−9.5	W+13.5	144.5	U131	110.9	77.8	69.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

LouisvilleMemphis

Efficiency

117.8

106.9

101.5

105.8

69.9

70.1

—

Shooting

56.5%

48.7%

59.4%

49.4%

36.0%

31.6%

76.1%

72.1%

33.1%

34.7%

Ball control & glass

16.8%

18.9%

16.7%

18.5%

32.8%

35.3%

27.5%

35.6%

9.5%

11.3%

12.5%

10.4%

Style

52.9%

33.7%

39.1%

44.9%

8.6%

17.0%

59.6%

49.8%

31.7%

40.2%

Roster

3.65

3.19

6'6.6"

6'5.6"

11.4%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Louisville

Returning minutes: 11.4%Returning production: 10.0%

Lost

Ryan Conwell 30.0 mpg, 18.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Isaac McKneely 29.0 mpg, 10.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
J'Vonne Hadley 27.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Sananda Fru 22.0 mpg, 9.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Mikel Brown Jr. 17.5 mpg, 10.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Khani Rooths 14.1 mpg, 4.7 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma

Added

Flory Bidunga from Kansas · 31.6 mpg, 13.3 ppg last season
De'Shayne Montgomery from Dayton · 29.8 mpg, 13.0 ppg last season
LJ Wells from N Kentucky · 29.4 mpg, 14.5 ppg last season
Seth Trimble from North Carolina · 23.6 mpg, 10.2 ppg last season
Alvaro Folgueiras from Iowa · 20.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg last season
Karter Knox from Arkansas · 13.2 mpg, 4.8 ppg last season

Returns 11% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Memphis

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 13	2025-26	Memphis 73 – 99 Louisville

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.