CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 147.1 against a projected 147.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help C Connecticut.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 68.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Quinnipiac is the faster team (69.7, #101 of 365) and C Connecticut the slower (65.2, #325). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 54.9%#301 | 54.5%#50 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.0%#349 | 47.7%#338 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 31.1%#346 | 42.0%#302 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.0%#171 | 33.4%#146 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.0%#163 | 52.6%#20 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 54.1%#2 | 35.1%#60 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.8%#231 | 35.1%#81 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.8%#69 | 34.9%#242 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersQuinnipiac has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#66 of 365) to C Connecticut’s −1.2 (#243).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Keith McKnight | F | So | 6'7" | 32-4 | 24.8 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 55.4% | 26.7% | 0.5 | 62.5% | 24.9% | |
| 12 | Holden Pierre-Louisat Cleveland St | F | Fr | 6'8" | 30-21 | 15.6 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 56.4% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 38.7% | 16.0% | |
| 9 | Nate Guerengomba | G | Jr | 6'4" | 29-4 | 14.1 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 37.2% | 17.6% | 0.6 | 60.0% | 14.3% | |
| 4 | Tai Turnage | G | So | 6'0" | 30-0 | 12.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 38.2% | 33.3% | 1.8 | 81.1% | 20.1% | |
| 3 | Nas Hartat La Salle | F | So | 6'10" | 20-3 | 10.6 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 37.2% | — | 0.0 | 61.9% | 16.1% | |
| 13 | Braylan Ritvo | F | So | 6'8" | 8-0 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 40.0% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 0.0% | 16.9% | |
| 34 | Akintola Akinniyi | F | Sr | 6'7" | 5-0 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 13.9% | |
| 10 | Christopher Skenderi | F | So | 6'7" | 4-0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 92.9% | 75.0% | 1.0 | — | 36.8% | |
| 1 | Jayden Reid | F | So | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Ali Diouf | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Lucas Sekasi | G | Jr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Malik Fields | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Mike Parrotta | G | Sr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 17 | Nedas Cholevinskas | F | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Tayeshawn Cunningham-Pemberton | G | Sr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Darin Smith Jr. | F | So | 6'7" | 30-30 | 32.7 | 20.7 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 51.9% | 37.6% | 5.0 | 89.8% | 35.9% | |
| 1 | Jay Rodgers | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-28 | 29.2 | 11.0 | 2.2 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 48.9% | 36.2% | 3.1 | 81.7% | 27.0% | |
| 34 | Max Frazier | F | Jr | 6'9" | 30-30 | 28.2 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 65.8% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.0% | 22.7% | |
| 24 | James Jones | G | So | 6'6" | 26-23 | 28.8 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 42.5% | 28.6% | 1.1 | 59.1% | 11.8% | |
| 6 | Melo Sanchez | G | Sr | 6'4" | 29-26 | 24.8 | 9.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 59.7% | 42.8% | 4.8 | 80.0% | 21.5% | |
| 0 | Elijah Parker | G | Fr | 6'3" | 29-2 | 14.6 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 45.5% | 26.9% | 0.9 | 42.1% | 14.1% | |
| 22 | Daniel James | F | So | 6'8" | 28-5 | 12.6 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 56.3% | 31.8% | 0.8 | 73.9% | 16.2% | |
| 3 | Roddy Jones | G | Fr | 6'1" | 23-0 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 56.3% | 38.8% | 3.5 | 100.0% | 22.7% | |
| 13 | Ashton Reynolds | G | Fr | 6'4" | 23-1 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 50.8% | 31.6% | 0.8 | 81.5% | 21.6% | |
| 2 | Nico Ashley | F | Sr | 6'7" | 18-1 | 9.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 58.0% | 25.0% | 0.7 | 69.2% | 19.6% | |
| 12 | Gabe Spinelli | G | Sr | 6'3" | 11-0 | 14.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 53.7% | 44.4% | 0.8 | 100.0% | 19.3% | |
| 10 | Ja'Kobe Williams | G | Sr | 6'3" | 7-4 | 18.1 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 28.6% | 20.0% | 1.4 | 70.0% | 17.9% | |
| 11 | Jayden Mott | F | So | 6'8" | 14-0 | 8.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 47.9% | 33.3% | 0.2 | 40.0% | 18.7% | |
| 15 | Adam Fox | G | Fr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | — | 14.0% | |
| 20 | Corsley Edwards Jr. | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Rashawn Tibby | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Keith McKnight | F | So | 6'7" | 32-4 | 24.8 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 55.4% | 26.7% | 0.5 | 62.5% | 24.9% | |
| 12 | Holden Pierre-Louisat Cleveland St | F | Fr | 6'8" | 30-21 | 15.6 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 56.4% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 38.7% | 16.0% | |
| 9 | Nate Guerengomba | G | Jr | 6'4" | 29-4 | 14.1 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 37.2% | 17.6% | 0.6 | 60.0% | 14.3% | |
| 4 | Tai Turnage | G | So | 6'0" | 30-0 | 12.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 38.2% | 33.3% | 1.8 | 81.1% | 20.1% | |
| 3 | Nas Hartat La Salle | F | So | 6'10" | 20-3 | 10.6 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 37.2% | — | 0.0 | 61.9% | 16.1% | |
| 13 | Braylan Ritvo | F | So | 6'8" | 8-0 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 40.0% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 0.0% | 16.9% | |
| 34 | Akintola Akinniyi | F | Sr | 6'7" | 5-0 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 13.9% | |
| 10 | Christopher Skenderi | F | So | 6'7" | 4-0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 92.9% | 75.0% | 1.0 | — | 36.8% | |
| 1 | Jayden Reid | F | So | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Ali Diouf | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Lucas Sekasi | G | Jr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Malik Fields | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Mike Parrotta | G | Sr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 17 | Nedas Cholevinskas | F | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Tayeshawn Cunningham-Pemberton | G | Sr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Marist | N | L 75–77 | −2.0 | L−4.0 | 134.5 | O152 | 102.6 | 105.4 | 73.1 |
| Mar 1 | Canisius | A | W 67–63 | −8.0 | L−4.0 | 138.5 | U130 | 100.9 | 94.8 | 66.4 |
| Feb 27 | Niagara | A | L 76–78 OT | −8.5 | L−10.5 | 136.0 | O154 | 110.9 | 113.8 | 68.6 |
| Feb 22 | Fairfield | H | L 79–85 | −6.5 | L−12.5 | 150.5 | O164 | 115.5 | 124.3 | 68.4 |
| Feb 15 | Merrimack | H | L 49–56 | −3.5 | L−10.5 | 142.0 | U105 | 75.1 | 85.8 | 65.3 |
| Feb 13 | Siena | A | W 74–62 | +4.0 | W+16.0 | 144.0 | U136 | 110.8 | 92.8 | 66.8 |
| Feb 7 | Niagara | H | W 56–55 | −13.5 | L−12.5 | 137.5 | U111 | 94.6 | 92.9 | 59.2 |
| Feb 5 | Canisius | H | W 75–60 | −15.0 | P0.0 | 142.0 | U135 | 102.2 | 81.8 | 73.3 |
| Feb 1 | Fairfield | A | W 72–65 | −2.0 | W+5.0 | 155.0 | U137 | 104.8 | 94.6 | 68.7 |
| Jan 30 | Sacred Heart | H | L 91–98 | −9.0 | L−16.0 | 156.5 | O189 | 120.4 | 129.7 | 75.6 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | Wagner | H | L 60–70 | −3.5 | L−13.5 | 138.5 | U130 | 97.7 | 114.0 | 61.4 |
| Feb 28 | Saint Francis Red Wolves | H | W 69–64 | −8.0 | L−3.0 | 153.0 | U133 | 106.3 | 98.6 | 64.9 |
| Feb 26 | Mercyhurst | H | W 80–78 | −4.0 | L−2.0 | 141.0 | O158 | 117.7 | 114.7 | 68.0 |
| Feb 21 | Chicago St | A | L 51–70 | −3.0 | L−22.0 | 138.5 | U121 | 82.4 | 113.1 | 61.9 |
| Feb 19 | Le Moyne | H | W 78–77 | −3.5 | L−2.5 | 146.5 | O155 | 110.2 | 108.8 | 70.8 |
| Feb 14 | FDU | A | W 63–57 | −1.0 | W+5.0 | 134.0 | U120 | 111.5 | 100.9 | 56.5 |
| Feb 12 | New Haven | A | W 81–76 | −3.0 | W+2.0 | 129.0 | O157 | 117.5 | 110.2 | 69.0 |
| Feb 7 | Wagner | H | W 84–67 | −5.0 | W+12.0 | 136.5 | O151 | 127.9 | 102.0 | 65.7 |
| Feb 5 | Chicago St | H | W 78–67 | −9.0 | W+2.0 | 137.0 | O145 | 125.1 | 107.5 | 62.3 |
| Jan 31 | Long Island | H | L 59–80 | +2.5 | L−18.5 | 143.0 | U139 | 89.1 | 120.8 | 66.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input- Grant Randall 31.7 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Amarri Monroe 31.3 mpg, 14.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Asim Jones 28.8 mpg, 12.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jaden Zimmerman 26.3 mpg, 12.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Spence Wewe 16.5 mpg, 2.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Samson Reilly 7.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Sacred Heart
- Holden Pierre-Louis from Cleveland St · 14.2 mpg, 3.0 ppg last season
- Nas Hart from La Salle · 6.6 mpg, 1.4 ppg last season
- Ali Diouf no D1 minutes last season
- Jayden Reid no D1 minutes last season
- Nedas Cholevinskas no D1 minutes last season
- Mike Parrotta no D1 minutes last season
Returns 26% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Thu, Nov 6 | 2025-26 | C Connecticut 49 – 71 Quinnipiac |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.