Pepperdine Waves vs Oregon Ducks basketball preview & prediction

Sun, Nov 15 · 5:00 PM ET · Matthew Knight Arena, Eugene, OR

Non-conferenceB1G+Matthew Knight Arena, Eugene, OR

Pepperdine

2-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #270

Oregon

2-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #92

Sun, Nov 15 · 5:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Pepperdine is the faster team (75.5, #57 of 365) and Oregon the slower (71.2, #164). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.3

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

71.7#107

Pepperdine

70.1#215

Oregon

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Oregon has the ball+14.0

Pepperdine has the ball+1.8

Oregon has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 65.9% #7 · PEPP allows 62.5% #340+15.5

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 27.6% #281 · PEPP allows 15.6% #7 · FT 67.6% #220−1.7

✓Wins second chancesOR% 33.3% #135 · PEPP allows 31.3% #180+0.5

✗Coughs it upTO% 15.5% #94 · PEPP forces 21.2% #81 · ~13 turnovers−0.3

Pepperdine has the ball

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 17.2% #155 · ORE forces 16.2% #234 · ~12 turnovers+1.7

✓Wins second chancesOR% 42.1% #30 · ORE allows 21.6% #22+1.1

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 50.0% #176 · ORE allows 49.1% #156−0.8

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 42.4% #111 · ORE allows 31.9% #128 · FT 67.9% #218−0.2

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Pepperdineoffense vsOregondefense

Share of shots by zone

Pepperdine shoots

45.5

6.1

3.0

45.5

Oregon allows

28.6

13.3

14.3

43.9

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	50.0%#261	64.3%#252	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	100.0%#1	23.1%#73	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	100.0%#1	42.9%#240	34.7%
Three	26.7%#261	35.3%#235	32.5%

Oregonoffense vsPepperdinedefense

Share of shots by zone

Oregon shoots

45.1

16.7

8.8

29.4

Pepperdine allows

42.2

7.8

4.7

45.3

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	82.6%#4	55.6%#137	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	29.4%#234	60.0%#305	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	77.8%#11	33.3%#155	34.7%
Three	38.9%#72	48.3%#349	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Pepperdine

+13.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#24 of 365

Off reb %

42.1%

#30

Def reb %

68.8%

#180

Turnover %

17.2%

#155

Forced TO %

21.2%

#81

FT rate

42.4%

#111

FT allowed

15.6%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+3.5

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers+2.2

Foul shots drawn+1.3

Foul shots allowed+5.8

Oregon

+3.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#124 of 365

Off reb %

33.3%

#135

Def reb %

78.4%

#22

Turnover %

15.5%

#94

Forced TO %

16.2%

#234

FT rate

27.6%

#281

FT allowed

31.9%

#128

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding+3.3

Ball security+2.0

Forcing turnovers−1.3

Foul shots drawn−2.5

Foul shots allowed+1.6

Pepperdine has more extra scoring chances per game: +13.7 (#24 of 365) to Oregon’s +3.6 (#124).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Pepperdine2026-27 numbers

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage	Status
99	G	Sr	6'1"	3-1	23.7	12.0	3.7	3.0	1.0	63.0%	42.1%	6.3	100.0%	22.5%	Active
3	F	Jr	6'8"	3-3	23.7	18.0	3.3	2.3	1.0	75.9%	33.3%	2.0	76.9%	27.9%	Active
5	G	Jr	6'4"	3-3	22.3	10.3	4.7	1.7	1.7	42.6%	29.2%	8.0	100.0%	31.0%	Active
14	F	Fr	6'6"	3-3	22.0	7.3	3.0	0.7	0.0	70.0%	46.7%	5.0	50.0%	12.5%	Active
23	F	Fr	6'8"	3-0	20.7	15.0	8.7	2.7	2.3	48.4%	25.0%	4.0	87.5%	38.9%	Active
2	G	Sr	6'3"	3-2	19.0	6.3	3.7	2.7	2.3	53.8%	25.0%	2.7	62.5%	21.7%	Active
21	F	Sr	6'10"	3-3	18.7	12.7	6.0	0.7	1.3	66.7%	—	0.0	62.1%	30.3%	Active
25	G	So	6'1"	3-0	15.7	2.7	5.3	2.0	1.3	44.4%	28.6%	2.3	—	14.2%	Active
9	F	Sr	6'9"	3-0	13.7	6.3	3.7	0.7	0.0	77.8%	—	0.0	45.5%	17.9%	Active
1	G	Sr	6'4"	2-0	12.5	8.0	3.0	3.0	1.0	85.7%	50.0%	2.0	80.0%	23.2%	Active
0	G	Fr	6'4"	2-0	10.5	6.0	1.5	2.0	0.5	70.0%	33.3%	1.5	100.0%	20.3%	Active
22	F	Sr	6'8"	3-0	4.3	2.0	1.7	1.0	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	27.2%	Active
11	G	So	6'5"	2-0	2.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	50.0%	30.1%	Active

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Pepperdine

Against the spread

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-1

avg cover −4.5

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg vs total +6.0

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 7	Bethesda Flames	H	W 116–43	—	—	—	—	148.3	55.0	78.2
Nov 5	La Sierra Golden Eagles	H	W 106–66	—	—	—	—	136.2	84.8	77.8
Nov 2	CornellAdjEM #179	A	L 85–86	−3.5	L−4.5	165.0	O171	112.5	113.9	75.5
Mar 5	PortlandAdjEM #192	N	L 68–77	+3.5	L−5.5	154.0	U145	98.2	111.2	69.3
Feb 28	Washington StAdjEM #204	H	W 88–79	+8.0	W+17.0	158.0	O167	116.6	104.6	75.5
Feb 25	Seattle UAdjEM #112	H	L 80–87	+7.5	W+0.5	145.5	O167	114.1	124.1	70.1
Feb 21	Oregon StAdjEM #91	A	L 73–83	+9.0	L−1.0	148.5	O156	101.4	115.3	72.0
Feb 18	PortlandAdjEM #192	A	W 95–87	+7.0	W+15.0	151.0	O182	136.2	124.8	69.7
Feb 14	LMUAdjEM #193	H	W 90–89	+6.0	W+7.0	148.5	O179	126.4	125.0	71.2
Feb 11	Saint Mary'sAdjEM #27	A	L 60–88	+24.5	L−3.5	144.0	O148	83.8	122.9	71.6

Oregon

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

1-1

Road

0-0

Last 10

1-1

avg cover +4.8

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

2-0

Home

2-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

2-0

avg vs total +11.8

Over 2 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 6	E WashingtonAdjEM #212	H	W 98–71	−16.0	W+11.0	150.0	O169	132.4	95.9	74.0
Nov 2	MontanaAdjEM #211	H	W 87–69	−19.5	L−1.5	151.5	O156	127.3	101.0	68.3
Mar 10	MarylandAdjEM #154	N	L 60–70	−4.0	L−14.0	139.0	U130	95.6	111.5	62.8
Mar 7	WashingtonAdjEM #98	H	W 85–79	+1.5	W+7.5	146.0	O164	129.7	120.5	65.5
Mar 3	#11IllinoisAdjEM #2	A	L 54–80	+17.5	L−8.5	147.0	U134	78.9	116.9	68.5
Feb 28	NorthwesternAdjEM #65	A	L 62–63	+3.5	W+2.5	142.5	U125	97.3	98.9	63.7
Feb 25	WisconsinAdjEM #64	H	W 85–71	+5.5	W+19.5	153.0	O156	122.8	102.5	69.2
Feb 21	USCAdjEM #74	A	W 71–70	+5.0	W+6.0	149.5	U141	101.3	99.8	70.1
Feb 17	MinnesotaAdjEM #55	H	L 44–61	−3.5	L−20.5	134.5	U105	73.5	101.9	59.9
Feb 14	Penn StateAdjEM #141	H	W 83–72	−6.5	W+4.5	147.0	O155	126.5	109.7	65.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

PepperdineOregon

Efficiency

102.6

110.6

109.0

103.8

71.7

70.1

-1.4

-3.3

Shooting

50.0%

65.9%

58.3%

69.0%

26.7%

38.9%

67.9%

67.6%

42.4%

27.6%

Ball control & glass

17.2%

15.5%

21.2%

16.2%

42.1%

33.3%

31.3%

21.6%

10.6%

11.2%

11.1%

6.9%

Style

45.5%

29.3%

42.4%

58.4%

11.8%

16.2%

41.4%

63.5%

47.2%

41.6%

Roster

2.86

3.07

6'5.4"

6'6.2"

5.1%

19.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Pepperdine

Returning minutes: 5.1%Returning production: 4.3%

Lost

Styles Phipps 34.0 mpg, 13.4 ppg · transferred to Nevada
Aaron Clark 32.3 mpg, 15.3 ppg · transferred to Little Rock
Javon Cooley 30.1 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Danilo Dozic 26.4 mpg, 9.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Yonatan Levy 20.5 mpg, 5.2 ppg · transferred to Chattanooga
Pavle Stosic 15.7 mpg, 3.5 ppg · transferred to FDU

Added

Petar Majstorovic from Long Beach St · 31.1 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
Jahari Williamson from Kent State · 25.1 mpg, 10.3 ppg last season
Youri Fritz from Northeastern · 20.9 mpg, 7.9 ppg last season
Evan Haywood from Butler · 17.6 mpg, 6.5 ppg last season
Ethan Meuser from Stonehill · 12.4 mpg, 3.7 ppg last season
Anthony Robinson from Xavier · 7.9 mpg, 1.8 ppg last season

Returns 5% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Oregon

Returning minutes: 20.7%Returning production: 17.1%

Lost

Takai Simpkins 31.0 mpg, 12.1 ppg · transferred to Lipscomb
Kwame Evans Jr. 29.0 mpg, 12.5 ppg · transferred to Villanova
Nate Bittle 24.3 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Dez Lindsay 20.5 mpg, 5.3 ppg · transferred to Kansas St
Jackson Shelstad 13.1 mpg, 5.8 ppg · transferred to Louisville
Drew Carter 11.6 mpg, 2.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Fred Payne from Boston College · 34.7 mpg, 15.8 ppg last season
Andrew Meadow from Boise St · 30.0 mpg, 12.1 ppg last season
Tyrone Riley IV from San Francisco · 29.9 mpg, 11.5 ppg last season
Taylor Bol Bowen from Alabama · 16.4 mpg, 5.4 ppg last season
Jerry Easter II from USC · 15.7 mpg, 4.0 ppg last season
Pharaoh Compton from San Diego St · 13.8 mpg, 7.5 ppg last season

Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Sun, Nov 15

Niagara at Iowa State · 1:00 PM ET
Harvard at American · 1:00 PM ET
Louisville at Memphis · 1:00 PM ET
Dartmouth at Boston U · 1:00 PM ET
Colgate at Delaware · 1:00 PM ET
Quinnipiac at C Connecticut · 1:00 PM ET
Norfolk St at Georgia St · 1:00 PM ET
Boise St vs Nebraska · 1:00 PM ET
New Hampshire at Boston College · 1:30 PM ET
William & Mary at Michigan · 2:00 PM ET
Princeton at Rhode Island · 2:00 PM ET
Bakersfield at N Dakota St · 2:00 PM ET
UAlbany at Holy Cross · 2:00 PM ET
Temple at La Salle · 2:00 PM ET
SC State at Charleston · 2:00 PM ET
Missouri vs Marquette · 2:30 PM ET
Baylor vs Texas · 3:00 PM ET
Creighton vs Iowa · 3:00 PM ET
High Point at Saint Louis · 3:00 PM ET
Cleveland St at Alabama A&M · 3:00 PM ET
Purdue FW at E Illinois · 3:00 PM ET
Chicago St at LMU · 4:00 PM ET
Mercyhurst at James Madison · 4:00 PM ET
New Mexico St vs San Diego St · 4:00 PM ET
New Haven at Penn State · 4:30 PM ET
W Michigan at S Indiana · 4:30 PM ET
Canisius at Buffalo · 5:30 PM ET
Cal Poly at Montana St · 6:00 PM ET
Syracuse at St John's · 7:00 PM ET
AR-Pine Bluff at USC · 7:00 PM ET
Coastal at Wisconsin · 8:00 PM ET
Texas St at UTSA · 8:00 PM ET
Florida A&M at UTEP · 8:00 PM ET
Alabama St at San José St · 9:00 PM ET

← Sat, Nov 14 · Mon, Nov 16 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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