CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteUnited Center, Chicago, ILLegends Classic
Missouri
Efficiency #67
2025-26: 20-13 · 10-9 conf
vs
Marquette
Efficiency #100
2025-26: 12-20 · 7-14 conf
Sun, Nov 15 · TBD
76.0
win 59%
Projected
73.5
win 41%
No line posted yet.
Model: MIZ −2.5 · total 149.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Marquette 69.5, Missouri 67.7 → 68.9 possessions
+1.3
Marquette offense vs Missouri defense
−1.2
Missouri offense vs Marquette defense
+1.3
Projected total
149.6
Axis starts at 148 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Marquette offense vs Missouri defense
−1.2
Missouri offense vs Marquette defense
−1.3
Missouri by 2.5
2.5
Missouri side ◂▸ Marquette side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Marquette.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Marquette is the faster team (70.1, #91 of 365) and Missouri the slower (68.3, #182). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.6
model
Projected team totals
76.0 / 73.5
Missouri / Marquette
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.7#235
Missouri
69.5#81
Marquette
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageMissouri
Where Missouri scores: the offensive glass
Missouri rebounds 34.9% of its own misses (#48); Marquette lets opponents grab 34.7% of their own misses (#331). Expect about 35.7%, 5.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversMissouri
Missouri turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 19.0% is worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions against Missouri's offense.
DefenseMarquette
Marquette's ball-hawking
Marquette ranks #8 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.9% of Missouri's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Missouri's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Missouri at about 37.1% of its shots from three, Marquette about 43.9%.
ClashMarquette
Style clash: paint scoring
Marquette scores 47.8% of its points in the paint; Missouri protects the paint (35.8% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 41.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
Missouri has the ball
OffenseMarquette allowsvs D1 avg
55.0% #36
50.6% #131
+2.6 pt/100
17.8% #261
19.3% #38
-2.7 pt/100
34.9% #48
34.7% #331
+3.2 pt/100
42.1% #28
32.0% #104
+0.2 pt/100
69.1% #298
—
-0.3 pt/100
Missouri net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.9 pts/100
Marquette has the ball
OffenseMissouri allowsvs D1 avg
50.5% #215
51.5% #183
-0.5 pt/100
16.0% #144
16.5% #186
+0.8 pt/100
29.7% #216
31.7% #238
+0.1 pt/100
32.8% #243
35.5% #193
-0.1 pt/100
67.5% #332
—
-0.4 pt/100
Marquette net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersMissourioffense vsMarquettedefense
Share of shots by zone
Missouri shoots
43.9
7.6
12.5
35.9
Marquette allows
39.3
4.7
16.5
39.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.0%#21 | 60.9%#264 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.8%#247 | 36.3%#95 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.5%#301 | 35.5%#88 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.0%#112 | 32.7%#104 | 33.7% |
Marquetteoffense vsMissouridefense
Share of shots by zone
Marquette shoots
46.1
4.0
7.9
42.0
Missouri allows
32.8
7.0
17.0
43.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.0%#238 | 55.4%#72 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.6%#161 | 39.5%#172 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.3%#306 | 36.2%#116 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.7%#297 | 36.8%#341 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMissouri
+2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#97 of 365
Off reb %
34.9%
#48
Def reb %
68.3%
#238
Turnover %
17.8%
#261
Forced TO %
16.5%
#186
FT rate
42.1%
#28
FT allowed
35.5%
#193
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.5
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn+1.8
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Marquette
+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#137 of 365
Off reb %
29.7%
#216
Def reb %
65.3%
#331
Turnover %
16.0%
#144
Forced TO %
19.3%
#38
FT rate
32.8%
#243
FT allowed
32.0%
#104
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers+1.8
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed+0.8
Missouri has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.0 (#97 of 365) to Marquette’s +1.0 (#137).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Missouri2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Jordan Crawfordat South Dakota | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 31.2 | 14.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 51.7% | 36.8% | 6.5 | 74.5% | 26.1% | |
| 0 | Cord Stansberryat W Carolina | G | Sr | 6'4" | 30-29 | 30.0 | 14.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 43.6% | 29.6% | 6.3 | 80.3% | 30.2% | |
| 4 | Kennard Davis Jr.at BYU | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 29.5 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 50.6% | 32.1% | 5.2 | 75.0% | 16.8% | |
| 15 | Bryson Tillerat Kansas | F | So | 6'11" | 35-31 | 25.9 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 48.0% | 26.9% | 1.5 | 69.4% | 21.3% | |
| 1 | Jamier Jonesat Providence | G | So | 6'6" | 31-19 | 25.7 | 11.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 59.5% | 38.7% | 1.0 | 66.4% | 24.7% | |
| 23 | Jaylen Careyat Tennessee | F | Sr | 6'8" | 37-8 | 18.4 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 48.7% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 49.1% | 27.3% | |
| 11 | Trent Pierce | G | Sr | 6'10" | 20-12 | 28.4 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 59.7% | 38.4% | 5.0 | 75.0% | 19.3% | |
| 45 | Luke Northweather | F | Sr | 6'11" | 20-2 | 12.3 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 61.1% | 41.9% | 1.6 | 57.1% | 12.6% | |
| 7 | Trent Burns | C | Jr | 7'5" | 21-0 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 45.6% | 7.7% | 0.6 | 50.0% | 19.0% | |
| 6 | Annor Boateng | G | Jr | 6'6" | 15-4 | 11.5 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 23.2% | |
| 24 | Nicholas Randall | F | So | 6'9" | 22-0 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 27.8% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 50.0% | 15.5% | |
| 2 | Aaron Rowe | G | So | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Aidan Chronister | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Jason Crowe Jr. | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Toni Bryant | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Jaylen Carey (from Tennessee), Jordan Crawford (from South Dakota), Kennard Davis Jr. (from BYU), Jamier Jones (from Providence), Cord Stansberry (from W Carolina), Bryson Tiller (from Kansas)
Marquette2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Nigel James Jr. | G | Fr | 6'0" | 32-29 | 29.3 | 16.4 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 52.0% | 34.7% | 3.8 | 69.2% | 35.0% | |
| 13 | Royce Parham | F | So | 6'8" | 31-20 | 28.8 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 58.4% | 33.3% | 3.3 | 65.0% | 23.4% | |
| 12 | Ben Gold | F | Sr | 6'11" | 31-26 | 27.3 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 49.3% | 26.4% | 4.5 | 65.3% | 17.8% | |
| 10 | Adrien Stevens | G | Fr | 6'4" | 32-23 | 26.1 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 56.6% | 37.5% | 4.5 | 71.0% | 17.4% | |
| 9 | Damarius Owens | F | So | 6'7" | 30-1 | 15.7 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 47.4% | 27.1% | 2.0 | 71.7% | 19.5% | |
| 18 | Caedin Hamilton | F | So | 6'9" | 32-17 | 13.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 42.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 67.5% | 16.9% | |
| 5 | Tre Norman | G | Jr | 6'4" | 30-0 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 44.1% | 11.1% | 0.3 | 64.5% | 20.5% | |
| 35 | Michael Phillips II | F | Fr | 6'6" | 28-0 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 46.6% | 37.0% | 1.6 | 35.7% | 19.1% | |
| 22 | Sean Jones | G | Jr | 5'10" | 8-3 | 21.4 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 40.6% | 32.1% | 3.5 | 68.8% | 21.5% | |
| 8 | Joshua Clark | F | So | 7'1" | 22-0 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.7% | — | 0.0 | 23.1% | 16.6% | |
| 40 | Casey O'Malley | G | Sr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 14.6% | |
| 42 | Braeden Brenn | F | Fr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 19.3% | |
| 41 | Jonah Lucas | G | Sr | 6'1" | 3-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 19.3% | |
| 21 | Ian Miletic | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Nash Walker | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Sheek Pearson | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Missouri2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Jordan Crawfordat South Dakota | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 31.2 | 14.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 51.7% | 36.8% | 6.5 | 74.5% | 26.1% | |
| 0 | Cord Stansberryat W Carolina | G | Sr | 6'4" | 30-29 | 30.0 | 14.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 43.6% | 29.6% | 6.3 | 80.3% | 30.2% | |
| 4 | Kennard Davis Jr.at BYU | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 29.5 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 50.6% | 32.1% | 5.2 | 75.0% | 16.8% | |
| 15 | Bryson Tillerat Kansas | F | So | 6'11" | 35-31 | 25.9 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 48.0% | 26.9% | 1.5 | 69.4% | 21.3% | |
| 1 | Jamier Jonesat Providence | G | So | 6'6" | 31-19 | 25.7 | 11.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 59.5% | 38.7% | 1.0 | 66.4% | 24.7% | |
| 23 | Jaylen Careyat Tennessee | F | Sr | 6'8" | 37-8 | 18.4 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 48.7% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 49.1% | 27.3% | |
| 11 | Trent Pierce | G | Sr | 6'10" | 20-12 | 28.4 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 59.7% | 38.4% | 5.0 | 75.0% | 19.3% | |
| 45 | Luke Northweather | F | Sr | 6'11" | 20-2 | 12.3 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 61.1% | 41.9% | 1.6 | 57.1% | 12.6% | |
| 7 | Trent Burns | C | Jr | 7'5" | 21-0 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 45.6% | 7.7% | 0.6 | 50.0% | 19.0% | |
| 6 | Annor Boateng | G | Jr | 6'6" | 15-4 | 11.5 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 23.2% | |
| 24 | Nicholas Randall | F | So | 6'9" | 22-0 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 27.8% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 50.0% | 15.5% | |
| 2 | Aaron Rowe | G | So | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Aidan Chronister | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Jason Crowe Jr. | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Toni Bryant | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Jaylen Carey (from Tennessee), Jordan Crawford (from South Dakota), Kennard Davis Jr. (from BYU), Jamier Jones (from Providence), Cord Stansberry (from W Carolina), Bryson Tiller (from Kansas)
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Missouri
Against the spread
Season
14-19
Home
8-10
Road
6-5
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −1.2
Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
17-15-1
Home
11-7
Road
4-6-1
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +3.7
Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20 | #7Miami | N | L 66–80 | +1.0 | L−13.0 | 145.5 | O146 | 98.3 | 119.1 | 67.2 |
| Mar 12 | Kentucky | N | L 72–78 | +3.5 | L−2.5 | 149.5 | O150 | 104.5 | 113.2 | 68.9 |
| Mar 7 | #20Arkansas | H | L 84–88 OT | −2.5 | L−6.5 | 161.5 | O172 | 109.9 | 115.1 | 76.4 |
| Mar 3 | Oklahoma | A | L 64–80 | +1.0 | L−15.0 | 154.0 | U144 | 100.7 | 125.9 | 63.5 |
| Feb 28 | Mississippi St | A | W 88–64 | −1.0 | W+23.0 | 154.5 | U152 | 127.9 | 93.0 | 68.8 |
| Feb 24 | #22Tennessee | H | W 73–69 | +4.0 | W+8.0 | 144.0 | U142 | 111.4 | 105.3 | 65.6 |
| Feb 21 | #20Arkansas | A | L 86–94 | +9.5 | W+1.5 | 159.5 | O180 | 125.7 | 137.4 | 68.4 |
| Feb 18 | #19Vanderbilt | H | W 81–80 | +3.0 | W+4.0 | 155.0 | O161 | 115.9 | 114.5 | 69.9 |
| Feb 14 | Texas | H | L 68–85 | −2.0 | L−19.0 | 150.5 | O153 | 105.4 | 131.8 | 64.5 |
| Feb 11 | Texas A&M | A | W 86–85 | +6.5 | W+7.5 | 160.0 | O171 | 131.0 | 129.5 | 65.6 |
Marquette
Against the spread
Season
11-19-2
Home
6-10-1
Road
5-7
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +5.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-18
Home
6-11
Road
6-6
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −8.2
Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Xavier | N | L 87–89 | −4.0 | L−6.0 | 157.0 | O176 | 113.7 | 116.3 | 76.6 |
| Mar 7 | #4UConn | H | W 68–62 | +10.0 | W+16.0 | 142.5 | U130 | 101.1 | 92.2 | 67.2 |
| Mar 4 | Providence | A | W 78–56 | +4.5 | W+26.5 | 162.0 | U134 | 109.9 | 78.9 | 71.0 |
| Mar 1 | DePaul | H | L 51–62 | −4.5 | L−15.5 | 139.5 | U113 | 80.6 | 98.0 | 63.2 |
| Feb 24 | Georgetown | A | W 76–60 | +2.5 | W+18.5 | 150.5 | U136 | 116.6 | 92.0 | 65.2 |
| Feb 18 | #17St John's | H | L 70–76 | +8.5 | W+2.5 | 157.0 | U146 | 102.2 | 110.9 | 68.5 |
| Feb 14 | Xavier | A | L 88–96 | +2.0 | L−6.0 | 157.5 | O184 | 122.1 | 133.1 | 72.1 |
| Feb 10 | Villanova | A | L 74–77 | +9.5 | W+6.5 | 145.0 | O151 | 105.5 | 109.8 | 70.1 |
| Feb 7 | Butler | H | W 70–55 | −3.5 | W+11.5 | 155.5 | U125 | 104.6 | 82.2 | 66.9 |
| Jan 31 | Seton Hall | A | L 64–69 | +5.5 | W+0.5 | 143.0 | U133 | 102.8 | 110.8 | 62.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMissouriMarquette
Efficiency
114.0
108.7
106.5
104.8
67.7
69.5
—
—
Shooting
55.0%
50.5%
56.4%
52.7%
35.0%
31.7%
69.1%
67.5%
42.1%
32.8%
Ball control & glass
17.8%
16.0%
16.5%
19.3%
34.9%
29.7%
31.7%
34.7%
9.6%
9.7%
9.7%
10.0%
Style
36.4%
42.2%
48.3%
47.8%
14.1%
19.5%
51.2%
58.1%
32.1%
29.0%
Roster
3.39
2.02
6'6.9"
6'5.9"
19.4%
79.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMissouri
Returning minutes: 19.4%Returning production: 13.8%
Lost
- Mark Mitchell Jr. 33.8 mpg, 18.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Anthony Robinson II 27.0 mpg, 8.9 ppg · transferred to Florida St
- Jayden Stone 23.6 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- T.O. Barrett 22.8 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jacob Crews 20.7 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Shawn Phillips Jr. 19.3 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jordan Crawford from South Dakota · 31.2 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
- Cord Stansberry from W Carolina · 29.1 mpg, 13.7 ppg last season
- Kennard Davis Jr. from BYU · 27.0 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season
- Bryson Tiller from Kansas · 25.9 mpg, 7.9 ppg last season
- Jamier Jones from Providence · 24.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
- Jaylen Carey from Tennessee · 18.4 mpg, 7.4 ppg last season
Returns 19% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Marquette
Returning minutes: 79.8%Returning production: 78.7%
Lost
- Chase Ross 32.9 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Zaide Lowery 8.0 mpg, 2.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Sheek Pearson no D1 minutes last season
- Nash Walker no D1 minutes last season
- Ian Miletic no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 80% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.