Norfolk State Spartans vs Georgia State Panthers basketball preview & prediction

Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET · GSU Convocation Center, Atlanta, GA

Non-conferenceESPN+GSU Convocation Center, Atlanta, GA

Norfolk St

2-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #314

Georgia St

1-2 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #285

Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Norfolk St is the faster team (72.8, #116 of 365) and Georgia St the slower (69.0, #236). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.2

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.6#178

Norfolk St

71.1#143

Georgia St

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Georgia St has the ball+10.8

Norfolk St has the ball+1.4

Georgia St has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 51.3% #165 · NORF allows 67.5% #351+9.5

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.7% #138 · NORF forces 16.5% #228 · ~12 turnovers+1.7

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 29.7% #259 · NORF allows 42.9% #240 · FT 54.3% #343−1.0

✓Wins second chancesOR% 24.7% #286 · NORF allows 44.1% #339+0.6

Norfolk St has the ball

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 11.0% #13 · GAST forces 16.7% #222 · ~9 turnovers+4.5

✗Few second chancesOR% 24.4% #290 · GAST allows 32.3% #200−2.0

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 42.6% #295 · GAST allows 55.4% #264−1.9

✓Gets to the lineFTR 47.5% #68 · GAST allows 42.0% #234 · FT 72.4% #139+0.8

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Norfolk Stoffense vsGeorgia Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Norfolk St shoots

31.7

14.6

39.0

Georgia St allows

48.2

8.0

8.9

34.8

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.8%#235	64.8%#260	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	16.7%#299	33.3%#125	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	16.7%#298	30.0%#128	34.7%
Three	33.3%#158	35.9%#255	32.5%

Georgia Stoffense vsNorfolk Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Georgia St shoots

27.4

11.1

13.7

47.9

Norfolk St allows

43.5

6.5

2.2

47.8

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	40.6%#338	70.0%#303	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.5%#161	33.3%#125	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	50.0%#45	0.0%#1	34.7%
Three	41.1%#53	44.1%#334	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Norfolk St

−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#194 of 365

Off reb %

24.4%

#290

Def reb %

55.9%

#339

Turnover %

11.0%

#13

Forced TO %

16.5%

#228

FT rate

47.5%

#68

FT allowed

42.9%

#240

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.4

Defensive rebounding−4.2

Ball security+5.1

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn+2.6

Foul shots allowed−1.3

Georgia St

−5.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#255 of 365

Off reb %

24.7%

#286

Def reb %

67.7%

#200

Turnover %

16.7%

#138

Forced TO %

16.7%

#222

FT rate

29.7%

#259

FT allowed

42.0%

#234

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.3

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers−1.0

Foul shots drawn−2.0

Foul shots allowed−1.0

Norfolk St has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.1 (#194 of 365) to Georgia St’s −5.4 (#255).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Norfolk St2026-27 numbers

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage	Status
9	G	Jr	6'4"	3-3	31.7	16.3	4.3	3.3	1.7	43.1%	25.0%	1.3	85.7%	28.0%	Active
33	G	Fr	6'1"	3-3	24.7	2.0	1.3	0.7	0.7	20.0%	18.2%	3.7	—	13.1%	Active
6	G	Sr	6'6"	3-3	24.0	11.0	3.3	1.0	1.0	46.7%	31.6%	6.3	83.3%	27.7%	Active
3	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	23.7	6.7	0.7	2.7	2.0	59.4%	50.0%	0.7	16.7%	19.9%	Active
23	G	Fr	6'3"	3-3	22.3	14.0	3.7	2.3	1.7	48.8%	25.0%	4.0	37.5%	41.3%	Active
21	F	Sr	6'10"	3-3	20.3	8.7	7.3	0.3	1.3	71.4%	—	0.0	75.0%	20.4%	Active
13	G	Fr	6'5"	3-0	16.3	1.7	2.3	1.0	1.0	25.0%	33.3%	1.0	50.0%	12.4%	Active
35	G	Sr	6'6"	3-0	16.3	7.3	4.0	1.0	0.7	53.1%	35.7%	4.7	62.5%	25.3%	Active
15	C	Fr	6'9"	3-0	15.0	3.3	3.0	0.3	0.7	55.6%	—	0.0	—	13.8%	Active
5	F	Sr	6'8"	1-0	16.0	6.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	25.0%	33.3%	3.0	75.0%	27.1%	Active

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Norfolk St

Against the spread

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-1

avg cover −20.0

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg vs total +19.5

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 8	William & MaryAdjEM #106	A	L 73–104	+11.0	L−20.0	157.5	O177	100.3	142.9	72.8
Nov 4	Randolph Wildcats	H	W 78–71	—	—	—	—	103.4	94.2	75.4
Nov 2	Regent Regent Royals	H	W 68–45	—	—	—	—	106.2	70.3	64.0
Mar 12	SC StateAdjEM #300	N	L 82–88	−8.5	L−14.5	144.5	O170	108.6	116.6	75.5
Mar 5	HowardAdjEM #170	H	L 76–84	+6.5	L−1.5	148.5	O160	109.8	121.4	69.2
Mar 2	Morgan StAdjEM #325	A	L 84–90	−3.5	L−9.5	157.0	O174	111.4	119.4	75.4
Feb 28	Coppin StAdjEM #360	A	W 75–69	−8.0	L−2.0	141.5	O144	113.6	104.5	66.0
Feb 21	SC StateAdjEM #300	H	W 90–71	−10.0	W+9.0	140.5	O161	126.1	99.5	71.4
Feb 16	MD EasternAdjEM #323	A	W 70–66	−2.0	W+2.0	136.5	U136	118.5	111.7	59.1
Feb 14	Delaware StAdjEM #342	H	W 75–58	−9.0	W+8.0	134.0	U133	119.1	92.1	63.0

Georgia St

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

0-1

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-1

avg cover −2.5

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

0-1

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total −6.2

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 7	Andrew Fighting Tigers	H	W 111–61	—	—	—	—	143.7	79.0	77.2
Nov 5	CharlotteAdjEM #146	A	L 67–77	+11.5	W+1.5	143.5	O144	100.1	115.0	66.9
Nov 2	Bowling GreenAdjEM #127	H	L 73–76	−3.5	L−6.5	162.0	U149	102.8	107.0	71.0
Mar 3	LouisianaAdjEM #313	N	L 75–84	−1.0	L−10.0	134.0	O159	108.3	121.3	69.3
Feb 27	Old DominionAdjEM #147	H	L 73–81	+1.0	L−7.0	149.5	O154	99.1	109.9	73.7
Feb 24	CoastalAdjEM #292	H	L 71–76	+1.0	L−4.0	141.0	O147	105.9	113.3	67.1
Feb 21	James MadisonAdjEM #187	H	L 65–80	+2.5	L−12.5	142.5	O145	97.0	119.4	67.0
Feb 19	GA SouthernAdjEM #207	H	W 66–64	+1.0	W+3.0	155.0	U130	96.2	93.3	68.6
Feb 14	Old DominionAdjEM #147	A	L 55–78	+4.0	L−19.0	147.0	U133	85.2	120.8	64.6
Feb 12	James MadisonAdjEM #187	A	L 79–81 OT	+6.0	W+4.0	144.0	O160	106.8	109.5	74.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Norfolk StGeorgia St

Efficiency

101.7

99.6

112.8

107.5

70.6

71.1

5.7

1.8

Shooting

42.6%

51.3%

37.8%

41.9%

33.3%

41.1%

72.4%

54.3%

47.5%

29.7%

Ball control & glass

11.0%

16.7%

16.5%

16.7%

24.4%

24.7%

44.1%

32.3%

5.5%

9.4%

8.1%

6.5%

Style

39.3%

47.5%

32.9%

28.6%

16.4%

7.9%

72.7%

44.9%

38.4%

21.2%

Roster

2.31

3.25

6'5"

6'4.1"

0.5%

2.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Norfolk St

Returning minutes: 7.0%Returning production: 5.2%

Lost

Anthony McComb III 34.2 mpg, 17.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Elijah Jamison 27.4 mpg, 14.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Devon Ellis 27.3 mpg, 11.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jordan Leaks 23.5 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Keyontae Lewis 17.3 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
My'kel Jenkins 15.9 mpg, 4.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Jahki Gupton from Saint Peter's · 24.5 mpg, 7.8 ppg last season
Bahsil Laster from UT Arlington · 19.3 mpg, 7.3 ppg last season
Brandon Gardner from Sacramento St · 8.0 mpg, 2.1 ppg last season
J.C. Riley Jr. from N'Western St · 7.2 mpg, 2.3 ppg last season
Miles Mitchell no D1 minutes last season
Jamese Jordan no D1 minutes last season

Returns 7% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Georgia St

Returning minutes: 2.4%Returning production: 2.1%

Lost

Malachi Brown 31.0 mpg, 12.3 ppg · transferred to W Carolina
Micah Tucker 30.6 mpg, 13.1 ppg · transferred to Grand Canyon
Jelani Hamilton 26.3 mpg, 15.0 ppg · transferred to FAU
Anthony Enoh 20.8 mpg, 4.7 ppg · transferred to Kennesaw St
Joah Chappelle 20.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg · transferred to Tulane
Ayouba Berthe 16.9 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Jaden Jackson from S Dakota St · 32.1 mpg, 12.3 ppg last season
Eric Parnell from FDU · 25.7 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
Jacob Meyer from UAB · 24.9 mpg, 10.8 ppg last season
Terrance Dixon Jr. from Southern · 20.5 mpg, 9.0 ppg last season
Jacolb Fredson-Cole from McNeese · 18.7 mpg, 5.5 ppg last season
Zion Wilburn from Samford · 16.0 mpg, 4.3 ppg last season

Returns 2% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (5 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Sun, Nov 15

Niagara at Iowa State · 1:00 PM ET
Harvard at American · 1:00 PM ET
Louisville at Memphis · 1:00 PM ET
Dartmouth at Boston U · 1:00 PM ET
Colgate at Delaware · 1:00 PM ET
Quinnipiac at C Connecticut · 1:00 PM ET
Boise St vs Nebraska · 1:00 PM ET
New Hampshire at Boston College · 1:30 PM ET
William & Mary at Michigan · 2:00 PM ET
Princeton at Rhode Island · 2:00 PM ET
Bakersfield at N Dakota St · 2:00 PM ET
UAlbany at Holy Cross · 2:00 PM ET
Temple at La Salle · 2:00 PM ET
SC State at Charleston · 2:00 PM ET
Missouri vs Marquette · 2:30 PM ET
Baylor vs Texas · 3:00 PM ET
Creighton vs Iowa · 3:00 PM ET
High Point at Saint Louis · 3:00 PM ET
Cleveland St at Alabama A&M · 3:00 PM ET
Purdue FW at E Illinois · 3:00 PM ET
Chicago St at LMU · 4:00 PM ET
Mercyhurst at James Madison · 4:00 PM ET
New Mexico St vs San Diego St · 4:00 PM ET
New Haven at Penn State · 4:30 PM ET
W Michigan at S Indiana · 4:30 PM ET
Pepperdine at Oregon · 5:00 PM ET
Canisius at Buffalo · 5:30 PM ET
Cal Poly at Montana St · 6:00 PM ET
Syracuse at St John's · 7:00 PM ET
AR-Pine Bluff at USC · 7:00 PM ET
Coastal at Wisconsin · 8:00 PM ET
Texas St at UTSA · 8:00 PM ET
Florida A&M at UTEP · 8:00 PM ET
Alabama St at San José St · 9:00 PM ET

← Sat, Nov 14 · Mon, Nov 16 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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