CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceKohl Center, Madison, WI

Coastal

Efficiency #241

2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf

Wisconsin

Efficiency #28

2025-26: 24-11 · 16-7 conf

Sun, Nov 15 · TBD

67.2

win 9%

Projected

82.6

win 91%

No line posted yet.

Model: WIS −15.3 · total 149.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Wisconsin 69.2, Coastal 68.1 → 69.0 possessions

+1.5

Wisconsin offense vs Coastal defense

+5.7

Coastal offense vs Wisconsin defense

−5.6

Projected total

149.8

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Wisconsin offense vs Coastal defense

+5.7

Coastal offense vs Wisconsin defense

+5.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Wisconsin by 15.3

15.3

Coastal side ◂▸ Wisconsin side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Wisconsin.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Wisconsin is the faster team (69.0, #151 of 365) and Coastal the slower (68.3, #189). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

149.8

model

Projected team totals

67.2 / 82.6

Coastal / Wisconsin

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.1#200

Coastal

69.2#107

Wisconsin

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageWisconsin

Where Wisconsin scores: ball control

Wisconsin turns it over on 12.8% of possessions (#4); Coastal forces turnovers on 12.3% of opponent possessions (#364). Expect about 11.7%, 5.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.3 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageCoastal

Where Coastal scores: ball control

Coastal turns it over on 15.2% of possessions (#82); Wisconsin forces turnovers on 14.3% of opponent possessions (#328). Expect about 14.3%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions.

ClashWisconsin

Style clash: 3-point volume

Wisconsin takes 52.1% of its shots from three; Coastal runs teams off the line (35.7% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 47.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

GlassCoastal

Coastal gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.9% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Coastal's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Wisconsin) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Coastal at about 43.1% of its shots from three, Wisconsin about 47.2%.

ClashWisconsin

Style clash: ball movement

Wisconsin assists on 57.3% of its made baskets; Coastal breaks up passing offenses (assists on 37.7% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 46.0% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

Coastal has the ball

OffenseWisconsin allowsvs D1 avg

47.9% #314

51.4% #178

-2.7 pt/100

15.2% #82

14.3% #328

+3.1 pt/100

26.9% #296

28.2% #74

-2.1 pt/100

32.3% #254

29.8% #56

-0.5 pt/100

73.1% #165

—

+0.1 pt/100

Coastal net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.3 pts/100

Wisconsin has the ball

OffenseCoastal allowsvs D1 avg

54.5% #52

46.8% #18

-0.6 pt/100

12.8% #4

12.3% #364

+6.3 pt/100

29.1% #232

27.6% #52

-1.4 pt/100

31.5% #267

34.9% #174

-0.2 pt/100

78.8% #6

—

+0.6 pt/100

Wisconsin net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Coastaloffense vsWisconsindefense

Share of shots by zone

Coastal shoots

30.7

5.3

21.1

42.9

Wisconsin allows

34.2

7.5

18.0

40.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.7%#324	58.9%#187	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.3%#215	47.1%#333	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.6%#245	41.4%#286	38.0%
Three	33.5%#196	33.4%#151	33.7%

Wisconsinoffense vsCoastaldefense

Share of shots by zone

Wisconsin shoots

33.3

6.0

9.1

51.6

Coastal allows

33.4

5.7

25.7

35.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.8%#99	48.8%#3	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.7%#27	45.2%#302	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.6%#126	38.9%#198	38.0%
Three	36.2%#50	32.8%#105	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Coastal

−2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#291 of 365

Off reb %

26.9%

#296

Def reb %

72.4%

#52

Turnover %

15.2%

#82

Forced TO %

12.3%

#364

FT rate

32.3%

#254

FT allowed

34.9%

#174

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding+1.0

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers−3.0

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+0.1

Wisconsin

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#108 of 365

Off reb %

29.1%

#232

Def reb %

71.8%

#74

Turnover %

12.8%

Forced TO %

14.3%

#328

FT rate

31.5%

#267

FT allowed

29.8%

#56

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.8

Ball security+2.7

Forcing turnovers−1.7

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed+1.4

Wisconsin has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#108 of 365) to Coastal’s −2.7 (#291).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Coastal2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Coastal's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Rasheed Jones	G	Jr	6'6"	32-32	36.2	14.8	4.6	2.9	1.5	49.1%	36.7%	6.1	80.7%	24.8%
0	AJ Dancler	G	Jr	6'2"	32-32	33.2	15.6	5.5	2.1	1.5	49.6%	39.3%	6.3	75.7%	28.5%
5	Joshua Beadle	G	Sr	6'3"	32-32	32.2	17.8	3.9	2.9	2.6	46.2%	26.3%	3.7	79.7%	35.8%
21	Reggie Hill	F	Sr	6'7"	31-30	25.2	6.6	5.8	0.8	1.4	45.3%	35.1%	3.6	72.1%	19.2%
4	Nadjrick Peat	F	Sr	6'10"	32-32	23.1	4.3	5.7	0.1	1.1	68.6%	—	0.0	63.5%	10.6%
1	Tristan Thompson	G	Fr	6'5"	32-0	19.5	4.0	4.2	0.8	0.8	43.2%	16.1%	1.0	65.1%	14.9%
3	DaJohn Craig	G	So	6'1"	32-0	12.6	4.5	1.5	0.4	0.5	53.5%	37.2%	2.9	88.9%	20.9%
15	Derrick Green	F	So	6'9"	31-0	10.6	2.1	2.9	0.2	0.4	65.7%	—	0.0	43.2%	12.4%
14	Jerry Ngopot	F	Sr	6'10"	24-2	8.5	2.2	2.3	0.1	0.2	41.4%	28.1%	1.3	0.0%	19.2%
13	Braeden MacVicar	F	So	6'11"	23-0	7.5	2.7	2.1	0.1	0.3	43.3%	29.6%	2.3	68.8%	25.1%
11	Jackson Keil	G	Sr	6'2"	6-0	3.7	0.7	0.3	0.5	0.5	25.0%	0.0%	0.5	100.0%	17.8%
30	Charles Dunlap	G	Sr	6'2"	3-0	4.0	1.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	8.1%
20	Connor Martin	F	Jr	6'4"	3-0	3.7	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.3	—	17.7%
7	Andre Mulibea	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Devin Brown	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Wisconsin2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
31	Nolan Winter	F	Jr	7'0"	31-30	30.7	13.1	8.5	1.5	0.8	62.6%	32.6%	3.1	74.2%	20.5%
7	Andrew Rohde	G	Sr	6'6"	34-34	26.5	5.7	2.1	2.9	1.1	47.8%	31.8%	3.9	77.8%	15.0%
32	Aleksas Bieliauskas	F	Fr	6'10"	35-28	20.1	4.9	4.4	0.9	0.8	52.8%	34.6%	2.3	63.3%	15.4%
22	Austin Rapp	F	So	6'10"	30-12	23.2	9.7	4.0	1.6	0.8	54.6%	36.3%	5.3	85.4%	22.9%
0	Braeden Carrington	G	Sr	6'5"	34-0	18.0	8.3	2.4	1.1	0.5	57.5%	40.1%	5.1	77.2%	23.9%
5	Jack Janicki	G	So	6'5"	26-1	16.5	2.2	2.0	1.1	0.6	42.3%	27.7%	1.8	60.0%	11.0%
23	Will Garlock	F	Fr	7'0"	30-0	6.7	1.1	1.1	0.7	0.4	72.2%	—	0.0	40.0%	10.3%
13	Hayden Jones	G	Fr	6'6"	27-1	7.2	1.7	1.0	0.4	0.5	63.5%	50.0%	0.1	54.5%	15.2%
4	Zach Kinziger	G	Fr	6'3"	14-0	5.5	1.5	0.3	0.6	0.1	40.0%	25.0%	1.1	50.0%	20.1%
11	Jack Robison	F	So	6'6"	16-0	2.0	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.3	93.8%	75.0%	0.3	66.7%	23.7%
18	Riccardo Greppi	F	So	6'10"	14-0	1.3	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	0.0%	28.3%
15	Isaac Gard	G	Sr	6'3"	14-0	1.1	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.1	64.3%	50.0%	0.4	100.0%	35.1%
6	Elijah Gray	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Coastal2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Coastal's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Rasheed Jones	G	Jr	6'6"	32-32	36.2	14.8	4.6	2.9	1.5	49.1%	36.7%	6.1	80.7%	24.8%
0	AJ Dancler	G	Jr	6'2"	32-32	33.2	15.6	5.5	2.1	1.5	49.6%	39.3%	6.3	75.7%	28.5%
5	Joshua Beadle	G	Sr	6'3"	32-32	32.2	17.8	3.9	2.9	2.6	46.2%	26.3%	3.7	79.7%	35.8%
21	Reggie Hill	F	Sr	6'7"	31-30	25.2	6.6	5.8	0.8	1.4	45.3%	35.1%	3.6	72.1%	19.2%
4	Nadjrick Peat	F	Sr	6'10"	32-32	23.1	4.3	5.7	0.1	1.1	68.6%	—	0.0	63.5%	10.6%
1	Tristan Thompson	G	Fr	6'5"	32-0	19.5	4.0	4.2	0.8	0.8	43.2%	16.1%	1.0	65.1%	14.9%
3	DaJohn Craig	G	So	6'1"	32-0	12.6	4.5	1.5	0.4	0.5	53.5%	37.2%	2.9	88.9%	20.9%
15	Derrick Green	F	So	6'9"	31-0	10.6	2.1	2.9	0.2	0.4	65.7%	—	0.0	43.2%	12.4%
14	Jerry Ngopot	F	Sr	6'10"	24-2	8.5	2.2	2.3	0.1	0.2	41.4%	28.1%	1.3	0.0%	19.2%
13	Braeden MacVicar	F	So	6'11"	23-0	7.5	2.7	2.1	0.1	0.3	43.3%	29.6%	2.3	68.8%	25.1%
11	Jackson Keil	G	Sr	6'2"	6-0	3.7	0.7	0.3	0.5	0.5	25.0%	0.0%	0.5	100.0%	17.8%
30	Charles Dunlap	G	Sr	6'2"	3-0	4.0	1.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	8.1%
20	Connor Martin	F	Jr	6'4"	3-0	3.7	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.3	—	17.7%
7	Andre Mulibea	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Devin Brown	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Coastal

Against the spread

Season

17-13-1

Home

6-5-1

Road

10-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover −0.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

18-13

Home

6-6

Road

11-6

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.1

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	N	L 72–96	−1.0	L−25.0	150.5	O168	105.7	140.9	68.1
Feb 27	James MadisonAdjEM #206	A	W 69–68	+6.0	W+7.0	142.0	U137	108.6	107.0	63.5
Feb 24	Georgia StAdjEM #310	A	W 76–71	−1.0	W+4.0	141.0	O147	113.3	105.9	67.1
Feb 21	MarshallAdjEM #175	H	W 79–75	+2.5	W+6.5	153.5	O154	104.8	99.5	75.3
Feb 18	James MadisonAdjEM #206	H	L 65–67	+1.0	L−1.0	141.5	U132	99.1	102.2	65.6
Feb 12	LouisianaAdjEM #318	A	W 69–65	−1.0	W+3.0	132.0	O134	98.7	93.0	69.9
Feb 7	UMassAdjEM #184	H	W 94–91 3OT	+2.5	W+5.5	148.5	O185	112.2	108.6	83.8
Feb 4	Arkansas StAdjEM #132	H	L 66–70	+5.0	W+1.0	151.5	U136	94.3	100.0	70.0
Feb 1	UL MonroeAdjEM #351	A	W 83–79	−9.0	L−5.0	145.0	O162	124.4	118.4	66.7
Jan 29	South AlabamaAdjEM #188	A	L 48–53	+3.5	L−1.5	140.0	U101	80.0	88.3	60.0

Wisconsin

Against the spread

Season

20-14-1

Home

10-6-1

Road

7-4

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +2.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

22-13

Home

10-7

Road

8-3

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +3.1

Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#12High PointAdjEM #50	N	L 82–83	−10.0	L−11.0	161.5	O165	112.3	113.7	73.0
Mar 14	#3MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 65–68	+12.5	W+9.5	161.5	U133	96.2	100.7	67.5
Mar 13	#9IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	W 91–88 OT	+8.0	W+11.0	157.0	O179	121.0	117.0	75.2
Mar 12	WashingtonAdjEM #59	N	W 85–82	−6.5	L−3.5	156.5	O167	128.5	124.0	66.2
Mar 7	#15PurdueAdjEM #9	A	W 97–93	+9.5	W+13.5	154.0	O190	147.6	141.5	65.7
Mar 4	MarylandAdjEM #198	H	W 78–45	−14.5	W+18.5	153.5	U123	135.0	77.9	57.8
Feb 28	WashingtonAdjEM #59	A	W 90–73	−2.5	W+14.5	153.5	O163	127.7	103.6	70.5
Feb 25	OregonAdjEM #143	A	L 71–85	−5.5	L−19.5	153.0	O156	102.5	122.8	69.2
Feb 22	IowaAdjEM #22	H	W 84–71	−3.5	W+9.5	147.0	O155	130.5	110.3	64.4
Feb 17	Ohio StateAdjEM #31	A	L 69–86	+1.0	L−16.0	157.5	U155	100.3	125.0	68.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

CoastalWisconsin

Efficiency

103.8

118.0

107.3

105.0

68.1

69.2

—

Shooting

47.9%

54.5%

46.1%

54.7%

33.5%

36.2%

73.1%

78.8%

32.3%

31.5%

Ball control & glass

15.2%

12.8%

12.3%

14.3%

26.9%

29.1%

27.6%

28.2%

7.9%

6.6%

7.6%

12.5%

Style

43.1%

52.1%

34.5%

36.2%

10.3%

12.9%

40.4%

57.3%

26.8%

28.3%

Roster

3.10

2.59

6'5.4"

6'8.3"

—

68.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Coastal

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Coastal's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Wisconsin

Returning minutes: 68.1%Returning production: 58.3%

Lost

John Blackwell 32.8 mpg, 18.6 ppg · transferred to Duke
Nick Boyd 32.0 mpg, 20.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Elijah Gray no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 68% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.